Do you use Vegas odds to predict... (1 Viewer)

[ldizzle]

I used the odds last year to try and pick defenses and it worked good. basically I looked at the over/under and total points and then used my own judgement.

Vegas.com current superbowl odds as of 8/5/12

NE 9/2

GB 6/1

SF 8/1

PHI 10/1?

I get new england and green bay they have awesome offenses. san francisco has an awesome defense ,and then there's philly

dont get me wrong, they have a lot of talent on defense and offense.

but do you think the odds are suggesting a NE or GB type of offensive production, or a dominant SF type defense, or neither?

 

[Chazzhawk]

Hell no!!! They are in the business of making money, not putting out the truest odds.

 

[flc735]

they do know more than we do. i would say trusting their numbers over your own as an above average nfl fan would give you more accurate results.

usually the ones that make the least sense are the most accurate. if the over/under on the det/gb game is 41, that seems too low to be true. they wouldn't do something like that unless they know something that we don't. they are practically begging us to take the over which means it is not likely to happen

 

[packseasontix]

Odds are not set in stone they can fluctuate based on where money is going, hence why you see the Super Bowl line move throughout the week up to the game.

 

[CalvinJ55]

Yes, absolutely I use Vegas odds

 

[32 Counter Pass]

I would only refer to vegas odds if I was absolutely brain locked on a WDIS player. If vegas has the O/U for the game of player A at a high number, and the O/U on player B at a low number I would take that into considration. Again, only if brain locked...

 

[Chazzhawk]

they do know more than we do. i would say trusting their numbers over your own as an above average nfl fan would give you more accurate results.

usually the ones that make the least sense are the most accurate. if the over/under on the det/gb game is 41, that seems too low to be true. they wouldn't do something like that unless they know something that we don't. they are practically begging us to take the over which means it is not likely to happen

That is a common mistake when you think about Vegas odds for individual games, they could care less about how close they are to over/unders, or point spreads, all they want is the money to be even on both sides and they make money off the juice.

 

[Johnny Blood]

Exactly. Vegas odds are set by people who know how to balance out the popular opinion on any outcome. What they know better than you is the statistical distribution of opinions in in the betting public.

That does not necessarily mean they are useless, but Chazzhawk is right.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I always trust people who put their money where their mouths are as opposed to people who just run off at the mouth.

 

[Tanner9919]

yes, I use them every week...high O/U means good QB stats and you're kicker is probably in for a BIG game.

conversely, I wouldn't use a defense in a game with a high O/U..

 

[TheWick]

Exactly. Vegas odds are set by people who know how to balance out the popular opinion on any outcome. What they know better than you is the statistical distribution of opinions in in the betting public. That does not necessarily mean they are useless, but Chazzhawk is right.

This holds specifically true on futures bets like the OP posted. They can move a considerable amount to limit the books exposure to one side. On a week to week game the closing line on over/unders are pretty sharp if not all the money being put on one side by smart betters will put the number where it should be. They aren't worried about what joe schmoe $50 bet guy is betting on. If they put out a crappy line trying to fool the public they will get crushed.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

On a week to week game the closing line on over/unders are pretty sharp if not all the money being put on one side by smart betters will put the number where it should be. They aren't worried about what joe schmoe $50 bet guy is betting on. If they put out a crappy line trying to fool the public they will get crushed.

Exactly. Anything that's too far off will get crushed so those lines end up pretty tight.

 

[CalvinJ55]

they do know more than we do. i would say trusting their numbers over your own as an above average nfl fan would give you more accurate results.

usually the ones that make the least sense are the most accurate. if the over/under on the det/gb game is 41, that seems too low to be true. they wouldn't do something like that unless they know something that we don't. they are practically begging us to take the over which means it is not likely to happen

That is a common mistake when you think about Vegas odds for individual games, they could care less about how close they are to over/unders, or point spreads, all they want is the money to be even on both sides and they make money off the juice.

This is a common misconception about vegas odds. Their goal is more closely related to wanting the end results to be 50/50 vs. the line. They don't want even money on both sides, they understand EV and are a little more savvy than that. With that said, betting limits are high on NFL games and most of the lines are sharp meaning they are extremely reliable.