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Draft Analysts: Tracking the Outliers (1 Viewer)

massraider said:
Pro Football Focus has their first Big Board:

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/02/17/draft-bosa-buckner-top-pffs-first-2016-nfl-draft-board/

I'll add this to the spreadsheet later.  For now, it only goes 40 deep, but I think the plan is to expand to 75.  This will be interesting to track, as PFF has some very very different names here.  I like that they are putting this out there, because anyone that follows these guys on Twitter knows they can be smug little knobs.  
Click to expand...
Interesting WR order there.

10. Coleman

15. Caroo

25. Doctson

26. Treadwell

33. Michael Thomas

34. Shepard

I hope they come out with positional rankings at some point - good to see them putting up a big board.

The new FBG board has huge line spacing.

 
De'Runnya Wilson is hard on automated rankings - everyone uses a different type of apostrophe, or skips it, or starts it with a Da.

 
Tick said:
I'm only through 8 sites so far, but Coleman is averaging third across those 8 sites, a hair behind Michael Thomas at 2nd.
Click to expand...
Matt Harmon was on Ross Tucker's 'Fantasy Feast' podcast with Evan Silva and he went over WR Corey Coleman and brought up some great points about the Baylor offense and how they are instructed to 'run' their routes.

Harmon said that it appears that Coleman doesn't run on routes where he isn't the target or if it is a running play etc., basically it 'appears' that he is lazy.  He then noticed that all of the Baylor WRs ran their routes that same way and discovered that is how they are coached.  They are coached to save themselves for deep routes.

That made me think of former Baylor WR Josh Gordon who is notorious for 'dogg'n' it where he doesn't run his routes hard in practice.  (Que the Allen Iverson meme)

Lots of other great stuff here: 

http://www.podcastone.com/pg/jsp/program/episode.jsp?programID=659&pid=1632918

NFL.com WR guru Matt Harmon is this week's guest on the Fantasy Feast podcast. 

 
Bracie Smathers said:
Matt Harmon was on Ross Tucker's 'Fantasy Feast' podcast with Evan Silva and he went over WR Corey Coleman and brought up some great points about the Baylor offense and how they are instructed to 'run' their routes.

Harmon said that it appears that Coleman doesn't run on routes where he isn't the target or if it is a running play etc., basically it 'appears' that he is lazy.  He then noticed that all of the Baylor WRs ran their routes that same way and discovered that is how they are coached.  They are coached to save themselves for deep routes.

That made me think of former Baylor WR Josh Gordon who is notorious for 'dogg'n' it where he doesn't run his routes hard in practice.  (Que the Allen Iverson meme)

Lots of other great stuff here: 

http://www.podcastone.com/pg/jsp/program/episode.jsp?programID=659&pid=1632918

NFL.com WR guru Matt Harmon is this week's guest on the Fantasy Feast podcast. 
Click to expand...
This is very interesting, because on of the metrics that PFF and others track involves how often a player is involved for every route run.  Yards pre route run, etc.  

Because Baylor has their players rest themselves, it really skews this particular stat.  They don't count plays when Coleman doesn't run a route, but will for players in other offenses that do run routes.  Both players on the field, both not involved, but doesn't count against Coleman the way it would towards another player.  

 
Updated the spreadsheet with Norris' latest and PFF's board added.  

PFF is slanted dramatically towards performance over the season, and less to NFL potential.  

A fun player to track:  Kamalei Correa, Boise State pass rusher.  Kiper and Jeremiah both just placed him in their latest 1st round mocks.  Now, either they both have been scouting his tape at the same time, and decided that everyone has been sleeping on this guy, or an NFL person clued them in.  Mostly, I look at mocks to see who my team takes, and who was taken behind them, and if I would rather take someone else.  But every once in a while, a new name pops up, and you have to wonder why.

It's one thing if NFLDraftGeek puts him in their mock.  Big deal.  But when Jeremiah and Kiper both do, you know something is up.  

 
Possible new name rising atop the WR rankings.

---------------

Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscout  35m35 minutes ago
I expect to hear a lot of talk about Florida WR DeMarcus Robinson this week. One of the best athletes at the position in this class.
Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscout  33m33 minutes ago
If there were no off field issues (3 weed suspensions, 1 curfew suspension), DeMarcus Robinson might be WR1 in this class
----------------

Seems Laquan Treadmill won't be running at the Combine so he 'could' fall in the draft.

