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Data regarding grabbing top 5 QB (1 Viewer)

ppierce

Footballguy
So i just ran some basic numbers from the 08,09,10,11 seasons regarding how the average points for the season for the top 5 QB's compare to the average points for the next 7 QB's. Its a 12 team league so if you weren't starting one of the top 12 qb's, i'm not sure what to tell you.

Its a ppr league where qb td passes are worth 4 points. Everything else is pretty basic.

2011

Top 5 401.9

Bottom 7 261.51

Difference 140.4

2010

Top 5 300.4

Bot. 7 247.2

Diff. 53.2

2009

Top 5 303.5

Bottom 7 250.07

Diff. 53.43

2008

Top 5 290.4

Bottom 7 216.72

Diff. 73.68

So what does that mean? The avg difference the past 4 years between the top 5 qb's and the bottom 7 is 80.17 points for the year or around 5 per game. I think thats a fairly significant number. However, to really compare you'd have to run those numerbs vs the opportunity cost of missing out on taking a rb or wr and what their averages are. Which i'm not doing.

 
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I think most people expect a significant regression to the mean for passing stats this year. Last year was way out of line with historic averages, even after you factor in the general trend of increasing passing numbers. When you're doing these VAR calculations, here are a few things I'd suggest looking at:

1) Why have you broken down the QBs into groups of 5 and 7? Is this how your tiers are? You're assuming that if you don't get one of the top 5 QBs, you'll get one of the next 7, but choosing between Rodgers and Eli Manning is a lot different than choosing between Cam Newton and Matt Ryan.

2) These are the players that finished in the top 12 in previous years, but you don't know who those players will be before the season starts. It might be more useful to look at the top 5 QBs by ADP (or some experts' pre-draft rankings or whatever) and average their subsequent year's performance. I think this would be more relevant to drafting, where you don't know how players will finish.

3) For these numbers to be useful you need to compare them to something, like VAR for other positions. Do a similar calculation for RB and it will tell you, very roughly, which group should have been drafted first that year.

 
As a follow up. I believe the best way to capitalize on my above data is to draft either Cam Newton (if you like him, i don't), or Matt Ryan in the 3rd round in 12 team leagues.

I know this is high for Ryan but i believe he will finish top 5 this year and a lot of people are in aggreance with me. It is early for Ryan based on ADP BUT if you don't take him in the 3rd, especially if you draft early in the 3rd, chances are you wont see him again late in the 4th round.

The reason i say snag Ryan in the 3rd and not Stafford in the 2nd or Brady, Brees or Rodgers in the 1st is b/c you will still get top 5 performance, whcih i've shown above is very important, yet you will still be able to get great rb's or wr's in the 1st and 2nd and not spend those picks on a QB. Best of both worlds IMO.

 
I think most people expect a significant regression to the mean for passing stats this year. Last year was way out of line with historic averages, even after you factor in the general trend of increasing passing numbers. When you're doing these VAR calculations, here are a few things I'd suggest looking at:1) Why have you broken down the QBs into groups of 5 and 7? Is this how your tiers are? You're assuming that if you don't get one of the top 5 QBs, you'll get one of the next 7, but choosing between Rodgers and Eli Manning is a lot different than choosing between Cam Newton and Matt Ryan.2) These are the players that finished in the top 12 in previous years, but you don't know who those players will be before the season starts. It might be more useful to look at the top 5 QBs by ADP (or some experts' pre-draft rankings or whatever) and average their subsequent year's performance. I think this would be more relevant to drafting, where you don't know how players will finish.3) For these numbers to be useful you need to compare them to something, like VAR for other positions. Do a similar calculation for RB and it will tell you, very roughly, which group should have been drafted first that year.
You are absolutely correct. As i said, to be a lot more accurate more calcuatlions would need to be done and I'm not really wanting to do that. With that said, i scanned over the numbers of the top 5 qbs over the past 5-6 years and the only real outlier that would of skewed the top 5 would have been Brady's record breaking season where he was like 200 points higher then the #2 QB. Besides for that season, most of the top 5 are within a small number of points from eachotehr.Again, loose stats. Just something to kick around.
 
I think most people expect a significant regression to the mean for passing stats this year. Last year was way out of line with historic averages, even after you factor in the general trend of increasing passing numbers. When you're doing these VAR calculations, here are a few things I'd suggest looking at:

1) Why have you broken down the QBs into groups of 5 and 7? Is this how your tiers are? You're assuming that if you don't get one of the top 5 QBs, you'll get one of the next 7, but choosing between Rodgers and Eli Manning is a lot different than choosing between Cam Newton and Matt Ryan.

