podunker
Footballguy
My draft strategy for 2010 is to be very flexible. I’m hearing lots of so called “experts” telling owners this is the year to take elite WR’s early, or this is the year to grab an elite QB early, or even TE. What is amazing about all that advise is that it is the same advise I have been hearing for the last three years. My leagues are all PPR, 12 team leagues, usually with a flex spot, so that is what I use to form my strategy. In most cases you know your draft slot a little while before you draft, but not always. In my main league we have a live draft with all the guys in one room and we draw for draft slots first, right before we start drafting. So I develop a strategy for three different slots in the draft. The “A” slot is pick 1-4, the “B” slot is pick 5-8, and “C” slot is pick 9-12. I have a few draft rules I follow to the tee that might help also. I take very few items to the draft. I have my own cheat sheet with players ranked at each position in tiers. I take a draft sheet I use to keep track of what the other owners are drafting each round. Finally, I will be taking this little draft flow chart to keep things in perspective throughout the draft. I also have some simple tips I keep in the back of my mind during the draft. Take the player on the better team when stuck between two or three players in a tier. Don’t try to always be the guy looking to get the best “value” pick, or be a slave to ADP lists. You end up losing players you want more often than not. If you like a player, don’t be afraid to jump up a round or two and take him. The same goes with your sleepers. If he is your sleeper, chances are he is someone else’s sleeper also, so don’t wait too long to grab him or as the old saying goes, “ you snooze you lose.” One final thing, I always take defense and kicker with the last two picks, period. Ok lets get the ball rolling……
First Round – Overall just take solid players with little or no question marks. However taking a RB1 gives you much greater flexibility the rest of the way.
A- Options: CJ, A Pete, Rice, MJD
Just take one of the top 4 RB’s and move on.
B- Options: Gore, S Jax, AJ, Fitz, Moss, Turner, etc.
Gore and Turner are the best two picks, but can’t argue against AJ. Gore is clear cut #5 pick, especially in PPR leagues. I see the fire back in Turner, plus he may surprise and catch a few passes this year on top of the TD’s and yards. The players in italic letters are the one’s I am staying away from if possible. S Jax is on a bad team, and has a rookie QB to boot. Fitz will still be good, but nothing like he was with Warner and Boldin on his team.
C- Options: Turner, Fitz, Moss, Wayne, Calvin, Rodgers, etc.
If Turner is available, take him without question. I like Moss and Calvin both better than Fitz and Wayne this year. Calvin finally has some help, and his QB has another year of experience. Moss has big play written all over him. I can’t really argue against Rodgers, but I probably wouldn’t take him. Here is a slot you may have to take a guy a little earlier than his ADP to get him. I like D Will in this slot a lot, even though he might last until middle of the second round. I think you could take Rodgers here and still have enough quality to recover in the next three rounds, but it will limit your flexibility.
Second Round- Here is when it can start to get tricky, don’t get caught up in the WR hype. It is ok to take that RB a little earlier than his ADP.
C- Options: Wayne, Calvin, White, Mendenhall, Austin, D Will, Marshall.
If you didn’t take a RB in round 1, I think you may have to take one here unless you want Benson or Wells as your RB1. If D Will is here, jump on him, or take the next best RB available on your cheat sheet regardless of ADP. I’m not sold on Mendy as an RB1, with Ben gone for at least 4 games. You might start out with 4 losses on your record. I really like these three guys much better (Matthews, McCoy, Grant) and would not hesitate to take them earlier. If you took a RB in round 1, you have the flexibility to go WR if you want, especially if Moss or Calvin are available.
B- Options: Marshall, Austin, White, Mendenhall, J Charles, Jennings, Brees
Read what I wrote above, must take RB if you didn’t in round 1, unless your fairly positive McCoy can get back to you. If you have a RB1, I would love to have Matthews, McCoy, or Grant as my RB2. But you can also take Brees or the top WR on your cheat sheet. J Charles is fools gold with that team, coach, and Thomas Jones in the backfield with him. One note: Everyone expects the 2nd round to be a WR fest. So if you continue to take them your feeding into the frenzy. You might just throw a wrench in things, and push back some top WR’s, by going with a RB in round two. Trust me there will still be some decent WR’s to take in rounds 3 and 4. Do you really like Jennings, Austin, and Marshall that much better than Carolina’s S. Smith or Boldin?
