DeSean Jackson (1 Viewer)

[Rovers]

In looking at the cheatsheet rankings this week, I saw Jackson was all the way down at #42. In my PPR scoring system, he put up 18.5 points the last time Philly and NY played. If the Giants have a weakness on D, it's the pass D against speed recievers in my opinion.

The Philly passing matchup vs the Giants is rated as nuetral. The Giants pass D is ranked 10th, but as noted in the matchup article, has not played up to that ranking in recent weeks. McNabb comes off his best performance of the season.

As a comparison, Cotchery is listed as #21 against SF, a favorable matchup. The Jets have been spreading the ball around, especially to Dustin Keller for several weeks now. Favre comes off a bad game.

Both of these WR's have about the same points in 0.5 PPR leagues YTD. I see an over dependence on matchup weighting here.

I think Bloom makes the same miscalculation, with Cotchery at 14 and Jackson at 37.

Basically, I am asking why a team's #1 WR would be ranked so far below another team's WR that has no real #1 or #2 target. Is it based soley on the matchup against a given defense? Or am I missing something?

If one were to ask my opinion, Cotchery would be around #25 and Jackson around #18 on my cheatsheet. This is not a WDIS... LOL... pick another WR to compare to Jackson if you like. I picked Cotchery because I think he's too high, but the point is I think Jackson is WAY too low.

Any feedback on Jackson's ranking from staff (or others) is most welcome.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I see a pretty even split of targets among all 4 WRs with the TEs and Westbrook mixed in, and after the Gints held Moss down last week, I just don't trust Jackson to have better than a WR3 week. I think he's the kind of WR who has the upside to be bumped up the cheatsheet if you're an underdog, but he's competing with too many players for targets in a so-so matchup to rank very highly. I can see an argument for moving him up maybe 10-12 spots and your post has definitely gotten me thinking, but I don't see him as a top 20 WR this week.

Always appreciate the feedback and criticism (and consistent terrific Jets homer input)

 

[Rovers]

Good points, Sig. I did over state Jackson's role with Philly... they are much like the Jets in the way they spread the ball around. What makes me drop Cotch so much is all the attention (and targets) Favre gives Keller particularly over the last 3 weeks. He LOVES to throw to this rookie. The Jets offense is very TE friendly with a speed TE like Keller, at least while Favre is under center.

The Jackson/Moss comparison... I dunno. Moss is SUPER streaky. Moss is not as tough as Jackson. Jackson will go over the middle, Moss has a built in magnet for the sideline. It's the Giant safeties that lack the speed to stay with a speed WR. Moss doesn't run much when his sideline safety blanket isn't there. Westy also helps keep the LB's up... and I can see McNabb dropping some short middle and deep middle stuff to Jackson in this game.

No doubt, Jackson is streaky, as is the entire Eagle team, but he has blow up potential that Cotch for instance, lacks. I also looked at it this way.... Jackson is the highest ranked WR on the sheets from the Philly roster, and at that, he's #42 or 37 on your sheet. Are there really 36 WR's this week that are a better play than the highest ranked Eagle WR?

No doubt in my mind ONE Eagle WR will be a top 20 this week. I suppose I'm putting my $ on that WR being Jackson. Having said that, it could be Avant, Baskett or Curtis too. I'll take Jax out of that group.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

No doubt in my mind ONE Eagle WR will be a top 20 this week. I suppose I'm putting my $ on that WR being Jackson. Having said that, it could be Avant, Baskett or Curtis too. I'll take Jax out of that group.

I think that's a good take, and it kind of reflects a limitation of having projections that are just one data point. A more accurate projection would be something like a probability cloud.That being said, Im going to nudge Jackson from low WR3 to high WR3 in light of this discussion.

 

[Rovers]

No doubt in my mind ONE Eagle WR will be a top 20 this week. I suppose I'm putting my $ on that WR being Jackson. Having said that, it could be Avant, Baskett or Curtis too. I'll take Jax out of that group.

I think that's a good take, and it kind of reflects a limitation of having projections that are just one data point. A more accurate projection would be something like a probability cloud.That being said, Im going to nudge Jackson from low WR3 to high WR3 in light of this discussion.