2) These are the players that finished in the top 12 in previous years, but you don't know who those players will be before the season starts. It might be more useful to look at the top 5 QBs by ADP (or some experts' pre-draft rankings or whatever) and average their subsequent year's performance. I think this would be more relevant to drafting, where you don't know how players will finish.

3) For these numbers to be useful you need to compare them to something, like VAR for other positions. Do a similar calculation for RB and it will tell you, very roughly, which group should have been drafted first that year.
predicting top 5 qb's has proven to be a lot easier than predicting top 5 rb, te and wr's.

 
As a follow up. I believe the best way to capitalize on my above data is to draft either Cam Newton (if you like him, i don't), or Matt Ryan in the 3rd round in 12 team leagues.I know this is high for Ryan but i believe he will finish top 5 this year and a lot of people are in aggreance with me. It is early for Ryan based on ADP BUT if you don't take him in the 3rd, especially if you draft early in the 3rd, chances are you wont see him again late in the 4th round. The reason i say snag Ryan in the 3rd and not Stafford in the 2nd or Brady, Brees or Rodgers in the 1st is b/c you will still get top 5 performance, whcih i've shown above is very important, yet you will still be able to get great rb's or wr's in the 1st and 2nd and not spend those picks on a QB. Best of both worlds IMO.
I like this in theory but not all drafts work out like this. Matt Ryan got drafted in our 2nd round in our draft last night
 
As a follow up. I believe the best way to capitalize on my above data is to draft either Cam Newton (if you like him, i don't), or Matt Ryan in the 3rd round in 12 team leagues.I know this is high for Ryan but i believe he will finish top 5 this year and a lot of people are in aggreance with me. It is early for Ryan based on ADP BUT if you don't take him in the 3rd, especially if you draft early in the 3rd, chances are you wont see him again late in the 4th round. The reason i say snag Ryan in the 3rd and not Stafford in the 2nd or Brady, Brees or Rodgers in the 1st is b/c you will still get top 5 performance, whcih i've shown above is very important, yet you will still be able to get great rb's or wr's in the 1st and 2nd and not spend those picks on a QB. Best of both worlds IMO.
I like this in theory but not all drafts work out like this. Matt Ryan got drafted in our 2nd round in our draft last night
at that point what are you gonna do? taking ryan in 2nd is too early.
 
Using FFC ADP data...

in 2011 3 of the top 5 drafted QBs finished as a top 5 QB

in 2010 3 of the top 5 " "

in 2009 3 of the top 5 " "

in 2008 1 of the top 5 " "

 
Using FFC ADP data...in 2011 3 of the top 5 drafted QBs finished as a top 5 QBin 2010 3 of the top 5 " "in 2009 3 of the top 5 " "in 2008 1 of the top 5 " "
so on avgerage 50% of the time in the past 4 years. i don't know the #'s for rb and wr but i imagine its much lower.
 
So i just ran some basic numbers from the 08,09,10,11 seasons regarding how the average points for the season for the top 5 QB's compare to the average points for the next 7 QB's. Its a 12 team league so if you weren't starting one of the top 12 qb's, i'm not sure what to tell you.

Its a ppr league where qb td passes are worth 4 points. Everything else is pretty basic.

2011

Top 5 401.9

Bottom 7 261.51

Difference 140.4

2010

Top 5 300.4

Bot. 7 247.2

Diff. 53.2

2009

Top 5 303.5

Bottom 7 250.07

Diff. 53.43

2008

Top 5 290.4

Bottom 7 216.72

Diff. 73.68

So what does that mean? The avg difference the past 4 years between the top 5 qb's and the bottom 7 is 80.17 points for the year or around 5 per game. I think thats a fairly significant number. However, to really compare you'd have to run those numerbs vs the opportunity cost of missing out on taking a rb or wr and what their averages are. Which i'm not doing.
What this means is that if you know ahead of time a position is going to be three times as important this year as it was the previous year, you'd be well advised to pick the best player at that position early in your draft.In practice, since you can't know either that such a leap in the value gap will occur, or who that mythical best player will be, this is nothing but an academic exercise. The best plan on draft day remains: "try to take the best values in a way that will let you build a good team."

 
As a follow up. I believe the best way to capitalize on my above data is to draft either Cam Newton (if you like him, i don't), or Matt Ryan in the 3rd round in 12 team leagues.