A – Options: Jennings, De Jacks, Peyton, J. Charles, Matthews, Grant, Colston
You went RB in round one, so take your pick and don’t forget to look and see who may have slipped down. I have seen D Will fall this far. If you don’t take a WR here, you must take one in round three. If you take a WR here, you can still take one in round three, and I recommend that. I am not real high on the WR2’s that will be available late round 4. Again taking a QB is ok, but limits you down the road. Colston is too inconsistent in that offense, you never know who is going to be the hot guy from week to week.
Third Round – This is the round to be very flexible and take players that may drop or are valued by you.
A – Options: Grant, Pierre, McCoy, Greene, De Jacks, Colston, NY Smith, Dal Clark, Top QB
Peyton has been known to drop this far, along with Jennings. It is also a good time to jump on someone you like regardless of his ADP like McCoy, S. Smith, Boldin, or even Brady, Romo. If you have a RB/WR already go ahead and reach for your guy. If you went RB/RB, you better take a WR. The only way I go RB again is if I want to start 3 RB’s each week, which has it’s pluses. Once again hoping to force other owner to take RB’s and push WR’s further down the draft board. Greene is unproven, has LT to share with and Sanchez hasn’t shown he can beat anyone with by passing. NY Smith has the emergence of Nicks to deal with and a healthy running game back. Dallas Clark is a stud, but too many pass catchers for Peyton this year for him to duplicate last years numbers. If you don’t take Brady, Romo or Schaub now they won’t get back to you.
B- Options: McCoy, Pierre, Greene, Benson, NY Smith, Rice, Boldin, Top QB, Clark
I don’t care who you have drafted at this point, if McCoy is still here at this point you have to take him. Otherwise take the top WR on your cheat sheet. Rice isn’t healthy.
C- Options: Benson, Wells, Rice, Boldin, S. Smith, Brady, Romo.
I really like Boldin and Carolina’s Steve Smith at this point, but Brady and Romo are nice picks also if you have good RB already. If you managed not to take a RB yet, you better grab Benson or the top RB on your draft sheet. Wells isn’t the starter on his team and can’t catch the ball. Don’t forget to check for players that may have dropped unexpectedly.
Fourth Round – Take the players you like and forget about ADP in this round.
C – Options: Romo, Brady, Schaub, Moreno, Stewart, Addai, Ocho, S. Smith, Welker, Gates
Let me say this first, Wes Welker is a steal in the 4th round. I don’t care who I have that is who I am targeting, period. I know what his adp is, but he will not make it through this round. If he is gone Gates, Brady, or Romo are nice picks. Moreno can’t stay healthy, and Stewart only saw the numbers he had because D Will was hurt. Addai is a little undervalued this year in my opinion.
B - Options: Schaub, Addai, Ocho, Welker, Crabtree, Moreno, Addai, Stewart
See below
A – Options: See above and add V. Davis.
Here is the bottom line on this round. If Welker is available take him first. Then take the best player available. If Brady falls, he is a nice pick. I also like Finley. J. Best, CJ Spiller, R. Bush, Brown, and M. Forte are also guys I’m targeting in this round and the next regardless of their stinking adp.
Fifth Round – Target those pass catching RB’s or last of the top TE’s
A- Options: Witten, Finley, Best, R. Brown, Forte, Rivers, Nicks, Bowe
You probably didn’t get Welker, so you probably got Best, Forte, or Brown last round. If you have two RB’s and two WR’s go for the top TE left. Probably Witten or Finley. Otherwise, grab R. Bush or Spiller to give a great flex back. Bowe is on a bad team.
