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Dodds Perfect Draft (10 Teams) Article (1 Viewer)

uhaul77

Footballguy
Hoping to get some discussion going regarding Dodd's Perfect Draft (10 Teams) article. In his article he breaks w/ the RB early/often theory professed and practiced by so many FFG subscribers. He says the better tactic is to grab the best available talent from a Top 60 list before worrying with specific positions. So if its a ten team redraft league that's the first six rounds. That seems a bit over the top to me; although, there are certain circumstances where this might be advisable.

I was actually toying w/ the idea of this myself but I'm in a keeper league where we keep 1QB, 1RB, 1WR so ten of the top guys in those positions are off the board before the draft even starts and we're half-way through Dodd's Top 60 list. It just might work for me because I traded up for the 1-1 pick and Chad Johnson wasn't kept so he's the top guy on my list; however, Edge is also available but I'm not sold on him in AZ. Given this type of scenario it might be worth ditching the RB theory because CJ is clearly above the likes of FWP, Dunn, etc. Especially since I already have a "stud" RB going into the draft since I kept LT. However, it just seems sacriligious to even think about not drafting a RB in the 1st round in any format or scenario!

Any other thoughts about his article

 
In response to the original question

I just read the article and can't say I disagree with it, but keep some things in mind. When you put together a list of the top value players (based on your projections) you will likely still get a preponderance of RBs in the early picks. The point is that the need to stubbornly load up on RBs is lower because there will only be 20 starting RBs in this type of league instead of 12-16 team leagues starting 24 - 32 (or more, if flex). I've played in small leagues for years and with a smaller number of teams you need to have real studs to stay ahead of the game so you want anyone who gives you an edge at any position. Because there are not as many teams, the scarcity factor doesn't drain the RBs quite as fast as in bigger leagues. There will be several of the hit-or-miss type RBs like Jones/Benson, Addai/Rhodes who you can take shots at later. A bunch of slow-but-steady players will get you a lot of close losses in small leagues. RB value always seems to be around later than you think it will, and if you've been passing up good value at other positions like WR, you will be left scrambling and all those RBs you got won't be as valuable in trades because most players will have enough to field a respectable lineup and will fill in their rosters with the dice-roll RBs while you're picking up the WR scraps.

From my experience this is even more the case in leagues with < 10 teams (of course depending on your starting requirements - many smaller leagues have different roster configurations to compensate). But for leagues like he describes, ten teams is probably right on the borderline between RB crazy and not. A lot of it also depends on the style and experience of your league mates.

 
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Do you guys think the theory would still apply where you only need to start 2 WR (along with 2 RB) and a RB/WR position?

In this case, I think I'd still try to grab the RB's early and often, although I'd like to also get at least one "stud" WR.

 
In response to the original question I just read the article and can't say I disagree with it, but keep some things in mind. When you put together a list of the top value players (based on your projections) you will likely still get a preponderance of RBs in the early picks. The point is that the need to stubbornly load up on RBs is lower because there will only be 20 starting RBs in this type of league instead of 12-16 team leagues starting 24 - 32 (or more, if flex). I've played in small leagues for years and with a smaller number of teams you need to have real studs to stay ahead of the game so you want anyone who gives you an edge at any position. Because there are not as many teams, the scarcity factor doesn't drain the RBs quite as fast as in bigger leagues. There will be several of the hit-or-miss type RBs like Jones/Benson, Addai/Rhodes who you can take shots at later. A bunch of slow-but-steady players will get you a lot of close losses in small leagues. RB value always seems to be around later than you think it will, and if you've been passing up good value at other positions like WR, you will be left scrambling and all those RBs you got won't be as valuable in trades because most players will have enough to field a respectable lineup and will fill in their rosters with the dice-roll RBs while you're picking up the WR scraps.From my experience this is even more the case in leagues with < 10 teams (of course depending on your starting requirements - many smaller leagues have different roster configurations to compensate). But for leagues like he describes, ten teams is probably right on the borderline between RB crazy and not. A lot of it also depends on the style and experience of your league mates.
Agreed. In addition, Dodds recommends coming out of the top 60 phase (which lasts 6-8 rounds) with at least 4 RBs. In his top 20, he has 14 RBs and 5 WRs. In his top 30, he has 19 RBs and 9 WRs. So we aren't exactly giving up on the RB emphasis. If you followed this advice, you'll come out pretty close to RB RB RB or RB RB WR.
 
