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Draft History (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter whoiskb
- Start date
Jeff Pasquino
Footballguy
I assume you mean in repeat leagues (same owners, year over year)?I'd look for trends - both in draft patterns (does Owner X always go RB-RB-WR-RB?) and also if they love certain players.Also look to see what players were drafted 10% higher or lower than that year's ADP. See if rookies go too early or if 2nd/3rd yr players go too late - that sort of thing.Good luck.
nygiants56
Footballguy
I'm looking for young players that are backups, who have an aging vet in front of them..LJ with Priest. SA with Ricky Watters.
I'm also looking at 3rd year WR's, because that rule can be graphed out over the years to near 100% certainty, that WR's generally break out in the third NFL season. see Cotchery last year.
I'm looking for players on teams with a new coaching staff, because it usually means a new offensive philosophy. For this season, Az , Pitt ( wr's should get more looks than in the Cowher era), Carolina, Atl, Miami, Dallas, should see a turnaround in offensive production..
Last season, it was N.O., Detroit, NYJ, SF..
I'm also looking at 3rd year WR's, because that rule can be graphed out over the years to near 100% certainty, that WR's generally break out in the third NFL season. see Cotchery last year.
I'm looking for players on teams with a new coaching staff, because it usually means a new offensive philosophy. For this season, Az , Pitt ( wr's should get more looks than in the Cowher era), Carolina, Atl, Miami, Dallas, should see a turnaround in offensive production..
Last season, it was N.O., Detroit, NYJ, SF..
QuizGuy66
Footballguy
The biggest thing I try to get a handle on is how many of each position have been selected by the time it is my turn to pick each round. As 
as it may seem I'm still debating Palmer v. Parker as my keeper b/c I don't love the down-round QBs and think there still could be some actual RB value there when it comes to my pix at 30 and 31. (We can keep 2 a year and I really think Palmer is like 30 TDs times 5 years). Last year I protected Palmer instead of Tiki to go with Steven Jackson and I ended up winning the whole thing in large part b/c of his finishing kick. (Btw I got Parker at pick #29)
The league's been together for like 17 years, so I know he'll be gone at 30. No doubt. Anway, I digress...
I generally figure out the probable worst case scenario with each pick and plan accordingly. In years where I don't have consecutive picks, I try to figure out where the teams in between are likely to go as well. This can come in very handy when it comes time for the TE and K picks at the very end if you know the tendencies of the other folks.
-QG
as it may seem I'm still debating Palmer v. Parker as my keeper b/c I don't love the down-round QBs and think there still could be some actual RB value there when it comes to my pix at 30 and 31. (We can keep 2 a year and I really think Palmer is like 30 TDs times 5 years). Last year I protected Palmer instead of Tiki to go with Steven Jackson and I ended up winning the whole thing in large part b/c of his finishing kick. (Btw I got Parker at pick #29)The league's been together for like 17 years, so I know he'll be gone at 30. No doubt. Anway, I digress...
I generally figure out the probable worst case scenario with each pick and plan accordingly. In years where I don't have consecutive picks, I try to figure out where the teams in between are likely to go as well. This can come in very handy when it comes time for the TE and K picks at the very end if you know the tendencies of the other folks.
-QG
Here are my notes from last year. "O1" stands for Owner #1, etc. It was more useful in predicting the first few rounds ahead of time. You don't really have the time during the draft to use it.
OWNER NOTES FOR FIRST 6 ROUNDS:
O1: Fills up roster in 1st 6 rounds, no other pattern.
O2: 3 RB in 1st 6 rounds (taking #3 in the 6th), QB in 1st 3, waits until 7 to take 3rd WR.
O3: Fills up roster in 1st 6 rounds.
O4: 3 RB in 1st 6 rounds, waits til 7th to take 3rd WR.
O5: 1 RB/1WR in 1st 2 rnds, 5-6 rnd for QB. May take 3 RB in 1st 6 rounds.
O6: Fills roster, 2 RB in 1st 3 rounds; QB in 6th.
O7: QB in first 3 rounds; fills roster.
O8: RB/RB, with QB 4-6 rounds. May take 3 RB.
O9: Waits from 5-8 on QB, at least RB in 1st round. 3 RB in 1st 6.
O10: RB/RB, 4-5 rnd for QB. May take 3 RB.
O11: RB in 1st. Waits 4-6 for QB, may take 3 RB.
O12: Late QB (6-8) and 3 RB in top 6 rounds.
