Draft Pick Surrendering (1 Viewer)

[kylechoffman]

Two of my leagues (both .5 ppr) are converting from a standard keep 2 per season rule to draft pick surrendering rule.  I need input on who to keep (all of 2016 draft rounds or FA in parentheses) but want to clarify the rules first.

New Keeper Rules

Both leagues have the same rules, which are that all teams must keep two players each season and may keep said players for as long as they choose.  Teams forfeit the draft pick of the round where the player was drafted the previous season if drafted.  Teams forfeit the last round of the draft if a player was added in Free Agency or last two rounds if two free agents are kept.  Players kept last year will count towards 1st rounders or 1st and 2nd if both are kept this season.  Players kept year over year will count towards the previous year's draft pick minus 1 round.  So an example team would be a team with L bell(K-2016), D Johnson (K-2016), M Ryan (FA) and J Howard (FA). If Bell or Johnson are kept, they would cost a 1st this year and every year after. If both are kept, they would cost 1st and 2nd this year and 1st every year after.  If Ryan or Howard are kept, they cost 16th round this year, 15 next year and so on.  

League 1 Roster (10 teams)

A Brown (1), L Miller (2), Cooper (3), Hilton (4), Brady (6), Meredith (FA), D Henry (FA), J Howard (FA)

League 2 Roster (12 teams)

Freeman (1), Gronk (2), Jordy (3) , M Ryan (13), D Lewis (15), Meredith (FA), Eli (FA), T Coleman (13)

In league 1, I am leaning Brown and Howard. I am trying to move some of the other guys to other teams for a draft pick upgrade.  Brady is attractive as a 6th rounder but with a 10 team league and the depth this year, it doesnt make sense for me to keep him. In league 2, I am leaning towards keeping Ryan because his ADP is 5th round currently.  T Coleman is also at ADP of 5th round and Jordy is going late 1st/early 2nd. Leave yours and I will answer.

 

[Gally]

For Team #1 Jordan Howard is a for sure keeper.  You can't pass up his value in the last round.  .  I agree Brady shouldn't be kept in a 10 team league as you can get a good QB easily.  Miller isn't great value and I am not high on him regardless.  Meredith and Henry are just guys at this point so no real reason to keep.  So based on that I think it boils down to just three choices..  A.Brown, Cooper or Hilton

Brown is no value but keeping him may depend on what your draft position is.  If you have the 1st pick or a pick where you can be sure to draft him then I would keep one of the other two and then just draft Brown.  If that isn't the case your choice becomes a bitter more difficult and may boil down to who will be available in the first round.  If there isn't going to be 1st round talent available because they are all being kept then keeping Brown is the way to go.  However, if you will have studs to choose from I would keep one of the other two.

Cooper/Hilton have similar value.  I can see going with Cooper but I am not as high on him as most.  That is the main reason I would go with Hilton over Cooper.  That and the extra round of savings.  I think that is the deciding factor.  Who do you like more?  I think they are very similar in value and performance.  Take the one you like best.

For Team #2 it comes down to Coleman & Jordy with Ryan being and easy keeper in the 13th. 

I think Coleman has future potential value with the contract situation of Freeman up in the air.  If Freeman goes elsewhere you could be getting a solid RB for quite awhile at a decent price.  Jordy is more of the play for this year as you won't be keeping him at the increased round penalty next year.  If you trust your drafting ability to get another value keeper then I go with Ryan and Jordy.  If you like the possible long term value of Coleman go that route.  For me I would go with Jordy and believe I can find another value keeper next year. 

 

[Interseptopus]

I am in a league like this but you can't keep 1st round picks... so in our league if you keep a guy for a 1st rounder you can't keep him the next year... so that being said I have some familiarity with this system and how it best works long term.

I pass up on keeping a lot of guys who are high draft picks for lower value picks. It seems to work for me with my success in this league. 
While yes, Brown poses some value being a top WR especially if you don't pick within the top 2-3. However, if you can land a top WR in round 1... is that drop really significant compared to the value you gain by keeping someone who would cost a much later pick? That's the question yuo have to answer; we cannot because we don't know who else is being kept and where you pick round 1. 

