Whether its by a trade or suspension, I don't know that Hill is a lock to finish the season playing for the Dolphins. Not something I'm factoring into any rating other than Hill's though.
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Travdogg's positional rankings from week 2 onward (4 Viewers)
- Thread starter travdogg
- Start date
He very well might. I like Sutton, its Nix I'm more meh toward. I was already concerned about a Stroud-esq sophomore slump, I've had him well under consensus all summer, and Sunday was a disaster for him. Denver should have won that game by 3+ scores, the reason they didn't was Bo Nix.
Stoneworker
Footballguy
Agreed. Puts up 6/61/1 (good for WR12 in PPR) on what will likely be Bo Nix's worst game of the season (by far)
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This is how I'm seeing it too. Evans is very consistent year to year, but extremely inconsistent week to week. He's been taking a backseat to Godwin from a weekly consistency standpoint since like 2019. Same song, different signer.
I think my reasoning is pretty clear and obvious. Saints offense didn't look like the disaster many thought it would, therefore player who is the centerpiece of the offense gains value.
I don't think Kendre Miller is a threat. At all. Him having a higher yards per carry means nothing. He played 11 snaps. 15% of the game vs 77% for Kamara.
I also don't think 1 game with 2 catches, suddenly means Kamara is done as a pass catcher. Just like Juwan Johnson isn't gonna see 11 targets every week (maybe ever again)
Kincaid is one of the more interesting players in the NFL. Josh Allen loves him, but he needs more playing time. He's a bit of speculative guy. He was TE2 this past week. If Buffalo has breakout guy, I think its gonna be either Kincaid or Coleman. Or possibly both. But it could also be neither and they just stay a spread the wealth offense. I'm a little more inclined to take the flier at TE.
I've always liked the receiving talent, and while he needs to play more to really ever get any higher. He's still pretty startable in a split snap role.
rockaction
Footballguy
No, your reasoning is clear. I think it’s mistaken. I said you didn’t have a “great” reason. I don’t want to be contentious. If you want to use snap share then that’s your prerogative. He had a 50% rushing share. Without a significant target share, he’s not RB13. He doesn’t come close. He rushed for 950 yards with the heaviest rushing usage (I think) he’s ever had. The only guys in the top 24 that rushed for less were Breece Hall (RB16), Rachaad White (RB22) and David Montgomery (RB18).
They all had quite a few passing yards. Regardless, you can say things will revert. That’s fine. I think Kellen Moore’s history as an OC and Rattler’s scrambling are pieces of contrary and serious evidence to the contrary. We will see.
Ramblin Wreck
Footballguy
Appreciate this thread. Don't always agree with the rankings but makes me think and reconsider my own positions, which is always a good check.
Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
JJ McCarthy Top 10 the rest of the way?
LawFitz
Footballguy
From a total points standpoint, Evans may drop off this year given his age, but he's shown no signs of such on the whole for an amazing number of seasons in a row... On a PPG basis, he's been a mid/low-end WR1 in seven of the last nine years, dating back to his third-year breakout, and including the last two seasons. So far at least, he's been aging like King Henry, but at 32, with an emergent Booka train, that could certainly change this season. To me he is an old Drake London until he actually isn't. We shall see if that's this season.
LawFitz
Footballguy
Also think Deebo is too low if the usage last week is anywhere close to what we will see going forward - health permitting of course, given his history and style.
Rest of the list seems reasonable. I was against your take on Nix going into the season, but I'm more open to it after last weekend. Either the Titans are way better on D than thought, or he had a very rusty first outing, or his owners are due for a very rude awakening this season. Not sure yet which of those is true, but I agree he looked awful out of the gate.
Rest of the list seems reasonable. I was against your take on Nix going into the season, but I'm more open to it after last weekend. Either the Titans are way better on D than thought, or he had a very rusty first outing, or his owners are due for a very rude awakening this season. Not sure yet which of those is true, but I agree he looked awful out of the gate.
JoeSteeler
Footballguy
Thank you!
I thought Dak played very well against the Eagles, but he doesn't run anymore, and while maybe I'm overreacting to week 1 slightly, I don't think the defense post-Parsons is going to be the disaster people thought it would.
I don't see why not. I've had him around 10 all offseason, he just led a 2 score 4th quarter comeback victory on the road in his 1st start (something only Steve Young had ever done) he's got big time weapons (that will get even better in a couple weeks) and he's got sneaky mobility, that I don't think they'll be shy about using.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
Seriously though, I genuinely don't understand how you rate a player in the top ten consistently that has been a qb2 for years now that lost his top option to suspension, his second option is two Kelces trapped in one body, and a guy so fragile he dislocated a shoulder by bumping into Kelce's fat.
