Doug Baldwin Player Spotlight (1 Viewer)

[Justin Howe]

You guys probably know the deal by now -- after a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are one of the main features on the site during the preseason. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary fell off, but we have confidence in a resurgence.

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

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Dating back to 2015, the NFL has seen 81 full-time wide receivers draw 150 regular-season targets or more. Of that crop, only one has managed to:

• Play in all 48 games
  
• Catch 70% (or better) of his targets
  
• Score a touchdown on at least 8% of his targets
  
• Register 60 yards or more in at least 48% of his appearances
  

You know from the title of this post who that is. But can you tell me why he slips behind Mike Evans and Davante Adams - among others - in most 2018 fantasy drafts? He's got targets locked down in an anemic corps of receivers - with 198 key targets (Jimmy Graham, Paul Richardson) out the door. He's an efficiency monster, hauling in 71.8% of his looks over the last 3 years. And he's always shown a nose for the end zone, with a sterling touchdown rate that peaked in 2015 but has stayed quite strong since.

Where do you stand on Baldwin? Is he worthy of an early-third pick ahead of those names? Do you take him over Adam Thielen? Ultimately, what are you expecting?

 

[Interseptopus]

There are a lot of targets, and more importantly TDs, up for grabs in the Seattle passing game. I do think they are serious about running the ball more, but when you're ranked 20th in rushing attempts last year (and how many of those were the QB?) it's hard to not rush the ball more. I think Baldwin stands to see a slight bump in targets. I love Lockett in that offense this year and I think he gets an even bigger bump. I see Baldwin as a potential increased red zone target. As far as if I take him over Thielen, yes. We have no idea what Cousins is going to do in that offense, and Thielen is a WR2 on his team. I will take a WR1 over a WR2 almost any day. The reason I think he slips behind Evans is because of the name. Evans, IMO, is a bit overrated. Of course I don't draft Baldwin over Evans, but I'd rather wait on Baldwin and get a very high level talent at a bit of a discount. Compared to Adams. Well... that's more due to GB having a better QB. 

I think Baldwin has always suffered from "middle child syndrome." he's not the big name top 5 pick, but he's also not the sexy rookie/second year guy everyone is obsessed over. He does his job day in and day out. He is a "blue collar" WR IMO. Does his job quietly and does it well. 

 

[Justin Howe]

There are a lot of targets, and more importantly TDs, up for grabs in the Seattle passing game. I do think they are serious about running the ball more, but when you're ranked 20th in rushing attempts last year (and how many of those were the QB?) it's hard to not rush the ball more. I think Baldwin stands to see a slight bump in targets. I love Lockett in that offense this year and I think he gets an even bigger bump. I see Baldwin as a potential increased red zone target. As far as if I take him over Thielen, yes. We have no idea what Cousins is going to do in that offense, and Thielen is a WR2 on his team. I will take a WR1 over a WR2 almost any day. The reason I think he slips behind Evans is because of the name. Evans, IMO, is a bit overrated. Of course I don't draft Baldwin over Evans, but I'd rather wait on Baldwin and get a very high level talent at a bit of a discount. Compared to Adams. Well... that's more due to GB having a better QB. 

I think Baldwin has always suffered from "middle child syndrome." he's not the big name top 5 pick, but he's also not the sexy rookie/second year guy everyone is obsessed over. He does his job day in and day out. He is a "blue collar" WR IMO. Does his job quietly and does it well. 




5

A great take here, I have to say, though I've passed on Evans for Baldwin more than once this offseason. Still, as you point out, it's generally more shrewd to wait until early Round 3 if wideouts aren't coming off the board in your draft. Baldwin hasn't knocked our socks off since late 2015, but he's been steady and consistent ever since. Now, he looks poised to be rewarded with a noticeable bump in usage.

I also love Lockett's upside and wild value - I've landed him in Round 14 or later in many early best-ball drafts.

 

[Anarchy99]

Just curious. Did the Player Spotlight format change? For years, people were asked to give their projections for the player being spotlighted. Is that no longer a thing?

