Draft week is here, so let's remember to keep a little perspective (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

Heard Mike & Mike this morning talking about the draft and they went back on the fly and looked at the 2009 Top 10, basically suggesting that you need at least three years before you can really judge a draft pick. After rattling off the 10 names:

1 Matthew Stafford Lions QB Georgia

2 Jason Smith Rams T Baylor

3 Tyson Jackson Chiefs DE Louisiana State

4 Aaron Curry Seahawks LB Wake Forest

5 Mark Sanchez Jets QB USC

6 Andre Smith Bengals T Alabama

7 Darrius Heyward-Bey Raiders WR Maryland

8 Eugene Monroe Jaguars T Virginia

9 B.J. Raji Packers DT Boston College

It illustrates a point I know we here in the Shark Pool know well enough, but the masses do not. Even the best and brightest who spend their entire careers figuring out this stuff whiff. A lot.

My point? Be excited if your team grabs a guy you coveted. And be optimistic. But don't overreact to the names that these teams picking high grab. Chances are the guys we perceive as the consensus "top 10 locks" are going to end up being marginal players when the dust settles in a few years.

Since every year is different, I didn't want to walk away from the 2009 conversation thinking that it was just a fluky type of year. So here are the 2006-2008 Top 10s for added measure.

2008

1 Jake Long Dolphins T Michigan

2 Chris Long Rams DE Virginia

3 Matt Ryan Falcons QB Boston College

4 Darren McFadden Raiders RB Arkansas

5 Glenn Dorsey Chiefs DT Louisiana State

6 Vernon Gholston Jets DE Ohio State

7 Sedrick Ellis Saints DT USC

8 Derrick Harvey Jaguars DE Florida

9 Keith Rivers Bengals LB USC

10 Jerod Mayo Patriots LB Tennessee

2007

1 JaMarcus Russell Raiders QB Louisiana State

2 Calvin Johnson Lions WR Georgia Tech

3 Joe Thomas Browns T Wisconsin

4 Gaines Adams Buccaneers DE Clemson

5 Levi Brown Cardinals T Penn State

6 LaRon Landry Redskins DB Louisiana State

7 Adrian Peterson Vikings RB Oklahoma

8 Jamaal Anderson Falcons DE Arkansas

9 Ted Ginn Jr. Dolphins WR Ohio State

10 Amobi Okoye Texans DT Louisville

2006

1 Mario Williams Texans DE North Carolina State

2 Reggie Bush Saints RB USC

3 Vince Young Titans QB Texas

4 D'Brickashaw Ferguson Jets T Virginia

5 A.J. Hawk Packers LB Ohio State

6 Vernon Davis 49ers TE Maryland

7 Michael Huff Raiders DB Texas

8 Donte Whitner Bills DB Ohio State

9 Ernie Sims Lions LB Florida State

10 Matt Leinart Cardinals QB USC

Are there some studs there? ABSOLUTELY. And there are some decent but not stellar players too. But there are also complete wash outs. You just never know, even when the consensus is that you're selecting the best of the best.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Thanks for this post. Now I feel glad not to have a first round pick. Carson Palmer for the #17 pick and a future 2nd seems like a bargain to me now. I agree, the first round is littered with more misses than hits.

 

[sspunisher]

Great point, but one thing I'd like to point out is usually picks #1-10 have a combination of worse management, coaches and scouts than picks #23-32 simply because the better teams don't usually pick in the top 10. I'm willing to bet the "hit or miss" variance between top 10 picks and bottom 10 picks isn't as big as we'd think it would be.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Great point, but one thing I'd like to point out is usually picks #1-10 have a combination of worse management, coaches and scouts than picks #23-32 simply because the better teams don't usually pick in the top 10. I'm willing to bet the "hit or miss" variance between top 10 picks and bottom 10 picks isn't as big as we'd think it would be.

While this is a valid observation, those bottom feeding organizations also were strapped to bloated rookie contracts that hamstrung their capspace to some degree. With the new CBA and rookie wage scale, this will be less of a detriment. Also, with few exceptions, the top 10 is pretty much a consensus across the board regardless of teams scouts. It's the organization, coaches, etc. that sometimes determine if a player makes it or not.

 

[HE DID WHAT!?]

I love top 10 draft RBs. The last 15 drafts has produced 14 top 10 pick RBs:

Spiller,

McFadden,

A. Peterson,

Reggie Bush,

Ronnie Brown,

Caddilac,

Ced Benson,

Tomlinson,

Jamal Lewis,

Thomas Jones,

Edgerrin James,

Ricky williams,

Curtis Enis &

Fred Taylor

The only real bust is Enis and I think he had an injured knee. The odds on Richardson being good ~ great are high.

