Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
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Divisional Round **Cincinnati at Buffalo** (-6, 49) (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Ministry of Pain
- Start date
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
Looking forward to a quiet week with no discussion about how the playoff seeding worked or it might have affected the venue of this game.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
If the Bills play a solid game without shooting themselves in the foot, they have a very good chance to win.
The problem for Buffalo, is that they really haven’t played a non-sloppy game in a really long time. Josh can’t be turning the ball over. The receivers can’t be dropping passes. The defense can’t be missing tackles.
I’d feel way more confident if the Bills hadn’t shown a shocking propensity of beating themselves all year.
The problem for Buffalo, is that they really haven’t played a non-sloppy game in a really long time. Josh can’t be turning the ball over. The receivers can’t be dropping passes. The defense can’t be missing tackles.
I’d feel way more confident if the Bills hadn’t shown a shocking propensity of beating themselves all year.
The game we didn't get to see a few weeks ago. Great news on Mr. Hamlin helps both of these teams concentrate on football. If The Bengals hadn't been hit with O-Line injuries they have been hit with I'd feel pretty confident in picking them. My confidence is a little lower because of that but I still like...
Bengals- 37
Bills- 34
Bengals- 37
Bills- 34
habsfan
Footballguy
For context I just had Allen in fantasy and don't watch the Bills through a fan's lens but he seemed to really be forcing the deep shots against Miami and it stands to reason if you throw up that many "jump balls" the other guys are coming down with some. He didn't seem as "receptive" to running it as usual either - that or it simply wasn't there against Miami.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
The Bills weapons outside of Diggs have underperformed. The two INTs are directly the result of mistakes from guys that the Bills signed OFF THE STREET in the last month.
For all the credit they got as “one of the best rosters in football” they have muffed WR. They watched Hodgins walk out the door because he couldn’t play special teams. Guess what? You need WRs not social teams players!
I think Allen is way better than his stats and hamstrung by his situation. Hope I am wrong but leaning toward a CIN win here
For all the credit they got as “one of the best rosters in football” they have muffed WR. They watched Hodgins walk out the door because he couldn’t play special teams. Guess what? You need WRs not social teams players!
I think Allen is way better than his stats and hamstrung by his situation. Hope I am wrong but leaning toward a CIN win here
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
In fairness, I think we should give Gabe Davis credit for having a really good game on Sunday. I've been extremely disappointed in his play this season, but he brought it last weekend.The Bills weapons outside of Diggs have underperformed. The two INTs are directly the result of mistakes from guys that the Bills signed OFF THE STREET in the last month.
For all the credit they got as “one of the best rosters in football” they have muffed WR. They watched Hodgins walk out the door because he couldn’t play special teams. Guess what? You need WRs not social teams players!
I think Allen is way better than his stats and hamstrung by his situation. Hope I am wrong but leaning toward a CIN win here
Honestly, if Shakir just makes that one catch we're talking about Allen's unstoppable day in the air.
Bills -5 is such a weird spread. There is no reason to think Buffalo is a better team than Cincinnati. Bengals haven't lost since October. Thier 4 losses this season are:
Week 1: OT loss to Steelers where Burrow had 5 turnovers
Week 2: 3 point loss at Dallas
Week 5: 2 point loss at Baltimore (with Lamar)
Week 8: 19 point loss at Cleveland, with no Ja'Marr Chase, and defense couldn't stop Cleveland's run game, and the PA off of it.
I also strongly believe the Bengals were winning that Monday Night game if they finished it. This game should probably be on a neutral site, but whatever.
The biggest difference between these 2 teams is Buffalo gives up big plays on defense. Only Houston and Jacksonville were worse, meanwhile the Bengals were in the top-5 fewest, behind only SF, LAR, NE, and Minnesota (who were more about consistent gains, then big plays)
Expecting Burrow to have a nice game (with some sacks in there) but think some short plays, could become big plays against Buffalo's D. Might be a nice Mixon week.
Truth be told, this is the worst Bills team of the last 3 years. I think the 2020 and 2021 teams were better than this one.