B- Options: Finley, R. Brown, Rivers, Nicks, Bowe, Celek, Felix
There is a chance you snagged Welker, but still unlikely. You should have easily gotten Brown, Best, or Forte last round. So there is a good chance you can take the top TE left and still get Bush or Spiller on the return next round. If you don’t like any of the TE left, take Nicks. Felix is talented, but on a team with two other talented RB’s and he hasn’t stayed healthy the last two years. I just don’t like him this early.
C- Options: Felix, R. Bush, H. Ward, Sims-Walker, Celek, Spiller
You should have gotten Welker. Now your targets should be Bush and Spiller. If you need a decent WR2, Ward will do. Celek is the last of the top TE left. In reality you could have a team of Rodgers/Dwill/Ssmith/Welker/Bush/Spiller after your sixth pick. I would take that all day. Have you seen Sims-Walker’s team, they suck!
Sixth Round- stud QB’s andTE’s are gone, be patient after Gonzo and wait for both until the 8th round.
C-Options: Spiller, Barber, Jacobs, Gonzo, Harvin, Maclin, Cutler
Take Spiller right now unless he is gone. Then take Gonzo. Hines Ward might still be around also for the taking. I honestly like Bradshaw and Harrison better than Barber and Jacobs, so I would pull the trigger on one of those two guys now if I had too, because they won’t make it back to me. If I had to have a WR and Ward was not there, I would jump on T. Owens early and not look back. Someone will take him in the sixth round. Cutler has no line to block for pass plays, he will get killed this year. Harvin’s head worries me. Start drinking heavily if Spiller is still available!
B-Options: Cutler, Barber, Jacobs, Maclin, Harvin, S. Moss, M. Wallace, Forsett, Driver
I like S. Moss this year as a very good WR3 with 2 upside. Driver will be a solid WR3. I liked Forsett early, but with Washington healthy, not so much. If I had to go RB, Bradshaw and Harrison would be who I looked at. Maclin is still unproven, but has great potential. T.O!
A-Options: Wallace, Garcon, Driver, Forsett, Kolb, Bradshaw, Harrison
Take T. Owens right now! Otherwise look at your Top WR left, someone like Driver, S. Moss., Houshman, Breaston, and try to grab two in the next two picks. Kolb should put up some good numbers, so he is a fine pick also. Don’t forget about Bradshaw and Harrison. Wallace won’t have a decent QB throwing him the ball for the first 4 games.
Seventh Round- Look for Value this round, but go for the guys you want early if you have too
A-Options: Houshman, Bradshaw, Harrison, M. Floyd, Dez Bryant, V. Jackson, Breaston, Ricky
Once again, TAKE T. OWENS! I really like Housh , Floyd, and Breaston this round also. Bradshaw and Harrison may be gone, if not jump. Start thinking about Portis!
B-Options: Harrison, Ricky, Floyd, Housh, Breaston, Bryant, V. Jackson, Winslow, O. Daniels
Ok, here is the deal. If you have to have a RB at this point for whatever reason go ahead and take Portis right now. Winslow might not be a bad choice for a TE.
C-Options: Once again Portis right now if you need a RB. However, if you still don’t have a QB grab Favre and smile at the rest of your drafting buddies.
Eighth Round- QB and TE time has come for those without.
C- Options: Favre, Eli, Ryan, Flacco, Winslow, Z. Miller, D. Hester, Holmes, Gaffney, Portis
Take Favre, Eli, or Flacco with confidence if you need a QB. I like Z. Miller here also if you still need a TE. One final time, please take Clinton Portis. Gaffney could get taken later, so could Holmes and Hester, but don’t be afraid to take them now.
B- Options: Eli, Flacco, Z. Miller, D. Brown, M. Bush, A. Foster. Hester, Holmes, Gaffney
Ok, lets say Portis is gone. Bush, and Foster are fine RB to have at this point. However, there is one RB still left I like better, LT. I also like Cooley at TE a little earlier than his ADP. The WR are over the place by now, but one of the three above should still be there. Eli and Flacco still should be there also.
