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Predicting the Top Offenses (1 Viewer)

Scoresman

Footballguy
One of the main things that makes drafting a particular player attractive is if he plays on a top offense. This would suggest that accurately predicting who the top offenses are going to be should be a valuable exercise.

I do my projections by team so I can easily see where I have each team projected in terms of total yards. The table below shows last year's offensive rank vs what I'm predicting this year and the change.

History tells us that a little more than half of teams in the top ten go on to repeat the next year. I have 7 of 10 repeating which is a bit high. I could see the Bills easily falling out too with maybe Houston replacing them.

Anyway, this can be a discussion of which offenses you think will enter the top ten and which you think will not repeat.

Teams I currently have emerging as a new top 10 offense:

Atlanta: With a decent coaching staff that should actually know how to use their talent, this can easily be a top 10 offense.
Chicago: This is a tough one to predict because it all falls on the success of Caleb Williams, but the tools are all there for him to succeed.
Cleveland: This is the one I struggle with the most. Last year, Cleveland ran the most offensive plays in the league by a wide margin. But the chaos produced with all the injuries and Flacco becoming a QB god for a few games is unlikely to be reproduced. I still have their total offensive plays high though, which is propelling them into the top 10.

Teams I have leaving the top 10:

Dallas: They barely count as I have them ranked 11th. There are many reasons I suspect them to decline a bit, Uncertain running game, uncertainty in the O-line, and more. Just enough for them to decline a bit.
Los Angeles Rams: Again, not a huge decline in 7th to 12th this is mainly just regression after what I feel was an overachieving year last year. Also, I have doubts on Stafford and Kyree's durability.
Minnesota: From 10th to 20th. Having Kirk Cousins leave will do this to you. 20th may be a bit harsh, but I dont think it's an unpopular opinion that this offense declines a bit.

I need to relook at some of these because at this high a level, I don't really see Houston losing a spot. If anything, they should be better. Same with Green Bay. I also think I have Washington and Las Vegas too low.


TEAM2023 Offensive Ranking2024 Predicted Ranking (Scoresman)Delta
Detroit Lions3
1​
2
San Francisco 49ers2
2​
-
Miami Dolphins1
3​
(2)
Atlanta Falcons17
4​
13
Baltimore Ravens6
5​
1
Philadelphia Eagles8
6​
2
Kansas City Chiefs9
7​
2
Buffalo Bills4
8​
(4)
Chicago Bears20
9​
11
Cleveland Browns16
10​
6
Dallas Cowboys5
11​
(6)
Los Angeles Rams7
12​
(5)
Houston Texans12
13​
(1)
Arizona Cardinals19
14​
5
Indianapolis Colts15
15​
-
Green Bay Packers11
16​
(5)
Jacksonville Jaguars13
17​
(4)
New York Jets31
18​
13
Seattle Seahawks21
19​
2
Minnesota Vikings10
20​
(10)
Cincinnati Bengals22
21​
1
Los Angeles Chargers18
22​
(4)
Washington Commanders24
23​
1
Pittsburgh Steelers25
24​
1
New Orleans Saints14
25​
(11)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers23
26​
(3)
Denver Broncos26
27​
(1)
New England Patriots30
28​
2
Carolina Panthers32
29​
3
Las Vegas Raiders27
30​
(3)
Tennessee Titans28
31​
(3)
New York Giants29
32​
(3)
 
Last edited:
I'm on board with your rankings for the most part. If I had to move one up and move one down, I'd go:

Up: Cincinnati Bengals with a healthy Burrow. They went off the radar for a full season last year but Burrow can easily get them back into the top 10.

Down: Cleveland. I don't see it. Chubb is a question mark, Cooper is another year older, Watson hasn't shown much to get excited about. They have some talent but I like other offenses more.
 
Very interesting, thanks for the effort!! Without any statistical list in front of me, it "feels" like Bears & Browns are too high and maybe Vikings & Saints may be a little low. But overall, looks like a solid assessment to me.

Would you be willing to share your projections with the board?
 
Very interesting, thanks for the effort!! Without any statistical list in front of me, it "feels" like Bears & Browns are too high and maybe Vikings & Saints may be a little low. But overall, looks like a solid assessment to me.

Would you be willing to share your projections with the board?

Perhaps in another thread, I'd be happy to share. I wasnt sure if we wanted a bunch of posts with everyone's personal projections/rankings though.

As for Cleveland, here's where I have problems. I have their total passing yards well within the last couple years' average. 3,653 total team passing yards vs. 3,700 last year. This is a bit higher than Watson has thrown previously but he has Jeudy this year who has high YPC so I cant justify reducing Watsons YPA any.