I know this is high for Ryan but i believe he will finish top 5 this year and a lot of people are in aggreance with me. It is early for Ryan based on ADP BUT if you don't take him in the 3rd, especially if you draft early in the 3rd, chances are you wont see him again late in the 4th round.

The reason i say snag Ryan in the 3rd and not Stafford in the 2nd or Brady, Brees or Rodgers in the 1st is b/c you will still get top 5 performance, whcih i've shown above is very important, yet you will still be able to get great rb's or wr's in the 1st and 2nd and not spend those picks on a QB. Best of both worlds IMO.
I like this in theory but not all drafts work out like this. Matt Ryan got drafted in our 2nd round in our draft last night
at that point what are you gonna do? taking ryan in 2nd is too early.
I would agree, except in my local I drafted 11th, and the QBs were flying off the board:4 Aaron Rodgers, GB QB

5 Drew Brees, NO QB

6 Tom Brady, NE QB

10 Cam Newton, Car QB

12 Matthew Stafford, Det QB

14 Matt Ryan, Atl QB  <---Me

16 Eli Manning, NYG QB

18 Peyton Manning, Den QB

24 Michael Vick, Phi QB

31 Philip Rivers, SD QB

When it comes back around to me at 3.11, 10 QBs are already off the board. I drafted Romo in this league last year because I waited too long, after I swore I'd never own him, and he was garbage. This year I wanted a good QB and I think Ryan is a good bet to finish in the top 5. I'm not a proponent of chasing position runs, but sometimes you have to IMO.

 
I think most people expect a significant regression to the mean for passing stats this year. Last year was way out of line with historic averages, even after you factor in the general trend of increasing passing numbers. When you're doing these VAR calculations, here are a few things I'd suggest looking at:

1) Why have you broken down the QBs into groups of 5 and 7? Is this how your tiers are? You're assuming that if you don't get one of the top 5 QBs, you'll get one of the next 7, but choosing between Rodgers and Eli Manning is a lot different than choosing between Cam Newton and Matt Ryan.

2) These are the players that finished in the top 12 in previous years, but you don't know who those players will be before the season starts. It might be more useful to look at the top 5 QBs by ADP (or some experts' pre-draft rankings or whatever) and average their subsequent year's performance. I think this would be more relevant to drafting, where you don't know how players will finish.

3) For these numbers to be useful you need to compare them to something, like VAR for other positions. Do a similar calculation for RB and it will tell you, very roughly, which group should have been drafted first that year.
predicting top 5 qb's has proven to be a lot easier than predicting top 5 rb, te and wr's.
Are you sure about that? If it's true, my bet is that increased injury rates at those other positions has more to do with it than anything else. Last year there was a 40% turnover in QB ADP versus final QB rankings in the top 5. And what you're doing really just seems like an overly simplified way of doing VBD that loses most of the value of doing VBD. You seem to be taking the average value of a top 5 QB versus the average value of the next 7 QBs (which seems problematic to me from the start) and then inferring that that's the difference in value between the #5 and #6 QB.

VBD is a much more robust and accurate measure than what you're doing. It's not only going to give a better comparison between the #5 and #6 QBs, it's going to also factor in the differences at other positions too.

I'm not necessarily disagreeing with your premise, I'm just not sure that it follows from the statistics you chose.

 
I would agree, except in my local I drafted 11th, and the QBs were flying off the board:

4 Aaron Rodgers, GB QB

5 Drew Brees, NO QB

6 Tom Brady, NE QB

10 Cam Newton, Car QB

12 Matthew Stafford, Det QB

14 Matt Ryan, Atl QB  <---Me

16 Eli Manning, NYG QB

18 Peyton Manning, Den QB

24 Michael Vick, Phi QB

31 Philip Rivers, SD QB <--- Guys who made your pick look silly
 
2011

2/5 for RB

2/5 for WR

2010

2/5 for RB

0/5 for WR

2009

2/5 for RB

3/5 for WR

2008

1/5 for RB

1/5 for WR

*** There are quite a few near misses for WR

 
As a follow up. I believe the best way to capitalize on my above data is to draft either Cam Newton (if you like him, i don't), or Matt Ryan in the 3rd round in 12 team leagues.

I know this is high for Ryan but i believe he will finish top 5 this year and a lot of people are in aggreance with me. It is early for Ryan based on ADP BUT if you don't take him in the 3rd, especially if you draft early in the 3rd, chances are you wont see him again late in the 4th round.

