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Devery Henderson? (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mr.Pack
- Start date
Reepicheep
Footballguy
Not playing him against Chicago this week, that's for sure.
jwb
Footballguy
I spent quite a bit on him too - he's probably a good play for a few weeks.
Devery Henderson is and example my least favorite kind of player. He has a handful of unpredictable big games every year and when you add up his season totals, they are actually decent. The problem is that you can never tell when he's going to go off. So, for a best ball type league, he's great. But I don't play in those, so for my purposes he's not that valuable.
I guess the thinking is that if Colston and Moore are out, then his opportunities will go way up, so in the short run he might be a nice plug in, but I think that even if one of the two is in, there are too many targets to make Henderson anything other than a desperation start. Let's say Moore plays. Then Henderson, barring something unpredictable, is the 5th receiving option after Meachem, Moore, Graham, and Sproles.
However, if you remove Moore, then I think he's a WR3. That's more confidence that I've had in him in my entire career.
I guess the thinking is that if Colston and Moore are out, then his opportunities will go way up, so in the short run he might be a nice plug in, but I think that even if one of the two is in, there are too many targets to make Henderson anything other than a desperation start. Let's say Moore plays. Then Henderson, barring something unpredictable, is the 5th receiving option after Meachem, Moore, Graham, and Sproles.
However, if you remove Moore, then I think he's a WR3. That's more confidence that I've had in him in my entire career.
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ChromeWeasel
Footballguy
Henderson was targeted 9 times last week, in a game WITH Colston active. That's as many targets as Colston or Sproles and more than anyone else. And he outproduced anyone on the team. Suggesting that he is the 5th receiving option is a real stretch with Colston out.Right now Henderson is likely to put up WR1 numbers with Colston out and Moore possibly out. If you skimped on WR in your draft he a great fill-in option for the next month. If you have better options that's pretty fantastic, but most owners should be looking at Henderson as a starter for the next few weeks with potential for the rest of the season.
Insein
Footballguy
I agree more with this. Its one thing if Brees only looked his way 3 or 4 times but 9 targets is a lot in any offense. Colston didn't get hurt till late in the game. Henderson was a factor throughout. I think he's a guy to watch. He's not going to be a stud #1. Not a chance. But he can provide WR2 numbers while Moore is out and respectable numbers the rest of the year. He's been with this team for years now and has produced big games. He's a homerun hitter in the same mold as a Desean Jackson. Boom or bust. You put him in and hope for the boom.
baconisgood
Footballguy
Henderson is not the same mold as Desean, he is the same mold as Bernard Berrian only worse. In 92 (92!!!) career games with NO (77 with Brees as his QB) he has 7+ targets in 11 of them. 1 in 2011, 1 in 2010, 4 in 2009, 1 in 2008, 1 in 2007, 1 in 2006 and 2 in 2005. Basically he gets 1 big target game a year. Now if you want to compare this year to 2009 by saying- he got a bunch more targets when everyone was injured and that is the most similar situation check this out.8t, 5r, 103 y, 1 TD- v Det 45-27 W8t, 6r, 61y, 0 TD-@ WAS 33-30 W8t, 2r, 22y, 0 TD-v Dal 17-24 L7t, 5r, 35y, 0 TD-v TB 17-20 LHe isn't worth a roster spot in non-ppr leagues (unless deep rosters) and he isn't worth much in PPR leagues unless you have injuries at your WR position and need a starter the next 2-4 weeks as he will be worthless again once Colston comes back, and maybe before then if Moore comes back.
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
We'll see about that. I think he's a very good start as a WR3 until Colston comes back.
degenerate
Footballguy
you guys are overreacting after one game where devery landed on the boom list. hasnt history taught you anything with this guy? come back after next game when he goes 2 for 14
Flying Elvis
Footballguy
Exactly. This is not the first time Colston has missed time. He's had this same situation in previous seasons with the same results. Unless you're hurting at WR for the next few weeks (Colston / Moore owners?) he's not likely to be worth it.
NeverEnough
Footballguy
But if Colston AND Moore are out doesn't that have to increase his targets? Not like they have another stud WR to plug in the lineup...
ChromeWeasel
Footballguy
He's a waiver wire guy, not a high round draft pick. For the next few weeks he has potential for WR1 or WR2 numbers. That's a good deal if you can add him from waivers. He's got value and he's worth a spot on the roster for most teams right now. And if for some reason Colston and Moore don't recover well from their injuries, he can be a WR1 or WR2 for the rest of the season. I understand tempering your enthusiasm for Henderson, but saying he's worthless is going too far. If nothing else, he's great protection in case you own Colston.