A.- Options: McNabb, Palmer, Stafford, Foster, Bush, McFadden, Cooley, Shiancoe, LT
Take one of these QB’s if you don’t have one yet. Take LT or one of these RB’s if you still need one. McFadden is a big question mark, but may pay off big in PPR league. Take Cooley or Shank at TE if you don’t have one yet.
Round Nine and Beyond!
Please take LT! I also like Sproles and Hightower very well. Don’t laugh, but take a flyer on Freddie Taylor late also.
If you got Welker, pick up Edelman in the 11th. L.Evans is way undervalued. Collie and A Gonz should be nabbed at some point also. L. Naanee will surprise some owners.
H. Miller will be a viable TE in a pinch. Keller, Carlson, Olsen, Shockey, will help. Gresham may surprise us all!
First Round – Overall just take solid players with little or no question marks. However taking a RB1 gives you much greater flexibility the rest of the way.
A- Options: CJ, A Pete, Rice, MJD
Just take one of the top 4 RB’s and move on.
B- Options: Gore, S Jax, AJ, Fitz, Moss, Turner, etc.
Gore and Turner are the best two picks, but can’t argue against AJ. Gore is clear cut #5 pick, especially in PPR leagues. I see the fire back in Turner, plus he may surprise and catch a few passes this year on top of the TD’s and yards. The players in italic letters are the one’s I am staying away from if possible. S Jax is on a bad team, and has a rookie QB to boot. Fitz will still be good, but nothing like he was with Warner and Boldin on his team.
C- Options: Turner, Fitz, Moss, Wayne, Calvin, Rodgers, etc.
If Turner is available, take him without question. I like Moss and Calvin both better than Fitz and Wayne this year. Calvin finally has some help, and his QB has another year of experience. Moss has big play written all over him. I can’t really argue against Rodgers, but I probably wouldn’t take him. Here is a slot you may have to take a guy a little earlier than his ADP to get him. I like D Will in this slot a lot, even though he might last until middle of the second round. I think you could take Rodgers here and still have enough quality to recover in the next three rounds, but it will limit your flexibility.
Second Round- Here is when it can start to get tricky, don’t get caught up in the WR hype. It is ok to take that RB a little earlier than his ADP.
C- Options: Wayne, Calvin, White, Mendenhall, Austin, D Will, Marshall.
If you didn’t take a RB in round 1, I think you may have to take one here unless you want Benson or Wells as your RB1. If D Will is here, jump on him, or take the next best RB available on your cheat sheet regardless of ADP. I’m not sold on Mendy as an RB1, with Ben gone for at least 4 games. You might start out with 4 losses on your record. I really like these three guys much better (Matthews, McCoy, Grant) and would not hesitate to take them earlier. If you took a RB in round 1, you have the flexibility to go WR if you want, especially if Moss or Calvin are available.
B- Options: Marshall, Austin, White, Mendenhall, J Charles, Jennings, Brees
Read what I wrote above, must take RB if you didn’t in round 1, unless your fairly positive McCoy can get back to you. If you have a RB1, I would love to have Matthews, McCoy, or Grant as my RB2. But you can also take Brees or the top WR on your cheat sheet. J Charles is fools gold with that team, coach, and Thomas Jones in the backfield with him. One note: Everyone expects the 2nd round to be a WR fest. So if you continue to take them your feeding into the frenzy. You might just throw a wrench in things, and push back some top WR’s, by going with a RB in round two. Trust me there will still be some decent WR’s to take in rounds 3 and 4. Do you really like Jennings, Austin, and Marshall that much better than Carolina’s S. Smith or Boldin?
A – Options: Jennings, De Jacks, Peyton, J. Charles, Matthews, Grant, Colston
You went RB in round one, so take your pick and don’t forget to look and see who may have slipped down. I have seen D Will fall this far. If you don’t take a WR here, you must take one in round three. If you take a WR here, you can still take one in round three, and I recommend that. I am not real high on the WR2’s that will be available late round 4. Again taking a QB is ok, but limits you down the road. Colston is too inconsistent in that offense, you never know who is going to be the hot guy from week to week.
