Dodds is a BOLD man (1 Viewer)

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I admire DD for sticking his neck out this week and understand that Hines is out and Washington is likely to get some or most of his snaps.

Link

Nate Washington will start at flanker for Ward but rookie Santonio Holmes also will get work there, Cowher said. Holmes has played at split end, alternating every third series with starter Cedrick Wilson.

But even as a Steelers homer I wouldn't dare rank him ahead of Torry Holt this or any week. Washington does get plenty of redzone looks and seems to drop most of them. I think he is a decent future investment with upside but would hate to count on him this year. I think the smart money is on Holmes to lead the Steelers WR this week. I'd bet he's on the field as much as Washington and seems to be more reliable in the passing game. The real guy to have is Willie Parker, after the way Roethlisberger was beaten down last week I think the Steelers will do everything in their power to establish the running game.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

I admire DD for sticking his neck out this week and understand that Hines is out and Washington is likely to get some or most of his snaps.

Link

Nate Washington will start at flanker for Ward but rookie Santonio Holmes also will get work there, Cowher said. Holmes has played at split end, alternating every third series with starter Cedrick Wilson.

But even as a Steelers homer I wouldn't dare rank him ahead of Torry Holt this or any week. Washington does get plenty of redzone looks and seems to drop most of them. I think he is a decent future investment with upside but would hate to count on him this year. I think the smart money is on Holmes to lead the Steelers WR this week. I'd bet he's on the field as much as Washington and seems to be more reliable in the passing game. The real guy to have is Willie Parker, after the way Roethlisberger was beaten down last week I think the Steelers will do everything in their power to establish the running game.

huh?I know Holt is struggling but C'mon??

 

[patrickmcgroin]

That IS a bold projection.

Not getting on your case FF, but thread topics like this is why I think there should be a subscribers forum. Way too much paid info given away by just thread topics this year.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

You say bold, I say foolish.

That's absolutely terrible advice.

 

[fruity pebbles]

That IS a bold projection. Not getting on your case FF, but thread topics like this is why I think there should be a subscribers forum. Way too much paid info given away by just thread topics this year.

With paid info like this....................ah, I won't finish the rest of it.

 

[Memphis Foundry]

This is bordering on becoming an *** OFFICIAL *** Keerocking in progress.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

I will say this. If Nate Washington outperforms Torry Holt this week, Dodds is a freakin genious and he has just made us all look stupid. It is entirely possible that Nate outperforms Holt this week with how bad Holt has been the last month. Nate could also put a big fat 0. No one knows. Dodds' guess is just as good as anybody elses.

 

[spork]

This is bordering on becoming an *** OFFICIAL *** Keerocking in progress.

 

[Otis]

Wow.

 

[Memphis Foundry]

Frenchy's point in this message is well-taken as this is a risky play. As a fellow Steeler homer, here's what I think. I figure each of the three receivers in question (Wilson, Washington, and Holmes) will have the potential to get an equal number of snaps this week. With Ward out, there's no clear #1 to focus on, but if I were a DC, I would spotlight Holmes as he has the speed to get deep repeatedly and is (in my mind) the most vulnerable of the three to getting minimized for the rest of the day because of a bad start. If I can bust his chops early, I can shake his confidence and shake the coaching staff's confidence in him. Then I can work on defending Wilson deep and Washington and Miller in the zones.

I think one of the three will get hot early and will become Roeth's favorite target. Whichever WR that is should be in for a good to great day (100+ yards and 1-2 TDs). Which one that will be is pretty much a crapshoot, though. As a Steeler fan, I hope the breakout guy will be Holmes but in terms of raw probability, I think Washington is the most likely beneficiary because he is the closest of the three to Ward both physically and in the way the team uses him. Say, 40%/30%/30% chances for Washington, Holmes, and Wilson respectively to be the man this week.

 

[CalBear]

He's taking a position on the PIT-TB game; in addition to the receivers being rated much higher than you would expect, Roethlisberger is rated extremely high considering how he's been performing and that he's missing his #1 WR. (Without giving away the rating, he's above Palmer and Peyton and almost everyone else).

I don't see it.

 

[salmonstud]

I was also very surprised by this ranking. It does stand out...Holt being much lower than he has all year & Washington's lofty status. I love seeing people go out on a limb & against the masses with their rankings. I'm a big believer in playing mathcups & the Steelers passing game has a tasty matchup against the Bucs....but I'm also a big beliver in the law of averages. The law of averages tell me that Holt is long overdue for a big game. Despite the matchup and recent slump.....Holt breaks out this week & racks up 100 yards & 1-2 TD's.