---------------

Matt Miller ‏@nfldraftscout  33m33 minutes ago
Matt Miller Retweeted Scott Bischoff

Scouts won't like this. A slower player opting not to run reeks of "hiding" something. Needs to nail his pro day

Scott Bischoff‏@Bischoff_Scott


Also, confirmed to me this morning by a source that Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell will not run at the Combine.
 
Okay, here's the list of rankings I'm using.  For the most part, I didn't include top 100 lists.  I didn't include position rankings that weren't at least 10 deep.  

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2016/RB
http://nfldraftgeek.com/runningbackrankings-2016nfldraft.html
http://walterfootball.com/draft2016RB.php
http://optimumscouting.com/rankings/static-rankings/rb-rankings.html
http://www.nfldraft101.com/draft/rankings/2016/rb.jsp
http://gbnreport.com/2015-nfl-draft-player-rankings/top-running-backs/
http://www.draftinsider.net/rankings/2016/RB
http://www.draftcountdown.com/nfl-draft-ranking/running-back-rankings/
http://proplayerinsiders.com/nfl-draft/
http://www.thehuddlereport.com/thr/valueboardpos.shtml
http://www.drafttek.com/2016-NFL-Draft-Prospect-Rankings/Top-College-RBs-2016-Draft.asp
http://www.scout.com/nfl/a.z?s=127&p=9&c=12&yr=2016&nid=83&lnid=124&rc=4&pid=11
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/tracker?icampaign=draft-sub_nav_bar-drafteventpage-tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position/dt-by-position-input:rb
http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-nfl-prospect-rankings-by-position/rankings/running-backs/3
http://www.draftscouts.com/player-rankings/runningback/
http://thedraftwire.usatoday.com/category/positional-rankings/
http://draftcentric.weebly.com/rb-rankings.html
http://draftbreakdown.com/category/rankings/
http://thereadoptional.com/rankings-by-position/
http://dynastyfootballwarehouse.com/16-rookie-guide/16-rookie-guide-wrs/

http://www.draftnasty.com/football/position_list/?list=RB&year=2016
https://www.profootballfocus.com/college-football/
http://www.rotoworld.com/archives/cfb/325/rankings
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft
http://football.realgm.com/news/analysis/author/161/Jeff-Risdon
http://draftdaddy.com/ranks/top10_RB.htm
http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2016-rookie-wr-rankings/

For my own summary rankings, I weighted them based on my own stupid criteria, basically how professional the site looks, whether I've heard of the site/draftnik, whether I believe they did their own scouting, whether they've updated since February, how deep the rankings go, and whether they just didn't rank someone who's in everyone else's top 5.  That's what I use as my base pre-NFL-draft rankings.

 
massraider said:
Try this:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16Tg-lSmA7aC9XAocNYSGEQyyQHwODoZ10zaJkxTK4y8/edit?usp=sharing

Also, if anyone is good at converting info on pages to spreadsheet, that would be appreciated. I cannot convert Drafttek to Spreadsheet. Me+Computers=not good.
Click to expand...
DraftTek is the toughest one to deal with.  They aren't on a single row, and you have to go to two pages for both WRs and RBs, then mix them.

I used to do some heavy macro work to gather all Zealots drafts into a spreadsheet, but they're a common format.  Between the variance in formats and the variance in player name spelling (C.J. or CJ, Michael vs. Mike, De'Runnya vs. any other random combination of letters, using an asterisk before underclassmen's names), I don't think it can be done automatically - has to be manual.

 
Tick said:
Okay, here's the list of rankings I'm using.  For the most part, I didn't include top 100 lists.  I didn't include position rankings that weren't at least 10 deep.  

