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Draft Sharks Fantasy Football - 3 Round Mock Draft (1 Viewer)

On The Rocks

Footballguy
From the "Jumbotron" Email: (for those interested)

============Draft SharksJUMbotronMarch 15, 2007============By John U. Miller IV, Managing EditorLet's get right to my 3-round fantasy mock. These aren't directly predicated to any Draft Sharks rankings or projections, just my early take on how a RB-hogging experts draft *might* go right now:1.1: RB L.Tomlinson (SD): A 100% certainty nationwide. This doesn't happen often.1.2: RB Steven Jackson (StL): Became the 5th RB to post 150 rush/100 rec in same game.1.3: RB Larry Johnson (KC): Yes, 844 touches (w/ playoffs) in 2 years concerns us...1.4: RB Frank Gore (SF): It sucks that Norv left but 1,695 yards? This guy's a star.1.5: RB Rudi Johnson (Cin): Warrior averages #8 FF RB rank since '04. He's earned this.1.6: RB Joseph Addai (Ind): Rhodes left so it's time to saddle up. Most upside in rd #1.1.7: QB Peyton Manning (Ind): There's always someone who bites early. Let 'em do it.1.8: RB Shaun Alexander (Sea): Hard to feel elated about this pick but hey, C'est La Vie.1.9: RB Willie Parker (Pitt): FWP quietly had a hefty 31 carries inside the 10. 1.10: RB Brian Westbrook (Phi): BW had seven 100-yd games (6 rush, 1 rec) in '07.1.11: RB Edgerrin James (Arz): The red Kool-Aid always flows, make no mistake. 1.12: RB Reggie Bush (NO): You're really getting a stud WR (88 catches) who runs TDs. 2.1: RB Laurence Maroney (NE): Lo-Mo begins the post-Dillon era.2.2: RB Willis McGahee (Bal): Others will be hesitant to take him here. I wouldn't be.2.3: RB Clinton Portis (Was): Tricky pick but assume Ladell Betts will be traded.2.4: RB Chester Taylor (Min): Paired up with FWP, I'm set with two 300-carry backs. 2.5: QB Drew Brees (NO): Lose Peyton's 3 fluky TD runs and Brees tied him for #1 QB.2.6: RB Cedric Benson (Chi): He'll start going even earlier when it sinks in that TJ left. 2.7: WR Torry Holt (StL): Paired up with Addai at 1.6 for a mix of stability and upside. 2.8: RB D. McAllister (NO): Start a WR run? Nope, I'll take the 12th best RB last year.2.9: WR Chad Johnson (Cin): Some go RB/RB (Gore/?) in the 4 spot. Not me.2.10: WR Marvin Harrison (Ind): The 2006 #1 WR will be 35 at kickoff. Queasy pick.2.11: WR Steve Smith (Car): Still managed #8 WR rank despite two moody hammies.2.12: QB Carson Palmer (Cin): Right behind Peyton for most QB points since '05.3.1: WR Reggie Wayne (Ind): Risky call over Colston but Team #1 is stacked.3.2: RB Travis Henry (Den): Denver's running game still lures us in like a Starbucks.3.3: RB Ronnie Brown (Mia): This could be a huge steal, maybe a title-winning pick.3.4: WR Marques Colston (NO): Team #4 has Gore/Chad/Colston, smartly waits on QB.3.5: WR Terrell Owens (Dal): Team #5 has Rudi/Deuce/Owens, oozes boom-or-bust.3.6: RB Cadillac Williams (TB): All the way down to 3.6? For real? I couldn't pass.3.7: RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax): He scored 16 TDs last year but pick 3.7 feels right.3.8: RB Thomas Jones (NYJ): Here's a potential value-gem. But will Lil' Leon mooch?3.9: RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG): Opinions vary but we all agree he'll get touchdowns.3.10: RB Ahman Green (Hou):15th-ranked in'06, 24th RB taken? Sssh. 2007 DS Sleeper.3.11: WR Anquan Boldin (Arz): Tomato, tomatoe... Yes I'd take him over Fitzgerald. 3.12: WR TJ Houshmandzadeh (Cin): His name is always on winning fantasy rosters.
 
