Deranged Hermit
Not cool & Pissed
The third installment of my early rankings. RB rankings can be found HERE QB rankings HERE. Remember, this is how I think things will fall by season's end, not how I would draft them. I have a few guys in my 15-20 range that you can get much later in the draft, but I expect them to far exceed their ADP.
There's a good reason I saved WR until last, they're VERY hard to predict past the top 10. Here's my best shot though:
1. Andre Johnson
IMO, there's Andre Johnson and there's everyone else. Should be far and away the best WR this year. I don't see him slipping much past 1.6 in most PPR leagues.
*stupid to do this so soon, but I think AJ is in a tier all his own.*
2. Randy Moss
I'm going to call bull@#$% on all the Welker talk. Until I see him play in pre-season, there's no way I believe he'll be back before week 6. That means the Pats will lean even harder on Moss.
3. Reggie Wayne
Indy does like to spread things out a bit, but the team loves to throw the ball. Wayne is about as consistant as they come.
4. Miles Austin
He almost got the nod at number 3, but I decided to go with the guy who's done it many years in a row over the guy who hasn't. If you read my QB rankings, you know I love the Dallas passing game this year. I expect Austin, Witten and a certain guy to be named later on this list to put up nice numbers.
5. Roddy White
A guy who seems to get little respect, but always seems to drop in my lap the last few years (to my surprise), is White. I see little reason to think he won't continue his stellar play this year.
6. Sidney Rice
This is assuming Favre will be back obviously. Anyway, with Favre at QB last year, Rice just exploded on the scene, rewarding patient owner who have stashed him on their roster the past few years. With APD at RB and Harvin giving Defenses fits by lining up everywhere, I expect Rice to run wild.
7. Greg Jennings
I honestly think last year's TD totals were an aberration. There's no way Rodgers throws 30 TDS again and Jennings doesn't catch 10 of them.
8. Brandon Marshall
There are WR who simply make QB's better, and Marshall has proven he can do that year in and year out. He caught 100+ passes from Kyle freakin' Orton last year.
9. Larry Fitzgerald
Quite simply, this means Fitz won't be on any team I draft this year. I obviously know that he's a great WR, but I have absolutely zero faith in Leinart's ability to get him the ball. The only ARI player I'd touch at his current ADP is Beanie.
*tier drop up-coming*
10. Marques Colston
Pretty much Reggie Wayne-lite. Team loves to throw the ball, but spreads it out more than Indy.
11. Anquan Boldin
Another guy who seems to fall into my lap in recent drafts and I'm not sure why. Has a very good young QB throwing to him and has a good WR on the other side of him. Throw in the fact you have a great RB in Rice to keep the D's honest and I don't see what's not to like.
12. Calvin Johnson
Megatron's ADP is all over the place from what I've seen. I love his talent, but am hesitant with a rookie (*edit* obviously Stafford is not a rook, my bad
)throwing to him. If you could get him as the 12th WR off the board (yes, that is possible) you did well.
*tier drop up-coming*
13. Chad Ochocinco
I die a little inside everytime I type that stupid name. Still though, he's going to be targeted a lot as I see a resurgance in Palmer this season. I'm also not sold on Benson being the RB he was last year, so they'll have to throw more because of it.
14. DeSean Jackson
We're in a wait and see phase in D-Jax's career right now. McNabb played to D-Jax's strengths and we're not sure if Kolb can throw the deep ball like '5' did.
15. Steve Smith (CAR)
This might change at season's beginning if that flag football injury sidelines him for longer than expected.
16. Dez Bryant
Everything I see in Dallas screams 'DRAFT ME'. I think they will throw the lights out and Austin and Bryant will benefit (as well as *spoiler alert* my number 1 TE).
*tier drop up-coming*
17. Hakeem Nicks
Steve Smith was the go-to guy earlier in the season, but as the season progressed, we saw things starting to change. I'll be looking hard at the NYG this preseason as I don't think their passing game will yeild two solid WR again this year, thus me leaving the other Steve Smith off my top 20.
18. Jeremy Maclin
I'm kind of hedging my bets with this choice as I can easily see Maclin out producing D-Jax this year. I can almost guarentee that Maclin will be on more of my teams than D-Jax, and I don't think his production will be that much less.
19. Michael Crabtree
I think this guy is a freak of nature. Being through a whole training camp to get reps in with Alex Smith will do him a world of good.
20. Hines Ward
17-24 were really hard for me. I ended up putting Ward, but I could have just as easily put Harvin, Steve Smith or Simms-Walker. Beware an emerging Mike Wallace too.
