Predicting the Top Offenses (1 Viewer)

[Scoresman]

Detroit, SF and Miami all had over 6,700 yards of total offense last season. With the emergence of Jamo and Gibbs getting more touches, the Lions offense will be even much more explosive. I see those three top offenses still cracking 6700 yards, with Detroit stepping into the more historic territory of 7000 yards. Those three offenses are heads and tails better than others because they are unstoppable in running and passing the ball.

I noticed this too and dont really disagree. The only thing I'll says is that when doing projections, I don't really project anyone at their ceilings, which I think will need to happen for a few of these offenses to approach and hit 7,000 yards. Ceilings and floors are what I have in my head when choosing between these top players.

So while I definitely think these teams will approach 7,000 yards, in terms of fantasy football projecting, those extremes dont really show.

 

[BobbyLayne]

An offensive line that did not appear to get that much better in the offseason does not help.

This is where we disagree. But we’ll see.

PFF disagrees too.

30. TENNESSEE TITANS​

The Titans fielded arguably the NFL's worst offensive line in 2023, they can expect improvements in 2024, at least on paper. After taking Peter Skoronski with the 11th overall pick in 2023 to play left guard, Tennessee selected JC Latham out of Alabama with the seventh overall pick this offseason.

The team also signed center Lloyd Cushenberry III in free agency after his breakout 2023 season during which he ranked 10th in PFF overall grade.

Footballguys have them ranked 31st.

So 30th/31st, up from 32? I guess that's an improvement but not enough to make up for the loss of Henry.

They have a good C, invested the 11th and 7th pick into the left side, and they hired one of the best OL coaches in the league.

Think PFF is off base here. Generally I love PFF.

 

[BobbyLayne]

So while I definitely think these teams will approach 7,000 yards, in terms of fantasy football projecting, those extremes dont really show.

Yeah last year was exceptional. The top 3 had the 11th, 15th and 19th most yards of all time.

 

[Scoresman]

An offensive line that did not appear to get that much better in the offseason does not help.

This is where we disagree. But we’ll see.

PFF disagrees too.

30. TENNESSEE TITANS​

The Titans fielded arguably the NFL's worst offensive line in 2023, they can expect improvements in 2024, at least on paper. After taking Peter Skoronski with the 11th overall pick in 2023 to play left guard, Tennessee selected JC Latham out of Alabama with the seventh overall pick this offseason.

The team also signed center Lloyd Cushenberry III in free agency after his breakout 2023 season during which he ranked 10th in PFF overall grade.

Footballguys have them ranked 31st.

So 30th/31st, up from 32? I guess that's an improvement but not enough to make up for the loss of Henry.

They have a good C, invested the 11th and 7th pick into the left side, and they hired one of the best OL coaches in the league.

Think PFF is off base here. Generally I love PFF.

Not just PFF. FBG 31. I look at a lot of O-line predictions to try and get a consensus. The highest I've seen Tennessee rank is 24th.

ETA: From what I read about Callahan, it seems like most think it will take longer than 1 season for it to show.

 

[BobbyLayne]

An offensive line that did not appear to get that much better in the offseason does not help.

This is where we disagree. But we’ll see.

PFF disagrees too.

30. TENNESSEE TITANS​

The Titans fielded arguably the NFL's worst offensive line in 2023, they can expect improvements in 2024, at least on paper. After taking Peter Skoronski with the 11th overall pick in 2023 to play left guard, Tennessee selected JC Latham out of Alabama with the seventh overall pick this offseason.

The team also signed center Lloyd Cushenberry III in free agency after his breakout 2023 season during which he ranked 10th in PFF overall grade.

Footballguys have them ranked 31st.

So 30th/31st, up from 32? I guess that's an improvement but not enough to make up for the loss of Henry.

They have a good C, invested the 11th and 7th pick into the left side, and they hired one of the best OL coaches in the league.

Think PFF is off base here. Generally I love PFF.

Not just PFF. FBG 31. I look at a lot of O-line predictions to try and get a consensus. The highest I've seen Tennessee rank is 24th.

I’m aware. I see why, the right side is def a concern. But OL is the one group I feel like the coach really makes an impact, and Bill Callahan is one of the two or three best in the NFL. He’ll make it work.

 

[IHEARTFF]

I could see a big jump from Arizona

 

[BobbyLayne]

ETA: From what I read about Callahan, it seems like most think it will take longer than 1 season for it to show.

Cleveland finished 23rd in the 2019 PFF YE OL rankings. They were 1st at the end of 2020, Callahan’s first year there. 8th, 6th and 2nd in the last 3 seasons.

Washington was ranked 11th and 7th his first two years there (2015-2016.)