The reason i say snag Ryan in the 3rd and not Stafford in the 2nd or Brady, Brees or Rodgers in the 1st is b/c you will still get top 5 performance, whcih i've shown above is very important, yet you will still be able to get great rb's or wr's in the 1st and 2nd and not spend those picks on a QB. Best of both worlds IMO.
Actually you showed no such thing since you didn't want to take the next step of seeing what the opportunity cost was. It seems that you were trying to do a VBD analysis without really taking all the necessary steps to make it meaningful at all.Further, when you compare the average of the top 5 QBs to the 7-12 QBs what is that really even saying. Does this analysis really show the treu difference of having the No. 6 QB v. having the No. 5 QB? or does it show the true gap in having the No. 1 QB v. the No. 10, 11 or 12 QBs?

Also I really hate to do this, but it's "agreement", "agreeance" was just bothering me too much.

 
As a follow up. I believe the best way to capitalize on my above data is to draft either Cam Newton (if you like him, i don't), or Matt Ryan in the 3rd round in 12 team leagues.

I know this is high for Ryan but i believe he will finish top 5 this year and a lot of people are in aggreance with me. It is early for Ryan based on ADP BUT if you don't take him in the 3rd, especially if you draft early in the 3rd, chances are you wont see him again late in the 4th round.

The reason i say snag Ryan in the 3rd and not Stafford in the 2nd or Brady, Brees or Rodgers in the 1st is b/c you will still get top 5 performance, whcih i've shown above is very important, yet you will still be able to get great rb's or wr's in the 1st and 2nd and not spend those picks on a QB. Best of both worlds IMO.
I like this in theory but not all drafts work out like this. Matt Ryan got drafted in our 2nd round in our draft last night
at that point what are you gonna do? taking ryan in 2nd is too early.
I would agree, except in my local I drafted 11th, and the QBs were flying off the board:4 Aaron Rodgers, GB QB

5 Drew Brees, NO QB

6 Tom Brady, NE QB

10 Cam Newton, Car QB

12 Matthew Stafford, Det QB

14 Matt Ryan, Atl QB  <---Me

16 Eli Manning, NYG QB

18 Peyton Manning, Den QB

24 Michael Vick, Phi QB

31 Philip Rivers, SD QB

When it comes back around to me at 3.11, 10 QBs are already off the board. I drafted Romo in this league last year because I waited too long, after I swore I'd never own him, and he was garbage. This year I wanted a good QB and I think Ryan is a good bet to finish in the top 5. I'm not a proponent of chasing position runs, but sometimes you have to IMO.
What? He threw for 4200 yards and 31 TDs. In a 6-point TD league, he was in a dead heat for QB6 with Eli. In a 4-point TD league, the yardage guys got some distance and he finished QB9, but just 5 points off of Rivers and Ryan, who basically tied for QB7.This is a significant perception problem in the Shark Pool: excellent performance vs. acquisition cost, e.g. what you got from Romo last year, is completely devalued if there are one or two guys who did it better (Stafford, Cam). You do not need top-3 players at every position to win your leagues, and it's probably best you don't worry too much about getting them since you almost certainly won't.

 
The bottom line is that the top QBs/TEs are being overvalued this year based on last years statistical spike, in turn leading to the lower tiers being over drafted as well. People are educated through trial and error, learning from their mistakes. I have a feeling many people will be looking back on their 2012 drafts as a live and learn experience

 
So i just ran some basic numbers from the 08,09,10,11 seasons regarding how the average points for the season for the top 5 QB's compare to the average points for the next 7 QB's. Its a 12 team league so if you weren't starting one of the top 12 qb's, i'm not sure what to tell you.

Its a ppr league where qb td passes are worth 4 points. Everything else is pretty basic.

2011

Top 5 401.9

Bottom 7 261.51

Difference 140.4

2010

Top 5 300.4

Bot. 7 247.2

Diff. 53.2

2009

Top 5 303.5

Bottom 7 250.07

Diff. 53.43

2008

Top 5 290.4

Bottom 7 216.72

Diff. 73.68

So what does that mean? The avg difference the past 4 years between the top 5 qb's and the bottom 7 is 80.17 points for the year or around 5 per game. I think thats a fairly significant number. However, to really compare you'd have to run those numerbs vs the opportunity cost of missing out on taking a rb or wr and what their averages are. Which i'm not doing.
That's almost a 3x jump in 2011 difference vs previous two years. That jumps out at me.
 