My real question is that what else needs to happen to move Mahomes down your list? Because almost any other qb would have fallen out period just based on situation alone.
Patrick Mahomes is not “any other qb”. That’s why.
He was QB6 in week 1, despite all the problems you said, which are VERY exaggerated in Kelce's case. He was QB12 in 2024, QB8 in 2023, and QB1 in 2022. That's not a QB2 for years now.
What would need to happen for Mahomes to move down? He have to play a lot worse than he has, and Andy Reid would probably need to stop being as good a playcaller. I honestly don't know who I'd move ahead of him. Maybe Mayfield if when Godwin gets back he's right back to where he was last year? Maybe Fields if his passing consistently stays above 200 yards?
To be honest, I'm probably just as likely to move Mahomes up when Rice is back, especially if Worthy and Brown are both healthy (enough to be playing anyway) at that point. Don't sleep on Mahomes rushing.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
49ers HC Kyle Shanahan told reporters that Brock Purdy could miss “multiple weeks” and that he is a “long shot” to play Sunday at New Orleans. 49ers QB Mac Jones is in line to start.
Per Schefter.
Oof. Really costly win for SF. They can probably still beat NO with Mac Jones, but certainly a little less excited about Ricky Pearsall.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Mac Jones has been especially terrible as of late. Personally, I don't know why they choose him as a backup.
I would disagree with that. Mac Jones was basically interchangable with Trevor Lawrence in Jacksonville last year. I bet having a huge upgrade in playcallers can make him servicable. He's a downgrade from Purdy, sure, but he's a solid backup.
Donnybrook
Footballguy
Maybe from a fantasy perspective but in terms of wins and losses - he wasn't good. He went 2-6 and his only wins came when faced the Titans.
wgoldsph
Footballguy
And real life doesn't mean anything in fantasy. In the real world Mahomes is a unique talent that is capable of willing a group of teenagers into the nfl playoffs. In fantasy his upside is capped by his situation.
And this is why I ask the questions. Guess I'm disillusioned with how he was clearly the no1 qb for the next ten years unanimously... And then the offense died. That qb 8 finish after being shown a guy who was going to going to crush every single season and career record is overshadowing the stats. Thanks for pointing that out for me.
rockaction
Footballguy
I was honestly going to chime in here. He went from being a big reason I won my dynasty championship to being an average QB1. But as disappointed as I am not to have that advantage anymore, he's always been a QB1 and it just hasn't changed. Two big events have been our friend's kryptonite. Tyreek leaving and taking with himself the field stretching threat and the YAC. Vic Fangio and his two-high safeties that he just kept back while he limited Patrick to underneath routes and the flats. Every team—and I mean every one—copied it and they still usee it. They make Patrick beat them over the course of ten or eleven plays rather than get beat in one. Fangio pulls the soccer version of parking the bus. And once the Chiefs got spread thin because of the cap the teams opposing the Chiefs poured their money into their DLs while the Chiefs didn't pour enough money or draft capital into their tackles. It's awfully hard to afford all those positions, and Patrick has been running for his life for about three out of the past five years, beginning with the Tampa Super Bowl.
Hartliner
Footballguy
I am seeing TE being a big changeup on landscape this year. Old guard is moving out and we have a surge of young exciting TEs taking TE1 roles. Prolly should be its own thread TBH.
Juwan Johnson, Tyler Warren, Harold Fannin, Kyle Pitts, Dalton Kincaid all have promising staying power IMO.
I think we see Andrews, Goedert, Hockenson, Jake Ferguson being out of the spots they were in before. We'll see! Only 1 week of data so far.
doeseatplace
Footballguy
Agreed. I thought he'd show out better when he had the opportunity last year
Alex P Keaton
Footballguy
I mean, the team was 4-13. They went 2-6 with him, 2-7 with Trevor.
So was it him, the personnel, the coaching staff or all three?
rockaction
Footballguy
Fantasy Points is worried about Kamara’s target share and Moore is planning on Juwan Johnson getting his slot touches. Sounds bad.
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
Very thoughtful and laid out answer. With that said—if the notion is that Fields may have had his best game—you ranked him as the #8 fantasy qb the rest of the season and mentioned that the Jets offense is almost certainly going to be better than what the fantasy community expected before the season started.
