Draft to Trade (1 Viewer)

[karmarooster]

Nice article: http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2012/12cummings_drafttotrade.php

The basic idea is to target players who have a soft SOS in the first 4-5 games of the season, hope that a few bust out of the gate, and sell high. I think it's a compelling strategy, but relies on being able to accurately predict SOS for the upcoming season based on projections. Other ways to draft players to trade:

(1) target guys in unique situations where they appear to have less/no competition for the timeline, or related team injuries that suggest an increased workload

[*]Kevin Smith - Leshoure gets two games, right? and then he'll be playing his first NFL game of his career. Even assuming his talent is good, he's going to be phased in to a pass-first team. Smith has at least two games carrying the load. While his trade value will drop once Leshoure arrives, there is a chance that Smith seizes the job and relegates Leshoure to a clear back up while he learns the game and gets used to his knee.

[*]Nate Washington - has a couple of things going. Kenny Britt will miss time, Kendall Wright will be a rookie playing in his first few games as his career. Also there's a chance that Hasselback plays over Locker, but not sure how this affects Washington's value. I've also seen that the Titans have a tough schedule to open.

[*]Isaac Redman

[*]Percy Harvin - AP effect

[*]Antonio Brown - depending on the Mike Wallace situation

[*]The converse of this is of course avoiding players with early season suspensions or injuries. Britt. Leshoure. Dez? Most likely not but I'm sure this picture will become clearer over the next few weeks.

(2) target players who appear to be healthy and practicing well, despite 'injury prone' labels.

[*]McFadden

[*]Gates

[*]Andre Johnson - this actually requires that he gets healthy in camp.

[*]Mike Vick

[*]With most of these players, I would bet they start strong, but seem risky to finish 16 games

(3) Avoid players who may start slow due to injury recovery, or rookies who may see their roles grow as the season progresses. Or maybe not - you could get some balance later in the draft specifically by targeting these guys.

[*]AP

[*]Beanie Wells, Ryan Williams

[*]Ronnie Hillman, Doug Martin, David Wilson, etc. etc.

[*]The converse of this is to draft incumbents - McGahee, Bradshaw... Maybe even Michael Turner?

What do you think about combining some of these ideas with the goal of starting off with a nice W-L record, and aiming to pull a few trades after 3-5 games?

 

[Dismattle]

Im not so sure I agree with avoiding Doug Martin.

Id also be concerned with reading to much into Mike Wallace return (it may take a game to get into game-shape << intentional understatement) Brown has a few routes under his belt now, and it cant hurt to not have the top CB covering.

I still havnt drafted, or I would probably elaborate a bit more...

 

[Sweet Love]

I like the premise, but I think there is risk tied to it:

1) You take the player and can't move them for the value you were hoping for (or they just start slow and now you are stuck with them) and can't find a trading partner willing to give you equal value in return.

2) (And this happens to me a lot)...you find a diamond in the rough, they rip it up and now (1) people think it is a fluke or (2) you really don't want to part with them (even though you know you should) and you sink with the ship and read in a magazine the next June that "Player X's total numbers put him at WR20 for the year...unfortunately after week 5 he performed at WR53 levels".

Not a bad strategy, but there is absolutely some risk associated with it.

 

[karmarooster]

Yeah I hear you on that. How many people would have been willing to trade for Ryan Fitzpatrick after 3-4 games last year? Probably some, but still with a huge discount as compared to some nice stats. Same thing for Demarco Murray - he's a 2nd rounder now, but after 3-4 games he still probably didn't have great value in the middle of the year last year. Although maybe some after his 200 yard game...

ETA - maybe it's guys in the 1st category who will be harder to move for good value, but they can act as life-preservers until players in the 3rd category develop. The real "draft and trade" guys are probably limited to the 2nd category with greater name recognition.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

Yeah I hear you on that. How many people would have been willing to trade for Ryan Fitzpatrick after 3-4 games last year? Probably some, but still with a huge discount as compared to some nice stats. Same thing for Demarco Murray - he's a 2nd rounder now, but after 3-4 games he still probably didn't have great value in the middle of the year last year. Although maybe some after his 200 yard game...ETA - maybe it's guys in the 1st category who will be harder to move for good value, but they can act as life-preservers until players in the 3rd category develop. The real "draft and trade" guys are probably limited to the 2nd category with greater name recognition.

Agreed that name recognition is the key to moving these guys. Andre Johnson is clustered within the 2nd/3rd tier of WRs right now, but if people see three games like 8-112-1 right out of the gate, they'll likely get over the injury prone label and pay top end value for him. Not sure that anyone would be that excited about Nate Washington even if he got off to the same start.

 

[karmarooster]

Yeah I hear you on that. How many people would have been willing to trade for Ryan Fitzpatrick after 3-4 games last year? Probably some, but still with a huge discount as compared to some nice stats. Same thing for Demarco Murray - he's a 2nd rounder now, but after 3-4 games he still probably didn't have great value in the middle of the year last year. Although maybe some after his 200 yard game...ETA - maybe it's guys in the 1st category who will be harder to move for good value, but they can act as life-preservers until players in the 3rd category develop. The real "draft and trade" guys are probably limited to the 2nd category with greater name recognition.

Agreed that name recognition is the key to moving these guys. Andre Johnson is clustered within the 2nd/3rd tier of WRs right now, but if people see three games like 8-112-1 right out of the gate, they'll likely get over the injury prone label and pay top end value for him. Not sure that anyone would be that excited about Nate Washington even if he got off to the same start.

Not sure how anyone could be excited about Victor Cruz even after 3/110/2, 6/98, 8/161/1 (although was weeks 3-6 last year).