Week 1: OT loss to Steelers where Burrow had 5 turnovers
Week 2: 3 point loss at Dallas
Week 5: 2 point loss at Baltimore (with Lamar)
Week 8: 19 point loss at Cleveland, with no Ja'Marr Chase, and defense couldn't stop Cleveland's run game, and the PA off of it.
I also strongly believe the Bengals were winning that Monday Night game if they finished it. This game should probably be on a neutral site, but whatever.
The biggest difference between these 2 teams is Buffalo gives up big plays on defense. Only Houston and Jacksonville were worse, meanwhile the Bengals were in the top-5 fewest, behind only SF, LAR, NE, and Minnesota (who were more about consistent gains, then big plays)
Expecting Burrow to have a nice game (with some sacks in there) but think some short plays, could become big plays against Buffalo's D. Might be a nice Mixon week.
Truth be told, this is the worst Bills team of the last 3 years. I think the 2020 and 2021 teams were better than this one.
FairWarning
Footballguy
I was thinking the line would be -3, 3.5. The conspirator would think that Vegas wants Cinn money. I can’t see this being more than a FG game.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
It does kind of feel that way, but the weird thing is that just about every metric says otherwise.
Hot Sauce Guy
Footballguy
They sure came out of the gate firing on all 8.
I agree they’re better than last year. They were a little flat last week - I think they were just off against Miami, and MIA D played like their heads were on fire.
That, and week 18 was the super emotional “win it for #3!” game, and that probably took a lot out of them. Unscientific theory, but that occurred to me during the MIA game.
They should be a little more settled for the Cinci matchup. That’s gonna be a good game.
FairWarning
Footballguy
The last six weeks, Buffalo just seems off.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Last 9 weeks for Buffalo:
Snowstorm that turned a home game into a road game in Det with three days notice.
Back there four days later for Thanksgiving. Von Miller lost for the year.
Three straight division games against a division with one of the leagues best records.
Christmas Eve game where they got trapped in Chicago for the night, missed Christmas morning with their families and saw 31 people die in the region.
Damar.
Two more division games.
8-0 with +73 pt differential.
Snowstorm that turned a home game into a road game in Det with three days notice.
Back there four days later for Thanksgiving. Von Miller lost for the year.
Three straight division games against a division with one of the leagues best records.
Christmas Eve game where they got trapped in Chicago for the night, missed Christmas morning with their families and saw 31 people die in the region.
Damar.
Two more division games.
8-0 with +73 pt differential.
Arent both offensive lines shaky?
Cincy is the hotter team
Buffalo obviously has a great record but havent really impressed me offensively or defensively this year. They win games because Allen is on another planet but he does turn the ball over and vs a Joe Burrow QB I am not sure he can overcome that.
I'll go Cincy 27 BUf 24
Cincy is the hotter team
Buffalo obviously has a great record but havent really impressed me offensively or defensively this year. They win games because Allen is on another planet but he does turn the ball over and vs a Joe Burrow QB I am not sure he can overcome that.
I'll go Cincy 27 BUf 24
I think the 2020 team was the best, they just happened to have their worst game against KC in the playoffs. That might have been inexperience.
I think Josh Allen has been relatively the same throughout the run.
2020 was probably their worst running game. James Cook has been a solid addition.
I think the passing game weapons were getting more open in 2020 than in 21-22. Since its much of the same personnel, is that something we chalk up to Daboll, especially in light of how open the Giants castoff WRs have been?
2020 was easily the best OL. Allen had a lot more time to throw that year.
The run defense has been pretty bad throughout the run, though it rarely comes up, as getting to early leads has been frequent.
The defense has been prone to giving up big plays, but especially this year.
Pass rush has been consistently solid throughout, though probably would have been much better if Miller stayed healthy.
Coverage has kept up their end, despite some injury issues all year.
I guess they aren't a vastly different team this year, but it feels like they are a bit worse, maybe its missing Daboll and having a worse OL? Just feels to me like Buffalo should probably be an underdog this week.
