This thread will discuss the increasing number of fantasy drafters that take a QB in early rounds. The NFL is rapidly becoming a passing league. Even if you don’t look at the stats, you can tell by watching the games with ever higher scores (Green Bay Arizona playoff) and sometimes huge come backs. Last year’s super bowl featured Brees and Manning, two of the best QBs there are. If the NFL teams must have a top QB, then most are thinking that their fantasy team should as well.
Consider that last year, there were ten QBs that passed for over 4,000 yards and twelve that passed for over 25 TDs. In 08, there were only 6 with over 4k and 7 with over 25 TDs. In 07, there were 7 and 10. As recently as 06, there were only 5 QBs passing for over 4,000 and only 3 with over 25 TDs. The stats definitely confirm what your eyes see watching the games. Great QBs are more important than ever. And since you must start one, you need to grab a great one earlier than ever. But, as Lee Corso always says…”Not so fast”
The most important factor in determining when a QB needs to be drafted is not the scoring system or how he ranks in overall points, it is how many teams are in your league. If you play in ten team leagues or smaller, then you can still wait. Last year everyone in a ten teamer could have had a 4k passer and probably 25 TDs as well. When you compare the number of starting QBs in your league and the point differential between the very top and the lower ranked starter, that helps put things in perspective.
Let’s consider the leagues that award all TDs 6 points. Eli Manning finished last year as QB10 and almost exactly 100 points or 6.3 points per game behind the QB1, which was Aaron Rodgers. In leagues where passing TDs are only 4 points, the difference is even less at 95 and 5.9 per game. But that is comparing the #1 to the #10, let’s compare the #3 to the #10. At 6 pts passing TDs, the difference is 51 and 3.2 per game. With the 4 pt pass TDs, it is 44 and 2.8 per game.
And looking even further, there were 18 QBs last year that scored 296 or more (6 pt TD). The difference between #3 and #18 was only 110 and 6.9 per game. With the 4pt TDs, it was 91 and 5.7 per game.
If you play in ten team leagues, you should still use patience and upgrade your other starting positions prior to drafting a QB. Do your homework and determine which of the QB10 to QB20 guys that you are confident in, review their ADPs and then plan to act when necessary to insure that you get them. If you think that Roethlisberger will step right back in when he returns, his ADP would make him attractive as a later round second QB. If you are not that confident with any of the QBs in the 10 to 20 ADP range, then grab two back to back in the later rounds.
I think that this strategy is also applicable with twelve teamers, but more caution should be used. What says the Shark Pool, are even smaller leagues going QB earlier in 2010 based on the production of the top ten QBs a year ago?
Consider that last year, there were ten QBs that passed for over 4,000 yards and twelve that passed for over 25 TDs. In 08, there were only 6 with over 4k and 7 with over 25 TDs. In 07, there were 7 and 10. As recently as 06, there were only 5 QBs passing for over 4,000 and only 3 with over 25 TDs. The stats definitely confirm what your eyes see watching the games. Great QBs are more important than ever. And since you must start one, you need to grab a great one earlier than ever. But, as Lee Corso always says…”Not so fast”
The most important factor in determining when a QB needs to be drafted is not the scoring system or how he ranks in overall points, it is how many teams are in your league. If you play in ten team leagues or smaller, then you can still wait. Last year everyone in a ten teamer could have had a 4k passer and probably 25 TDs as well. When you compare the number of starting QBs in your league and the point differential between the very top and the lower ranked starter, that helps put things in perspective.
Let’s consider the leagues that award all TDs 6 points. Eli Manning finished last year as QB10 and almost exactly 100 points or 6.3 points per game behind the QB1, which was Aaron Rodgers. In leagues where passing TDs are only 4 points, the difference is even less at 95 and 5.9 per game. But that is comparing the #1 to the #10, let’s compare the #3 to the #10. At 6 pts passing TDs, the difference is 51 and 3.2 per game. With the 4 pt pass TDs, it is 44 and 2.8 per game.
And looking even further, there were 18 QBs last year that scored 296 or more (6 pt TD). The difference between #3 and #18 was only 110 and 6.9 per game. With the 4pt TDs, it was 91 and 5.7 per game.
If you play in ten team leagues, you should still use patience and upgrade your other starting positions prior to drafting a QB. Do your homework and determine which of the QB10 to QB20 guys that you are confident in, review their ADPs and then plan to act when necessary to insure that you get them. If you think that Roethlisberger will step right back in when he returns, his ADP would make him attractive as a later round second QB. If you are not that confident with any of the QBs in the 10 to 20 ADP range, then grab two back to back in the later rounds.
I think that this strategy is also applicable with twelve teamers, but more caution should be used. What says the Shark Pool, are even smaller leagues going QB earlier in 2010 based on the production of the top ten QBs a year ago?