A "probabilty cloud"? Dern, I like that one. No really.... I'm no number cruncher... is that a technical term? if it isn't, it should be!

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

I see a pretty even split of targets among all 4 WRs with the TEs and Westbrook mixed in, and after the Gints held Moss down last week, I just don't trust Jackson to have better than a WR3 week. I think he's the kind of WR who has the upside to be bumped up the cheatsheet if you're an underdog, but he's competing with too many players for targets in a so-so matchup to rank very highly. I can see an argument for moving him up maybe 10-12 spots and your post has definitely gotten me thinking, but I don't see him as a top 20 WR this week.Always appreciate the feedback and criticism (and consistent terrific Jets homer input)

Your not paying attention to what's going on with the Eagles right now, all due respect. They have pared down the crazy six receiver formations rendering Lewis and Brown non-existent and have clearly recognized Jackson as the best playmaker of the six. He is now starting all the time with Curtis in two receiver sets. He far and away leads in targets, yards and catches although he only has two Rec. TDs. He is however a threat to score on a reverse or out of the "Wildcat" which he has done and also to score on a punt return which he has this year as well.I'm going for upside and playing him over Bowe this week. The kid is special.Edited to add: your own site lists Jackson at 99 targets, the next closet is Curtis at 52. The kid is the main man in Philly.

 

[packersfan]

One thing to consider here is Curtis has been almost a complete non-factor in his games against the Giants with Philadelphia. In the first three games, he's caught only eight passes and never had more than three receptions in a game (though he did score in the first meeting this year). Now, he's more than capable of going off and having a huge game. But past history strongly suggests he will not be a major player in the game. That should open the door for Jackson to make more of an impact.

 

[renesauz]

Edited to add: your own site lists Jackson at 99 targets, the next closet is Curtis at 52. The kid is the main man in Philly.

You do realize Curtis missed the first eight games or so,,,,,,right?Curtis is the #1, although it's clearly more of a 1/1a situation.In the end, I do think Jackson is a bit under-rated this week.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

The point differential between WR14 and WR37 in the PPR projections is 3.4 points. The WRs are all bunched together in that range. It's not meaningful enough to just look at the ranking order, you have to account for the difference between each of the ranked items. It this case, the difference is minor: .1, .2 pts. as you move down the list. What they're bascially saying is that one guy has a chance at 1 or 2 more receptions for 10-20 more yards, and maybe a 10% chance more of scoring a TD than the other guy.

 

[Rovers]

The point differential between WR14 and WR37 in the PPR projections is 3.4 points. The WRs are all bunched together in that range. It's not meaningful enough to just look at the ranking order, you have to account for the difference between each of the ranked items. It this case, the difference is minor: .1, .2 pts. as you move down the list. What they're bascially saying is that one guy has a chance at 1 or 2 more receptions for 10-20 more yards, and maybe a 10% chance more of scoring a TD than the other guy.

I understand what you are saying, but projections basically suck IMO. A QB won't get 1.2 TD passes. I don't call that a projection, it's an average, a hedge. Meaningless in my opinion. Project a TD.. or two... or none. Projecting partial TD's? Meaningless. I put more stock in rankings. Any meaningful projection, again IMO, is to attempt to accurately project how a player might score that week. Last time I looked, a player can't get 1.2 touchdowns. Those are stat probabilities, NOT projections. BIG difference.

 

[Da Guru]

The point differential between WR14 and WR37 in the PPR projections is 3.4 points. The WRs are all bunched together in that range. It's not meaningful enough to just look at the ranking order, you have to account for the difference between each of the ranked items. It this case, the difference is minor: .1, .2 pts. as you move down the list. What they're bascially saying is that one guy has a chance at 1 or 2 more receptions for 10-20 more yards, and maybe a 10% chance more of scoring a TD than the other guy.

I understand what you are saying, but projections basically suck IMO. A QB won't get 1.2 TD passes. I don't call that a projection, it's an average, a hedge. Meaningless in my opinion. Project a TD.. or two... or none. Projecting partial TD's? Meaningless. I put more stock in rankings. Any meaningful projection, again IMO, is to attempt to accurately project how a player might score that week. Last time I looked, a player can't get 1.2 touchdowns. Those are stat probabilities, NOT projections. BIG difference.