I'm a VBD drafter in a 2 RB, 3 WR/TE league with no PPR. I've always gone at least one RB with my first two picks, fairly often two RB. Drafting 9 hole this year. If I really go with VBD and the Perfect Draft - 10 team, perhaps its time to consider other options. With my league settings, VBD ranks the top 20 as follows

8 RBs (1-6, 15, 18)

1 QB (10)

11 WRs (7-9, 11-14, 16-18, 19-20)

I'm not amazed at the RB choices after top 6 any way and last year I got burned with Dom D. at 2.2. (Moss at 1.9, hurt also).

Seems like there are some solid RBs (ranked 18-30) that could be picked up in rounds 3-6 that aren't all that much different than RB ranked 7-20. My league usually drafts 18-21 RBs by end of third so that's about what I would be looking at.

At least it would be an exciting draft if I tried QB/WR or more likely WR/WR.

Anyway, just wanted to provide another vote for potentially jumping off the RB train.

Lenny

 
Chad Johnson is solid, you know what you're going to get from him.

Edge is a question mark because of his offensive line mainly. He really can only go down in the Cardinal system compared to what he did in Indy.

So the big question is who is the WR that you kept? Would Chad Johnson be an upgrade and definite keeper for next year. Edge isn't an upgrade to LT. What depth at those positions will likely be available when you pick in the next rounds?

I don't know about Top 60. I have done my research and have a Top 44 players regardless of position. These are the top players with proven track records and/or tremendous upsides. That list includes Peyton Manning as the only QB and Antonio Gates as the only TE.

The reason for that is that QBs are not really that important because you can get good value late that won't cost you many points per week compared to the top QBs, you can also play matchups on the waiver wire. Peyton is just so consistent with his big numbers that it's tough to totally pass on him. Everyone ignores the fact that if Peyton Manning is on your fantasy team he will probably be sitting in favor of Sorgi during your fantasy football playoffs. I'd let someone else pick him early though, I have him around 35 overall because that's when I would actually have to take him if he was still around. It might sound crazy, because he'll probably never slip that far, but taking him earlier means you downgrade a RB or WR draft spot and that's going to hurt you way more than not getting Peyton.

Which is also why Gates is on the list around 35. Gates however dominates the TE position and could really make or break your team. There is still good value at the TE position that can be had late or quality guys that could slip in the middle rounds. There are also a lot of young TEs with big upside, and remember that Gates has a new QB and slight decreases in his TE numbers would really make him overvalued in respect to where he's going to be drafted.

The Top 60 sounds a bit lazy honestly, especially if you are paying for it. If you just go by some arbitrary number every year, you're sure to get outplayed by smarter players in your league. One year you may have 40 guys that are consistent, others 63.

The early rounds of the draft is really about getting the best RBs and WRs, because the QB/TE/DEF/K positions can be filled a number of ways and the talent dropoff amongst the tiers of players isn't that great. You'll be able to get good value at those positions.

After the Top 44 you really have to look at what the other owners are doing and adjust to that. After the Top 44 or whatever put guys in groups talent wise (regardless of position) and fill your roster out that way (so when your pick comes you have a choice of 5-10 players in a group), don't be afraid to reach for sleepers if a clear position need doesn't present itself because most of these middle round guys are going to be weekly crap shoots as it is. However, don't pass up good value picks. It's a delicate balance (see a lot goes into the draft) If you do your homework and understand how much work actually goes into determining sleepers you'll be fine, never assume you’ve done enough. Don't stop researching all the little things, defensive philosophy, relationships with players/coaches, performance on turf/grass, schedule, individual matchups, tendencies to wear down as the season goes on, total injury history, contract issues, job security and what affect it has on morale/motivation etc.

If you are in a keeper league you should have some kind of read on how owners in your league draft. If you've ignored this in the past, take note of it this year because situations could arise when little things could really pay off big for you, if not this year down the road. You are unsure on exactly what is the best strategy, but some guys in your league may strictly buy into the RB early/often crap year to year without question, these are things you should know. Some owners will fill their starting roster and ignore overall talent, you can take advantage of that. Situations change all the time, even drafts that took place a month ago will be vastly different than drafts taking place tomorrow.

One article isn't going to tell you everything you need to know to have a great draft, because too much goes into it. It's a constant process of gathering information and evaluating it and deciding what implications it has on not only how you rank your draft board, but also how others rank theirs, which in turns affects your rankings. Fantasy football drafts are not only about knowing players abilities/situations and crunching numbers, it is also about knowing how people in your league think. Many strategies can be successful, it is up to you to know them and determine when to apply those strategies as you draft, as you pickup/drop/trade players, and when you do your starting lineups.

 

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