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Baldwin is the perfect guy you wait for at WR.  Since 2015, only Antonio Brown has more TD’s than him amongst WR’s.  And he’s an undisputed WR1 on a team with a legit QB.  Yet, year after year...he gets under drafted.  His ADP suggests the FF world is catching on.

But save for injury, he’s as consistent as they come and with Graham/Richardson departed, some upside exist as well.

 

[Justin Howe]

Just curious. Did the Player Spotlight format change? For years, people were asked to give their projections for the player being spotlighted. Is that no longer a thing?

You guys and gals are certainly welcomed to, sure.

 

[rickyg]

No graham, no p-rich, no major offseason additions at WR or TE to replace?  

Big positive TD regression here.  Double digit TDs on the horizon for 2018 if he stays healthy.  Book it.  

 

[Dr. Octopus]

One of the most under-rated players in fantasy football year in and year out - maybe because he's just a solid all around wide receiver and isn't flashy? The guy puts up WR1 numbers perennially yet he gets no respect in dynasty circles and gets draft behind more flashy but less productive WRs in redraft. As @TheDirtyWord said above however, it does look like his ADP is finally catching up to his production.

Baldwin gets open and has the trust of Russell Wilson - with the Hawks defense deteriorating and with the departure of Jimmy Graham and Paul Richardson we could potentially see a career year from Baldwin. My projections leave room for his upside, but still put him in the low end WR1 range:

84-1,097-8

 

[Ilov80s]

I really like him this year for the reasons mentioned above. I have him as WR9 and am thinking of moving him up.

Anyone here make a case for Adams vs Baldwin?

 

[matuski]

I really like him this year for the reasons mentioned above. I have him as WR9 and am thinking of moving him up.

Anyone here make a case for Adams vs Baldwin?

The only argument is QB.

 

[Ilov80s]

The only argument is QB.

Agreed and even then it’s not that big of a drop off. 

 

[Interseptopus]

Anyone here make a case for Adams vs Baldwin?

in dynasty of take Adams due to a younger age and overall better team. maybe Adam's propensity to put himself into positions of higher risk of concussion is a concern for some. 

In redraft I take Baldwin, definitely. 

 

[Stompin' Tom Connors]

Agree with the takes that Baldwin represents solid investment at his ADP. Baldwin's floor remains as solid as ever, but I temper my enthusiasm about his ceiling as I think (and this is just my own gut) that this is the year Tyler Lockett finally breaks out, and is the big beneficiary of the targets and opportunity vacated by Graham. 

 

[Chaka]

I know most people are expecting an uptick in targets with the loss of Graham and Richardson, but I think that will be offset somewhat by a reduction in pass attempts.

Are we really projecting him to hit the 150-160 target range?  If his efficiency remains close to where it is he would be.im the conversation for top 3 aming WRs.

 

[Biabreakable]

One of the most under-rated players in fantasy football year in and year out - maybe because he's just a solid all around wide receiver and isn't flashy?

I think part of the reason people sleep on Baldwin is because he is mostly a slot receiver and the stigma about slot receivers.

It is also because he didn't really break out until his 5th season in 2015. His highest finish was WR 37 before then. Since then he has been WR 10 in 2015 WR 8 in 2016 and WR 14 in 2017.

He will be 30 years old this season. Late bloomer and by the time he becomes valuable he is getting old so folks in dynasty really sleep on this guy. He is outside of the framework they are working in.

Bakdwin did have a somewhat down year in 2017 compared to his previous two seasons. He didn't pass 1000 yards and his catch rate was only 65% instead of the 75% of the previous two seasons.

2015    27    16 games    103 targets    78 receptions    1069 yards 13.7 ypr 10.4 ypt 14 TD 4.9 rec/game    66.8 yards/game    75.7% catch rate                            
2016    28    16 games    125 targets    94 receptions    1128 yards 12.0 ypr 9 ypt 7 TD 5.9 rec/game    70.5 yards/game    75.2% catch rate
2017    29    16 games    116 targets    75 receptions     991 yards 13.2 ypr 8.5 ypt 8 TD 4.7 rec/game    61.9 yards/game    64.7% catch rate

3 year average 115 targets 82 receptions 1063 yards 12.9 ypr 9.3 ypt 9.6 TD 5.1 rec/game 66.4 yards per game 71.8% catch rate

Because Baldwins performance has been so consistent, I think I would just use the 3 year average above for my projection for him.