ChromeWeasel
Footballguy
Brandon Lloyd taught me last year to watch for players with potential. History has also taught me that waiting another week or two for a guy to 'prove himself' is likely to cost me a possible breakout player at a bargain basement cost.
baconisgood
Footballguy
Except hes not. Brees has thrown for 23,000 yards and 158 TDs in NO and Henderson has been available for all but 3 of those games and has caught, drumroll... 3,300 yards and 15 TDs. In 2008 Colston missed games 2-7 and Henderson had 2,2,1,4,2,3 receptions in those 5 games and caught 1 TD. less than 80 yards and 0.2 TDs a game is not exactly what I am looking for.In 2009 when Lance Moore had receptions in 6 games he caught 3,3,3,4,1,3,6,3,5,1 in the 10 games Moore didn't get a reception- scoring fewer than 10 pts in PPR leagues in 7 of those 10 games and totaling 1 TD. Almost his whole career he has played with Drew Brees and the top receiving options during those years, Colston, Shockey, Bush and Moore have all missed enough time to give him shots at being fantasy relevant.
Insein
Footballguy
If he's truly WW fodder, then I've invested very little with the pickup and will be dropping him for someone new in a week or 2. If he's this years Brandon Lloyd, then BOOM!To note, I'm not expecting him to be this years Brandon Lloyd. I am expecting decent WR2/3 numbers from a guy who's been in the same system with the same QB for 6+ years now on the off chance that he clicks and has his career year when opportunity knocks.
kerpow
Footballguy
Sure....but who else is going to catch the 20 completions that Brees is likely to make? 10 may go to Sproles and Graham but the rest will be shared mostly by Meacham and Henderson.
Where do Colston's targets go?1) Moore. If he is out, arrington.2) Graham3) Sproles/Thomas.Henderson is who he is, a good blocking outside deep threat. He's been on the field for 70% of the snaps over the last 4 years, and his role isn't going to change. He's not moving into the slot and running seam routes through the center of the field.Meachem could slide into that role, but those two bricks he carries around suggests to me he won't. I suspect opportunities have also been affected by his route running, but don't know that for a fact. Again, his opportunities are primarily in jumbo sets as a single wide (he is Mr 40 yd TD on 3rd and short) and running the same routes as Hendo on the opposite side of the field.In my book, both guys are great bye week plays, as they can always blow up, but if you are going to rely on them every week, even with Colston out, you'll be very disappointed. Moore is going to be the volume guy, and if he is out arrington is the sneaky play.
degenerate
Footballguy
i just think devery has already proven himself to not be a reliable play over the years. i wouldn't expect a breakout in this offense. if you start him it's a major gamble (which is fine sometimes). sure he might be good bench filler for a couple weeks, but i'd rather have meachem or moore if i had to take a saints wr.
AmosMoses
Footballguy
Brees had 45+ attempts 5 times in 07, 08 and 4 times in 2010. That's pretty a regular happening, right?
Casting Couch
Footballguy
It's the same thing every year with Devery. Owners spend gobs of cash to snag him off the waiver wire only to watch him fade to black.
valhallan
Footballguy
More specifically, here are Brees' last 3 outings vs. the Bears:'AmosMoses said:
Code:
Year Date Opp Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD Int Rate 2006 2007-01-21 CHI 27 49 55.1% 354 2 1 83.22007 2007-12-30 CHI 35 60 58.3% 320 3 2 75.72008 2008-12-11 CHI 24 43 55.8% 232 2 2 67.2
skillz
Footballguy
He can't be any worse for me than Ocho Stinko. I think he's a good stop gap given the injuries in NO and fact that the team passes a ton. I am not expecting Devery to be a long term fix to my WR problem but he'll give me a better option than what I currently have on my roster. That's all I am looking for or expecting.
Insein
Footballguy
And thats really what the WW is all about. Whether its a short term stop gap or a long term gem, you're grabbing players that you hope can perform better than the ones you have currently.
Reepicheep
Footballguy
Insein
Footballguy
oof. TBH, I didn't play him either but it didn't cost me either way. I'm liking the way he's making the most of what he gets. Sure most of his stats this week are from 1 play but thats the way this guy is. Mike wallace was a one play guy that evolved into more. Devery has been around longer but there's nothing saying he can't blow up.
David Yudkin
Footballguy
To answer the original question, different FBG staff work on different things, meaning one person making the lists heading forward may have a difference of opinion than the one making the waiver wire gems.
