David Johnson Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

[Ilov80s]

I am getting 13.83 ppg for RB7. Yardage bonuses included in your overall numbers? I just used FBG's numbers for standard.

I don’t know, might have just knocked off 30% instead of 33% to do the quick math in my head. Sorry if that was a bit off- my point was just how freaking good he is/was.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I am sure. I don't think anyone expects him to repeat his 2016 season. Let's hack off 1/3 of his fantasy points from 2016 and it's still 14.5 standard ppg which would have made him RB5 last year. 

So hacking off a third of his FF production is one thing, but you're assuming a linear reduction in stat categories across the board.

A straight .1 pt for 1 YFS and 6 points/TD puts Johnson at the following FF points accumulated for 2016 - 211.8 on yards 120 on TD's. 331.8 total.  36.1% of his point total was TD's.

One large factor Johnson was as prolific as he was in 2016 because he had 20 TD's.  That's an outsized number to expect YoY if all conditions remained the same, much less changed the way they have in ARI.  Is it possible this number alone could decrease down to 10?  Let's recognize that 10 TD's in 2017 would have ranked 8th in the NFL.

On TD's alone, that would represent an 18% reduction in his 2016 point total

Now if he gave you 2100+ YFS and 10 TD's, you're still spiking the football...but how effective will ARI in moving the football?  Bradford's health history is well-chronicled, Rosen starting game is a pure-wild card.   Could he be Jared Goff rookie bad?  I doubt it...but no one thought Jared Goff was going to be THAT bad heading into 2016.  And while Jared Goff wasn't the only reason LAR imploded that season (***cough*** Jeff Fisher)...the accumulation of external negative circumstance contributed to Todd Gurley, the same Todd Gurley who is seemingly a consensus 1.01 pick this year - to plod toward a 1212/6 season.  Noone was satisfied with his 'floor' that year.

Now - I'm not predicting DJ regresses or performs to this level whatsoever.  But what I am saying is that there are enough negative circumstances surrounding this franchise at the moment to produce a catastrophic season all-around.  QB may look good for the long term, but there could be (likely be) some growing pains here.  The coaching hires following Arians departure have been seen/viewed as quite underwhelming.  The WR's behind Fitzgerald include Brice Butler as the #2 WR and Christian Kirk (a guy I like, but still a rookie learning the pro game with a transitory QB situation).

I know I'm a broken record, but the key to Round 1 for me is always avoiding the land mine that you didn't see coming.  It's not the player I'm concerned about, but the situation for at least this season feels unsettled at best, and one that could derail Johnson through no fault of his own.

 

[Ilov80s]

The difference betrween DJ and 2016 Gurley is 62. That is how many more targets DJ had than Gurley in 2016. DJ was 25th in the NFL in targets in 2016. He got more targets than Travis Kelce, Brandin Cooks, etc. I think that keeps DJ viable no matter how bad the team is but I get putting Bell, Gurley and maybe Zeke (he has his own offensive question marks) ahead of him. 

 

[TripItUp]

The difference betrween DJ and 2016 Gurley is 62. That is how many more targets DJ had than Gurley in 2016. DJ was 25th in the NFL in targets in 2016. He got more targets than Travis Kelce, Brandin Cooks, etc. I think that keeps DJ viable no matter how bad the team is but I get putting Bell, Gurley and maybe Zeke (he has his own offensive question marks) ahead of him. 

I think most people will take the under on DJ's 2016 targets.  To what extent is the debate.

 

[gianmarco]

I think most people will take the under on DJ's 2016 targets.  To what extent is the debate.

Who is going to get them? 

 

[TripItUp]

Who is going to get them? 

I don't think anybody knows with certainty how many targets there will be and who will get them.  I know I'd take the under on 2016 team targets as well as 2016 DJ targets.

Palmer and the offense looked great that year.   Most don't anticipate that level of success this year.

 

[Milkman]

They are likely to be trailing a lot this year. That's one of the things that makes DJ so special, it doesn't matter, he's dominant in any game script. 

 

[Buckna]

The Cardinal's were already 3rd in passing attempts in 2016 and 5th in attempts last year (one of the reasons Fitz has continued to be a fantasy stud despite advancing age.) Who knows for sure as it's pretty hard thing to predict year to year, but it's hard to imagine the overall pie of targets not decreasing quite a bit considering the coaching and personnel changes.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

The difference betrween DJ and 2016 Gurley is 62. That is how many more targets DJ had than Gurley in 2016. DJ was 25th in the NFL in targets in 2016. He got more targets than Travis Kelce, Brandin Cooks, etc. I think that keeps DJ viable no matter how bad the team is but I get putting Bell, Gurley and maybe Zeke (he has his own offensive question marks) ahead of him. 

The comparison between each of their 2016 seasons was not the point I was trying to make.  In 2016 DJ was part of an explosive and complete offense.  Gurley was part of a disfunctional one.  In 2017, once Gurley became part of an explosive and complete offense, he turned beastly.

