Scoresman
Footballguy
One of the main things that makes drafting a particular player attractive is if he plays on a top offense. This would suggest that accurately predicting who the top offenses are going to be should be a valuable exercise.
I do my projections by team so I can easily see where I have each team projected in terms of total yards. The table below shows last year's offensive rank vs what I'm predicting this year and the change.
History tells us that a little more than half of teams in the top ten go on to repeat the next year. I have 7 of 10 repeating which is a bit high. I could see the Bills easily falling out too with maybe Houston replacing them.
Anyway, this can be a discussion of which offenses you think will enter the top ten and which you think will not repeat.
Teams I currently have emerging as a new top 10 offense:
Atlanta: With a decent coaching staff that should actually know how to use their talent, this can easily be a top 10 offense.
Chicago: This is a tough one to predict because it all falls on the success of Caleb Williams, but the tools are all there for him to succeed.
Cleveland: This is the one I struggle with the most. Last year, Cleveland ran the most offensive plays in the league by a wide margin. But the chaos produced with all the injuries and Flacco becoming a QB god for a few games is unlikely to be reproduced. I still have their total offensive plays high though, which is propelling them into the top 10.
Teams I have leaving the top 10:
Dallas: They barely count as I have them ranked 11th. There are many reasons I suspect them to decline a bit, Uncertain running game, uncertainty in the O-line, and more. Just enough for them to decline a bit.
Los Angeles Rams: Again, not a huge decline in 7th to 12th this is mainly just regression after what I feel was an overachieving year last year. Also, I have doubts on Stafford and Kyree's durability.
Minnesota: From 10th to 20th. Having Kirk Cousins leave will do this to you. 20th may be a bit harsh, but I dont think it's an unpopular opinion that this offense declines a bit.
I need to relook at some of these because at this high a level, I don't really see Houston losing a spot. If anything, they should be better. Same with Green Bay. I also think I have Washington and Las Vegas too low.
I do my projections by team so I can easily see where I have each team projected in terms of total yards. The table below shows last year's offensive rank vs what I'm predicting this year and the change.
History tells us that a little more than half of teams in the top ten go on to repeat the next year. I have 7 of 10 repeating which is a bit high. I could see the Bills easily falling out too with maybe Houston replacing them.
Anyway, this can be a discussion of which offenses you think will enter the top ten and which you think will not repeat.
Teams I currently have emerging as a new top 10 offense:
Atlanta: With a decent coaching staff that should actually know how to use their talent, this can easily be a top 10 offense.
Chicago: This is a tough one to predict because it all falls on the success of Caleb Williams, but the tools are all there for him to succeed.
Cleveland: This is the one I struggle with the most. Last year, Cleveland ran the most offensive plays in the league by a wide margin. But the chaos produced with all the injuries and Flacco becoming a QB god for a few games is unlikely to be reproduced. I still have their total offensive plays high though, which is propelling them into the top 10.
Teams I have leaving the top 10:
Dallas: They barely count as I have them ranked 11th. There are many reasons I suspect them to decline a bit, Uncertain running game, uncertainty in the O-line, and more. Just enough for them to decline a bit.
Los Angeles Rams: Again, not a huge decline in 7th to 12th this is mainly just regression after what I feel was an overachieving year last year. Also, I have doubts on Stafford and Kyree's durability.
Minnesota: From 10th to 20th. Having Kirk Cousins leave will do this to you. 20th may be a bit harsh, but I dont think it's an unpopular opinion that this offense declines a bit.
I need to relook at some of these because at this high a level, I don't really see Houston losing a spot. If anything, they should be better. Same with Green Bay. I also think I have Washington and Las Vegas too low.
TEAM | 2023 Offensive Ranking | 2024 Predicted Ranking (Scoresman) | Delta |
Detroit Lions | 3 | 1 | 2 |
San Francisco 49ers | 2 | 2 | - |
Miami Dolphins | 1 | 3 | (2) |
Atlanta Falcons | 17 | 4 | 13 |
Baltimore Ravens | 6 | 5 | 1 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 8 | 6 | 2 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 9 | 7 | 2 |
Buffalo Bills | 4 | 8 | (4) |
Chicago Bears | 20 | 9 | 11 |
Cleveland Browns | 16 | 10 | 6 |
Dallas Cowboys | 5 | 11 | (6) |
Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 12 | (5) |
Houston Texans | 12 | 13 | (1) |
Arizona Cardinals | 19 | 14 | 5 |
Indianapolis Colts | 15 | 15 | - |
Green Bay Packers | 11 | 16 | (5) |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 13 | 17 | (4) |
New York Jets | 31 | 18 | 13 |
Seattle Seahawks | 21 | 19 | 2 |
Minnesota Vikings | 10 | 20 | (10) |
Cincinnati Bengals | 22 | 21 | 1 |
Los Angeles Chargers | 18 | 22 | (4) |
Washington Commanders | 24 | 23 | 1 |
Pittsburgh Steelers | 25 | 24 | 1 |
New Orleans Saints | 14 | 25 | (11) |
Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 | 26 | (3) |
Denver Broncos | 26 | 27 | (1) |
New England Patriots | 30 | 28 | 2 |
Carolina Panthers | 32 | 29 | 3 |
Las Vegas Raiders | 27 | 30 | (3) |
Tennessee Titans | 28 | 31 | (3) |
New York Giants | 29 | 32 | (3) |
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