Rushing is a little more complicated. I have them at 2,273 rushing yards vs 2,017 last year. This is where the increase in rank comes from. The difference is in yards per attempt. Last year was an outlier for the Browns at 3.9 YPA. They are usually over 4.5. Sure losing Chubb impacts this, but they also had injuries to their O-line last year which should be resolved this year so I don't see how they don't increase their YPA closer to their averages. I didnt think going from 4.7 to 3.9 YPA in one season was all from losing Chubb.

The Browns ran 1,142 offensive plays last year which is insane. I reduced this down to 1,085 this year, in line with the year prior to that.
 
Have to disagree on the Rams, Kupp will be healthy along with Puca going to be tough to defend. Stafford injury possiblity always a little bit of a concern but they have Jimmy G who's the best backup they've had in years so even if Stafford goes down will still be decent. And Corum should be able to step in for Kyren too.
 
Curious as to your thoughts on GB. With they way they ended the season, plus another camp together, would think they would move up not down.
 
Very interesting, thanks for the effort!! Without any statistical list in front of me, it "feels" like Bears & Browns are too high and maybe Vikings & Saints may be a little low. But overall, looks like a solid assessment to me.

Would you be willing to share your projections with the board?

Perhaps in another thread, I'd be happy to share. I wasnt sure if we wanted a bunch of posts with everyone's personal projections/rankings though.

As for Cleveland, here's where I have problems. I have their total passing yards well within the last couple years' average. 3,653 total team passing yards vs. 3,700 last year. This is a bit higher than Watson has thrown previously but he has Jeudy this year who has high YPC so I cant justify reducing Watsons YPA any.

Rushing is a little more complicated. I have them at 2,273 rushing yards vs 2,017 last year. This is where the increase in rank comes from. The difference is in yards per attempt. Last year was an outlier for the Browns at 3.9 YPA. They are usually over 4.5. Sure losing Chubb impacts this, but they also had injuries to their O-line last year which should be resolved this year so I don't see how they don't increase their YPA closer to their averages. I didnt think going from 4.7 to 3.9 YPA in one season was all from losing Chubb.

The Browns ran 1,142 offensive plays last year which is insane. I reduced this down to 1,085 this year, in line with the year prior to that.

Do you know why Cleveland ran so many offensive plays? Long drives? Fewer turnovers which meant they had more drives? It surprises me.
 
Have to disagree on the Rams, Kupp will be healthy along with Puca going to be tough to defend. Stafford injury possiblity always a little bit of a concern but they have Jimmy G who's the best backup they've had in years so even if Stafford goes down will still be decent. And Corum should be able to step in for Kyren too.

I have them pretty much repeating last year's yardage/offensive plays numbers. I think their decline in the rankings is more due to other teams simply passing them up. And sorry, but I dont share your optimism on Jimmy G putting up Stafford's numbers.

Last year the Rams were just ahead of KC and PHI for example. I don't think that continues.
 
Very interesting, thanks for the effort!! Without any statistical list in front of me, it "feels" like Bears & Browns are too high and maybe Vikings & Saints may be a little low. But overall, looks like a solid assessment to me.

Would you be willing to share your projections with the board?

Perhaps in another thread, I'd be happy to share. I wasnt sure if we wanted a bunch of posts with everyone's personal projections/rankings though.

As for Cleveland, here's where I have problems. I have their total passing yards well within the last couple years' average. 3,653 total team passing yards vs. 3,700 last year. This is a bit higher than Watson has thrown previously but he has Jeudy this year who has high YPC so I cant justify reducing Watsons YPA any.

Rushing is a little more complicated. I have them at 2,273 rushing yards vs 2,017 last year. This is where the increase in rank comes from. The difference is in yards per attempt. Last year was an outlier for the Browns at 3.9 YPA. They are usually over 4.5. Sure losing Chubb impacts this, but they also had injuries to their O-line last year which should be resolved this year so I don't see how they don't increase their YPA closer to their averages. I didnt think going from 4.7 to 3.9 YPA in one season was all from losing Chubb.

The Browns ran 1,142 offensive plays last year which is insane. I reduced this down to 1,085 this year, in line with the year prior to that.

Do you know why Cleveland ran so many offensive plays? Long drives? Fewer turnovers which meant they had more drives? It surprises me.

I asked this in the Cleveland thread and didnt get a satisfying answer. I dont think its any one thing. It's some combination of them typically running more plays than the average team (1,085 plays in 2022 for example), their excellent defense keeping their offense on the field, and the chaos with all the injuries and Flacco successfully chucking the ball over and over again.

Their increase in offensive plays last year happened entirely in the passing game. Their rushing plays held steady at 518, right around their average, but their passing plays leapt from 540 in 2022 to 627 in 2023. For 2024, I have them back down at 565.
 
Curious as to your thoughts on GB. With they way they ended the season, plus another camp together, would think they would move up not down.

I need to take another look at how I'm projecting Green Bay. I agree on paper, it makes no sense to have them losing 5 spots.

