Draft Strategy (1 Viewer)

[Black Heart Machine]

Last year, I decided to screw the typical RB/WR heavy approach to the draft. I picked 7th in a 12-team league (4pt pass TDs, .5ppr, 1QB, 2RBs, 2WRs, 1TE, 1 FLEX) and I decided instead to grab the best guy I could at each position. I felt I could afford to wait on RB because I was keeping Shonn Greene and once you got past the first 6 RBs - like this year - there was a big drop-off into a murky pool of unpredictable runners.

So I took Andre at 7, Rodgers (he fell and solidified my strategy) at 18 and then Clark at 31 (shoulda gone Gates, but you get the point). I was able to snag Forte in the 4th and Mike Wallace later. Unfortunately Greene didn't pan out (stupid LdT), but the strategy served me well and I won 6 of my first 7 games and was an early lock for the playoffs.

Heading into this year's draft, even with McFadden stashed as my keeper, I found myself going back to the typical RB/WR heavy strategy, and grabbing a QB late. But now I'm thinking maybe the Top 3 position player strategy is the way to go for the second year in a row. I'll grab consistency early then hope to hit homeruns with a few mid-round gems.

But I am actually pick 12 this year and with the big gap between picks, it's gonna be a bit tougher to pull this off. I'm definitely thinking about it, especially since I am keeping McFadden, who has gotta pan out better than Greene did last year.

At 12/13, here's what I'm figuring - Calvin(top 3 WR) or Nicks (def top 5) then Rodgers/Brady (top 3 QBs). At 36/37, my mocks show that I can likely snag someone like Welker or BMarsh (he'll find the endzone this year) or even Witten (top 3 TE) and then grab another RB like Blount or DeAngelo or Lynch or Ingram.

I don't hate that roster. I don't hate that roster at all. Brady, McFadden/DeAngelo, Nicks/Welker, Witten...solid.

The conventional wisdom in a 4pt passing league is to wait on QB, but I find QBs are a big headache - going QBBC is a recipe for bad luck (always make the wrong call!) - and it's very comforting to have a sure thing throwing for 250+, 2+ TDs every week. Consistency at every position is nice, and I think by targeting a Top 3-5 player (give or take, but it doesn't really work if you reach too hard) at each position, you can get it.

What do you think?

 

[PinkydaPimp]

Draft where the value is. Dont pigeonhole your self into any particular strategy. Learn to go with the flow and grab the position where the value is. If that happens to be top player at each position, great. if it happens to be wr-wr-rb, go for it. Obviously if you only start 3 rbs, there isnt a need to grab 3 rb back to back, so use common sense. But the best thing you can do is to let the draft come to you.

 

[SelenaCat]

This pretty much sounds like the "upside down" draft strategy suggested by Waldman. Grab your top QB/WR/TE players and then go shotgun approach with RB's.

 

[We Tigers]

The conventional wisdom in a 4pt passing league is to wait on QB, but I find QBs are a big headache - going QBBC is a recipe for bad luck (always make the wrong call!) - and it's very comforting to have a sure thing throwing for 250+, 2+ TDs every week.

I know these sorts of numbers get thrown around a lot when referencing the strength of a stud QB, but even most top QBs don't really do this. Only two players--Brees and Peyton--averaged those numbers last year, and obviously had several down weeks mixed in there, too. Brady did the equivalent with his 36 TDs. Only Brees, Peyton, and Favre did it in 2009.Just sayin'. A stud QB is very nice to have, but "250 and 2 TDs, minimum" seems to have become the "I expect my RB1 to be getting over 100 yards and a TD every week" of fantasy quarterbacks.

 

[Black Heart Machine]

PinkydaPimp: This ain't anyone's first rodeo - I'm well past the point of letting pre-draft strategy dictate my in-draft reactions. But it can be helpful to enter with a potential strategy in mind.

We Tigers: Point taken, but same goes. Obviously I don't expect the same output every week, but someone like Brady, on a pass-happy team that routinely scores 3+ TDs, is more likely to consistently deliver 17+ points per week than someone on a run-heavy, low-scoring team. It's the reason Rodgers, Brady and Brees are ranked in the top 5. I think we can all accept such basic truths before we start asking for/offering advice.

Thanks, SelenaCat. I'll check Waldman's theory out.

 

[PinkydaPimp]

PinkydaPimp: This ain't anyone's first rodeo - I'm well past the point of letting pre-draft strategy dictate my in-draft reactions. But it can be helpful to enter with a potential strategy in mind. We Tigers: Point taken, but same goes. Obviously I don't expect the same output every week, but someone like Brady, on a pass-happy team that routinely scores 3+ TDs, is more likely to consistently deliver 17+ points per week than someone on a run-heavy, low-scoring team. It's the reason Rodgers, Brady and Brees are ranked in the top 5. I think we can all accept such basic truths before we start asking for/offering advice. Thanks, SelenaCat. I'll check Waldman's theory out.

Having a strategy is fine. All i was pointing out is not to pigeonhole yourself into picking specific positions since you have no idea what type of value may fall to you and throw off your strategy entirely. Not saying you would do this, however many people do. I used to do this. Regarding the QB point. I agree it is nice to have a consistent qb who puts up those numbers. But you have to consider the cost of drafting that QB. It may be better for your total points scored to pass on brady and go with Tony Romo or Rburger and a better rb or wr. to me, it all depends on who is on the board at the time of my pick and where the value is.

 

[Black Heart Machine]

Last year I went in without any firm strategy but when Rodgers fell to me in the 2nd I decided to go with this one. I'm likely going the same way this year - targeting value but shifting on the fly if I see things falling into place. But I've been playing with most of these guys for more than 10 years and I know pretty well how things will go, give or take.

I would definitely prefer to have one of the top 6 QBs this year and I am pretty certain none of them will be left at 36/37.

Of course, if I go WR/QB in the first two rounds, even with McFadden I may need to go RB/RB at 36/37, and then my 2nd WR ends up being someone like Mike Thomas or Julio Jones. And if I go WR/WR, then unless Romo or Rivers falls, I likely end up with two mid-round RBs (which is fine, I see value there) but am scrambling for a starting QB and hoping Schaub or Ryan is there at 60/61. Which, if I snag one of them, might be the way to go. But I keep waffling!

No one said this was easy.Thanks for chiming in.