Dallas regressed his first year (2012), dropping from 15th to 23rd. This one fits your narrative. (Hard to believe, but Tyrion Smith was not so good as a rookie.) They were ranked 4th and 1st the next two seasons.

The Jets went from 13th before Callahan to becoming the top ranked OL (2008-09.)

You could be right, maybe they’ll stink again in 2024. They have 3/5ths of a great line, but good OL play is more about a unit gelling over a season rather than individual talents. I’m betting the Callahan’s know what they’re doing.

 

[Scoresman]

ETA: From what I read about Callahan, it seems like most think it will take longer than 1 season for it to show.

Cleveland finished 23rd in the 2019 PFF YE OL rankings. They were 1st at the end of 2020, Callahan’s first year there. 8th, 6th and 2nd in the last 3 seasons.

Washington was ranked 11th and 7th his first two years there (2015-2016.)

Dallas regressed his first year (2012), dropping from 15th to 23rd. This one fits your narrative. (Hard to believe, but Tyrion Smith was not so good as a rookie.) They were ranked 4th and 1st the next two seasons.

The Jets went from 13th before Callahan to becoming the top ranked OL (2008-09.)

You could be right, maybe they’ll stink again in 2024. They have 3/5ths of a great line, but good OL play is more about a unit gelling over a season rather than individual talents. I’m betting the Callahan’s know what they’re doing.

You could be right too. I learned that predicting OLs is very tough and it's such a key part to projecting the rest of the team.

It does look like he might be inheriting the worst line of his career, but has already taken steps to build it.

I'm going to assume mid twenties for them after seeing this. That would be a pretty good step forward.

 

[LawFitz]

predicting OLs is very tough and it's such a key part to projecting the rest of the team.

This.

HC/OC and QB are so much easier to project (relatively), but OL can be/is just as impactful.

 

[jon_mx]

So while I definitely think these teams will approach 7,000 yards, in terms of fantasy football projecting, those extremes dont really show.

Yeah last year was exceptional. The top 3 had the 11th, 15th and 19th most yards of all time.

Not really. They had an extra game over most those teams. Plus the rules favor the offense more. We should be expecting teams to be putting up top 20 offensive seasons.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Updated table as I've been updating projections, along with Vegas scoring prop ranks. Not quite apples to apples since mine is based on yards, but close enough.

I struggle projecting Cincinnati. I have them improving from 2023 and even surpassing 2022's yardage totals, but it doesn't seem like enough. Vegas thinks they should be higher, but I feel like any higher and I'm projecting everyone at their near ceilings. Couple this with Cincy being notorious for starting seasons out slow under Zac Taylor, and I'm hesitant to really improve on their numbers.

I still feel like I need to bump KC, GB and NYJ a bit.

TEAM	2024 Total Yards	2024 Rank	2024 Vegas
Detroit Lions	6,523	1​	2​
San Francisco 49ers	6,485	2​	1​
Miami Dolphins	6,449	3​	7​
Buffalo Bills	6,351	4​	4​
Baltimore Ravens	6,297	5​	9​
Dallas Cowboys	6,227	6​	5​
Kansas City Chiefs	6,141	7​	3​
Atlanta Falcons	6,117	8​	13​
Philadelphia Eagles	6,102	9​	6​
Indianapolis Colts	6,011	10​	17​
Houston Texans	5,961	11​	10​
Los Angeles Rams	5,924	12​	12​
Chicago Bears	5,881	13​	16​
Arizona Cardinals	5,876	14​	19​
Green Bay Packers	5,838	15​	11​
Cleveland Browns	5,830	16​	18​
Cincinnati Bengals	5,828	17​	8​
Seattle Seahawks	5,796	18​	20​
Jacksonville Jaguars	5,665	19​	15​
Los Angeles Chargers	5,608	20​	21​
Minnesota Vikings	5,586	21​	22​
Washington Commanders	5,573	22​	26​
New York Jets	5,509	23​	14​
Pittsburgh Steelers	5,477	24​	24​
New Orleans Saints	5,417	25​	25​
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5,336	26​	23​
Tennessee Titans	5,229	30​	27​
Las Vegas Raiders	5,214	27​	28​
New England Patriots	5,205	28​	32​
Denver Broncos	5,135	29​	31​
Carolina Panthers	5,006	31​	30​
New York Giants	4,623	32​	29​

Expletive YEAH!!!
What is working for the teams near the top is consistency at QB...the new Tua contract was met with a lot of boo and hissing BUT the Miami Dolphins are better with him right now than without him as painful as that might be to type right now because I'm not a huge fan and he is limited in the Playoffs...BUT BUT BUT we don't typically play FF during the Playoff run of the NFL