Mine His Pos Player

1.1 1.1: RB L.Tomlinson (SD)

1.2 1.2: RB Steven Jackson (StL)

1.3 1.3: RB Larry Johnson (KC)

1.4 1.5: RB Rudi Johnson (Cin)

1.5 1.6: RB Joseph Addai (Ind)

1.6 2.1: RB Laurence Maroney (NE)

1.7 2.3: RB Clinton Portis (Was)

1.8 1.8: RB Shaun Alexander (Sea)

1.9 3.2: RB Travis Henry (Den)

1.10 1.4: RB Frank Gore (SF)

1.11 2.4: RB Chester Taylor (Min)

1.12 3.5: WR Terrell Owens (Dal)

2.1 2.9: WR Chad Johnson (Cin)

2.2 2.7: WR Torry Holt (StL)

2.3 2.2: RB Willis McGahee (Bal)

2.4 1.9: RB Willie Parker (Pitt)

2.5 1.10: RB Brian Westbrook (Phi)

2.6 2.6: RB Cedric Benson (Chi)

2.7 3.8: RB Thomas Jones (NYJ)

2.8 2.11: WR Steve Smith (Car)

2.9 2.10: WR Marvin Harrison (Ind)

2.10 3.1: WR Reggie Wayne (Ind)

2.11 3.11: WR Anquan Boldin (Arz)

2.12 (nl): WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arz)

3.1 1.7: QB Peyton Manning (Ind)

3.2 3.7: RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax)

3.3 3.3: RB Ronnie Brown (Mia)

3.4 3.6: RB Cadillac Williams (TB)

3.5 1.12: RB Reggie Bush (NO)

3.6 1.11: RB Edgerrin James (Arz)

3.7 2.8: RB D. McAllister (NO)

3.8 3.4: WR Marques Colston (NO)

3.9 3.9: RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG)

3.10 3.10: RB Ahman Green (Hou)

3.11 3.12: WR TJ Houshmandzadeh (Cin)

3.12 2.12: QB Carson Palmer (Cin)

This seems a little better to me.

 
if drafts are really going to look like this, I am taking WRs early...
Interesting. How do you think they should go? Is it that you think RB is deep, or that you think the wrong RBs are going early? I think WR1s are deeper than usual this year - even more so than last year at this point.
 
I'm really suprised to see some of these guys so low:

Terrell Owens 3.5

Maurice Jones-Drew 3.7

Fitzgerald Assumed 4th round

I mean, I guess I could see T.O. dropping to the 3rd, but MJD hasn't gotten out of the 2nd in any mock-up I've seen and Fitz in the 4th is just insanity. He was the consnesus #2 WR in ADP from the WSL's.

I don't even like T.O. that much, but he's finished in the T10 nearly every year (other than his blow-up) in total points and his Pts/G haven't dropped below 15 in the last 5 years. If I can get LT or Steven Jackson + T.O. with another pick right after, I'm taking that all day.

 
I'm really suprised to see some of these guys so low:

Terrell Owens 3.5

Maurice Jones-Drew 3.7

Fitzgerald Assumed 4th round

I mean, I guess I could see T.O. dropping to the 3rd, but MJD hasn't gotten out of the 2nd in any mock-up I've seen and Fitz in the 4th is just insanity. He was the consnesus #2 WR in ADP from the WSL's.

I don't even like T.O. that much, but he's finished in the T10 nearly every year (other than his blow-up) in total points and his Pts/G haven't dropped below 15 in the last 5 years. If I can get LT or Steven Jackson + T.O. with another pick right after, I'm taking that all day.
I agree, which is why I put Owens and Fitzgerald in my 8 receivers in the first two rounds. I also had a quarterback at 3.1, and the rest were running backs. It's hard to say where Jones-Drew will or should get drafted; so much of his production was from TDs and from a 5.7 ypa, and with the team resigning Fred Taylor, I have a hard time deciding if I think he's really that talented. Watching him run, he looked phenomenal, but his numbers are in some pretty rarified air.

I have a feeling that we won't see much consensus on the bottom half of the first round, or even the first few picks after Tomlinson. For example, I'm more confident in Addai than Gore with the losses of Rhodes and Norv Turner, respectively, but I know that others think Gore should go as high as #3.