I can tell you, however, that I have their projected totals nearly identical to last year which also sounds right. I don't think they struggle to open the year like they did last year, but I also think they come back to earth a little bit from their amazing play late last year. Seems to be another instance of other teams around them getting better, passing them up.
 
@Scoresman do you build top down or bottom up?

I always start with projected team totals - total plays, YFS, pass/run split (passing att/rush att), and total pass-run-ret-def TDs.

Once I feel like I have the overall macro for every team, I sanity check the league totals vs the last 4 years. I want to make sure I’ve taken into account HC/OC/QB changes and how that will affect pace of play.

Only then do I start backfilling the individual players projections. I’ve tried both directions and I find bottom up (player projections first) leads to wrong conclusions.

:2cents:
 
@Scoresman do you build top down or bottom up?

I always start with projected team totals - total plays, YFS, pass/run split (passing att/rush att), and total pass-run-ret-def TDs.

Once I feel like I have the overall macro for every team, I sanity check the league totals vs the last 4 years. I want to make sure I’ve taken into account HC/OC/QB changes and how that will affect pace of play.

Only then do I start backfilling the individual players projections. I’ve tried both directions and I find bottom up (player projections first) leads to wrong conclusions.

:2cents:
Bottom up for the most part but I don’t necessarily feel strongly that it’s the best way to do it. What wrong conclusions did this lead to for you?

To start, I have last year’s data for each player and the last three season totals for each team. I also collect data on changes to the coaching staff and how that will change things, SOS, projected offensive line rankings compared to last year and the team’s projected defense this year vs. last year.

I start with the QB and project passing stats. Then I distribute those passing yards and TDs amongst receivers.

Then I move to the running game.

Finally, I sanity check the team totals against last year and ask myself if it makes sense for them to increase/decrease in each area. In particular, total offensive plays, pass/run splits and yard/TD totals.

When each team is done I look at league totals compared to last year and ask myself if it all makes sense in the aggregate.

For example, scoring has been historically down the last few years, but I expect a slight bump this year in general, so I’m looking for my league projection totals to reflect this.
 
Team yardage is an awesome indicator of QB fantasy performance. Last year, 10 of the top 12 teams had a QB in the top 12. The only ones that didn't were the Vikings (Cousins was QB4 when he went down) and Rams (happens when Stafford gets 6 fantasy points rushing). As for the other positions last year, total yardage seemed more important for TE's than RB or WR, which were pretty similar. When I get some time, I want to go back a handful of years and see how this plays out. Great thread, thanx!
 
Bottom up for the most part but I don’t necessarily feel strongly that it’s the best way to do it. What wrong conclusions did this lead to for you?

You seem like you have a solid methodology. Personally I need the limiting factors of "here's how many plays they should run, how many PA, how many rush attempts, how many offensive TDs they might score" before I get started. When I tried bottom up I would have too high of projections bc I misunderstood what their marketshare would be, what was likely to happen over 17 games - everyone gets banged up.

Dan Campbell tells his guys "the sooner you realize this (3rd week in July) is the best you're going to feel for the next 6 months, the better it will be for all of us." Unless you're elite having a once in a career season, every player has ebbs and flows.

Goff played 20 games last year: 2 elite, 4 more very good, 10 more good games, and was dog poo in 4 games (very good, good and good in his 3 playoff games.)
Lamar won the MVP and had 3 elite games, 4 more very good, 5 good games, and 6 average to poor (by his standard) games out of 18 total including the playoffs.

Go through any RB and WR game logs and the variance is pretty high. Although for fantasy purposes, I really don't want a good crank score (consistency); much more interested in guys who can go off and win the week for you.

Not to get off track and go on a tangent, but one thing I keep relearning every year is while TDs are not that sticky of a stat year over year, there are def guys who have a knack for it and guys who just have bad luck (every year? apparently.) I have to see it before I believe it. G Wilson, M Pittman, D London & K PItts haven't had the best situations but we have 11 seasons of data on those four: 0.21, 0.24, 0.18 & 0.11 TDs/game is no way to build a championship.

Adams, Conner, Ekeler, Evans, Henry, Jacobs, & Kamara, are all getting old, but they're still pretty good at getting you six points. That's 0.63, 0.67, 0.67, 0.61, 076, 0.63, 0.77 TDs/G if you're scoring at home. Reductive thinking - none of us play in TD only leagues anymore - but sometimes keep it simple stoopid is a good methodology to remember.
 
Personally I need the limiting factors of "here's how many plays they should run, how many PA, how many rush attempts, how many offensive TDs they might score" before I get started.

My sheet is set up to show this while I'm projecting the players. The very first things I enter in are QB pass attempts, and for RBs, run attempts. Then I have something at the bottom of the sheet adding it up and stacking it with the last few years totals.

You need to be looking at all of this together to really do it accurately. It's one of the reasons I'm not a big fan of all the individual player threads for projection purposes. Too much analysis done in a bubble without looking at the player's team's whole picture. I'll always remember someone here who posted that Tom Brady was going to bust his first year in TB, but at the same time in another thread was saying how he thought Mike Evans And Chris Godwin were both going to go off that year. Those two stances don't compute.
 