OWNER NOTES FOR FIRST 6 ROUNDS:
O1: Fills up roster in 1st 6 rounds, no other pattern.
O2: 3 RB in 1st 6 rounds (taking #3 in the 6th), QB in 1st 3, waits until 7 to take 3rd WR.
O3: Fills up roster in 1st 6 rounds.
O4: 3 RB in 1st 6 rounds, waits til 7th to take 3rd WR.
O5: 1 RB/1WR in 1st 2 rnds, 5-6 rnd for QB. May take 3 RB in 1st 6 rounds.
O6: Fills roster, 2 RB in 1st 3 rounds; QB in 6th.
O7: QB in first 3 rounds; fills roster.
O8: RB/RB, with QB 4-6 rounds. May take 3 RB.
O9: Waits from 5-8 on QB, at least RB in 1st round. 3 RB in 1st 6.
O10: RB/RB, 4-5 rnd for QB. May take 3 RB.
O11: RB in 1st. Waits 4-6 for QB, may take 3 RB.
O12: Late QB (6-8) and 3 RB in top 6 rounds.
Doug Drinen
Moderator
I tend to look for more macro trends.
I'm in a 10-team league that has had mostly the same owners since the 90s and exactly the same owners for four years now. Let's say I know I'm going to be drafting in the 7th slot. So I have picks 7, 14, 27, 34, 47, 54, etc. For each of those slots, I'll look back at the past drafts (easily accessible via MFL ) and figure out the maximum and minimum number of players at each position that have been taken before that slot. For example, my chart might look like this (just a top-of-head-example):
QBs gone RBs gone WRs gone======================================================before pick 7 0--1 6--7 0--1before pick 14 1--3 9--12 1--4before pick 27 2--5 16--21 9--13...Then I take an ADP list, some specific knowledge about the homerism of certain owners, and some gut feels, and I turn this chart into a chart with actual names on it. E.g. WRs that might be available at pick 27: Owens, Colston, Boldin, A Johnson
WRs that will probably be available at pick 27: Walker, Evans, Houshmandzadeh, Moss, ...
And so on.
Then I just mock out lots of different scenarios, and my chart helps me to answer questions like:
"if I spend my three first picks on RB, what will my starting WRs look like? and can I live with that?"
"if I think about going stud WR, what kind of RB group can I get by using my 3rd, 4th, and 5th picks at that position?"
"can I wait til round 7 to take my first QB? Round 8? Round 9?"
I'm in a 10-team league that has had mostly the same owners since the 90s and exactly the same owners for four years now. Let's say I know I'm going to be drafting in the 7th slot. So I have picks 7, 14, 27, 34, 47, 54, etc. For each of those slots, I'll look back at the past drafts (easily accessible via MFL
) and figure out the maximum and minimum number of players at each position that have been taken before that slot. For example, my chart might look like this (just a top-of-head-example):QBs gone RBs gone WRs gone======================================================before pick 7 0--1 6--7 0--1before pick 14 1--3 9--12 1--4before pick 27 2--5 16--21 9--13...Then I take an ADP list, some specific knowledge about the homerism of certain owners, and some gut feels, and I turn this chart into a chart with actual names on it. E.g. WRs that might be available at pick 27: Owens, Colston, Boldin, A Johnson
WRs that will probably be available at pick 27: Walker, Evans, Houshmandzadeh, Moss, ...
And so on.
Then I just mock out lots of different scenarios, and my chart helps me to answer questions like:
"if I spend my three first picks on RB, what will my starting WRs look like? and can I live with that?"
"if I think about going stud WR, what kind of RB group can I get by using my 3rd, 4th, and 5th picks at that position?"
"can I wait til round 7 to take my first QB? Round 8? Round 9?"
Last edited by a moderator:
gethugefast1
Footballguy
Last 3 years (same 10 owners) our league has gone RB heavy. QB's get 3 pts. per/TD, 1 pt. per/25 yds passing. 1 keeper, 13 rounds.
Starters: 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1Flex, 1DST, 1K (6 Bench)
Last year (my 1st, I did not no the previous patterns), after the keepers (all RB's)...
Rounds 1-3: 29 RB's & 1 WR were drafted.
Rounds 4-8: 6 RB's, 43 WR's, 1 TE
9 & 10: 3 WR's, 16 QB's, 1 TE
11-13: 3 QB's, 2 TE's, 10 K's, 3 RB's, 1 WR, 11 DST's
I obviously got caught up in the draft pattern and drafted th same as everyone else...