Third Round – This is the round to be very flexible and take players that may drop or are valued by you.
A – Options: Grant, Pierre, McCoy, Greene, De Jacks, Colston, NY Smith, Dal Clark, Top QB
Peyton has been known to drop this far, along with Jennings. It is also a good time to jump on someone you like regardless of his ADP like McCoy, S. Smith, Boldin, or even Brady, Romo. If you have a RB/WR already go ahead and reach for your guy. If you went RB/RB, you better take a WR. The only way I go RB again is if I want to start 3 RB’s each week, which has it’s pluses. Once again hoping to force other owner to take RB’s and push WR’s further down the draft board. Greene is unproven, has LT to share with and Sanchez hasn’t shown he can beat anyone with by passing. NY Smith has the emergence of Nicks to deal with and a healthy running game back. Dallas Clark is a stud, but too many pass catchers for Peyton this year for him to duplicate last years numbers. If you don’t take Brady, Romo or Schaub now they won’t get back to you.
B- Options: McCoy, Pierre, Greene, Benson, NY Smith, Rice, Boldin, Top QB, Clark
I don’t care who you have drafted at this point, if McCoy is still here at this point you have to take him. Otherwise take the top WR on your cheat sheet. Rice isn’t healthy.
C- Options: Benson, Wells, Rice, Boldin, S. Smith, Brady, Romo.
I really like Boldin and Carolina’s Steve Smith at this point, but Brady and Romo are nice picks also if you have good RB already. If you managed not to take a RB yet, you better grab Benson or the top RB on your draft sheet. Wells isn’t the starter on his team and can’t catch the ball. Don’t forget to check for players that may have dropped unexpectedly.
Fourth Round – Take the players you like and forget about ADP in this round.
C – Options: Romo, Brady, Schaub, Moreno, Stewart, Addai, Ocho, S. Smith, Welker, Gates
Let me say this first, Wes Welker is a steal in the 4th round. I don’t care who I have that is who I am targeting, period. I know what his adp is, but he will not make it through this round. If he is gone Gates, Brady, or Romo are nice picks. Moreno can’t stay healthy, and Stewart only saw the numbers he had because D Will was hurt. Addai is a little undervalued this year in my opinion.
B - Options: Schaub, Addai, Ocho, Welker, Crabtree, Moreno, Addai, Stewart
See below
A – Options: See above and add V. Davis.
Here is the bottom line on this round. If Welker is available take him first. Then take the best player available. If Brady falls, he is a nice pick. I also like Finley. J. Best, CJ Spiller, R. Bush, Brown, and M. Forte are also guys I’m targeting in this round and the next regardless of their stinking adp.
Fifth Round – Target those pass catching RB’s or last of the top TE’s
A- Options: Witten, Finley, Best, R. Brown, Forte, Rivers, Nicks, Bowe
You probably didn’t get Welker, so you probably got Best, Forte, or Brown last round. If you have two RB’s and two WR’s go for the top TE left. Probably Witten or Finley. Otherwise, grab R. Bush or Spiller to give a great flex back. Bowe is on a bad team.
B- Options: Finley, R. Brown, Rivers, Nicks, Bowe, Celek, Felix
There is a chance you snagged Welker, but still unlikely. You should have easily gotten Brown, Best, or Forte last round. So there is a good chance you can take the top TE left and still get Bush or Spiller on the return next round. If you don’t like any of the TE left, take Nicks. Felix is talented, but on a team with two other talented RB’s and he hasn’t stayed healthy the last two years. I just don’t like him this early.
C- Options: Felix, R. Bush, H. Ward, Sims-Walker, Celek, Spiller
You should have gotten Welker. Now your targets should be Bush and Spiller. If you need a decent WR2, Ward will do. Celek is the last of the top TE left. In reality you could have a team of Rodgers/Dwill/Ssmith/Welker/Bush/Spiller after your sixth pick. I would take that all day. Have you seen Sims-Walker’s team, they suck!