 
Mine His Pos Player1.1 1.1: RB L.Tomlinson (SD)1.2 1.2: RB Steven Jackson (StL)1.3 1.3: RB Larry Johnson (KC)1.4 1.5: RB Rudi Johnson (Cin)1.5 1.6: RB Joseph Addai (Ind)1.6 2.1: RB Laurence Maroney (NE)1.7 2.3: RB Clinton Portis (Was)1.8 1.8: RB Shaun Alexander (Sea)1.9 3.2: RB Travis Henry (Den)1.10 1.4: RB Frank Gore (SF)1.11 2.4: RB Chester Taylor (Min) 1.12 3.5: WR Terrell Owens (Dal)2.1 2.9: WR Chad Johnson (Cin)2.2 2.7: WR Torry Holt (StL) 2.3 2.2: RB Willis McGahee (Bal)2.4 1.9: RB Willie Parker (Pitt)2.5 1.10: RB Brian Westbrook (Phi)2.6 2.6: RB Cedric Benson (Chi)2.7 3.8: RB Thomas Jones (NYJ)2.8 2.11: WR Steve Smith (Car)2.9 2.10: WR Marvin Harrison (Ind)2.10 3.1: WR Reggie Wayne (Ind)2.11 3.11: WR Anquan Boldin (Arz)2.12 (nl): WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arz)3.1 1.7: QB Peyton Manning (Ind)3.2 3.7: RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax)3.3 3.3: RB Ronnie Brown (Mia)3.4 3.6: RB Cadillac Williams (TB)3.5 1.12: RB Reggie Bush (NO) 3.6 1.11: RB Edgerrin James (Arz)3.7 2.8: RB D. McAllister (NO)3.8 3.4: WR Marques Colston (NO)3.9 3.9: RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG)3.10 3.10: RB Ahman Green (Hou)3.11 3.12: WR TJ Houshmandzadeh (Cin)3.12 2.12: QB Carson Palmer (Cin)This seems a little better to me.
Wow some of your picks seem off to me. Gore at 1:10 and Henry at 1:9. I want you in my draft. In my PPR league Gore was the number 3 back last year(Turner is gone but does that mean Gore has less talent than some of those drafted ahead of him or is the offense that much worse without Turner). I want a better sure thing than Henry. Putting Addai and Maroney(Hope you are right as I have both in different Dynasty leagues) before Gore??? Betts is not gone so where does that put Portis(not 1:7). Rudi and SA are not bad but in a PPR I take Gore before them. Parker & Westbrook seem low and C Taylor before them? Wow!!!! TO is a head case. I want a surer thing. Bush, did you see what he did the 2nd half of the year? Who knows you may end up being right on but I want the %'s for success higher than what your draft order indicates.
 
