Draft Habits (1 Viewer)

[kinglochness]

First, I apologize if this doesn't belong in the Shark Pool but I'm not sure which forum to post it in. I'm curious to see how much everyone uses previous year's draft boards in researching opponent's draft tendencies. I've been in a league with mostly same group since 2005. I obviously know who is more likely to take a first round QB and who will take RB's for their first 3 picks every year. I'm looking to find a way to really analyze the data and incorporate it into my draft this year. Any thoughts would be appreciated. Thanks.

 

[I was in the pool]

Just make an excel sheet. I have one for my local league to chart draft behaviors

 

[LittlePhatty]

I rely heavily on info from previous drafts. If you have the same owners every year it would be a shame not to. And if you're just joining such a league, you should ask to see the draft results from previous years. Other owners have that info so you should too.

I mostly track position data, i.e. how many RB/QB/WR are taken in each round. Then I'll average that over the past couple of years. If I'm targeting a specific QB or WR, this helps give me a rough idea as to which round I would need to snag them in if I really wanted them. Then I'll see if specific owners have trends. Some follow the same routine every year, but most don't.

 

[Sweet Love]

I like the idea of it, but I think you will find that if you chart back to 2005, you will find little consistency in your leaguemates habits. The main reason is that the game is in a state of flux when it comes to scoring due to the actual game. For example, I also started a league in 2005 (Keep 3) and the first 4 years I would consistently keep two RBs, and then leave the first or second round with another (we are able to start up to four RBs). At the time, it worked pretty well, but since we give a full point for receptions by TEs (RB/WR is .5) and QBs get 6 points for a TD pass, I had to change my strategy due to the fact that QBs are throwing more now, and TEs are putting up pinball numbers. I still keep my two RBs, BUT two years ago, a very competitive league mate commented to me that he was stunned when at the turn of 1st/2nd I went QB/TE, and actually said it threw him into a tailspin. For me, it really wasn't a conscience decision; I just let the draft come to me and that was where the value was.

I would say chart out the first 8 or so rounds and only go back about 3 years...and even then, use it as a loose guide and not fool proof plan.

 

[Sweet Love]

I rely heavily on info from previous drafts. If you have the same owners every year it would be a shame not to. And if you're just joining such a league, you should ask to see the draft results from previous years. Other owners have that info so you should too.I mostly track position data, i.e. how many RB/QB/WR are taken in each round. Then I'll average that over the past couple of years. If I'm targeting a specific QB or WR, this helps give me a rough idea as to which round I would need to snag them in if I really wanted them. Then I'll see if specific owners have trends. Some follow the same routine every year, but most don't.

So you are charting more where certain positions go versus which team is taking a specific position? If so, I think that is a good way of looking at it.

 

[griff321]

I've found that knowing the tendencies of your leaguemates is one of the most important tools you can possibly have.

You'll be inundated with ADPs and trade advice designed to help you get the best "value" out of every pick and move, but it always lacks the dynamic variable of people.

 

[themoneybadger]

In my auction keeper, I keep values from 3 years back and only 3 years.

Due to that information I already know their weaknesses by what they to focus on early, their downfalls like holding onto money in order to find bargains late, and how they like to spread the wealth.

Having information for years is a priceless tool that I would never give up.

 

[fightingillini]

You should always know what you're leaguemates do when drafting. That is a big part of determining what my strategy will be. I want to know the following:

1) What is their early round strategy? Are they a stud RB guy? Do they take best player?

2) When do they take their starting QB?

3) When do they take their starting TE?

4) Do they fill out their starters before going to reserves?

5) Are they consistent year in and year out? I played with a guy that always took 3 RBs with is first 3 picks. Every year. Easy to draft against him. But in my experience, most don't have a consistent plan across the board.

6) Do my leaguemates overvalue players coming off of career years? Do they undervalue players coming off of an injury or had a bad year that wasn't their fault?

7) Do my leaguemates overvalue players from the home team? Or from their favorite team?

As others have said, use it as a guide in dictating what your optimal strategy is.

 

[LittlePhatty]

So you are charting more where certain positions go versus which team is taking a specific position? If so, I think that is a good way of looking at it.

Yeah. And I'll just look at the previous 2 or 3 years.I wind up with stuff like this:Round1 = 7 RB, 3 QB, 2 WRRound2 = 5 RB, 3 QB, 4 WRAnd I only do the first 4 or 5 rounds. It's pretty useless after that. Nothing is a sure bet, but in the past it has helped me make decisions about waiting on a player or needing to jump on them early. That's about it.

 

[rizzler]

If your leaguemates have "strong tendencies" you're drafting with rooks.

If I took any heed with last season's draft I'd get screwed like Lela Star

 

[Eminence]

I always take Beanie Wells.

 

[griff321]

If your leaguemates have "strong tendencies" you're drafting with rooks.