League 1: 
I would not entertain keeping Brady or Miller. I think your answer is clear: 

Brown and Howard vs 1st rounder/Cooper/Howard

Howard must be kept

Personally, I'd go Cooper/Howard and grab a first round talent if there's one available. If there's not a lot of first round talent available then maybe keep Brown and Howard. 

I think overall, you're better off keeping your first round pick and keeping Cooper/Howard. If you break it down to fp/g it may not be as significant as you might think by passing on Brown, especially considering you could land a good RB round 1 if he's not kept. Or maybe everyone above you keeps a player taken round 1 and you end up with the 1.01 pick anyways and can take Brown. 

League 2:
Jordy and Ryan are your best value keepers there. Ryan for sure hands down, then it's just a matter of do you like Coleman or Jordy better... I think getting a WR with a 3rd round value is huge

 

[Patches]

For team #1, Howard is the easy choice. I think you have to consider D. Henry (FA) as well. Here is my logic for Henry: 1) He outperform Murray as the year wore on last season, 2) Murray is near the end of the road, 3) I believe the Titans can't get out of Murray's contract at the end of this season with no cap hit, 4) If Murray is out of the picture, Henry has clear path to top 5 RB numbers for several seasons.

I would lean to Brown over Copper if you are considering WR, but it depends on where you pick in round #1 and starting line-up requirements.

For team #2, I think your reasoning of Ryan and Coleman is sound. No one else seems to represent value. Jordy over Ryan would make the most since to me idf you go a different route. 

 

[Interseptopus]

For team #1, Howard is the easy choice. I think you have to consider D. Henry (FA) as well. Here is my logic for Henry: 1) He outperform Murray as the year wore on last season, 2) Murray is near the end of the road, 3) I believe the Titans can't get out of Murray's contract at the end of this season with no cap hit, 4) If Murray is out of the picture, Henry has clear path to top 5 RB numbers for several seasons.

I would lean to Brown over Copper if you are considering WR, but it depends on where you pick in round #1 and starting line-up requirements.

For team #2, I think your reasoning of Ryan and Coleman is sound. No one else seems to represent value. Jordy over Ryan would make the most since to me idf you go a different route. 

I agree with Henry. As much as I can hate on him he's incredible value for a last round draft pick. Especially long term because if he costs a second to last draft pick after next season to keep, yuo have a top 5 potential RB for a next to last draft pick... and can keep him forever for value.

I change my assessment and say keep Henry/Howard. In my league you can only keep a player 2 times for 3 total seasons on your roster. If that were the case I would not advocate for Henry (which is why I said Cooper). In this league Henry is incredible value and you basically have your RB1 and 2 locked up for the next decade for super cheap draft choices if both Howard and Henry perform to high enough levels to warrant you to continue to keep them. 

 

[Gally]

I agree with Henry. As much as I can hate on him he's incredible value for a last round draft pick. Especially long term because if he costs a second to last draft pick after next season to keep, yuo have a top 5 potential RB for a next to last draft pick... and can keep him forever for value.

I change my assessment and say keep Henry/Howard. In my league you can only keep a player 2 times for 3 total seasons on your roster. If that were the case I would not advocate for Henry (which is why I said Cooper). In this league Henry is incredible value and you basically have your RB1 and 2 locked up for the next decade for super cheap draft choices if both Howard and Henry perform to high enough levels to warrant you to continue to keep them. 

I understand the value you guys are referring to however there is a lot of time and changes that can occur before you ever see any of the rewards for taking the chance on Henry.  That to me is going after the two birds in the bush rather than keeping the bird you already have in your hand with Brown or Cooper. 

I agree the "what if" is very good but I would guess if you really believed in Henry you could still get him in the 11/12th round and still get long term value.  I don't think Henry is worth keeping at this point on the what if.