 

[Sabertooth]

Quarterbacks taken in the first round generally are pretty good as well.

 

[sspunisher]

Great point, but one thing I'd like to point out is usually picks #1-10 have a combination of worse management, coaches and scouts than picks #23-32 simply because the better teams don't usually pick in the top 10. I'm willing to bet the "hit or miss" variance between top 10 picks and bottom 10 picks isn't as big as we'd think it would be.

While this is a valid observation, those bottom feeding organizations also were strapped to bloated rookie contracts that hamstrung their capspace to some degree. With the new CBA and rookie wage scale, this will be less of a detriment. Also, with few exceptions, the top 10 is pretty much a consensus across the board regardless of teams scouts. It's the organization, coaches, etc. that sometimes determine if a player makes it or not.

Very good point I hadn't considered the contracts.As for the top 10 being static across the board, that's why I mentioned coaches along with management and scouts. Coaches picking in the top 10 for the most part won't get as much out of their players than those picking in the bottom 10. I know it's a very broad generalization, and sometimes extraordinary circumstances push good teams into the top 10 of a draft, but I do believe developing these young players is a very delicate process. Sometimes just one or two years under bad influences is enough to mess up an entire player's potential. My main point is that I don't like to put stock in dysfunctional teams like the Raiders drafting guys like Russel and Heyward-Bey, Mangini drafting Gholston, all of Del Rio's bad picks over the years, etc.

 

[Ian F]

I love top 10 draft RBs. The last 15 drafts has produced 14 top 10 pick RBs: Spiller, McFadden, A. Peterson, Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown, Caddilac, Ced Benson, Tomlinson, Jamal Lewis, Thomas Jones, Edgerrin James, Ricky williams, Curtis Enis & Fred TaylorThe only real bust is Enis and I think he had an injured knee. The odds on Richardson being good ~ great are high.

There were plenty of ups and downs with these guys, even though most eventually had success. Still a lot didn't return the value of a high pick, ieSpiller - still timeMcFadden - will if he stays healthyBush - 1 good year many years into his careerR BrownCaddyBenson

 

[Sabertooth]

Ted Thompson and Bill Belicheck understand that the best draft strategy is to throw a lot of #### at the wall and see what sticks. Thus they trade back often. It is an inexact science to say the least.

 

[cstu]

Looking at that list it sure seems like a lot of defensive players were over-rated coming out of college.

There are some busts on offense - notably Young and Leinart - but other than the bone-headed Ginn pick they've been pretty good on offense.

 

[cstu]

Ted Thompson and Bill Belicheck understand that the best draft strategy is to throw a lot of #### at the wall and see what sticks. Thus they trade back often. It is an inexact science to say the least.

The hardest part IMO is trying to figure out who won't let the money go to their head. It seems like the guys in at the bottom of the 1st and later have more to play for then the ones given tens of millions guaranteed.

 

[rzrback77]

Good advice, but I doubt that it will be much heeded. Spring always brings about the optimistic fan and the draft is the definition of Spring.

 

[Shutout]

I love top 10 draft RBs. The last 15 drafts has produced 14 top 10 pick RBs:

Spiller,

McFadden,

A. Peterson,

Reggie Bush,

Ronnie Brown,

Caddilac,

Ced Benson,

Tomlinson,

Jamal Lewis,

Thomas Jones,

Edgerrin James,

Ricky williams,

Curtis Enis &

Fred Taylor

The only real bust is Enis and I think he had an injured knee. The odds on Richardson being good ~ great are high.

I get what you are saying in terms of real life, but when you look at it from a fantasy perspective, this is kind of grim. In the FF community, we follow all these guys as they get hyped and, ESPECIALLY when they are taken top 10 in the NFL, we crown them. Even a guy like Moreno who went 12 but was the first RB taken ended up getting the #1 overall in a lot of rookie drafts.Anyways, in FF, this list is a minefield of frustration. can you imagine how these guys affected FF teams over the years:

Solid, worth the price paid, no questions asked:

A. Peterson,

Tomlinson,

Edgerrin James,

Some great years, but seems like you had to own them 2 years for every 1 you got

Reggie Bush,

Ced Benson,

Jamal Lewis,

Thomas Jones,

Ricky williams,

Fred Taylor

Injuries just didn't let it pan out (or we are still waiting to see

Spiller,

McFadden,

Ronnie Brown,

Caddilac,

Curtis Enis

All in all, the reall NFL draft and the associated high pick and hype contributed to ALL these guys being very high FF draft picks, but almost none of them were worth it.