If I took any heed with last season's draft I'd get screwed like Lela Star

I strongly disagree with this statement. It's absurd to think every single person thinks and acts the same. If you're dismissive of this fact than you're doing yourself a major disservice.

 

[LittlePhatty]

If your leaguemates have "strong tendencies" you're drafting with rooks.

Who gives a crap? Their money spends just as well as anyone else's.

 

[Eminence]

If your leaguemates have "strong tendencies" you're drafting with rooks.

Who gives a crap? Their money spends just as well as anyone else's.

Exactly, at the end of the day there is a cash prize for all of this. I'll easily prey on others negligence.

 

[rizzler]

If your leaguemates have "strong tendencies" you're drafting with rooks.

Who gives a crap? Their money spends just as well as anyone else's.

Exactly, at the end of the day there is a cash prize for all of this. I'll easily prey on others negligence.

Winning easy money wasn't my point. I'd gladly cash in off other's stupidity.Problem is, my $ league is the same 12 guys for the past million years. I've analyzed tendencies over and over. There are none. Every member adapts to the fantasy climate quite well and attempting to peg their picks is futile.Point was, if you're drafting with dedicated players, tendencies are rarely existant, imo

 

[LittlePhatty]

Problem is, my $ league is the same 12 guys for the past million years. I've analyzed tendencies over and over. There are none. Every member adapts to the fantasy climate quite well and attempting to peg their picks is futile.

That's still good info to have, so it's not a valid argument against doing the research. I don't think anyone here is talking about predicting actual players, we're talking more along the lines of getting a "fuzzy" preview of how things might go down. If you've found out that everyone in your league is well-prepared then you might want to jump on your favorite sleeper pick a few rounds earlier than you normally would have.

 

[kutta]

I find the only time it really helps me is if I draft from the 2-3 spot or the 10-11 spot. If I'm in the 11 spot and I have a good idea of what the guy at the turn will do, I can better determine which of the two guys I plan to draft next I should draft first. I actually usually seek out the 10 or 11 spot for this exact reason.

 

[Tchula]

This strategy completely backfired on me last year. I drafted 15 of 16 last year in a league where passing TD's are 6 points. Usually 14 teams have a qb by the end of round three. I snapped mine up in round 2, thinking there would be nothing left. They bucked the trend! Only 5 qb's off the board by the end of round 3. Stafford didn't go until round 5. Now I have no clue what is going to happen this year.

 

[footballnerd]

just like poker baby....

this also works round by round if you know someone who is likely to take similar guys to you, is drafting in front of you the next round, you better swoop your player now. Or if you know a guy in front of you is overdue to make his early QB pick soon you can maybe wait.

 

[drunken slob]

My personal draft is different. I employ the Value Based Drafting spreadsheet and a myfantasyleague.com filtered ADP twelve hours or so before draft.

I don't do what follows, but this is what I have observed over many years of drafting.

Wanna know what the other dudes are doing in your draft?

Just print rankings from a bland website with letters of any variety and track the picks from that. These are your List Drafters. There are always three to six dudes that just show up with some generic list and pull from others when the position need comes up.

Unless the other guys in your league are on this board, then they are mostly inattentive until a few days from the draft.

Remember, some dudes use this event to get loose simply because they have a ride home and the wife won't hate on them so much. (In other words, most people don't prepare until the week before at best.)

Remember the List-Drafters

 

[ratbast]

The proper use of "tiering" pretty much eliminates the need for information on the other teams.

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

I do know some of my league mates' tendencies - the "easy" money of the league - but I don't track it. I basically draft with the flow of the draft. My basic strategy is take the least risky player available (essentially) - which is almost like taking the best player available - until I can't. Then I shift to drafting explosive players that may be raw but have much potential.

 

[GroveDiesel]

If your leaguemates have "strong tendencies" you're drafting with rooks.

Who gives a crap? Their money spends just as well as anyone else's.

Exactly, at the end of the day there is a cash prize for all of this. I'll easily prey on others negligence.

Winning easy money wasn't my point. I'd gladly cash in off other's stupidity.Problem is, my $ league is the same 12 guys for the past million years. I've analyzed tendencies over and over. There are none. Every member adapts to the fantasy climate quite well and attempting to peg their picks is futile.Point was, if you're drafting with dedicated players, tendencies are rarely existant, imo

I'm totally with you. In my main league, everyone is very good and drafts where the value is. There is ons guy that loves to stock RBs, but that doesn't mean he won't take a QB or WR in the first round either. If you're drafting in a tough league with smart drafters, after several years you realize it's pointless to track previous drafts because they're going to all adapt to this year's draft just like yourself. You're better off having good tiers setup and a good idea what rounds you'll look for specific sleepers in then draft off of that.If you're playing in a league with guys that are predictable enough to do the same thing every year, then more power to you. Take those suckers for everything they're worth.