 

[G-Money]

Sorry.........I just don't even remotely agree with this one. Even if Holt was playing the Bears in a huge snowstorm, I would never bench him in favor of Nate Washington. Holt vs the Cardinals (at home) is just about as good of a matchup as one could want. I guess we shall see.....................

 

[Mungo Burrows]

In the last 5 weeks (Since STL's bye), neither has scored a TD, and Washington - coming off the bench - has had more rec. yards than Holt in 2 of the 5 weeks, including this past week. Now Washington moves into the starting position.

Yards each week:WK NW TH 08 49 48<-09 24 5010 28 7311 24 6812 49 30<-

And holt had a fumble in week 11

 

[Sputnikv8]

Only way this gets bumped postgame is if he's wrong.

 

[Trap Play]

Now Washington moves into the starting position.

I thought Washington and Holmes were splitting time at flanker? How is that starting?

 

[Beetlejuice]

Why stop with Washington....for example what has Harrison done over the last 3 weeks that would put him in front of Holt? Nobody in their right mind is going to sit Holt and play Nate Washington or sit Holt and play Berrian, Jennings, Galloway, etc. if given that one on one choice. It's just poor advice by Dodds, period. That's what a cheatsheet is of course, advice. If he wants to make a "projection" that Washington or others will outplay Holt based on a gut feel or some sort of statistical analysis...fine, that is his opinion which he is more than entitled to have of course. Put that in the projection section which is really all guesswork. But look at the targets that Holt gets each and every week, based on opportunity alone he has a higher statistical probability of success than many if not most on that list. In the end to actually put out a cheatsheet and state that chances are likely that the 20 guys he has listed above Holt will outperform him this week is foolish in my opinion- an opinion I am entitled to have as well.

I appreciate the work that Dodds does each week, but for those that actually rely on him for "advice"- the downside risk is far too great to put Holt at 21.

And no, I do not own Holt. I do in fact own Harrison and would certainly play Holt in front of him this week.

 

[Biabreakable]

This is bordering on becoming an *** OFFICIAL *** Keerocking in progress.

Lets get Keerock over here and make it official then.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

I like the call, but I think it should be Santonio Holmes in that spot, not Nate.

BTW Way to much Tory love in here!

Go Nate!

 

[Mungo Burrows]

Now Washington moves into the starting position.

I thought Washington and Holmes were splitting time at flanker? How is that starting?

Ed Bouchette, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: "WR Nate Washington will start at flanker for WR Ward" Holmes will split time as well, but that sounds like the "starting position" to me. The point is, his opportunity should increase this week.

 

[Trap Play]

I don't know that it is so much Torry love as this:

Coming down to cruch time, who here is going to sit Holt for either one of the Steelers reserve WRs when Big Ben's most prolific target is just as likely to be Ronde Barber.

 

[Biabreakable]

That IS a bold projection. Not getting on your case FF, but thread topics like this is why I think there should be a subscribers forum. Way too much paid info given away by just thread topics this year.

Rut roh The cats out of the bag now.Should I start Nate Washington over Torry Holt Reggie Wayne Andre Johnson Darrell Jackson?TIA

 

[3C's]

FF, thanks for the Keerock.

Starting Washington this week in 2 leagues.

 

[joffer]

Coming down to cruch time, who here is going to sit Holt for either one of the Steelers reserve WRs when Big Ben's most prolific target is just as likely to be Ronde Barber.

DD's rankings aren't based on who he thinks a subscriber would start over someone else, they're based on his analysis of the matchup.i like the call

 

[Trap Play]

DD's rankings aren't based on who he thinks a subscriber would start over someone else, they're based on his analysis of the matchup.

Really? Because that's what I thought the Rushing and Passing Matchups were for. In fact, I thought the cheatsheets were for helping you decide who to start, which means Dodds is saying bench Holt if you have Nate Washington and anyone else above Holt on your team.

 

[GregR_2]

That IS a bold projection. Not getting on your case FF, but thread topics like this is why I think there should be a subscribers forum. Way too much paid info given away by just thread topics this year.

I kind of see it the opposite. I think vetting the most pronounced predictions against an open community is a good thing. As long as the entire projections aren't being posted, I don't see a problem with it.

 

[Beetlejuice]

That IS a bold projection. Not getting on your case FF, but thread topics like this is why I think there should be a subscribers forum. Way too much paid info given away by just thread topics this year.