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2016/RB
http://nfldraftgeek.com/runningbackrankings-2016nfldraft.html
http://walterfootball.com/draft2016RB.php
http://optimumscouting.com/rankings/static-rankings/rb-rankings.html
http://www.nfldraft101.com/draft/rankings/2016/rb.jsp
http://gbnreport.com/2015-nfl-draft-player-rankings/top-running-backs/
http://www.draftinsider.net/rankings/2016/RB
http://www.draftcountdown.com/nfl-draft-ranking/running-back-rankings/
http://proplayerinsiders.com/nfl-draft/
http://www.thehuddlereport.com/thr/valueboardpos.shtml
http://www.drafttek.com/2016-NFL-Draft-Prospect-Rankings/Top-College-RBs-2016-Draft.asp
http://www.scout.com/nfl/a.z?s=127&p=9&c=12&yr=2016&nid=83&lnid=124&rc=4&pid=11
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2016/tracker?icampaign=draft-sub_nav_bar-drafteventpage-tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position/dt-by-position-input:rb
http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-nfl-prospect-rankings-by-position/rankings/running-backs/3
http://www.draftscouts.com/player-rankings/runningback/
http://thedraftwire.usatoday.com/category/positional-rankings/
http://draftcentric.weebly.com/rb-rankings.html
http://draftbreakdown.com/category/rankings/
http://thereadoptional.com/rankings-by-position/
http://dynastyfootballwarehouse.com/16-rookie-guide/16-rookie-guide-wrs/

http://www.draftnasty.com/football/position_list/?list=RB&year=2016
https://www.profootballfocus.com/college-football/
http://www.rotoworld.com/archives/cfb/325/rankings
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl-mock-draft
http://football.realgm.com/news/analysis/author/161/Jeff-Risdon
http://draftdaddy.com/ranks/top10_RB.htm
http://dynastyleaguefootball.com/2016-rookie-wr-rankings/

For my own summary rankings, I weighted them based on my own stupid criteria, basically how professional the site looks, whether I've heard of the site/draftnik, whether I believe they did their own scouting, whether they've updated since February, how deep the rankings go, and whether they just didn't rank someone who's in everyone else's top 5.  That's what I use as my base pre-NFL-draft rankings.
Click to expand...
What if that player is Charles Rogers or something though Tick? Then it might be good to not have them top 5 like everyone else.

Did you compile for a consensus  ranking of all these? Curious to see the results of that as I haven't had time to read much this spring. I think Arif still intends to put out his composite list at some point (maybe already done but I haven't looked) which has been pure awesome the last couple years (and made me lazy but not as lazy as couch).

While talking about combined lists massraider could do us a favor and take his list from this year to the next level as well (if he wants I don't have the energy to ask him nicely).

 
Oh, I only tracked RBs and WRs, which is what I've done for the past few years.  QBs and TEs are usually pretty simple every year.

 
Hey Tick I finally got around to looking at the consensus lists of sources you compiled. Pretty impressive and thanks for sharing.

Biggest surprises to me are Braxton Miller being the 8th overall WR.

I should watch Lawler, Garrett, Johnathan Williams, Paul Perkins and some other guys I haven't yet.

 
Biabreakable said:
Hey Tick I finally got around to looking at the consensus lists of sources you compiled. Pretty impressive and thanks for sharing.

Biggest surprises to me are Braxton Miller being the 8th overall WR.

I should watch Lawler, Garrett, Johnathan Williams, Paul Perkins and some other guys I haven't yet.
Click to expand...
Yeah, some of those midlevel guys never get talked about.  Every show or even podcasts lists the top 5 and a sleeper from the 4th round, and skips everyone in between.

I've also noticed some trends... Alex Collins and Braxton Miller are falling down lists, Sterling Shepard and Kenny Dixon are rising up.

 
Going to do a separate tab with the final boards from the various draftniks.

 Added Mayock on there.  He has Wentz as his #1 overall player.   :unsure:

 
@massraider, have you started on 2017?  I just did a quick check of my links to see which sites look dead, but haven't done much else yet.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I finally got around to compiling a bunch of rankings and putting together a consensus for RBs and WRs.