'McGarnicle said:
'ppierce said:
'Kuz said:
'ppierce said:
As a follow up. I believe the best way to capitalize on my above data is to draft either Cam Newton (if you like him, i don't), or Matt Ryan in the 3rd round in 12 team leagues.

I know this is high for Ryan but i believe he will finish top 5 this year and a lot of people are in aggreance with me. It is early for Ryan based on ADP BUT if you don't take him in the 3rd, especially if you draft early in the 3rd, chances are you wont see him again late in the 4th round.

The reason i say snag Ryan in the 3rd and not Stafford in the 2nd or Brady, Brees or Rodgers in the 1st is b/c you will still get top 5 performance, whcih i've shown above is very important, yet you will still be able to get great rb's or wr's in the 1st and 2nd and not spend those picks on a QB. Best of both worlds IMO.
I like this in theory but not all drafts work out like this. Matt Ryan got drafted in our 2nd round in our draft last night
at that point what are you gonna do? taking ryan in 2nd is too early.
I would agree, except in my local I drafted 11th, and the QBs were flying off the board:4 Aaron Rodgers, GB QB

5 Drew Brees, NO QB

6 Tom Brady, NE QB

10 Cam Newton, Car QB

12 Matthew Stafford, Det QB

14 Matt Ryan, Atl QB  <---Me

16 Eli Manning, NYG QB

18 Peyton Manning, Den QB

24 Michael Vick, Phi QB

31 Philip Rivers, SD QB

When it comes back around to me at 3.11, 10 QBs are already off the board. I drafted Romo in this league last year because I waited too long, after I swore I'd never own him, and he was garbage. This year I wanted a good QB and I think Ryan is a good bet to finish in the top 5. I'm not a proponent of chasing position runs, but sometimes you have to IMO.
huh? Romo '11 4184 yds, 31 tds 10 ints. 66% comp. rate.

Ryan '11 4177 yds, 29 tds. 12 ints. 61% comp. rate.

I'll load at other positions and gladly snag Romo/Cutler later. I'd bet M.Ryan will be just as likely to post similar numbers in '12

 
'We Tigers said:
'McGarnicle said:
'ppierce said:
'Kuz said:
'ppierce said:
As a follow up. I believe the best way to capitalize on my above data is to draft either Cam Newton (if you like him, i don't), or Matt Ryan in the 3rd round in 12 team leagues.

I know this is high for Ryan but i believe he will finish top 5 this year and a lot of people are in aggreance with me. It is early for Ryan based on ADP BUT if you don't take him in the 3rd, especially if you draft early in the 3rd, chances are you wont see him again late in the 4th round.

The reason i say snag Ryan in the 3rd and not Stafford in the 2nd or Brady, Brees or Rodgers in the 1st is b/c you will still get top 5 performance, whcih i've shown above is very important, yet you will still be able to get great rb's or wr's in the 1st and 2nd and not spend those picks on a QB. Best of both worlds IMO.
I like this in theory but not all drafts work out like this. Matt Ryan got drafted in our 2nd round in our draft last night
at that point what are you gonna do? taking ryan in 2nd is too early.
I would agree, except in my local I drafted 11th, and the QBs were flying off the board:4 Aaron Rodgers, GB QB

5 Drew Brees, NO QB

6 Tom Brady, NE QB

10 Cam Newton, Car QB

12 Matthew Stafford, Det QB

14 Matt Ryan, Atl QB  <---Me

16 Eli Manning, NYG QB

18 Peyton Manning, Den QB

24 Michael Vick, Phi QB

31 Philip Rivers, SD QB

When it comes back around to me at 3.11, 10 QBs are already off the board. I drafted Romo in this league last year because I waited too long, after I swore I'd never own him, and he was garbage. This year I wanted a good QB and I think Ryan is a good bet to finish in the top 5. I'm not a proponent of chasing position runs, but sometimes you have to IMO.
What? He threw for 4200 yards and 31 TDs. In a 6-point TD league, he was in a dead heat for QB6 with Eli. In a 4-point TD league, the yardage guys got some distance and he finished QB9, but just 5 points off of Rivers and Ryan, who basically tied for QB7.This is a significant perception problem in the Shark Pool: excellent performance vs. acquisition cost, e.g. what you got from Romo last year, is completely devalued if there are one or two guys who did it better (Stafford, Cam). You do not need top-3 players at every position to win your leagues, and it's probably best you don't worry too much about getting them since you almost certainly won't.
:goodposting:
 