 

[cheese]

I basically know the tendencies in my local leagues, but I hardly use them. I prefer to focus on my team and what I'm doing than worry about what others are doing around me.

The only exception is if I'm 2nd or 11th and I'm trying to decide which guy I can get on the other side of the turn.

 

[RUSF18]

Like some others, I mostly use it when I'm close to the turn for an edge on who I might need to grab now vs who to wait on.

It works other ways too. I watch more college football than the majority of guys in my league, so I usually do better with rookie selections. It peaked when I drafted Peterson in his rookie year. Ever since, guys have made it a point to try to grab the consensus top rookies (RBs specifically) before I can, even when it ends up being a guy I'm not interested in or don't want until X rounds later.

 

[Tanner9919]

just like poker baby....

this also works round by round if you know someone who is likely to take similar guys to you, is drafting in front of you the next round, you better swoop your player now. Or if you know a guy in front of you is overdue to make his early QB pick soon you can maybe wait.

I use the same strategy...it's really more of a 'screw your neighbor' type of thing...if you don't really need a 2nd RB here,but the guy behind you definitely , badly needs to take his first RB, it's a good time to take best available RB on the board..esp if this is an owner who is a consistent winner/playoff contender..if he's a streaky owner who rarely makes the postseason, I'll let it slide and go drafting for need at another position..

have to be careful not to get too cute and get too caught up in the screw your neighbor thing, at some point you have to stop paying attention to other team's and start paying attention to your own needs.

it's a fine line to walk.

 

[vesihiisi]

I always take a defense in round two. True, I haven't made the playoffs in six years, but it's a meticulously planned long con- this year I'm taking the best player available when my leaguemates expect me to pick up a D. They're so screwed.

 

[kinglochness]

Thanks for all the opinions. While compiling my spreadsheet, I picked up on something else. A few guys in my league have drafted the same player several years in a row. Has anyone else seen this and, if so, have you had any success predicting a specific player an opponent is targeting?

 

[rizzler]

Thanks for all the opinions. While compiling my spreadsheet, I picked up on something else. A few guys in my league have drafted the same player several years in a row. Has anyone else seen this and, if so, have you had any success predicting a specific player an opponent is targeting?

unless the player is a guy you're after, and you're not going out of your way to get him.. just leave him alone.some guys have hardons for certain players. and that's cool. if he's a good enough player, he's not the only one after him. he either keeps reaching to get him, or noone else really wants him at the spot he's being taken.

be weary of this type of thing. you're overthinking this, imo

draft your draft

 

[RUSF18]

Thanks for all the opinions. While compiling my spreadsheet, I picked up on something else. A few guys in my league have drafted the same player several years in a row. Has anyone else seen this and, if so, have you had any success predicting a specific player an opponent is targeting?

Absolutely. Guy in my league is notorious for drafting old vets. Rarely, rarely takes a guy with less than 3 years in the league. He likes the consistency and being able to count on a guy's floor even if it means his ceiling might only be marginally higher. There have been many times in the past where we've written down his Donald Driver, Derrick Mason, Tony G, etc type pick even before he announced it. He's a competitive owner year to year.

 

[massraider]

I always take a defense in round two. True, I haven't made the playoffs in six years, but it's a meticulously planned long con- this year I'm taking the best player available when my leaguemates expect me to pick up a D. They're so screwed.

 

[GreatLakesMike]

I don't pay the slightest bit attention to what my league mates are doing. I try to follow the KISS method in about everything I do in life. I find it generally works for the best.

I draft BPA. If I draft Rodgers in the first and come 4th round, Brady or Brees is sitting there as the BPA, then I'm drafting another QB. I was a RB-RB guy my first year or two in fantasy and quickly realized that drafting a position just to draft a position is not generally a recipe for success. Since then, I've been pretty successful despite having some really weird drafts. I might not take a WR until the 6th round... maybe not draft a RB until the 4th.... who knows? Tiering players certainly helps, but I don't think there's a need to do spreadsheets, etc. I can remember my tiers.

 

[ponchsox]

If you guys were in a 14 team redraft that starts 3 RB, would you take RBs in the first three rounds or 2/3 rounds?

 

[Bobby Guano]

I've been in the same league with pretty much the same owners for almost 20 years now and everybody has their thing. One guy loads up on high risk/reward players every year another drafts a QB/WR combo with his first 2 picks, there's still RB/RB guy and like somebody else mentioned one guy only drafts vets. There's some variation but I've noticed we all have certain tendancies toward specific strategies and certain players.

As others have said its good to pay attention to this stuff so you know when you might need to reach for a guy your targeting or hold off a round or two.

I know I've developed a couple habits the past few years and until they stop working I'm sticking with them. I don't really care if my league mates notice either as long as I can get the guys I want!