 

[Interseptopus]

I understand the value you guys are referring to however there is a lot of time and changes that can occur before you ever see any of the rewards for taking the chance on Henry.  That to me is going after the two birds in the bush rather than keeping the bird you already have in your hand with Brown or Cooper. 

I agree the "what if" is very good but I would guess if you really believed in Henry you could still get him in the 11/12th round and still get long term value.  I don't think Henry is worth keeping at this point on the what if.

I agree to some extent but I think Henry could provide some RB3/flex value even this season. Name one RB3/flex you can find in the last round of a 10 team draft. Now let's name a WR1 you can find in round 1. Is OBJ being kept? Julio? Evans? These are questions we don't know. 

IMO Julio/Howard/Henry > Brown/Howard for a keeper/dynasty league. Of course that changes if every WR1 is being kept. In that case then the chances are rather high that the OP could draft Brown round 1. The drop from Brown to a guy like Julio is not as steep as the drop from Henry to a guy you will get in the second to last round of a draft, is it not? That all depends if a top WR is available, I'm assuming there is someone. 

Let's pretend the following are kept for 1st round draft picks:
Zeke
Bell
D. Johnson
OBJ
Julio
Evans

That means that only 4 (FOUR!!) teams pick round 1. That means the OP has three other teams to complete with for: Antonio Brown, AJ Green, Jordy Nelson, Michael Thomas, TY Hilton, Dez

We don't know this because the OP hasn't told us where he would be drafting round 1 (I assume toward the middle based off of those keepers). However, I imagine at least half of the teams in this league are keeping a 1st round talent. If not, then that's even more for the OP to take and less of a drop from Brown. 

In the community dynasty rankings Henry was voted 3.12 (RB 9 not counting rookies). 

I'm a well documented skeptic of Henry, voicing a lot of concerns that you have as well, but you can't pass up the value that Henry brings. What if he does pan out? The OP is set as a perennial contender. If it doesn't, well then he's out Antonio Brown which is nothing to scoff at... but he would have his first round draft pick and would presumably have a 1st round talent at WR there. Yes, Brown is a stud and losing a stud hurts, but when everyone else is giving up their 1st or 2nd or 3rd round draft picks to keep thier best guys, the OP has at least 1 starter for a last round pick and another future starter for a pick earlier. Meanwhile he also has all of his high draft picks to load up on talent while everyone else just has to sit marking them off their draft boards. 

 

[Patches]

I understand the value you guys are referring to however there is a lot of time and changes that can occur before you ever see any of the rewards for taking the chance on Henry.  That to me is going after the two birds in the bush rather than keeping the bird you already have in your hand with Brown or Cooper. 

I agree the "what if" is very good but I would guess if you really believed in Henry you could still get him in the 11/12th round and still get long term value.  I don't think Henry is worth keeping at this point on the what if.

Keeping Henry is clearly a little more of a longer term play. I just wanted to make sure the alternative was out there and considered. The reason I like the alternative is I believe Henry will be the lead back at the start of next season, if not earlier. Depending on your scoring system, Henry was a top 20 RB during the final 3 weeks of last season. Point is, I agree with you there is a "what if" factor, but IMO is not a big "what if". All signs point to Henry being the lead back (sooner rather than later) in a RB friendly offense which drafted him high for a reason.

In making this decision, you also need to try to predict who you league mates will keep (to the best of your ability). If the winds are blowing in a manner where you think you can pick up quality WR talent in the first 1-3 rounds, then keeping Henry is more realistic. If WR will be at a premium, then Brown/Cooper are much more attractive.

Nothing wrong with keeping Brown or Cooper. Nice problems to have! 

 

[kylechoffman]

Thank you for all the input.

I pick 6th in League 1.  Team picking 1 may keep Tannehill as a FA, may trade me for one of my guys (hes a miller fan), may keep luck as a 5th rounder, or gurley as a first but doubt that.  team 2 may keep brees for a 6th, freeman for a first or blount for a 12th, team picking 3rd has no one so I anticipate I may trade him two of my guys for pick upgrades but has jordy in the 1st as really the only good value, team 4 has mike evans in the 2nd, and Matt ryan, ty montgomery, d adams all as FA pickups and finally team 5 has Dak as a FA (hes a cowboy fan) and maybe rivers in the 8th but he may just keep mccoy (2) or murray(3).  