...(Keeper)RB RB RB RB RB/WR WR WR WR WR QB QB ? K DST
Unbelievebly, if this pattern should persist this year, I will be able to jump ahead of all the other owners after my keeper & 2RB and get the Top WRs, QBs & DSTs. I COULD go...if most ADP stay the same in late August as today
...(Keeper)RB RB WR WR WR WR QB QB QB DST DST RB RB K...
and SHOULD end up with...
Maroney(Keeper)
R. Johnson (3rd available)
S. Smith ADP1
M. Harrison ADP2
TO ADP7
R. Williams ADP11
P. Manning ADP1
C. Palmer ADP2
D.Brees ADP3
Bears ADP1
Ravens ADP2
RB
RB
I doubt once I change the previous drafting patterns other will not follow, but if they do not...I should breeze to the championship, barring many fluke injuries.
And no, there are no opening in our league. And yes, it is a $ league.
Nemesis
Footballguy
I keep all my drafts on paper (with the owners as the columns and the rounds going down the left hand side as rows).
This lets me analyze the past drafts in several ways.
1-I scan the individual columns of a particular drafter and try to spot trends of that particular owner similar to what Hugonel describes.(I go back 2 yrs if necessary). I make sure to study the drafters that are drafting next to me THIS YR
2-I look at the 1st, 2nd, 3rd round similar to what Drinen does (how many QBs, WR are usually selected in each round or by the end of the 3rd round?)
3-I take a black sharpie pen and draw a horizontal line half way thru the draft. I figure that by the half way point, most teams have selected their skill starters and are now concentrating on depth. Who grabs the most RBs? Who drafts only 1 QB? If it is a keeper league, what selections from the bottom half of the draft ended up being keepers for this upcoming year and why was that? (trade, injury)
4-I grab several hi-liters. I hi-lite all the Kickers in one color, all the defenses in another color, and if it is a TE league them in another color. By doing this, I can visually see the distribution of when the Kicker runs happened, the defense runs, the TE runs, AND WERE THEY WORTH THE SELECTION AT THAT SPOT?......This is vital to me for the upcoming draft so I can accurately know when to pull the trigger or tell myself it's ok to wait.
This lets me analyze the past drafts in several ways.
1-I scan the individual columns of a particular drafter and try to spot trends of that particular owner similar to what Hugonel describes.(I go back 2 yrs if necessary). I make sure to study the drafters that are drafting next to me THIS YR
2-I look at the 1st, 2nd, 3rd round similar to what Drinen does (how many QBs, WR are usually selected in each round or by the end of the 3rd round?)
3-I take a black sharpie pen and draw a horizontal line half way thru the draft. I figure that by the half way point, most teams have selected their skill starters and are now concentrating on depth. Who grabs the most RBs? Who drafts only 1 QB? If it is a keeper league, what selections from the bottom half of the draft ended up being keepers for this upcoming year and why was that? (trade, injury)
4-I grab several hi-liters. I hi-lite all the Kickers in one color, all the defenses in another color, and if it is a TE league them in another color. By doing this, I can visually see the distribution of when the Kicker runs happened, the defense runs, the TE runs, AND WERE THEY WORTH THE SELECTION AT THAT SPOT?......This is vital to me for the upcoming draft so I can accurately know when to pull the trigger or tell myself it's ok to wait.
crimsonrebel
Footballguy
I always look at when the run on Qb's happens. For some odd reason its always early in my league because its a 16 team league. No one seems to want that marginal qb as a starter, and there does usually seem to be a tier drop after qb 12-14. I still tend to go rb rb wr, or rb wr rb, even though the QB run is almost always in round three. Knowing the owners near you in a draft order is helpful as well. My brother and i hate to draft next to each other as we always seem to take the guy the other was going to draft with the next pick.
Rounders
Footballguy
Tubalcane
Footballguy
Use a spread sheet for this data; it helps a lot. My notes on my current Home League go back 5 years. I’ve found that you really only need drafts to about 4 years. I use it mainly to get familiar with other peoples draft tendencies. I keep copious notes of what people say before the draft, during, after, and also during the long off season. I use this mainly for my planning.
My main advice is to try to know where everybody likes to get their 4th RB, 2nd QB, 2WR, and 1st TE.
On draft day I will take along a simplified version for the draft.