For 2018, would you term the parts around DJ as explosive and complete?  Simply put, we have recent history as to what can happen to a player as dynamic when there is nothing around them.  It’s not that DJ won’t be a ‘viable’ player, but at 1.04...?  

 

[Chaka]

Top five pick in most formats. Don't talk yourself out of one of the few potential difference makers in the league.

If he falls to you at #5 you sprint to make that pick.

Can't believe people are putting Kamara ahead of him.

 

[Ilov80s]

The comparison between each of their 2016 seasons was not the point I was trying to make.  In 2016 DJ was part of an explosive and complete offense.  Gurley was part of a disfunctional one.  In 2017, once Gurley became part of an explosive and complete offense, he turned beastly.

For 2018, would you term the parts around DJ as explosive and complete?  Simply put, we have recent history as to what can happen to a player as dynamic when there is nothing around them.  It’s not that DJ won’t be a ‘viable’ player, but at 1.04...?  

My point was DJ had been used as receiver so much more than Gurley had that even if the Cards offense struggled, he wasn’t going to bust the way Gurley has.

 

[Biabreakable]

The Cardinal's were already 3rd in passing attempts in 2016 and 5th in attempts last year (one of the reasons Fitz has continued to be a fantasy stud despite advancing age.) Who knows for sure as it's pretty hard thing to predict year to year, but it's hard to imagine the overall pie of targets not decreasing quite a bit considering the coaching and personnel changes.

Yes the Cardinals have been pretty high in pass attempts. As I showed in 2016 when DJ became the starter they threw the ball a lot more.

Looking at the history of the offensive coordinator, also throws the ball a lot, and throws to the RB a lot.

The overall volume might come down if Bradford gets injured early on as rookie QB tends to scale things back, but I expect that DJ will still get his under this scenario as well.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

My point was DJ had been used as receiver so much more than Gurley had that even if the Cards offense struggled, he wasn’t going to bust the way Gurley has.

In that awful year Gurley had, his receiving numbers still showed out at the top end of the RB spectrum; 57 targets, 43 receptions, 357 yards.  It wasn’t that 2017 was the first time Gurley was used as a receiver out of the backfield, it was just with a better offense, QB and weapons around him, each of those figures exploded not to mention YPC which increased from 7.6 to 12.3 and TD’s (from 0 to 6).

What would be considered a bust year from a player (RB) picked at 1.04?

 

[Ilov80s]

In that awful year Gurley had, his receiving numbers still showed out at the top end of the RB spectrum; 57 targets, 43 receptions, 357 yards.  It wasn’t that 2017 was the first time Gurley was used as a receiver out of the backfield, it was just with a better offense, QB and weapons around him, each of those figures exploded not to mention YPC which increased from 7.6 to 12.3 and TD’s (from 0 to 6).

What would be considered a bust year from a player (RB) picked at 1.04?

DJ wasn’t used like a pass catching RB. He was used as a receiver. 120 targets. That was top 25 in the NFL for any position. He was gamescript proof. All I’m saying is DJ has a safer floor than almost any RB because of what he can do as a receiver.

 

[Stealthycat]

I think DJohnson is a beast again this season - so much so that I traded OBJ for him in a dynasty salary league and was tickled to get him.

3 down, bell cow RB who catches a lot of balls ..... I'm all in

 

[TheDirtyWord]

DJ wasn’t used like a pass catching RB. He was used as a receiver. 120 targets. That was top 25 in the NFL for any position. He was gamescript proof. All I’m saying is DJ has a safer floor than almost any RB because of what he can do as a receiver.

So do you think that his usage as more of a receiver was by some factor a result of the QB/coach/talent combination that existed pre-2017?

Even with Gurley's exceptional year last year all around, 763 of his 788 receiving yards were YAC.  For DJ of his 1398 career receiving yards, only 1040 were YAC.  Meaning his depth of target on average was almost 3 yards down the field.  You're right in that, he's not the normal RB from a receiving skill standpoint.  But to me, fully taking advantage of that skillset involves not just DJ, but a QB/coach combination good enough to take advantage of them.

In 2015-2016 of Palmer's 1134 pass attempts, 126 travelled more than 20 yards in the air.  He took shots.  Bradford is notoriously allergic to throwing down field (84/1084) during that same period.  Bradford's mere presence in the line-up likely will have defense trending their weight toward the LOS.  So I think you'll see his YPR number come down by at least 3 yards.

He was game-script proof in 2016 but he played 103 more offensive snaps than any other RB in the NFL in 2016 (964).  Will Wilks/McCoy have the same philosophy of riding him into the ground like Arians did, recognizing that as their best offensive weapon, it may make sense for them to take a longer term view to his career, mainly when Rosen truly is the franchise QB they hope he'll be?  So 60 snaps/game for Johnson...do I think that happens again?  No - 45 snaps/game in 2017 would still put DJ 5th in the NFL (RB offensive snaps).