I kind of see it the opposite. I think vetting the most pronounced predictions against an open community is a good thing. As long as the entire projections aren't being posted, I don't see a problem with it.

I don't think this particular piece of advice from Dodds is something that those of us that pay should look to protect from the non-paying public. I agree with GR....

 

[corpcow]

I was also very surprised by this ranking. It does stand out...Holt being much lower than he has all year & Washington's lofty status. I love seeing people go out on a limb & against the masses with their rankings. I'm a big believer in playing mathcups & the Steelers passing game has a tasty matchup against the Bucs....but I'm also a big beliver in the law of averages. The law of averages tell me that Holt is long overdue for a big game. Despite the matchup and recent slump.....Holt breaks out this week & racks up 100 yards & 1-2 TD's.

The law of averages is not a law.

 

[Bri]

Bulger has either done real well or been horrendous. There doesn't seem to be a middle ground with that guy this year.

142 yards 2 weeks ago, yeah Holt stunk. Did you expect him to get 100% of those yards?

201 yards isn't all that great either.

Look at his career game by game stats-

http://www.profootballreference.com/games/BulgMa00.htm

He's had his worst (full)games ever this year.

For me it's will this be a 300 yard week or a 180-200 yard week for Bulger.

IMO you "can't" complain Vick's WRs stink in FF when he throws for 200 or that Young's made Bennett useless with his low passing totals and then go onto say Holt is going to be great this week. It's all much of the same.

 

[CalBear]

Coming down to cruch time, who here is going to sit Holt for either one of the Steelers reserve WRs when Big Ben's most prolific target is just as likely to be Ronde Barber.

DD's rankings aren't based on who he thinks a subscriber would start over someone else, they're based on his analysis of the matchup.i like the call

So are you benching Peyton for Roethlisberger?

 

[joffer]

DD's rankings aren't based on who he thinks a subscriber would start over someone else, they're based on his analysis of the matchup.

Really? Because that's what I thought the Rushing and Passing Matchups were for. In fact, I thought the cheatsheets were for helping you decide who to start, which means Dodds is saying bench Holt if you have Nate Washington and anyone else above Holt on your team.

you're mis-interpreting what i'm saying. if you replace "would" with "should" in my statement above, you would be correct.i'm saying that Dodds isn't sitting around thinking "there's no way some guy is going to bench Holt for Washington, so i can't rank Washington ahead of Holt". he's running his game predictor, analyzing the matchup, making a projection, and ranking the players accordingly.

 

[CalBear]

DD's rankings aren't based on who he thinks a subscriber would start over someone else, they're based on his analysis of the matchup.

Really? Because that's what I thought the Rushing and Passing Matchups were for. In fact, I thought the cheatsheets were for helping you decide who to start, which means Dodds is saying bench Holt if you have Nate Washington and anyone else above Holt on your team.

you're mis-interpreting what i'm saying. if you replace "would" with "should" in my statement above, you would be correct.i'm saying that Dodds isn't sitting around thinking "there's no way some guy is going to bench Holt for Washington, so i can't rank Washington ahead of Holt". he's running his game predictor, analyzing the matchup, making a projection, and ranking the players accordingly.

Right, but Roethlisberger as the #2 QB when he's thrown 7 TDs and 12 INTs in the past five weeks, and now is missing one of the best receivers in the league and is throwing to guys who, frankly, are not very good, simply doesn't pass the smell test--I don't care what your game predictor tells you. I'm much more willing to accept Washington in the top 20 than Roethlisberger in the top 2. I do think that Holt out of the top 20 is a questionable call; the last time he played Arizona he went for 8/120/1.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

which holt are we talking about...

the one when pace wasn't on IR, the OL wasn't in disarray & bulger didn't have rib injury?

holt is a great player, but there have been some material changes to his situation in the past month...

obviously if holt was getting 6 receptions & 100 yards a week in that span, this call wouldn't have been made...

for the record, for those who acknowledge holt is not as good a play as he was a month ago... how far should he be dropped... 10th... 15th? if the latter, that isn't too far removed from 20th...

some times WRs like chad or harrison have lulls & unexpected drops in production... but you can project them to do well from week to week with confidence because they are embedded in offenses that continue to move the ball... the rams have really struggled to move the ball recently*, and it pretty much coincides with time pace went down, than recently we learned that bulger is injured...

so it seems expectations for holt should be lowered... though there is bound to be difference of opinion on how much...