..Who do you like??Projections are like pork bellies. Vincent Jackson was #36 this week and had around 150 and a TD.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

The hot pick this week is Hixon (and I have considered him myself) but I think DeSean has about the same prospects in this matchup - owners hoping for 5 or 6 receptions, possibly including a long score. Don't know what this site ranked Hixon at but I presume he's higher.

#35 or #40 or whatever doesn't mean a whole lot to me when I only have 5 or 6 options to choose from personally, anyway.

 

[Kwai Chang Caine]

Edited to add: your own site lists Jackson at 99 targets, the next closet is Curtis at 52. The kid is the main man in Philly.

You do realize Curtis missed the first eight games or so,,,,,,right?Curtis is the #1, although it's clearly more of a 1/1a situation.In the end, I do think Jackson is a bit under-rated this week.

Yes I realize Curtis missed three games but you are wrong in thinking he is the number 1. Do you have a source quoting Curtis as Philly's #1 this year or right now for that matter? Bloom also claimed that four receivers were getting equal targets. Avant and Baskett have 43 each as the third and fourth WRs. They didn't miss three games. Jackson is getting about double the looks from every other WR on the team. HTH.

 

[renesauz]

Edited to add: your own site lists Jackson at 99 targets, the next closet is Curtis at 52. The kid is the main man in Philly.

You do realize Curtis missed the first eight games or so,,,,,,right?Curtis is the #1, although it's clearly more of a 1/1a situation.

In the end, I do think Jackson is a bit under-rated this week.

Yes I realize Curtis missed three games but you are wrong in thinking he is the number 1. Do you have a source quoting Curtis as Philly's #1 this year or right now for that matter? Bloom also claimed that four receivers were getting equal targets. Avant and Baskett have 43 each as the third and fourth WRs. They didn't miss three games. Jackson is getting about double the looks from every other WR on the team. HTH.

Double every receiver except Curtis. Don't get me wrong...I think Jackson is certainly the better long-term play, but Curtis is still the #1 (if anybody is #1). There is no source other then target data. But also realize that Jackson's size makes him a far less then ideal RZ target.

I'm an Eagles fan completely stoked over Desean, but he is not quite yet the "main man" in Philly. He just one of the more important pieces.

 

[packersfan]

In the six games since Curtis returned, he has gotten 52 targets or 8.7 per game. Jackson has also gotten 52 targets in those six games. Avant has gotten 21 and Baskett has 19.

This isn't an offense which spreads the ball around equally to their WRs most weeks. Curtis and Jackson are clearly the dominant options in the passing game. As I posted earlier, Curtis' track record against the Giants as a member of the Eagles is awful. That should bode well for Jackson to be more involved and more productive. Of the two, Jackson clearly is the one with the most upside this week in my opinion. I don't think Curtis should be started in most leagues.

 

[Rovers]

The point differential between WR14 and WR37 in the PPR projections is 3.4 points. The WRs are all bunched together in that range. It's not meaningful enough to just look at the ranking order, you have to account for the difference between each of the ranked items. It this case, the difference is minor: .1, .2 pts. as you move down the list. What they're bascially saying is that one guy has a chance at 1 or 2 more receptions for 10-20 more yards, and maybe a 10% chance more of scoring a TD than the other guy.

I understand what you are saying, but projections basically suck IMO. A QB won't get 1.2 TD passes. I don't call that a projection, it's an average, a hedge. Meaningless in my opinion. Project a TD.. or two... or none. Projecting partial TD's? Meaningless. I put more stock in rankings. Any meaningful projection, again IMO, is to attempt to accurately project how a player might score that week. Last time I looked, a player can't get 1.2 touchdowns. Those are stat probabilities, NOT projections. BIG difference.

..Who do you like??Projections are like pork bellies. Vincent Jackson was #36 this week and had around 150 and a TD.