So just on time on the field and depth of target you could argue on those factors alone - Johnson goes down to 60 receptions and down maybe to 8 YPR.  And we haven't even discussed overall offensive efficiency which if you take into account their OL is quite injury prone/thin...not to mention not very good (PFF ranked them 31st in 2017).

Again - he could ball out.  Maybe it's more likely that he does than doesn't.  But I see a lot of risk here that seems to be getting overlooked. 

 

[TripItUp]

The Cardinal's were already 3rd in passing attempts in 2016 and 5th in attempts last year (one of the reasons Fitz has continued to be a fantasy stud despite advancing age.) Who knows for sure as it's pretty hard thing to predict year to year, but it's hard to imagine the overall pie of targets not decreasing quite a bit considering the coaching and personnel changes.

 

[Biabreakable]

So do you think that his usage as more of a receiver was by some factor a result of the QB/coach/talent combination that existed pre-2017?

Yes. As a college prospect David Johnson demonstrated wide receiver like ability as a route runner.

Carson Palmers highest targets to a RB in his career prior to David Johnson was 75 for Chris Henry in 2006. I think David Johnson has a lot to do with how he was used in 2016 and something that McCoy should be able to replicate considering how he used Woodhead and Gordon as receivers in SD.

Even with Gurley's exceptional year last year all around, 763 of his 788 receiving yards were YAC.  For DJ of his 1398 career receiving yards, only 1040 were YAC.  Meaning his depth of target on average was almost 3 yards down the field.  You're right in that, he's not the normal RB from a receiving skill standpoint.  But to me, fully taking advantage of that skillset involves not just DJ, but a QB/coach combination good enough to take advantage of them.

McCoy should be able to take advantage of David Johnsons abilities as a receiver which are diverse as he wants them to be. Sam Bradford a very accurate QB who makes good pre snap reads which allow him to get the ball out quickly. Johnson being a player who can get open early in the play.

In 2015-2016 of Palmer's 1134 pass attempts, 126 travelled more than 20 yards in the air.  He took shots.  Bradford is notoriously allergic to throwing down field (84/1084) during that same period.  Bradford's mere presence in the line-up likely will have defense trending their weight toward the LOS.  So I think you'll see his YPR number come down by at least 3 yards.

He has a career average 11.5 ypr all with Palmer and extraordinarily high for a RB. I projected him for 9 ypr 2.5 less but I could see 3.

His catch percentage should improve however because Bradford is an accurate passer. Johnson is a 65% catcher which is good for a WR but below average for a RB. I can see this improving to 73% at least with Bradford.

He was game-script proof in 2016 but he played 103 more offensive snaps than any other RB in the NFL in 2016 (964).  Will Wilks/McCoy have the same philosophy of riding him into the ground like Arians did, recognizing that as their best offensive weapon, it may make sense for them to take a longer term view to his career, mainly when Rosen truly is the franchise QB they hope he'll be?  So 60 snaps/game for Johnson...do I think that happens again?  No - 45 snaps/game in 2017 would still put DJ 5th in the NFL (RB offensive snaps).

I hadn't really thought about this. McCoy could do something like split with another RB to keep David Johnson fresh. If he plays fewer snaps, they likely get him the ball more frequently when he does.

So just on time on the field and depth of target you could argue on those factors alone - Johnson goes down to 60 receptions and down maybe to 8 YPR.  And we haven't even discussed overall offensive efficiency which if you take into account their OL is quite injury prone/thin...not to mention not very good (PFF ranked them 31st in 2017).

See the catch rate comments above. Johnson could have more receptions on fewer targets as Bradford is more accurate passer than Palmer, along with a reduction on yards per reception. 8 ypr would be 3.5 yards less than his career average of 11.5 ypr on 122 receptions. That is enough volume for me to think that might be what he does for his career. I guess we will see.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

He was game-script proof in 2016 but he played 103 more offensive snaps than any other RB in the NFL in 2016 (964).  Will Wilks/McCoy have the same philosophy of riding him into the ground like Arians did, recognizing that as their best offensive weapon, it may make sense for them to take a longer term view to his career, mainly when Rosen truly is the franchise QB they hope he'll be?  So 60 snaps/game for Johnson...do I think that happens again?  No - 45 snaps/game in 2017 would still put DJ 5th in the NFL (RB offensive snaps).

Isn't DJ currently holding out cause he wants an extension going into his final year of his contract? There is a very real possibility that DJ is not on the Cards long term, or they franchise him next year before letting him go. If anything I'd think a coach would lean much more heavily on a RB to take pressure off a young QB, like we saw with Dak and Goff.

Look at how hard it is for DJ and Bell to get long term deals. As rookie RB's continue to produce and RBBC expands, even top tier RBs are becoming replaceable. DJ's volume might go down but it won't be because the coaching staff is trying to extend his career.