Not a Klint Kubiak fan I see? I think Fuaga fixes the line problems even if Ramczyk doesn't make it back and I think Kubiak will help, not hinder things. So, I am surprised to see a -11 projection for them.
 
Not a Klint Kubiak fan I see? I think Fuaga fixes the line problems even if Ramczyk doesn't make it back and I think Kubiak will help, not hinder things. So, I am surprised to see a -11 projection for them.

Dennis Allen is not a good coach and Derek Carr does not inspire either. Their offensive line will be a complete disaster. Most record projections I see have them with a losing record.

If anything, I'll probably project them a little higher because they have one of the easiest schedules, but I don't see much improvement here.
 
Not a Klint Kubiak fan I see? I think Fuaga fixes the line problems even if Ramczyk doesn't make it back and I think Kubiak will help, not hinder things. So, I am surprised to see a -11 projection for them.

Dennis Allen is not a good coach and Derek Carr does not inspire either. Their offensive line will be a complete disaster. Most record projections I see have them with a losing record.

If anything, I'll probably project them a little higher because they have one of the easiest schedules, but I don't see much improvement here.
You certainly may be right. I think I expect more from the line than you do, especially with Kubiak calling the plays, a full year of Kamara and a year of experience for Kendre Miller.
 
Not a Klint Kubiak fan I see? I think Fuaga fixes the line problems even if Ramczyk doesn't make it back and I think Kubiak will help, not hinder things. So, I am surprised to see a -11 projection for them.

Dennis Allen is not a good coach and Derek Carr does not inspire either. Their offensive line will be a complete disaster. Most record projections I see have them with a losing record.

If anything, I'll probably project them a little higher because they have one of the easiest schedules, but I don't see much improvement here.
You certainly may be right. I think I expect more from the line than you do, especially with Kubiak calling the plays, a full year of Kamara and a year of experience for Kendre Miller.

One thing that is interesting about the Saints is that they ran 1,086 plays last year, which is high for a middling team. To compare, the years before this they ran 977 and 1,014. It corresponds to Allen starting at coach, but it's still high. Not a lot of data on how Kubiak will influence pace. I have them at 1,032 plays this year.
 
but one thing I keep relearning every year is while TDs are not that sticky of a stat year over year, there are def guys who have a knack for it and guys who just have bad luck (every year? apparently.) I have to see it before I believe it
This has always been an interesting subject to me. I read a lot of fantasy articles that highlight "regression to the mean" when it comes to out of whack TD totals, but it's also true that some guys have a nose for the end zone and some don't. And maybe their QBs and OCs seem to know it.
 
Based on your assessment, this tells me to be aggressive drafting LaPorta and maybe Amon Ra should be WR3 after Hill and Lamb. These guys are the far and away clear top 2 targets on the #1 projected offense. It's actually kind of crazy how concentrated this passing offense is. Both players could absolutely exceed last year's production.
 
I went back 5 years to see if anything stood out
- Since Lamar took over in 2019, the Ravens offense is impossible to figure out. They have moved up or down 10 or more places in each of his 5 seasons.
- The Jets are the only team to remain bottom 8. In fact, the last time they were out of the bottom 8 was 2015, when they were #10 led by Fitzmagic.
- The Chiefs are the only team to remain top 9. In fact, the last time they were out of the top 9 was 2016, the year before Mahomie showed up.
- Prior to the Dolphins top finish in 2023, the Chiefs and Cowboys alternated the top finish for 5 years.
 
@Scoresman you're like the only one on earth to expect the Titans O to be worse.
I'm reading 28 to 31. Am I reading that right?

This is yardage based, I have them going from 3,067 passing yards last year, to 3,228. Rushing I have them at 1,713 down from 1,846 last year. Slight uptick in total offensive plays. I do have them scoring a few more TDs. This is with an O-line that is still rebuilding, and a difficult schedule.

I could probably increase this a bit and I very well might, but when I look at individual player totals that make up these sums, it seems right.
 
@Scoresman you're like the only one on earth to expect the Titans O to be worse.
I'm reading 28 to 31. Am I reading that right?

This is yardage based, I have them going from 3,067 passing yards last year, to 3,228. Rushing I have them at 1,713 down from 1,846 last year. Slight uptick in total offensive plays. I do have them scoring a few more TDs. This is with an O-line that is still rebuilding, and a difficult schedule.

I could probably increase this a bit and I very well might, but when I look at individual player totals that make up these sums, it seems right.
Ok thanks for explaining
 
Based on your assessment, this tells me to be aggressive drafting LaPorta and maybe Amon Ra should be WR3 after Hill and Lamb. These guys are the far and away clear top 2 targets on the #1 projected offense. It's actually kind of crazy how concentrated this passing offense is. Both players could absolutely exceed last year's production.