Here is a sample of one player from my home league last year:
Tobacco Leafs:
Gut drafter. Will take high risks for high reward. Tends to get locked in on a “favorite”, and drafts them too high. Stockpiles RBs very early. Makes illogical choices in late rounds. Extreme bull $#!^er; everyword out of his mouth on or before draft day is a lie. He never drafts what he says he is going too. Talks smack if you made a good pick. Swears if you draft his next target. Likes to trade draft slots on draft day. Talks a whole lot.
QB – typically drafts late (9, 10). Drafts QB’s back to back if drafted later than 8th round. Will grab one in the 5th or 6th if the value is right. Ignores big name high price QBs
1st QB past four years by round: 9, 5, 8, 9. (Range - 5-9)
2nd QB past four years by round: 10, 9, 9, 10 (Range - 9-11)
RB – Usually drafts 3 RBs consecutively. Overreaches for prominent rookies and sleepers. Will not draft a Denver RB. Reliably comes out of round 6 with 4 RBs. Talked up Mike Bell [will not draft him].
3rd RB past four years by round: 3,4,3,3 (Range - 3-5)
4th RB past four years by round: 5,6,5,6 (Range - 5-6)
WR – Grabs 1st WR in 3rd or 4th. Will not reach for a WR for any reason. Agressively drafts sleeper WRs and shys away from big name WR’s after selecting 1st WR. Hates Randy Moss will not draft.
1st WR past four years by round: 4,3,4,4. (Range 3-4)
2nd WR past four years by round: 5,6,7,5 (Range 5-8)
TE – Spotty at best. Will reach early for top tier, or wait till round 10 at best.
1st TE past four years by round: 8, 3, 11, 11 (Range 3-11)
K - Drafts 2 Ks at end of draft every year.
Def – Drafts for best value. Partial to Carolina D.
1st Def past four years by round:13, 11, 14, 11 (Range 10-14)
My main advice is to try to know where everybody likes to get their 4th RB, 2nd QB, 2WR, and 1st TE.
On draft day I will take along a simplified version for the draft.
Here is a sample of one player from my home league last year:
Tobacco Leafs:
Gut drafter. Will take high risks for high reward. Tends to get locked in on a “favorite”, and drafts them too high. Stockpiles RBs very early. Makes illogical choices in late rounds. Extreme bull $#!^er; everyword out of his mouth on or before draft day is a lie. He never drafts what he says he is going too. Talks smack if you made a good pick. Swears if you draft his next target. Likes to trade draft slots on draft day. Talks a whole lot.
QB – typically drafts late (9, 10). Drafts QB’s back to back if drafted later than 8th round. Will grab one in the 5th or 6th if the value is right. Ignores big name high price QBs
1st QB past four years by round: 9, 5, 8, 9. (Range - 5-9)
2nd QB past four years by round: 10, 9, 9, 10 (Range - 9-11)
RB – Usually drafts 3 RBs consecutively. Overreaches for prominent rookies and sleepers. Will not draft a Denver RB. Reliably comes out of round 6 with 4 RBs. Talked up Mike Bell [will not draft him].
3rd RB past four years by round: 3,4,3,3 (Range - 3-5)
4th RB past four years by round: 5,6,5,6 (Range - 5-6)
WR – Grabs 1st WR in 3rd or 4th. Will not reach for a WR for any reason. Agressively drafts sleeper WRs and shys away from big name WR’s after selecting 1st WR. Hates Randy Moss will not draft.
1st WR past four years by round: 4,3,4,4. (Range 3-4)
2nd WR past four years by round: 5,6,7,5 (Range 5-8)
TE – Spotty at best. Will reach early for top tier, or wait till round 10 at best.
1st TE past four years by round: 8, 3, 11, 11 (Range 3-11)
K - Drafts 2 Ks at end of draft every year.
Def – Drafts for best value. Partial to Carolina D.
1st Def past four years by round:13, 11, 14, 11 (Range 10-14)
pantherclub
Footballguy
I think taking mental notes of the people you are playing is good, but at the end of the day you need to have a strategy and stick by it 100%. I study past drafts and kindof know that folks in my league mainly go rb-rb-wr so I go RB-WR-WR because i know 2 things, that the run on WR's will go crazy in the 3rd and I can still get a good starter RB in the 4rth due to the run on WR. So i will get probably the #1 or #2 WR based on the other owners strategy of getting 2 good solid starting rb's in rounds 1 and 2. (A stupid strategy imo) My strategy for my particular league and it has worked the past 2 years.