The Bengals OL probably is even worse than what it was last year, especially if Jonah Williams is out, and I can't imagine playing with a fractured kneecap. But the defense is better at every single level than it was a year ago. The only other change is McPherson hasn't been as lights out as a kicker, but this feels like a better overall team than the one that was in the Super Bowl last year.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
It’s weird because I’m not disagreeing. The lack of Von Miller and Micah Hyde has made the defense seem vulnerable. And the offense seems to constantly shoot themselves in the foot with either bad turnovers or dropped passes. BUT, it’s amazing how they can look out of sorts and you look up and they’ve scored 28+ points and held their opponents under 20.
Here are some comparisons. The first number for each is points scored each of the last 6 weeks, second number is points given up:
Buffalo
Wild Card: 34/31
Week 18: 35/23
Week 17: -
Week 16: 35/13
Week 15: 32/29
Week 14: 20/12
AVG: 31.2/21.6
Chiefs
Wild Card: -
Week 18: 31/13
Week 17: 27/24
Week 16: 24/10
Week 15: 30/24
Week 14: 34/28
AVG: 29.2/19.8
Bengals
Wild Card: 24/17
Week 18: 27/16
Week 17: -
Week 16: 22/18
Week 15: 34/23
Week 14: 23/10
AVG: 26/16.8
So yeah, they’ve looked “off” and absolutely have not put everything together and played a great game in quite a while (though the one against lowly Chicago was pretty good), but yet they have still put up more points than both the Chiefs and Bengals over the last 6 weeks and have given up just a couple of more points a game than the Chiefs over that span. The Bengals have had the better defense by quite a bit, but have scored fewer points by quite a bit as well.
If they play as sloppy as they have been, then yes, I think they lose. But I think the numbers they’ve put up despite all their sloppiness show that they also have the highest ceiling of any team and have a larger margin of error each game than other teams as well.
facook
Footballguy
If that's what they want they are getting it. 72% of bets at DK on Cinci (not Vegas, but you get the point). Tough for me to back a public underdog, though my brain says Cinci is the side as well.
The Duff Man
Footballguy
Dumb guy post 
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Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
Huh? My brother handles the paperwork for our tickets, but don't you get your actual seats reserved? I recall him mentioning a couple weeks ago he got invoiced for the playoff tickets. Also, individual tickets for all three playoff games went on sale to season ticket holders on 12/16.I guess I won’t be attending unless I buy on secondary market. Once again a kerfuffle in helping season ticket holders have the opportunity to buy seats
The Duff Man
Footballguy
I am dumb. Ignore. Was talking about Atlanta sale. Seeing red and in the wrong place to postHuh? My brother handles the paperwork for our tickets, but don't you get your actual seats reserved? I recall him mentioning a couple weeks ago he got invoiced for the playoff tickets. Also, individual tickets for all three playoff games went on sale to season ticket holders on 12/16.I guess I won’t be attending unless I buy on secondary market. Once again a kerfuffle in helping season ticket holders have the opportunity to buy seats
Grigs Allmoon
Footballguy
k, yeah. I noticed that with the Atlanta thing. Sold out long before our window was even open. Everything was already on the secondary market for 3-4 times as much. Such a great system...I am dumb. Ignore. Was talking about Atlanta sale. Seeing red and in the wrong place to postHuh? My brother handles the paperwork for our tickets, but don't you get your actual seats reserved? I recall him mentioning a couple weeks ago he got invoiced for the playoff tickets. Also, individual tickets for all three playoff games went on sale to season ticket holders on 12/16.I guess I won’t be attending unless I buy on secondary market. Once again a kerfuffle in helping season ticket holders have the opportunity to buy seats
Timmay
Footballguy
Up to +5.5 now. I hope you didn't grab it at 5.
Sidenote that doesn't really matter but thought it was interesting: When Ja'Marr Chase has played this season, Bengals have never lost by more than 3 points.