'cracKer said:
The bottom line is that the top QBs/TEs are being overvalued this year based on last years statistical spike, in turn leading to the lower tiers being over drafted as well. People are educated through trial and error, learning from their mistakes. I have a feeling many people will be looking back on their 2012 drafts as a live and learn experience
I agree that people will be educated through trial and error. I just think people will learn that taking a guy like Rodgers/Brady or Brees in the first round is absolutely the way to go. I also think Graham and Gronk will continue to completely dominate the TE position. I'm pretty confident that we can take a look at this thread in 2-3 months and say more than 50% of the RBs (outside of the big 3) taken in the first 3 rounds were major disappointments. Conversely, I don't think that will hold true for the QBs, TEs or WRs taken in those same rounds. If I were to put a number on it, I'd guess the other positions hit more than 25% more often than the RBs do this year.
 
'McGarnicle said:
I would agree, except in my local I drafted 11th, and the QBs were flying off the board:

4 Aaron Rodgers, GB QB

5 Drew Brees, NO QB

6 Tom Brady, NE QB

10 Cam Newton, Car QB

12 Matthew Stafford, Det QB

14 Matt Ryan, Atl QB  <---Me

16 Eli Manning, NYG QB

18 Peyton Manning, Den QB

24 Michael Vick, Phi QB

31 Philip Rivers, SD QB

When it comes back around to me at 3.11, 10 QBs are already off the board. I drafted Romo in this league last year because I waited too long, after I swore I'd never own him, and he was garbage. This year I wanted a good QB and I think Ryan is a good bet to finish in the top 5. I'm not a proponent of chasing position runs, but sometimes you have to IMO.
WHOA Nellie!So, you reach for Ryan this year to make sure you don't have to be stuck with the "garbage" (Romo) like last year?

Last year's finish in QB Scoring (from FBG):

1 Drew Brees NO 32 11 468 657 5476 46 14 21 86 1 490 203

2 Aaron Rodgers GB 28 7 343 502 4643 45 6 60 257 3 489 201

3 Tom Brady NE 34 12 401 611 5235 39 12 43 109 3 462 174

4 Matthew StaffordDET 23 3 421 663 5038 41 16 22 78 0 433 145

5 Cam Newton CAR 22 1 310 517 4051 21 17 126 706 14 431 143

6 Eli Manning NYG 30 8 358 588 4910 29 16 35 15 1 366 78

7 Tony Romo DAL 31 8 346 522 4184 31 10 22 46 1 355 67

8 Matt Ryan ATL 26 4 347 566 4177 29 12 37 84 2 350 62

Seems like you made the right call LAST year, and the wrong one this year.

 
'cracKer said:
The bottom line is that the top QBs/TEs are being overvalued this year based on last years statistical spike, in turn leading to the lower tiers being over drafted as well. People are educated through trial and error, learning from their mistakes. I have a feeling many people will be looking back on their 2012 drafts as a live and learn experience
I agree that people will be educated through trial and error. I just think people will learn that taking a guy like Rodgers/Brady or Brees in the first round is absolutely the way to go. I also think Graham and Gronk will continue to completely dominate the TE position. I'm pretty confident that we can take a look at this thread in 2-3 months and say more than 50% of the RBs (outside of the big 3) taken in the first 3 rounds were major disappointments. Conversely, I don't think that will hold true for the QBs, TEs or WRs taken in those same rounds. If I were to put a number on it, I'd guess the other positions hit more than 25% more often than the RBs do this year.
I hear ya. But taking a top QB in the 1st(I've seen Rodgers, Brady, Brees, Cam, Staff all go in the 1st)you set yourself up for being behind the curve elsewhere. I had a draft where those 5 QB's were taken in the 1st. I took DMC and Forte first two rounds and waited for Romo/Cutler. I like it. It's a ten team ppr, 4 point passing TDs, and the guy who took Stafford in the 1st ended up with SJax, JStew, SGreene, and Helu for RB's. Not impressive for a 10 teamer imo.I just keep seeing owners scramble for RB scraps when the take QB round 1. I've also seen these same guys take Graham/Gronk or Julio/A.J. with their second pick, waiting for 3rd or later to start taking RB's. You can get SJax, FJax, TRich, Lynch here. But after that RB falls off a cliff besides a few guys like Ridley, McGahee, Bush, Sproles.I've always found that when I dont address RB early and often, I'm left wishing I did in the middle of the season. RB's get injured. Its not the position be struggling at in FF.
 
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