That's actually exactly where my rankings have LaPorta and Amon-Ra. Not sure it'll end up this way come draft time.
 
The average number of offensive plays for the last 3 seasons of 17 games is 1072.

63 plays per game.

I think this includes sacks and possibly penalties. I'm at 1,030 average with my 2024 projections, but that only counts non-sack/penalty plays. Not including them, the NFL average is about 1,020-1030. (2020 was an abnormally low 994).

I spent way too long trying to figure out why the totals for things like this didn't match the individual pass/run stats.
 

According to this the total penalties in a season was about 120. But mqybe thats the wrong way to do it? Counts both teams penalties twice I think then?

Im not sure.

If that was ir then each team averages 120 penalties to5al per season or 7 per game in 2023.

If ir is counting them twice then its half of that.

Not sure how much it changes from season to season but if this is right something like 7 of those plays per game are penalties.

If you really get granular subtract the average penalties declined.

I think you want sacks in your projections for QB stats. Even though the receivers still get those yards.
 
I think you want sacks in your projections for QB stats. Even though the receivers still get those yards.

I've struggled with this when making projections. When you look at player vs. team stats on pro football reference, the individual player stats don't add up to the team stats. I figured out a while ago that the difference is because of sack lost yardage. For example, last year the Miami Dolphins as a team threw 566 times for 4,514 yards. But if you add up all the individual QB stats, they threw 566 times for 4,698 yards. So they counts sacks as a pass attempt, but don't penalize the yardage for the player.

Since I do a lot of comparing to previous year's stats using this site, I wanted to keep it apples to apples so I don't include sack lost yardage in individual QB yard projections. I don't think either way it would throw the rankings off too much.
 
Have to disagree on the Rams, Kupp will be healthy along with Puca going to be tough to defend. Stafford injury possiblity always a little bit of a concern but they have Jimmy G who's the best backup they've had in years so even if Stafford goes down will still be decent. And Corum should be able to step in for Kyren too.
Ummm... You're forgetting about Brett Rypien
 
Nice work. I really like the Falcons offense too this year and want as many pieces of it as I can in redraft.

4th seems high though, that's a GIGANTIC jump. COuld see them in the 5-10 range, and Bijan/London/Pitts having monster years.
 
G Wilson, M Pittman, D London & K PItts haven't had the best situations but we have 11 seasons of data on those four: 0.21, 0.24, 0.18 & 0.11 TDs/game is no way to build a championship.
All of these players have had mostly dreadful quarterbacking, and that is supposed to change this year.

I am certainly not expecting them to be among the TD leaders at WR, but we can't assume past performance will hold given the changes in circumstances.
 
Based on your assessment, this tells me to be aggressive drafting LaPorta and maybe Amon Ra should be WR3 after Hill and Lamb. These guys are the far and away clear top 2 targets on the #1 projected offense. It's actually kind of crazy how concentrated this passing offense is. Both players could absolutely exceed last year's production.
It could also mean Jameson Williams takes a huge leap in production.
 
Updated table as I've been updating projections, along with Vegas scoring prop ranks. Not quite apples to apples since mine is based on yards, but close enough.

I struggle projecting Cincinnati. I have them improving from 2023 and even surpassing 2022's yardage totals, but it doesn't seem like enough. Vegas thinks they should be higher, but I feel like any higher and I'm projecting everyone at their near ceilings. Couple this with Cincy being notorious for starting seasons out slow under Zac Taylor, and I'm hesitant to really improve on their numbers.

I still feel like I need to bump KC, GB and NYJ a bit.


TEAM2024 Total Yards2024 Rank2024 Vegas
Detroit Lions6,523
1​
2​
San Francisco 49ers6,485
2​
1​
Miami Dolphins6,449
3​
7​
Buffalo Bills6,351
4​
4​
Baltimore Ravens6,297
5​
9​
Dallas Cowboys6,227
6​
5​
Kansas City Chiefs6,141
7​
3​
Atlanta Falcons6,117
8​
13​
Philadelphia Eagles6,102
9​
6​
Indianapolis Colts6,011
10​
17​
Houston Texans5,961
11​
10​
Los Angeles Rams5,924
12​
12​
Chicago Bears5,881
13​
16​
Arizona Cardinals5,876
14​
19​
Green Bay Packers5,838
15​
11​
Cleveland Browns5,830
16​
18​
Cincinnati Bengals5,828
17​
8​
Seattle Seahawks5,796
18​
20​
Jacksonville Jaguars5,665
19​
15​
Los Angeles Chargers5,608
20​
21​
Minnesota Vikings5,586
21​
22​
Washington Commanders5,573
22​
26​
New York Jets5,509
23​
14​
Pittsburgh Steelers5,477
24​
24​
New Orleans Saints5,417
25​
25​
Tampa Bay Buccaneers5,336
26​
23​
Tennessee Titans5,229
30​
27​
Las Vegas Raiders5,214
27​
28​
New England Patriots5,205
28​
32​
Denver Broncos5,135
29​
31​
Carolina Panthers5,006
31​
30​
New York Giants4,623
32​
29​
 
Detroit, SF and Miami all had over 6,700 yards of total offense last season. With the emergence of Jamo and Gibbs getting more touches, the Lions offense will be even much more explosive. I see those three top offenses still cracking 6700 yards, with Detroit stepping into the more historic territory of 7000 yards. Those three offenses are heads and tails better than others because they are unstoppable in running and passing the ball.
 