That is why I'm not big on projections. When I "rank" players, or more accurately, make line up decisions, in the case of WR's, I look at which WR on a given NFL team has been hot, look at the other targets that QB will have in the game and try to predict which WR is most likely to get the most targets and have the biggest day.Of all the WR's in the NY/Philly game, I think Jackson is the most likely to have one of those blow up weeks. Hixon will get his catches, but I don't think he has the big game potential that Jackson has. I'd put Hixon's max upside at 1TD, 7 catches, 90 yards. I'd put Jackson's max upside at 2TD's, 8 catches, 150 yards. While V Jackson had a big game, I wasn't shocked either. Gates has been stone cold, Chambers invisable. I was on the other hand surprised by Sproles' performance. I would have had VJ rated as the best WR play in that matchup. Same way I have D Jackson rated as the best play in the NY/Philly game. The chances of say a Cotchery having a huge game is minimal IMO. He is also less likely to have a very bad week than D Jackson... but not by much. The upside causes me to rank DJ as a better play. It's the playoffs, and it's time to make aggressive line up decisions. There aren't any more easy FF matchups... it's the playoffs. The "safe" play is the "play not to lose" strategy, which usually backfires.

 

[loose circuits]

 

[Rovers]

I was obviously dead wrong. Cotchery stunk up the joint too, for that matter.

Jackson tried to run the ball twice in the 1st quarter and they went for losses. Once Curtis got hurt, I thought for sure, NOW.... but when Westbrook gets 39 touches, there aren't many more left. I didn't even see Jackson on the field much in the 2nd half, AFTER Curits went down. It was Avant and Baskett.

 

[Routilla]

I was obviously dead wrong. Cotchery stunk up the joint too, for that matter. Jackson tried to run the ball twice in the 1st quarter and they went for losses. Once Curtis got hurt, I thought for sure, NOW.... but when Westbrook gets 39 touches, there aren't many more left. I didn't even see Jackson on the field much in the 2nd half, AFTER Curits went down. It was Avant and Baskett.

Does DJ now suck? Why would Avant and Baskett be getting ALL the playing time?

 

[Rovers]

I was obviously dead wrong. Cotchery stunk up the joint too, for that matter. Jackson tried to run the ball twice in the 1st quarter and they went for losses. Once Curtis got hurt, I thought for sure, NOW.... but when Westbrook gets 39 touches, there aren't many more left. I didn't even see Jackson on the field much in the 2nd half, AFTER Curits went down. It was Avant and Baskett.

Does DJ now suck? Why would Avant and Baskett be getting ALL the playing time?

One reason I thought he would get a lot of looks was because I expected Philly to be behind on the scoreboard. Dead wrong again. If behind, DJ is a game breaker, a quick strike threat. With a lead, maybe they though Baskett and Avant being big WR's would be more useful blocking for Westy and executing what turned into a dominating ball control time of possession game plan? Pure speculation... but it sounds good.

 

[Routilla]

I was obviously dead wrong. Cotchery stunk up the joint too, for that matter. Jackson tried to run the ball twice in the 1st quarter and they went for losses. Once Curtis got hurt, I thought for sure, NOW.... but when Westbrook gets 39 touches, there aren't many more left. I didn't even see Jackson on the field much in the 2nd half, AFTER Curits went down. It was Avant and Baskett.

Does DJ now suck? Why would Avant and Baskett be getting ALL the playing time?

One reason I thought he would get a lot of looks was because I expected Philly to be behind on the scoreboard. Dead wrong again. If behind, DJ is a game breaker, a quick strike threat. With a lead, maybe they though Baskett and Avant being big WR's would be more useful blocking for Westy and executing what turned into a dominating ball control time of possession game plan? Pure speculation... but it sounds good.

Check.

 

[Rovers]

Forgot to mention this... the wind was pretty bad too. The wind pretty much took the deep pass out of the game. Both QB's had a hard time with the windy conditions, as did the kickers.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Yeah, I didn't read about the wind beforehand. MAYBE I would have taken DeSean out, but, meh, easy to second-guess now.

 

[daivos]

Thankfully, I had Jackson riding the pine this past week.

He's a great starta against Cleveland though. Coming off an 0 - for week, he should bounce back against a terrible defense.