Projected Offenses Your Team Defense Does Not Want to Face (1 Viewer)

[MrJimiT]

Based on the list that Scoresman put together in https://forums.footballguys.com/threads/predicting-the-top-offenses.812799/ I decided to look at it in a different manner. So using team offensive projections, I rated the teams top to bottom by offensive yards projected, offensive touchdowns projected, and a combined offensive interceptions x 2 plus offensive sacks allowed. Ultimately what I was aiming to gauge from top down, were the offenses you want your Team Defense to least (not want to) face in any given week based on offensive projections.

The premise was to 1) gauge the offensive yards as to how prolific an offense can move up and down the field,
2) gauge the potential offensive scoring ability via the offensive touchdown,
3) gauge which offenses give up the most interceptions and sacks using what is normally used as Team Defense scoring (Interception 2 pts, Sacks 1 pt).

I ranked the 3 stat columns and then summarized the total rankings to come up with the following list:

team	Off Yds	Off TDs	Off Int/Sack (Int*2 + Sacks)
DET	6879.7​	54.2​	49.1​
SF	6646​	54.6​	52.4​
KC	6912.4​	50.5​	52.7​
BAL	6407.2​	48.9​	48.5​
MIA	6847.2​	49​	52.6​
BUF	6486.2​	45.2​	51.2​
DAL	6468​	46.4​	52.2​
HOU	6458.2​	42.4​	51.6​
PHI	6405.2​	47.7​	54.1​
GB	6383.1​	46.2​	52.5​
LAR	6512.8​	45.8​	57.3​
ATL	6584.1​	44.5​	59.2​
LAC	5953.5​	42.4​	42.8​
NYJ	6483.6​	43.8​	56.5​
CIN	6331.4​	45.4​	59.3​
PIT	6035.1​	40.6​	51.5​
JAX	6278.2​	40.5​	55.2​
ARI	6257.2​	41.2​	55.8​
NO	5866.8​	37.5​	49.4​
CHI	6297.8​	40​	57.9​
SEA	6158.4​	39​	54.8​
CLE	6387.5​	41.9​	64.7​
IND	6166.3​	41.4​	60.5​
LV	5580.4​	33.6​	55.3​
TB	5784.6​	36.4​	58.6​
WAS	6046.4​	38.2​	66​
MIN	6257​	36.3​	69.6​
CAR	5848.1​	32.9​	59.4​
TEN	5832.3​	33.5​	59.5​
DEN	5618.2​	32.8​	61.7​
NYG	5797.6​	31.2​	65.5​
NE	5577​	30​	59.8​

 

[Scoresman]

This is good stuff. Thanks.

If I'm reading this correctly, MIN is the team you should want to face the most as a defense. That is a bit unexpected.

It would be nice to use this to create a table that incorporates each DEF's schedule to come up with a total estimated points, or an average for each DEF.

 

[MrJimiT]

This is good stuff. Thanks.

If I'm reading this correctly, MIN is the team you should want to face the most as a defense. That is a bit unexpected.

It would be nice to use this to create a table that incorporates each DEF's schedule to come up with a total estimated points, or an average for each DEF.

According to this study (list), I don't see Minnesota at the very bottom (i.e. New England) but I do see the Vikings in the bottom tier of offenses as it "might" relate to Team Defense points scored. But you do bring up something that I should look more closely at. Minnesota's offense rates mid-tier. But their projected sack's and interceptions thrown brings them down some. Is that due to a weaker offensive line OR poor QB play? Good questions to look into!!