Updated table as I've been updating projections, along with Vegas scoring prop ranks. Not quite apples to apples since mine is based on yards, but close enough.

I struggle projecting Cincinnati. I have them improving from 2023 and even surpassing 2022's yardage totals, but it doesn't seem like enough. Vegas thinks they should be higher, but I feel like any higher and I'm projecting everyone at their near ceilings. Couple this with Cincy being notorious for starting seasons out slow under Zac Taylor, and I'm hesitant to really improve on their numbers.

I still feel like I need to bump KC, GB and NYJ a bit.


TEAM2024 Total Yards2024 Rank2024 Vegas
Detroit Lions6,523
1​
2​
San Francisco 49ers6,485
2​
1​
Miami Dolphins6,449
3​
7​
Buffalo Bills6,351
4​
4​
Baltimore Ravens6,297
5​
9​
Dallas Cowboys6,227
6​
5​
Kansas City Chiefs6,141
7​
3​
Atlanta Falcons6,117
8​
13​
Philadelphia Eagles6,102
9​
6​
Indianapolis Colts6,011
10​
17​
Houston Texans5,961
11​
10​
Los Angeles Rams5,924
12​
12​
Chicago Bears5,881
13​
16​
Arizona Cardinals5,876
14​
19​
Green Bay Packers5,838
15​
11​
Cleveland Browns5,830
16​
18​
Cincinnati Bengals5,828
17​
8​
Seattle Seahawks5,796
18​
20​
Jacksonville Jaguars5,665
19​
15​
Los Angeles Chargers5,608
20​
21​
Minnesota Vikings5,586
21​
22​
Washington Commanders5,573
22​
26​
New York Jets5,509
23​
14​
Pittsburgh Steelers5,477
24​
24​
New Orleans Saints5,417
25​
25​
Tampa Bay Buccaneers5,336
26​
23​
Tennessee Titans5,229
30​
27​
Las Vegas Raiders5,214
27​
28​
New England Patriots5,205
28​
32​
Denver Broncos5,135
29​
31​
Carolina Panthers5,006
31​
30​
New York Giants4,623
32​
29​
This feels much better. Atlanta dropped a bit, Dallas upped a bit.

Indy over Houston feels weird to me, but overall that's a solid list and I've been basically avoiding every player on those bottom 5 teams in drafts so far at their current adp
 
Updated table as I've been updating projections, along with Vegas scoring prop ranks. Not quite apples to apples since mine is based on yards, but close enough.

I struggle projecting Cincinnati. I have them improving from 2023 and even surpassing 2022's yardage totals, but it doesn't seem like enough. Vegas thinks they should be higher, but I feel like any higher and I'm projecting everyone at their near ceilings. Couple this with Cincy being notorious for starting seasons out slow under Zac Taylor, and I'm hesitant to really improve on their numbers.

I still feel like I need to bump KC, GB and NYJ a bit.


TEAM2024 Total Yards2024 Rank2024 Vegas
Detroit Lions6,523
1​
2​
San Francisco 49ers6,485
2​
1​
Miami Dolphins6,449
3​
7​
Buffalo Bills6,351
4​
4​
Baltimore Ravens6,297
5​
9​
Dallas Cowboys6,227
6​
5​
Kansas City Chiefs6,141
7​
3​
Atlanta Falcons6,117
8​
13​
Philadelphia Eagles6,102
9​
6​
Indianapolis Colts6,011
10​
17​
Houston Texans5,961
11​
10​
Los Angeles Rams5,924
12​
12​
Chicago Bears5,881
13​
16​
Arizona Cardinals5,876
14​
19​
Green Bay Packers5,838
15​
11​
Cleveland Browns5,830
16​
18​
Cincinnati Bengals5,828
17​
8​
Seattle Seahawks5,796
18​
20​
Jacksonville Jaguars5,665
19​
15​
Los Angeles Chargers5,608
20​
21​
Minnesota Vikings5,586
21​
22​
Washington Commanders5,573
22​
26​
New York Jets5,509
23​
14​
Pittsburgh Steelers5,477
24​
24​
New Orleans Saints5,417
25​
25​
Tampa Bay Buccaneers5,336
26​
23​
Tennessee Titans5,229
30​
27​
Las Vegas Raiders5,214
27​
28​
New England Patriots5,205
28​
32​
Denver Broncos5,135
29​
31​
Carolina Panthers5,006
31​
30​
New York Giants4,623
32​
29​
This feels much better. Atlanta dropped a bit, Dallas upped a bit.