I will now open the floor for questions
I will now open the floor for questions
Look at the other players in your league and try to see when they take QBs, RBs, TEs, whatever and try to use it to your advantage.
in one of my leagues, other than gates, the TEs don't start going until the 7th or 8th round.
some players typically make every pick a risky pick for the upside, but they don't all pan out.
there will one team in my league that will take bush, henry, moss, colston, kitna, and v davis. yeah, they COULD all be great, but there are alot of ifs
one guy only takes proven veterans orplayers from high scoring offenses like indy or bengals or rams. jackson, wayne, palmer, driver.
other draft exactly like the magazines.
others always draft rookies they loved in college, or always take players from the same team.
know who picks around you and what they have done in the past so you know if you will get manning or not.
others draft 4 freakin rbs in the first 4 rounds.
if you are the 10th pick, and it is the 3rd round you need to know what the players behind you are gonna take or trend to take.
who know gates could fall to you, and the 11th and 12 player may never take a TE early so you know you can wait and take him in the 4th. or you could know that player 11loves him and he will never make it back to you.
same goes for every round.
once youknow your draft spot and scoring, you need to work that into how your league will work and who picks around you.
have a plan and a backup plan.
like if i pickin the 2nd spot i will take Jackson, then wayne, then palmer. the top RB available in the 4 and 5th and 6th.
or what ever.
or if i pick the 12th, i am taking henry, james, portisas my first pick then in the 2.1 james or portis, then at 3.12
roy williams or ?? thenat 4.1 bulger brady...... whatever.
League 1.
really knowledgable owners. 12 teams. - will follow a lot of mock at antsports or ranking from FBG.
League 2 12 team-
bunch of know nothings only one or two years under their belt. 5 qbs taken last year by end of round 1
rbs were still on the board in the 7th round that i wanted, but had hit my roster limit for rbs.
league 3 10 team league
crazy scoring. 10 yard reception td is worth 18 points, yet 3 1 yard rushing tds by rudy johnson is worth 18 points total.
need big play guys and players that have two functions (bush, vick...)
League 4. 8 teams
start 3 wrs - get 1 rb then go WR WR Gates because it is a td only league and the double digit scoring wrs are gone fast.
guys liek M barber, or c dillon can be had later.
lots to think about, but each league has tendancies as do each player. the best bet is to plan for the tendancies and know when is too late to expect a player to be there or when is too early to take him.
in one of my leagues, other than gates, the TEs don't start going until the 7th or 8th round.
some players typically make every pick a risky pick for the upside, but they don't all pan out.
there will one team in my league that will take bush, henry, moss, colston, kitna, and v davis. yeah, they COULD all be great, but there are alot of ifs
one guy only takes proven veterans orplayers from high scoring offenses like indy or bengals or rams. jackson, wayne, palmer, driver.
other draft exactly like the magazines.
others always draft rookies they loved in college, or always take players from the same team.
know who picks around you and what they have done in the past so you know if you will get manning or not.
others draft 4 freakin rbs in the first 4 rounds.
if you are the 10th pick, and it is the 3rd round you need to know what the players behind you are gonna take or trend to take.
who know gates could fall to you, and the 11th and 12 player may never take a TE early so you know you can wait and take him in the 4th. or you could know that player 11loves him and he will never make it back to you.
same goes for every round.
once youknow your draft spot and scoring, you need to work that into how your league will work and who picks around you.
have a plan and a backup plan.
like if i pickin the 2nd spot i will take Jackson, then wayne, then palmer. the top RB available in the 4 and 5th and 6th.
or what ever.
or if i pick the 12th, i am taking henry, james, portisas my first pick then in the 2.1 james or portis, then at 3.12
roy williams or ?? thenat 4.1 bulger brady...... whatever.
League 1.
really knowledgable owners. 12 teams. - will follow a lot of mock at antsports or ranking from FBG.
League 2 12 team-
bunch of know nothings only one or two years under their belt. 5 qbs taken last year by end of round 1
rbs were still on the board in the 7th round that i wanted, but had hit my roster limit for rbs.
league 3 10 team league
crazy scoring. 10 yard reception td is worth 18 points, yet 3 1 yard rushing tds by rudy johnson is worth 18 points total.
need big play guys and players that have two functions (bush, vick...)
League 4. 8 teams
start 3 wrs - get 1 rb then go WR WR Gates because it is a td only league and the double digit scoring wrs are gone fast.
guys liek M barber, or c dillon can be had later.
lots to think about, but each league has tendancies as do each player. the best bet is to plan for the tendancies and know when is too late to expect a player to be there or when is too early to take him.