I'll probably do the top 15 TE's tomorrow and that'll put this series in da' books.
There's a good reason I saved WR until last, they're VERY hard to predict past the top 10. Here's my best shot though:
1. Andre Johnson
IMO, there's Andre Johnson and there's everyone else. Should be far and away the best WR this year. I don't see him slipping much past 1.6 in most PPR leagues.
*stupid to do this so soon, but I think AJ is in a tier all his own.*
2. Randy Moss
I'm going to call bull@#$% on all the Welker talk. Until I see him play in pre-season, there's no way I believe he'll be back before week 6. That means the Pats will lean even harder on Moss.
3. Reggie Wayne
Indy does like to spread things out a bit, but the team loves to throw the ball. Wayne is about as consistant as they come.
4. Miles Austin
He almost got the nod at number 3, but I decided to go with the guy who's done it many years in a row over the guy who hasn't. If you read my QB rankings, you know I love the Dallas passing game this year. I expect Austin, Witten and a certain guy to be named later on this list to put up nice numbers.
5. Roddy White
A guy who seems to get little respect, but always seems to drop in my lap the last few years (to my surprise), is White. I see little reason to think he won't continue his stellar play this year.
6. Sidney Rice
This is assuming Favre will be back obviously. Anyway, with Favre at QB last year, Rice just exploded on the scene, rewarding patient owner who have stashed him on their roster the past few years. With APD at RB and Harvin giving Defenses fits by lining up everywhere, I expect Rice to run wild.
7. Greg Jennings
I honestly think last year's TD totals were an aberration. There's no way Rodgers throws 30 TDS again and Jennings doesn't catch 10 of them.
8. Brandon Marshall
There are WR who simply make QB's better, and Marshall has proven he can do that year in and year out. He caught 100+ passes from Kyle freakin' Orton last year.
9. Larry Fitzgerald
Quite simply, this means Fitz won't be on any team I draft this year. I obviously know that he's a great WR, but I have absolutely zero faith in Leinart's ability to get him the ball. The only ARI player I'd touch at his current ADP is Beanie.
*tier drop up-coming*
10. Marques Colston
Pretty much Reggie Wayne-lite. Team loves to throw the ball, but spreads it out more than Indy.
11. Anquan Boldin
Another guy who seems to fall into my lap in recent drafts and I'm not sure why. Has a very good young QB throwing to him and has a good WR on the other side of him. Throw in the fact you have a great RB in Rice to keep the D's honest and I don't see what's not to like.
12. Calvin Johnson
Megatron's ADP is all over the place from what I've seen. I love his talent, but am hesitant with a rookie (*edit* obviously Stafford is not a rook, my bad
)throwing to him. If you could get him as the 12th WR off the board (yes, that is possible) you did well.*tier drop up-coming*
13. Chad Ochocinco
I die a little inside everytime I type that stupid name. Still though, he's going to be targeted a lot as I see a resurgance in Palmer this season. I'm also not sold on Benson being the RB he was last year, so they'll have to throw more because of it.
14. DeSean Jackson
We're in a wait and see phase in D-Jax's career right now. McNabb played to D-Jax's strengths and we're not sure if Kolb can throw the deep ball like '5' did.
15. Steve Smith (CAR)
This might change at season's beginning if that flag football injury sidelines him for longer than expected.
16. Dez Bryant
Everything I see in Dallas screams 'DRAFT ME'. I think they will throw the lights out and Austin and Bryant will benefit (as well as *spoiler alert* my number 1 TE).
*tier drop up-coming*
17. Hakeem Nicks
Steve Smith was the go-to guy earlier in the season, but as the season progressed, we saw things starting to change. I'll be looking hard at the NYG this preseason as I don't think their passing game will yeild two solid WR again this year, thus me leaving the other Steve Smith off my top 20.
18. Jeremy Maclin
I'm kind of hedging my bets with this choice as I can easily see Maclin out producing D-Jax this year. I can almost guarentee that Maclin will be on more of my teams than D-Jax, and I don't think his production will be that much less.
19. Michael Crabtree
I think this guy is a freak of nature. Being through a whole training camp to get reps in with Alex Smith will do him a world of good.
20. Hines Ward
17-24 were really hard for me. I ended up putting Ward, but I could have just as easily put Harvin, Steve Smith or Simms-Walker. Beware an emerging Mike Wallace too.
I'll probably do the top 15 TE's tomorrow and that'll put this series in da' books.
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J