Indy over Houston feels weird to me, but overall that's a solid list and I've been basically avoiding every player on those bottom 5 teams in drafts so far at their current adp

I'm pretty high on Indy this year and other people doing projections that I follow are too. I have both Indy and Houston increasing their yardage totals by quite a bit.
 
Great thread idea. Thanks for leading the discussion, @Scoresman.

Seems to me the biggest annual deltas come from
- QB injuries (and/or subsequent dramatic return from), which are mostly (but not totally) unpredictable;
- Personnel turnover, particularly at HC/OC, QB and OL; and
- Young player/team ascension - think second/third year players, especially QBs (e.g. Purdy last year), and/or new coaches/programs getting their feet under them (e.g. Dan Campbell's 2nd/3rd years).

Who are the candidates for the above in 2024? Here's my list...

- NYJ - What will Rodgers look like in his return?
- ATL - Ditto for Cousins.
- LVR - Can AOC (or Minch) be even avg for an otherwise loaded offense? Were coach AP, Zeus and overall team's year-end an illusion or harbinger?
- CHI - Rookie QB, but with #1 overall pedigree? Like LVR, offense is loaded otherwise. New OC did wonders with Geno and OL was ascending 2nd half of 2023.
- AZ - Murray 2nd yr after ACL and 2nd yr of new offense, which added two bigtime rooks in MH Jr. and Benson; but OL ranked among bottom-dweller units.
- LAC - Harbaugh instant impact, but likely to be more running and less passing. OL will be tough and nasty, I have no doubt.
- CIN - Healthy Joe should lift all boats, but does he have an injury problem or just bad luck?
- HOU - Can Stroud be even better in Yr 2? Added Diggs and Mixon to already decent weaponry.
- WAS - What is Jayden Daniels? Could he be this year's Stroud while most focus/pressure is on Caleb? Kliff Kinsbury added. I need to look more into WAS as a team.
- DEN - Double the above for Bo Nix. Picked 6th of 6 historic QBs, but went to Sean Payton. Radar up here for at least value plays on this offense. Mims?
- PIT - Can Tomlin resurrect either of cooked Russ or Fields? Infusion of early round OL talent last two drafts.
- CAR - Does anyone believe in Bryce Young? Added Dionte Johnson, X Leggette and some FA OL. I'm not feeling this crew, but maybe there's something here.

We need to go through the list of HC/OL changes the last two offseasons. Where were up-and-comers added/lost?
 
Great thread idea. Thanks for leading the discussion, @Scoresman.

Seems to me the biggest annual deltas come from
- QB injuries (and/or subsequent dramatic return from), which are mostly (but not totally) unpredictable;
- Personnel turnover, particularly at HC/OC, QB and OL; and
- Young player/team ascension - think second/third year players, especially QBs (e.g. Purdy last year), and/or new coaches/programs getting their feet under them (e.g. Dan Campbell's 2nd/3rd years).

Who are the candidates for the above in 2024? Here's my list...

- NYJ - What will Rodgers look like in his return?
- ATL - Ditto for Cousins.
- LVR - Can AOC (or Minch) be even avg for an otherwise loaded offense? Were coach AP, Zeus and overall team's year-end an illusion or harbinger?
- CHI - Rookie QB, but with #1 overall pedigree? Like LVR, offense is loaded otherwise. New OC did wonders with Geno and OL was ascending 2nd half of 2023.
- AZ - Murray 2nd yr after ACL and 2nd yr of new offense, which added two bigtime rooks in MH Jr. and Benson; but OL ranked among bottom-dweller units.
- LAC - Harbaugh instant impact, but likely to be more running and less passing. OL will be tough and nasty, I have no doubt.
- CIN - Healthy Joe should lift all boats, but does he have an injury problem or just bad luck?
- HOU - Can Stroud be even better in Yr 2? Added Diggs and Mixon to already decent weaponry.
- WAS - What is Jayden Daniels? Could he be this year's Stroud while most focus/pressure is on Caleb? Kliff Kinsbury added. I need to look more into WAS as a team.
- DEN - Double the above for Bo Nix. Picked 6th of 6 historic QBs, but went to Sean Payton. Radar up here for at least value plays on this offense. Mims?
- PIT - Can Tomlin resurrect either of cooked Russ or Fields? Infusion of early round OL talent last two drafts.
- CAR - Does anyone believe in Bryce Young? Added Dionte Johnson, X Leggette and some FA OL. I'm not feeling this crew, but maybe there's something here.

We need to go through the list of HC/OL changes the last two offseasons. Where were up-and-comers added/lost?

Some of my notes on a few of these.

