I've read at least six different threads on which RB to take with the #1 overall pick (redraft league) and all of them have merits. All this has done is get me second and third guessing myself so I sat down and spent the better part of a day trying to figure out which RB is the best choice for me to take. Here's my take....
LT
LT has proven production & been top 5 RB several years in a row now. I don't think his situation has changed alot (new QB, but not neccessarily or significantly worse) and he has the least risk imo. I play in a "Work League" and know who the year in and year out competition is. Taking this into consideration, I looked at who I play each week and broke it down to my 8 toughest/need to win games. LT has the easiest matchup of the big three RB's on 5 of those 8 games and the worst matchup just once. Unfortunately he also has the worst FF playoff schedule of the three by far (weeks 14 - 16).
SA
SA has been in the top 5 RB for the last 5 years and was #1 the last 2 years in a row. His situation hasn't changed much with just a new starter at left guard after the loss of Hutch. The Seahawks have the best O-line depth and while Hutch will be missed the O-line will still be close to the same as last year. He is also the oldest/most worn, but hasn't started showing signs of slowing down yet. Has the worst matchup on 3 weeks and the best on 2 of them. SA has the softest overall SOS of the three and the best playoff matchups.
LJ
LJ filled many a FF player with dreams of superstar production with his stats from the last half of last year. So much has changed for him and no one can no for sure what the impact of those changes will be. He has a new HC, new OC, new fullback, new LT and Shields has not practiced much at all yet due to injury which may cause some O-line issues. LJ is a huge risk vs reward player in my eyes, but everywhere you look he is getting drafted with the #1 pick. LJ has the best matchup just once out of my targeted 8 games and the worst 4 times.
My main competition in my conference picks at #3 and I play him on weeks 2 and 9. I already know that the guy with the #2 pick will take either LT or SA in that order. LT has the best matchup on week 2 and they all have good matchups on week 9. That all being said, SA has an easier SOS this year than last year while the other two have a harder SOS this year. I am fairly positive that I'll make the playoffs regardless of who I pick (barring major injuries) as I've made it to the championship game every year so far. SA may be sitting some late in the season if they have it wrapped. I'm not drinking the LJ koolaid...too much changed there and I feel there is much more risk with him. So it boils down to LT or SA for me and I am leaning towards SA. Comments are welcome on LT vs SA. LJ is not in the mix for me so useless to discuss him on this thread. Thanks for your insights.
LT
LT has proven production & been top 5 RB several years in a row now. I don't think his situation has changed alot (new QB, but not neccessarily or significantly worse) and he has the least risk imo. I play in a "Work League" and know who the year in and year out competition is. Taking this into consideration, I looked at who I play each week and broke it down to my 8 toughest/need to win games. LT has the easiest matchup of the big three RB's on 5 of those 8 games and the worst matchup just once. Unfortunately he also has the worst FF playoff schedule of the three by far (weeks 14 - 16).
SA
SA has been in the top 5 RB for the last 5 years and was #1 the last 2 years in a row. His situation hasn't changed much with just a new starter at left guard after the loss of Hutch. The Seahawks have the best O-line depth and while Hutch will be missed the O-line will still be close to the same as last year. He is also the oldest/most worn, but hasn't started showing signs of slowing down yet. Has the worst matchup on 3 weeks and the best on 2 of them. SA has the softest overall SOS of the three and the best playoff matchups.
LJ
LJ filled many a FF player with dreams of superstar production with his stats from the last half of last year. So much has changed for him and no one can no for sure what the impact of those changes will be. He has a new HC, new OC, new fullback, new LT and Shields has not practiced much at all yet due to injury which may cause some O-line issues. LJ is a huge risk vs reward player in my eyes, but everywhere you look he is getting drafted with the #1 pick. LJ has the best matchup just once out of my targeted 8 games and the worst 4 times.
My main competition in my conference picks at #3 and I play him on weeks 2 and 9. I already know that the guy with the #2 pick will take either LT or SA in that order. LT has the best matchup on week 2 and they all have good matchups on week 9. That all being said, SA has an easier SOS this year than last year while the other two have a harder SOS this year. I am fairly positive that I'll make the playoffs regardless of who I pick (barring major injuries) as I've made it to the championship game every year so far. SA may be sitting some late in the season if they have it wrapped. I'm not drinking the LJ koolaid...too much changed there and I feel there is much more risk with him. So it boils down to LT or SA for me and I am leaning towards SA. Comments are welcome on LT vs SA. LJ is not in the mix for me so useless to discuss him on this thread. Thanks for your insights.
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