* edit/add - i should qualify that... jackson has had some good games running, & even catching dumpoffs, but bulger seem to be struggling to get the ball downfield to his WRs... not a surprise if he is getting hurried by withering pass rush pressure with DL & blitzers running free & unblocked too much... also given his rib injury, depending on its severity... its bad enough that he has supposedly been getting pain killing injections on a weekly basis...

i have holt on one team & am not that enthused about his prospects the rest of the way, unless the rams somehow get better play from their OL...

that said, if he is going to break out, this would be the week to do it... dockett provides inconsistent push, best sack artist berry on IR, dansby & wilson are big concern on blitz... but if bulger has time to deliver the ball (which is in doubt), ARI doesn't have the best secondary in the league when it comes to coverage...

 

[Texican]

I think Dodds has some serious man-love for the Steelers. He has had Pitt's D ranked very high all year. And then the has Ben and Nate ranked pretty high this week.

I guess we will wait and see

 

[patrickmcgroin]

That IS a bold projection. Not getting on your case FF, but thread topics like this is why I think there should be a subscribers forum. Way too much paid info given away by just thread topics this year.

I kind of see it the opposite. I think vetting the most pronounced predictions against an open community is a good thing. As long as the entire projections aren't being posted, I don't see a problem with it.

Yeah but now Chester cheapskate gets this Washington information free, picks him up off waivers, and uses the info to beat someone that actually paid. Subscribers could talk about it as well.

 

[BoulderBob]

Against the Bucs? I could see the ranking if the Steelers weren't playing at home against a team they should beat, but this is quite a stretch. But then again, who knows, Washinton certainly has big play ability.

 

[John Mamula]

That IS a bold projection. Not getting on your case FF, but thread topics like this is why I think there should be a subscribers forum. Way too much paid info given away by just thread topics this year.

 

[patrickmcgroin]

That IS a bold projection. Not getting on your case FF, but thread topics like this is why I think there should be a subscribers forum. Way too much paid info given away by just thread topics this year.

 

[ghosttothepost]

That IS a bold projection. Not getting on your case FF, but thread topics like this is why I think there should be a subscribers forum. Way too much paid info given away by just thread topics this year.

I kind of see it the opposite. I think vetting the most pronounced predictions against an open community is a good thing. As long as the entire projections aren't being posted, I don't see a problem with it.

Yeah but now Chester cheapskate gets this Washington information free, picks him up off waivers, and uses the info to beat someone that actually paid. Subscribers could talk about it as well.

Are you kidding? I think that if the non-subscriber/Holt-owner I'm playing this week picks up Washington and plays him in place of Holt, then my subscription will have way more than paid for itself!

 

[SickThing]

That IS a bold projection. Not getting on your case FF, but thread topics like this is why I think there should be a subscribers forum. Way too much paid info given away by just thread topics this year.

I kind of see it the opposite. I think vetting the most pronounced predictions against an open community is a good thing. As long as the entire projections aren't being posted, I don't see a problem with it.

Yeah but now Chester cheapskate gets this Washington information free, picks him up off waivers, and uses the info to beat someone that actually paid. Subscribers could talk about it as well.

I agree with GregR. We're talking about only giving away the relative position of one or two WRs out of around fifty total that are of real interest. That's not giving away that much to begin with. Then when it becomes exposed that there's out of the box thinking driving these rankings, they only become more enticing to the person that hasn't coughed up the dough yet. If Dodds is right on this one and it was brought up in advance, it becomes a nice endorsement for the quality of their product. If he's wrong, you can't complain about not getting what you paid for if you didn't pay and you don't have the same endorsement, but those who haven't yet paid probably aren't going to by now anyway. Little harm in the discussion either way.

 

[Gr00vus]

This is bordering on becoming an *** OFFICIAL *** Keerocking in progress.

Except from Keerock coming in here and making it official, I think this is about as official of a Keerocking as we've seen in quite some time.

 

[MLBrandow]

I like NW for at least once score, which is more than I can say about Holt for any of the past 5 weeks, and probably this week as well.

I wouldn't be surprised if he scored 3 times, honestly.

He'll be going up against a hobbled Juran Bolden and then probably the inexperienced Zemaitis.

Like I said in another thread... I expect this to be a blowout bigtime.