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Mine His Pos Player1.1 1.1: RB L.Tomlinson (SD)1.2 1.2: RB Steven Jackson (StL)1.3 1.3: RB Larry Johnson (KC)1.4 1.5: RB Rudi Johnson (Cin)1.5 1.6: RB Joseph Addai (Ind)1.6 2.1: RB Laurence Maroney (NE)1.7 2.3: RB Clinton Portis (Was)1.8 1.8: RB Shaun Alexander (Sea)1.9 3.2: RB Travis Henry (Den)1.10 1.4: RB Frank Gore (SF)1.11 2.4: RB Chester Taylor (Min) 1.12 3.5: WR Terrell Owens (Dal)2.1 2.9: WR Chad Johnson (Cin)2.2 2.7: WR Torry Holt (StL) 2.3 2.2: RB Willis McGahee (Bal)2.4 1.9: RB Willie Parker (Pitt)2.5 1.10: RB Brian Westbrook (Phi)2.6 2.6: RB Cedric Benson (Chi)2.7 3.8: RB Thomas Jones (NYJ)2.8 2.11: WR Steve Smith (Car)2.9 2.10: WR Marvin Harrison (Ind)2.10 3.1: WR Reggie Wayne (Ind)2.11 3.11: WR Anquan Boldin (Arz)2.12 (nl): WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arz)3.1 1.7: QB Peyton Manning (Ind)3.2 3.7: RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax)3.3 3.3: RB Ronnie Brown (Mia)3.4 3.6: RB Cadillac Williams (TB)3.5 1.12: RB Reggie Bush (NO) 3.6 1.11: RB Edgerrin James (Arz)3.7 2.8: RB D. McAllister (NO)3.8 3.4: WR Marques Colston (NO)3.9 3.9: RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG)3.10 3.10: RB Ahman Green (Hou)3.11 3.12: WR TJ Houshmandzadeh (Cin)3.12 2.12: QB Carson Palmer (Cin)This seems a little better to me.
Wow some of your picks seem off to me. Gore at 1:10 and Henry at 1:9. I want you in my draft. In my PPR league Gore was the number 3 back last year(Turner is gone but does that mean Gore has less talent than some of those drafted ahead of him or is the offense that much worse without Turner). I want a better sure thing than Henry. Putting Addai and Maroney(Hope you are right as I have both in different Dynasty leagues) before Gore??? Betts is not gone so where does that put Portis(not 1:7). Rudi and SA are not bad but in a PPR I take Gore before them. Parker & Westbrook seem low and C Taylor before them? Wow!!!! TO is a head case. I want a surer thing. Bush, did you see what he did the 2nd half of the year? Who knows you may end up being right on but I want the %'s for success higher than what your draft order indicates.
I'm not assuming PPR. Gore and Parker drop hard in my opinion because of the losses of Norv and Cowher, respectively. Both of them had coaches who are well known for their running offenses, and both are gone. I'm not convinced that either is that talented - Gore certainly looked good in a play action system with lots of upfield blocking, but San Francisco is changing their offense and their receivers. Henry goes way up because he is far and away the best running back currently on the Broncos roster. He would drop with the addition of a first day running back or a position battle in camp, but at this point (and with that contract) it looks like Shanahan wants him to be the man. Denver's running game is not what it once was, but they will have more attempts than last year when they had two scrubs at the position. About half of the top ten running backs turn over each year. Addai and Maroney are talented young backs on top offenses who each looked good last year and each should be the feature back this year. I like them even more in dynasty. Reggie Bush looked great running in the second half. But Deuce was great, too. They clearly like the two back offense and it clearly made New Orleans tough to defend. It isn't broke, and I don't think they're going to try to fix it. So I think both of them have a lower ceiling than the backs I put ahead of them. In fact I would be shocked if both earned back their draft position this year (although one of them probably will, or will at least come close). Chester Taylor is a feature back who runs and catches. Minny was not good on offense last year and he was still good. That offense is on the way up, as opposed to San Francisco and Pittsburgh. Westbrook is great when healthy, but he was forced to do more last year with Stallworth and McNabb each missing time while he was healthy. Last year was a good year; I don't see any reason to predict it again. Jones had to choose between Parcells and Owens. He chose Owens. There's no way a first year head coach benches Owens. Owens has no reason to miss time - the only time he's missed time due to being a "headcase" is when Reid benched him, and during a contract dispute. None of those factors are present this year. And he should be healthy, have a better grasp of the offense than last year, and have the same QB all year. All of those are reasons to expect improvement on what was already a great year.
 
if drafts are really going to look like this, I am taking WRs early...
Interesting. How do you think they should go? Is it that you think RB is deep, or that you think the wrong RBs are going early? I think WR1s are deeper than usual this year - even more so than last year at this point.
Well, since you will probably "steal" my thinking anyway :mellow:
2.6 2.6: RB Cedric Benson (Chi)2.7 3.8: RB Thomas Jones (NYJ)2.8 2.11: WR Steve Smith (Car)2.9 2.10: WR Marvin Harrison (Ind)2.10 3.1: WR Reggie Wayne (Ind)2.11 3.11: WR Anquan Boldin (Arz)2.12 (nl): WR Larry Fitzgerald (Arz)3.1 1.7: QB Peyton Manning (Ind)3.2 3.7: RB Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax)3.3 3.3: RB Ronnie Brown (Mia)3.4 3.6: RB Cadillac Williams (TB)3.5 1.12: RB Reggie Bush (NO) 3.6 1.11: RB Edgerrin James (Arz)3.7 2.8: RB D. McAllister (NO)3.8 3.4: WR Marques Colston (NO)3.9 3.9: RB Brandon Jacobs (NYG)3.10 3.10: RB Ahman Green (Hou)
If I have a top 5 pick and see Ronnie Brown et al are mocking in the third round...there is no way I am passing on a WR at 2. If I have a low pick in round 1 then I am not as sure. Still, that is a whole lot of Quality down in the third. Again this is early mocks, and I see thet the BFred rankings do not mirror the other guy...
 
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You know there is one person in every league in America that will not let Henry drop into the third round.

(And if you just said "Not in my league" then you're the one who will draft him in the last 1st/early 2nd)

 
Henry won't drop past 2.7 or 2.8. I aslo wonder where Marion Barber will go he's not listed on this mock, if JJ is traded MB could go crazy. Any one else know of other early Fantasy mocks done by an experts site?

 

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