1. With Omarion—I agree that the chargers offense is better—but I also think that there are far more mouths to feed. You have Ladd, you have Allen, you have Quentin—and let’s not forget that Justin Herbert is also a pretty mobile qb. As you mentioned—Najee is still there—-and I don’t think that he gets marginal use as he recovers from the eye injury—I think the Chargers would prefer a 65/35 or 70/30 split once Najee is up to shape.
2. Conner is solid but unexciting. I think he’s a high floor, but medium ceiling guy. Myself personally—I think he and Breece probably command similar fantasy value.
Deandre Swift— Caleb is a mobile qb that can absolutely vulture deandre from tds. Also, I don’t know if the Bears are going to be a “running” team. I think the questions around him are greater than the questions around Hall. I think the Jets are more committed to the ground game than the Bears.
Etienne—I don’t trust the offense. Sure, he’ll get a lions share of the work—but he has also had a history of finding ways to make mistakes that make him fall out of favor with his coaches. I don’t know how many “goal line” opportunities this team will get.
Chuba—I think that much like Conner that his value is probably similar to that of Breece. I think Breece has pedigree—and last season—everybody thought Breece sucked—but he still finished the year as the RB16/17 in fantasy on a team that has horrid qb play and a completely inept coaching staff. A lot of people say that “breece didn’t look right” last year—and he certainly looked explosive as hell now. If the unexplosive version of him on a team that was horribly coached (with garbage qb play) got him an RB16/17 result (even with Braelon there)—-what do we think the explosive version of him on a team that looks more potent offensively going to be? Chuba’s pedigree is that he finished off last season very strong and has had one very good game to start this season. I think that he, Conner, and Breece should all be in the top of the rb2 range—probably 13-16thish. I certainly don’t see much of a difference between these guys and Kamara.
How is this any different than any of the other 1st rd running backs
Juwan Johnson is 29 years old, older than Hockenson or Ferguson, and only 1 year younger than Andrews/Goedert.
Yeah, Mahomes production has been disappointing for sure, given what it once was, but I think often times narrative can overwhelm stats. I've thought a similar thing has always been hurting Justin Fields fantasy value as well, where people see a guy who sometimes looks really bad, and can't look past that to that fact that he's like QB6 on a per start basis since 2022.
One thing I want to add to this, is that KC has tried very hard at OT. They just whiffed. But they invested 2 huge FA contracts, a decent sized FA contract, and a 1st and 2nd round draft pick into the OT position all since 2021.
Orlando Brown in 2021, who was a decent RT in Baltimore, but wanted to play LT to make the big bucks. KC brought him in, and while he "made the pro bowl" he was a pretty league average starter. Then they let him go, and signed Jawaan Taylor to a huge contract to play RT, despite the fact that he was one of the worst starting OT's in the NFL in Jacksonville, and has predictably been even worse in KC. His biggest skill is somehow convincing refs he isn't false starting on every play, though they are seemingly catching him more often now. He's one of the worst starters in the NFL, at any position, and should be making the league minimum. Classic sunk cost fallacy, they'd be much better if he wasn't playing. They signed Jaylen Moore from SF this offseason, to a decent sized contract, and he'd be a clear upgrade in my opinion.
They also drafted Kingsley Suamataia in round 2 last year, but he ended up kicking to LG to replace Joe Thuney. We'll see how that goes, but its unlikely he'll ever be as good as Thuney. Then they took (stole) Josh Simmons in round 1 this year, because he fell due to injury. He didn't have the greatest week 1, facing Khalil Mack in the 1st game of your career probably isn't optimal, but he's a very good prospect.
BlackCrowes
Footballguy
cool
jvdesigns2002
Footballguy
The other first round running backs are on teams that fundamentally have structured their teams offense around their usage, or have shown some sort of history/pedigree of being elite fantasy producers. Bijan, Gibbs, Saquon, Henry, Achane, Mccaffrey, Chase Brown, Bucky, Jacobs, kyren, and Jonathan Taylor all have that. I think that everybody assumes that Jeanty’s skills and presence is something that the Raiders also plan on structuring their offense around. Keep in mind, I think Omarion is going to be just fine—but A LOT of his fantasy hype and forecasts were based on him basically being the exclusive running back due to Najee being a question mark until the very last second. I don’t think that the Chargers are going to be building or structuring their offense around him—I think he’s a very skilled player that will exist in an offense that is almost completely built around Herbert. I think he’s will get solid opportunity on an offense that seems to move the ball pretty well—but some of those goal line opportunities could also go to Najee as he comes to form. I just don’t see much of a “tier difference” between a guy like him versus guys like Breece, Connor or Chuba. I think guys like this are basically at the top of the second tier of rb’s.