Wouldn't be surprised to see 40+.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

which holt are we talking about...the one when pace wasn't on IR, the OL wasn't in disarray & bulger didn't have rib injury?holt is a great player, but there have been some material changes to his situation in the past month...obviously if holt was getting 6 receptions & 100 yards a week in that span, this call wouldn't have been made... for the record, for those who acknowledge holt is not as good a play as he was a month ago... how far should he be dropped... 10th... 15th? if the latter, that isn't too far removed from 20th...some times WRs like chad or harrison have lulls & unexpected drops in production... but you can project them to do well from week to week with confidence because they are embedded in offenses that continue to move the ball... the rams have really struggled to move the ball recently*, and it pretty much coincides with time pace went down, than recently we learned that bulger is injured...so it seems expectations for holt should be lowered... though there is bound to be difference of opinion on how much...* edit/add - i should qualify that... jackson has had some good games running, & even catching dumpoffs, but bulger seem to be struggling to get the ball downfield to his WRs... not a surprise if he is getting hurried by withering pass rush pressure with DL & blitzers running free & unblocked too much... also given his rib injury, depending on its severity... its bad enough that he has supposedly been getting pain killing injections on a weekly basis...i have holt on one team & am not that enthused about his prospects the rest of the way, unless the rams somehow get better play from their OL...that said, if he is going to break out, this would be the week to do it... dockett provides inconsistent push, best sack artist berry on IR, dansby & wilson are big concern on blitz... but if bulger has time to deliver the ball (which is in doubt), ARI doesn't have the best secondary in the league when it comes to coverage...

It's one thing to say Holt is struggling. We all know that. Bulgar is struggling to deliver the ball and the OLINE is not protecting him. The issue I think people have is Nate Washington who is unproven over a veteran like Holt. We are talking about a Pittsburgh QB who has thrown 12 TD's compared to 19 INT's so far this year. Yea, I know the Bucs are not the greatest against the pass, but wouldn't that be a reason to run FWP more this week? If you lose your best WR, and you have a guy like FWP, common sense tells me they run the ball down the throats of the Bucs. This is just one man's opinion.

 

[unipanthers]

I like NW for at least once score, which is more than I can say about Holt for any of the past 5 weeks, and probably this week as well.I wouldn't be surprised if he scored 3 times, honestly.He'll be going up against a hobbled Juran Bolden and then probably the inexperienced Zemaitis.Like I said in another thread... I expect this to be a blowout bigtime.Wouldn't be surprised to see 40+.

The current projections have corrected the obvious mistake from the preliminary cheatsheet.

 

[Franknbeans]

Nate's already dropped 3 TD passes this year. That alone will keep him behind Torry in my rankings.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

I like NW for at least once score, which is more than I can say about Holt for any of the past 5 weeks, and probably this week as well.I wouldn't be surprised if he scored 3 times, honestly.He'll be going up against a hobbled Juran Bolden and then probably the inexperienced Zemaitis.Like I said in another thread... I expect this to be a blowout bigtime.Wouldn't be surprised to see 40+.

The current projections have corrected the obvious mistake from the preliminary cheatsheet.

And I was just starting to have fun with this thread!!

 

[Gr00vus]

The system works!

Or has Dodds just Keerocked himself?

 

[Rusty Syringes]

Nate Washington

123 yards and 1 TD this week.

 

[Bob_Magaw]

good point...

i have given more thought to on what basis we should be excited about holt... not only have his stats greatly diminished, but there are identifiable reasons to explain it... & also to suggest it could continue (though, like i said, for those in glass is half full camp, cause for optimism could be ARIs putrid coverage ability in secondary... rolle is OK, but i don't have a lot of confidence in wilson & griffith)...

but you are right... any discussion of holt's relative worth to NW, even if holt should be bumped down due to above factors, this also entails an examination of where NW belongs, & i'm sure i haven't given as much thought about THAT as dodds...

 

[patrickmcgroin]

That IS a bold projection. Not getting on your case FF, but thread topics like this is why I think there should be a subscribers forum. Way too much paid info given away by just thread topics this year.

I kind of see it the opposite. I think vetting the most pronounced predictions against an open community is a good thing. As long as the entire projections aren't being posted, I don't see a problem with it.

Yeah but now Chester cheapskate gets this Washington information free, picks him up off waivers, and uses the info to beat someone that actually paid. Subscribers could talk about it as well.

Are you kidding? I think that if the non-subscriber/Holt-owner I'm playing this week picks up Washington and plays him in place of Holt, then my subscription will have way more than paid for itself!

No I am not kidding. I didn't give an example of starting Washington over Holt, but lets say Chester Cheapskate has scrubby WRs. He then uses this info and picks up Washington and starts him over some 3rd tier WR.I will just agree to disagree since I am the only person this bothers. When I pay for something I am a stingy ******* sometimes when it comes to sharing, its a bad vice.