ChiefD
Footballguy
My biggest pet peeve and why sports teams can suck it. As a casual fan forget about ever paying face value for a ticket ever again. They've basically priced out a massive part of their fan base.k, yeah. I noticed that with the Atlanta thing. Sold out long before our window was even open. Everything was already on the secondary market for 3-4 times as much. Such a great system...I am dumb. Ignore. Was talking about Atlanta sale. Seeing red and in the wrong place to postHuh? My brother handles the paperwork for our tickets, but don't you get your actual seats reserved? I recall him mentioning a couple weeks ago he got invoiced for the playoff tickets. Also, individual tickets for all three playoff games went on sale to season ticket holders on 12/16.I guess I won’t be attending unless I buy on secondary market. Once again a kerfuffle in helping season ticket holders have the opportunity to buy seats
themeistersinger
Footballguy
ChiefD
Footballguy
The Cheffers effect.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Well, the good news is that there seems to be plenty of Chiefs tickets for the potential Bills/Chiefs matchup in Atlanta:My biggest pet peeve and why sports teams can suck it. As a casual fan forget about ever paying face value for a ticket ever again. They've basically priced out a massive part of their fan base.k, yeah. I noticed that with the Atlanta thing. Sold out long before our window was even open. Everything was already on the secondary market for 3-4 times as much. Such a great system...I am dumb. Ignore. Was talking about Atlanta sale. Seeing red and in the wrong place to postHuh? My brother handles the paperwork for our tickets, but don't you get your actual seats reserved? I recall him mentioning a couple weeks ago he got invoiced for the playoff tickets. Also, individual tickets for all three playoff games went on sale to season ticket holders on 12/16.I guess I won’t be attending unless I buy on secondary market. Once again a kerfuffle in helping season ticket holders have the opportunity to buy seats
Link
The Duff Man
Footballguy
And the Bills have never lost with Poyer in the lineup. Seems like we should all lock in a Bills 1-3 point win!
IvanKaramazov
Footballguy
The home team should rightly be favored in this game, but 5.5 points is too much. There's not that much separating these two teams.
eighsse2
Footballguy
I agree with the general sentiment I'm seeing around here: that the spread is a bit too much, and seems like it should be in the 2.5-4.0 range. But I think the way we (the Bengals) looked against Baltimore has a lot to do with it. Normally one game doesn't change the outlook much, but who knows. Imagine if the Ravens had Jackson, and imagine if we didn't get a [essentially...] 14-point play fall into our lap. Could have been a drubbing. Losing a third starting offensive lineman might be worth a 0.5 point.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Bengals +205 on the ML looks very tempting.
ChiefD
Footballguy
Yeah. I might take a look at that and add a couple easy parlay selections for a couple bucks.
free $ get it
The BUF defense has been vulnerable at times, including last week versus Skylar who should've had a 300 yard game and more points if not for the drops by Waddle and others. In the canceled game, Burrow was moving the offense easily. I think BUF will need to blitz a little more than usual to slow down Burrow.
But Allen is in peak form and could've had 450 yards if not for the drops and near catches. I don't blame him for the 2nd INT, there was DPI, and Howard made a great play on the other INT.
BUF 41 - CIN 35
Timmay
Footballguy
Please please please blitz Joey B, it will not end well for Buffalo. Burrow is one of if not the best QB against the blitz. 82.8 PFF grade, 110.8 passer rating, 63.6% comp %.
GroveDiesel
Footballguy
Yeah, I actually think they go the other way and rarely blitz. In fact, will likely see a page out of Cinci’s book from their game against the Chiefs last year and see quite a few 3 person rushes. Burrow has been absolutely atrocious against 3 man rushes.
eighsse2
Footballguy
*when he actually does get the ball out
TampaMike19
Footballguy
Bills are the team of destiny this year post-Damar. They will be fired up by whatever they have planned.
Buffalo 23 Cincy 20
Buffalo 23 Cincy 20
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
Is DK book in Ohio? Ohio just legalized sports betting so dunno if that is goosing those numbers (though surely not the line). And yeah I am shocked it has moved all the way to 5 1/2
-QG
FairWarning
Footballguy
Up to 6 at a lot of shops. Came out that three OL for Cinn may be out.
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