The four teams behind me will probably keep  team 7 Elliott (3) and gordon (6), team 8 ajayi (FA) and rodger (4) or Julio or AJ Green for a (1), team 9 - OBJ (1) and Cam (4) and team 10 Bell and D johnson (1 and 2).  

So I foresee all but 1 team behind me not having a first rounder and maybe 1 team in front of me so use that to value A Brown. I will get the other league draft spot and potential keepers this evening.

 

[kylechoffman]

I forgot M Bryant and Lockett in League 2 so my roster options are:

• Freeman (1), Gronk (2), Jordy (3) , M Ryan (13), D Lewis (15), Meredith (FA), Eli (FA), T Coleman (13), T Lockett (FA), M Bryant (FA).
  

I draft 6 of 12.  Here is my forecast for who will kept in front of me and behind me

1. Buffalo Bills - J Howard (FA), Brees (4), B Cooks (3)
   
2. Whale Tale  - Winston (10), K Allen (FA), D Adams (FA), L Miller (1)
   
3. Smooth Kimmy - Landry (5), Evans (1), Cousins (FA), Dixon (FA)
   
4. Thai - Ajayi (FA), Julio (1), Carr (6)
   
5. House Money - Dez (1), L Bell (3), Luck (4)
   
6. Me - Leaning Ryan, Jordy and Coleman
   
7. Ezekiel Elliott  - Hopkins (1),  Dak (15), M Thomas (14)
   
8. CA Pats West - Pryor (FA), Brady (1),  Fitz (6), Ben (5)
   
9. Jomamma - Gurley (1), Cam (1), Elliott (3), 
   
10. Cameltoe - A Brown (3), TY Hilton (5), Jeffrey (FA), 
    
11. Philly - Montgomery (FA), OBJ (1), Cooper (1), AJ Green (3), Gordon (5)
    
12. Rodger that Philly - Rodgers (1) A robinson (1), Mccoy (3), D murray (6), Blount (9), 
    

Possibly four 1st rounders in front of me and 5 behind me.  I am tempted to let freeman walk as I may get him back. 

 

[Hankmoody]

Thank you for all the input.

I pick 6th in League 1.  Team picking 1 may keep Tannehill as a FA, may trade me for one of my guys (hes a miller fan), may keep luck as a 5th rounder, or gurley as a first but doubt that.  team 2 may keep brees for a 6th, freeman for a first or blount for a 12th, team picking 3rd has no one so I anticipate I may trade him two of my guys for pick upgrades but has jordy in the 1st as really the only good value, team 4 has mike evans in the 2nd, and Matt ryan, ty montgomery, d adams all as FA pickups and finally team 5 has Dak as a FA (hes a cowboy fan) and maybe rivers in the 8th but he may just keep mccoy (2) or murray(3).  

The four teams behind me will probably keep  team 7 Elliott (3) and gordon (6), team 8 ajayi (FA) and rodger (4) or Julio or AJ Green for a (1), team 9 - OBJ (1) and Cam (4) and team 10 Bell and D johnson (1 and 2).  

So I foresee all but 1 team behind me not having a first rounder and maybe 1 team in front of me so use that to value A Brown. I will get the other league draft spot and potential keepers this evening.

Can you trade draft picks?   If so offer him Henry to keep and swap him 1sts.  He still gets a 1st, you keep Cooper and Howard and draft AB 1.01. 

 

[kylechoffman]

Can you trade draft picks?   If so offer him Henry to keep and swap him 1sts.  He still gets a 1st, you keep Cooper and Howard and draft AB 1.01. 

Good thought there.  I may be able to offer Hilton/ Miller/ Henry and the pick swap to hold onto cooper and howard and draft A Brown.  A brown will be the best player available if I dont keep him in round 1 and there is no chance I get him back at the 6th spot.