And even though Tua might have faded last year towards the end, soft schedule for first 2/3 of the season, use him at his discounted rate right now and sell him or plan on finding a QB2 along the way you might need come FF Playoffs

 

[BobbyLayne]

PFF Top 10 Offensive Coordinators

1. Ben Johnson, Lions
2. Todd Monken, Ravens
3. Bobby Slowik, Texans
4. Kellen Moore, Eagles
5. Arthur Smith, Steelers
6. Shane Waldron, Bears
7. Joe Brady, Bills
8. Ken Dorsey, Browns
9. Greg Roman, Chargers
10. Drew Pretzing, Cardinals

Top 4 looks good. After that…it gets interesting (or weird.)

 

[Scoresman]

Making some changes to my team projections after some time and lots of research and reading.

Miami - Downgrading. Their second half of last year worries me. I'm sure it's part weather, but also seems to be part defenses catching on. Also, I dont think I properly took into account their offensive line turnover and the effect it will have. Also, Achane and Mostert are HUGE regression candidates. Just a lot of reasons for some negative regression here.

Tennessee - Upgrading. OK, all you guys convinced me. I'm bumping Tennessee's volume and passing game.

Seahawks - Upgrading. I was already pretty optimistic, but giving them a slight bump further. Geno is underrated and this coaching staff is bringing a more modern approach to coaching.

Giants - Upgrading. I think they are still in last place, but now just barely instead of being blown out by the other teams. Nabers is legit and if the OL can stay healthy, they can look OK some weeks.

Falcons - Downgrade. Reading more into Cousins' injury, I'm worried he'll be ready. His passing style is really going to depend on it and I don't think ATL player ADPs are really taking this into account.

 

[Deamon]

Teams I currently have emerging as a new top 10 offense:
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland

Teams I have leaving the top 10:
Dallas
Los Angeles Rams
Minnesota

 

[Scoresman]

Teams I currently have emerging as a new top 10 offense:
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland

Teams I have leaving the top 10:
Dallas
Los Angeles Rams
Minnesota

In my defense since that post I did reduce Atlanta and Cleveland bit and raised LA.

 

[JohnnyU]

I’ll take the Chiefs and you can have the field.

 

[Deamon]

Teams I currently have emerging as a new top 10 offense:
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland

Teams I have leaving the top 10:
Dallas
Los Angeles Rams
Minnesota

In my defense since that post I did reduce Atlanta and Cleveland bit and raised LA.

lol I know, I just found it funny as those 3 offenses crashed hard and they were your 3 top ones to emerge.

Just giving you a hard time, I also thought Atlanta was going to have a fantastic offense this year and didn't expect Chi/Cle to struggle so much.

 

[Scoresman]

Teams I currently have emerging as a new top 10 offense:
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland

Teams I have leaving the top 10:
Dallas
Los Angeles Rams
Minnesota

In my defense since that post I did reduce Atlanta and Cleveland bit and raised LA.

lol I know, I just found it funny as those 3 offenses crashed hard and they were your 3 top ones to emerge.

Just giving you a hard time, I also thought Atlanta was going to have a fantastic offense this year and didn't expect Chi/Cle to struggle so much.

I think Atlanta and Chicago will be fine but probably just outside the top 10 at this point. I started reducing Cleveland hard as soon as it looked like Deshaun was not on track to improve much.

 

[jon_mx]

Teams I currently have emerging as a new top 10 offense:
Atlanta
Chicago
Cleveland

Teams I have leaving the top 10:
Dallas
Los Angeles Rams
Minnesota

In my defense since that post I did reduce Atlanta and Cleveland bit and raised LA.

lol I know, I just found it funny as those 3 offenses crashed hard and they were your 3 top ones to emerge.

Just giving you a hard time, I also thought Atlanta was going to have a fantastic offense this year and didn't expect Chi/Cle to struggle so much.

I think Atlanta and Chicago will be fine but probably just outside the top 10 at this point. I started reducing Cleveland hard as soon as it looked like Deshaun was not on track to improve much.

Caleb looked pretty bad and not ready for the NFL. He would have been much better off being eased into the league. Great athlete and great arm talent, he is best when he is throwing on the run. Week 1 did not provide much evidence he os going to turn it around anytime soon.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Detroit’s offense was sluggish last night, couldn’t get in rhythm. Closed middle field all night with two high safeties and low dropping LBs. That’s what teams will do to take away Goff’s bread n butter, in breaking routes to LaPorta and ARSB.

That’s when hit ‘em with speed. Jah and Wamo can turn the mo quick.