I used these:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2017/RB
http://www.nfldraftgeek.com/running-back-rankings/
http://walterfootball.com/draft2017RB.php
http://gbnreport.com/2017-rb-prospects/
http://www.draftcountdown.com/nfl-draft-ranking/2017-running-back-rankings/
http://proplayerinsiders.com/nfl-draft/
http://www.thehuddlereport.com/thr/valueboard.shtml
http://www.scout.com/nfl/a.z?s=127&p=9&c=12&yr=2017&nid=83&lnid=124&rc=4&pid=11
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2017/tracker?icampaign=draft-sub_nav_bar-drafteventpage-tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position/dt-by-position-input:rb
http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-nfl-prospect-rankings-by-position/rankings/running-backs/3
http://www.draftscouts.com/player-rankings/runningback/
https://www.profootballfocus.com/nfl-draft-rb-rankings/
http://www.nfldraft101.com/draft/rankings/2017/rb.jsp
http://www.drafttek.com/2017-NFL-Draft-Prospect-Rankings/Top-College-RBs-2017-Draft.asp
http://thedraftwire.usatoday.com/category/positional-rankings/
http://www.draftnasty.com/football/position_list/?list=RB&year=2017
http://football.realgm.com/news/analysis/author/161/Jeff-Risdon
http://www.nflmock.com/#!big-board/c559

DraftCountdown has some pretty weird rankings, so I discounted them.

Results:

  1. Leonard Fournette
  2. Dalvin Cook
  3. Christian McCaffrey
  4. Alvin Kamara
  5. Joe Mixon
  6. Marlon Mack
  7. D'Onta Foreman
  8. Samaje Perine
  9. Wayne Gallman
  10. Kareem Hunt
  11. Jeremy McNichols
  12. Jamaal Williams
  13. Brian Hill
  14. James Conner
  15. Donnel Pumphrey
  16. Corey Clement
  17. TJ Logan

  1. Mike Williams
  2. Corey Davis
  3. John Ross
  4. Zay Jones
  5. JuJu Smith-Schuster
  6. Cooper Kupp
  7. Curtis Samuel
  8. Chris Godwin
  9. Dede Westbrook
  10. ArDarius Stewart
  11. Chad Hansen
  12. Isaiah Ford
  13. Carlos Henderson
  14. Taywan Taylor
  15. Amara Darboh
  16. Malachi Dupre
It used to be so easy to paste on these boards...


 
massraider said:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/16Tg-lSmA7aC9XAocNYSGEQyyQHwODoZ10zaJkxTK4y8/edit?usp=sharing
Click to expand...
massraider, have you done one for 2018?  I did a first pass today and came up with these sites:

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/prospectrankings/2018/RB
https://www.nfldraftgeek.com/2018-nfl-draft-prospect-rankings/
http://walterfootball.com/draft2008P.php
https://gbnreport.com/2018-rb-ranking/
http://www.draftcountdown.com/nfl-draft-ranking/2018-running-back-rankings/
http://proplayerinsiders.com/nfl-draft/
http://www.thehuddlereport.com/valueboard.shtml
http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/tracker?icampaign=draft-sub_nav_bar-drafteventpage-tracker#dt-tabs:dt-by-position/dt-by-position-input:rb
http://www.ourlads.com/ncaa-football-nfl-prospect-rankings-by-position/rankings/running-backs/3
http://www.draftscouts.com/player-rankings/runningback/
http://www.drafttek.com/2018-NFL-Draft-Prospect-Rankings/Top-College-RBs-2018-Draft.asp
http://thedraftwire.usatoday.com/category/positional-rankings/
http://www.nflmock.com/#!big-board/c559

Results:

  1. Saquon Barkley
  2. Derrius Guice
  3. Sony Michel
  4. Ronald Jones II
  5. Nick Chubb
  6. Kerryon Johnson
  7. Rashaad Penny
  8. Royce Freeman
  9. Kalen Ballage
  10. Mark Walton
  11. Nyheim Hines
  12. Josh Adams
  13. Bo Scarbrough
  14. Akrum Wadley
  15. John Kelly
  16. Justin Jackson


  1. Calvin Ridley
  2. Courtland Sutton
  3. Christian Kirk
  4. D.J. Moore
  5. James Washington
  6. Anthony Miller
  7. D.J. Chark
  8. Michael Gallup
  9. Deon Cain
  10. Dante Pettis
  11. Equanimeous St. Brown
  12. DaeSean Hamilton
  13. Auden Tate
  14. Simmie Cobbs
  15. Deontay Burnett
  16. Tre'Quan Smith
  17. Marcell Ateman
@Biabreakable

 
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