NYJ - Going to be hard for them not to improve in this metric. They threw only 11 TDs last year. 11!
ATL - I started this offseason incredibly high on this offense. They have all the pieces and a coach who will do better things. Recently, I'm a little concerned with Cousins' ability to bounce back since his injury was to his planting foot.
LAC - One of the toughest to project. It seems like an odd fit between coaching style and personnel. I have their passing rate reducing from 59% to 56%. I would reduce it more, but I don't know that they have the RB legs to do that, and they also have a very good QB in Herbert. Let's see how stubborn Harbaugh and Roman are with sticking to the run.
PIT - Another offense that will be hard not to project an improvement. 13 TDs through the air last year.
 
@Scoresman you're like the only one on earth to expect the Titans O to be worse.
I'm reading 28 to 31. Am I reading that right?

I know I’m overly optimistic when I think they can pull into the top 10, or at least above average.

Maybe he doesn't like Levis?
I've got no qualm with anyone hating on their OL. I think they're improved but ...whatever.

I've seen collapse without Henry as a narrative. I can see that as I'm afraid I'm overconfident in Chestnut. Mostly though because like Cosell said- there's gonna be a lot of pass plays that the Titans realize they have had it easy with Henry putting eight in the box. I see a new staff capable of dealing with it. Maybe others don't like the young staff? I'm sure there's a leadership void but Nuk seems to have filled it and I assume one future HOFer is as good as another future HOFer.
 
Here were the changes in offensive rank from 2022-2023.

Biggest gainers were the Rams and Texans. They went from bottom dwellers to top offenses in one season. Biggest losers were the Raiders and Giants. The Rams had a pretty dismal 2022 after their coaching staff was gutted and injuries to Stafford and Kupp. So projecting an improvement there was pretty easy. For the Texans, it's pretty clearly attributable to CJ Stroud.

TEAM2022 Rank2023 RankDelta
Miami Dolphins615
San Francisco 49ers523
Detroit Lions33-
Buffalo Bills44-
Dallas Cowboys1055
Baltimore Ravens16610
Los Angeles Rams32725
Philadelphia Eagles28(6)
Kansas City Chiefs19(8)
Minnesota Vikings710(3)
Green Bay Packers17116
Houston Texans311219
Jacksonville Jaguars913(4)
New Orleans Saints19145
Indianapolis Colts271512
Cleveland Browns1316(3)
Atlanta Falcons24177
Los Angeles Chargers818(10)
Arizona Cardinals22193
Chicago Bears28208
Seattle Seahawks1221(9)
Cincinnati Bengals1522(7)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers1423(9)
Washington Commanders2024(4)
Pittsburgh Steelers2325(2)
Denver Broncos2126(5)
Las Vegas Raiders1127(16)
Tennessee Titans30282
New York Giants1829(11)
New England Patriots2630(4)
New York Jets2531(6)
Carolina Panthers2932(3)
 
@Scoresman you're like the only one on earth to expect the Titans O to be worse.
I'm reading 28 to 31. Am I reading that right?

I know I’m overly optimistic when I think they can pull into the top 10, or at least above average.

Maybe he doesn't like Levis?
I've got no qualm with anyone hating on their OL. I think they're improved but ...whatever.

I've seen collapse without Henry as a narrative. I can see that as I'm afraid I'm overconfident in Chestnut. Mostly though because like Cosell said- there's gonna be a lot of pass plays that the Titans realize they have had it easy with Henry putting eight in the box. I see a new staff capable of dealing with it. Maybe others don't like the young staff? I'm sure there's a leadership void but Nuk seems to have filled it and I assume one future HOFer is as good as another future HOFer.

I think I have them projected pretty fairly. I have them going from a 53% pass rate last year to 55% this year, with about a 15% increase in passing yards, and 30% increase in passing TDs.

If I see a decline anywhere it's rushing. A Pollard and Spears committee is not better than Henry. I have their yards, TDs, and YPA all down. An offensive line that did not appear to get that much better in the offseason does not help.

Their defense also appears to have declined a bit, looking at projected defensive ranks. This supports them passing more.

They might climb my rankings a bit since it seems like Levis is having a good camp, and they look to have a soft schedule. So there's that.
 
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An offensive line that did not appear to get that much better in the offseason does not help.
This is where we disagree. But we’ll see.

PFF disagrees too.

30. TENNESSEE TITANS

The Titans fielded arguably the NFL's worst offensive line in 2023, they can expect improvements in 2024, at least on paper. After taking Peter Skoronski with the 11th overall pick in 2023 to play left guard, Tennessee selected JC Latham out of Alabama with the seventh overall pick this offseason.

The team also signed center Lloyd Cushenberry III in free agency after his breakout 2023 season during which he ranked 10th in PFF overall grade.


Footballguys have them ranked 31st.

So 30th/31st, up from 32? I guess that's an improvement but not enough to make up for the loss of Henry.
 

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