Its possible that he is targeted more due to the departures of Richardson and Graham. I would consider 130 targets the upside and 100 targets the downside with the 3 year average as the efficiency stats to complete the projection range.

 

[Chaka]

I think part of the reason people sleep on Baldwin is because he is mostly a slot receiver and the stigma about slot receivers.

It is also because he didn't really break out until his 5th season in 2015. His highest finish was WR 37 before then. Since then he has been WR 10 in 2015 WR 8 in 2016 and WR 14 in 2017.

He will be 30 years old this season. Late bloomer and by the time he becomes valuable he is getting old so folks in dynasty really sleep on this guy. He is outside of the framework they are working in.

Bakdwin did have a somewhat down year in 2017 compared to his previous two seasons. He didn't pass 1000 yards and his catch rate was only 65% instead of the 75% of the previous two seasons.

2015    27    16 games    103 targets    78 receptions    1069 yards 13.7 ypr 10.4 ypt 14 TD 4.9 rec/game    66.8 yards/game    75.7% catch rate                            
2016    28    16 games    125 targets    94 receptions    1128 yards 12.0 ypr 9 ypt 7 TD 5.9 rec/game    70.5 yards/game    75.2% catch rate
2017    29    16 games    116 targets    75 receptions     991 yards 13.2 ypr 8.5 ypt 8 TD 4.7 rec/game    61.9 yards/game    64.7% catch rate

3 year average 115 targets 82 receptions 1063 yards 12.9 ypr 9.3 ypt 9.6 TD 5.1 rec/game 66.4 yards per game 71.8% catch rate

Because Baldwins performance has been so consistent, I think I would just use the 3 year average above for my projection for him.

Its possible that he is targeted more due to the departures of Richardson and Graham. I would consider 130 targets the upside and 100 targets the downside with the 3 year average as the efficiency stats to complete the projection range.

I agree but I think the TD number is a little high, maybe 6 as a downside and 10 as the upside IMO.

 

[rzrback77]

Yes, he is consistent but as stated above he has finished as WR10, WR8 and WR14 over the past three seasons and has a current ADP of WR10. I am not seeing the potential upside that more than a few mention.

Just because the Seattle defense is projected to fall considerably back is not a guarantee that the offense will improve. I am fading Baldwin for 2018 at his current ADP.

 

[Biabreakable]

I agree but I think the TD number is a little high, maybe 6 as a downside and 10 as the upside IMO.

Sure TD always the hardest thing to project.

Baldwin hasn't scored fewer than 7 times the last 3 seasons, so I would consider that a floor instead of 6.. but 6 TD is decent and pretty normal for a WR that is good. Baldwin has averaged 9.6 TD over the last 3 years. Interestingly his lowest TD season was in 2016 when he had 94 receptions, so those numbers did not go up with more opportunity.

 

[Tau837]

It is also because he didn't really break out until his 5th season in 2015. His highest finish was WR 37 before then. Since then he has been WR 10 in 2015 WR 8 in 2016 and WR 14 in 2017.

He will be 30 years old this season. Late bloomer and by the time he becomes valuable he is getting old so folks in dynasty really sleep on this guy. He is outside of the framework they are working in.

I don't disagree with any of your logic, but the only reason he didn't break out sooner in fantasy is because of his situation.

• As a rookie in 2011, he led the team in targets, but Tavares Jackson was the QB, and Seattle only passed for 3105/15.
  
• In 2012, Wilson took over, but Seattle only attempted 405 passes.
  
• In 2013, Seattle only attempted 420 passes.
  
• In 2014, Seattle only attempted 454 passes. Baldwin led the team in targets.
  

Baldwin performed well throughout based on various metrics that measure performance... he just played in a conservative, low volume passing offense. He has been underrated throughout his career.

 

[Biabreakable]

Yeah good point about the offense changing, Russell Wilson throwing more also being reasons why Baldwin broke out, and also reasons why it has been sustainable.

We have discussed this at length in regards to Wilson JWB and it has turned out pretty much how we expected it to now that Wilson is throwing the ball more.