Sixth Round- stud QB’s andTE’s are gone, be patient after Gonzo and wait for both until the 8th round.
C-Options: Spiller, Barber, Jacobs, Gonzo, Harvin, Maclin, Cutler
Take Spiller right now unless he is gone. Then take Gonzo. Hines Ward might still be around also for the taking. I honestly like Bradshaw and Harrison better than Barber and Jacobs, so I would pull the trigger on one of those two guys now if I had too, because they won’t make it back to me. If I had to have a WR and Ward was not there, I would jump on T. Owens early and not look back. Someone will take him in the sixth round. Cutler has no line to block for pass plays, he will get killed this year. Harvin’s head worries me. Start drinking heavily if Spiller is still available!
B-Options: Cutler, Barber, Jacobs, Maclin, Harvin, S. Moss, M. Wallace, Forsett, Driver
I like S. Moss this year as a very good WR3 with 2 upside. Driver will be a solid WR3. I liked Forsett early, but with Washington healthy, not so much. If I had to go RB, Bradshaw and Harrison would be who I looked at. Maclin is still unproven, but has great potential. T.O!
A-Options: Wallace, Garcon, Driver, Forsett, Kolb, Bradshaw, Harrison
Take T. Owens right now! Otherwise look at your Top WR left, someone like Driver, S. Moss., Houshman, Breaston, and try to grab two in the next two picks. Kolb should put up some good numbers, so he is a fine pick also. Don’t forget about Bradshaw and Harrison. Wallace won’t have a decent QB throwing him the ball for the first 4 games.
Seventh Round- Look for Value this round, but go for the guys you want early if you have too
A-Options: Houshman, Bradshaw, Harrison, M. Floyd, Dez Bryant, V. Jackson, Breaston, Ricky
Once again, TAKE T. OWENS! I really like Housh , Floyd, and Breaston this round also. Bradshaw and Harrison may be gone, if not jump. Start thinking about Portis!
B-Options: Harrison, Ricky, Floyd, Housh, Breaston, Bryant, V. Jackson, Winslow, O. Daniels
Ok, here is the deal. If you have to have a RB at this point for whatever reason go ahead and take Portis right now. Winslow might not be a bad choice for a TE.
C-Options: Once again Portis right now if you need a RB. However, if you still don’t have a QB grab Favre and smile at the rest of your drafting buddies.
Eighth Round- QB and TE time has come for those without.
C- Options: Favre, Eli, Ryan, Flacco, Winslow, Z. Miller, D. Hester, Holmes, Gaffney, Portis
Take Favre, Eli, or Flacco with confidence if you need a QB. I like Z. Miller here also if you still need a TE. One final time, please take Clinton Portis. Gaffney could get taken later, so could Holmes and Hester, but don’t be afraid to take them now.
B- Options: Eli, Flacco, Z. Miller, D. Brown, M. Bush, A. Foster. Hester, Holmes, Gaffney
Ok, lets say Portis is gone. Bush, and Foster are fine RB to have at this point. However, there is one RB still left I like better, LT. I also like Cooley at TE a little earlier than his ADP. The WR are over the place by now, but one of the three above should still be there. Eli and Flacco still should be there also.
A.- Options: McNabb, Palmer, Stafford, Foster, Bush, McFadden, Cooley, Shiancoe, LT
Take one of these QB’s if you don’t have one yet. Take LT or one of these RB’s if you still need one. McFadden is a big question mark, but may pay off big in PPR league. Take Cooley or Shank at TE if you don’t have one yet.
Round Nine and Beyond!
Please take LT! I also like Sproles and Hightower very well. Don’t laugh, but take a flyer on Freddie Taylor late also.
If you got Welker, pick up Edelman in the 11th. L.Evans is way undervalued. Collie and A Gonz should be nabbed at some point also. L. Naanee will surprise some owners.
H. Miller will be a viable TE in a pinch. Keller, Carlson, Olsen, Shockey, will help. Gresham may surprise us all!
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