Drafting from the 12th spot....strategy talk (1 Viewer)

[ComfortablyNumb]

 

[taco breath]

im thinking you should go

b

b

r

r

 

[tommyGunZ]

I think this may be a great spot to completely flip the script and try a new QB-QB strategy, taking Manning and Palmer.

:counterintelligence:

 

[PumpusX]

Ok, so, all the qb talk aside, back on topic.Im now content to wait till my 3rd/4th pick to most likely grab a QB. I doubt I'll wait any longer, as I want one of my top 5 ranked guys. Im back to the belief that I pretty much have to take 2 RBs to start out.

Is this true if it's PPR. A top 3 receiver gets you 8 or so points a game more than a 7-10 RB. I have the 12th pick this year and had it last year as well. Last year I went RB, RB, WR, WR. I didn't make out too badly but this year I am giving some seriuos thought to going best RB avaiable and either Holt/Smith/CJ. I think this gives me the most flex for the 3/4 turn. I can go RB/WR or RB/QB.In a few mocks I've done I come up with MJD/HenryHoltHoushBulgerThis is not too bad of a start.

I'm thinking the same thing--take best RB/Steve Smith in a 0.5 PPR league. That way we're not behind the curve on WR and have flexibility to go RB/WR or RB/QB at the 3/4 turn. It turns my stomach to think of drafting Rudi Johnson/Portis at the 1/2 turn. I don't foresee many Superbowl Champs with that draft start.

 

[barndog]

I'm thinking the same thing--take best RB/Steve Smith in a 0.5 PPR league. That way we're not behind the curve on WR and have flexibility to go RB/WR or RB/QB at the 3/4 turn. It turns my stomach to think of drafting Rudi Johnson/Portis at the 1/2 turn. I don't foresee many Superbowl Champs with that draft start.

I'm not convinced there's a "behind the curve at WR" this year. In another real (slow) draft, I'll be taking my first WR in the 4th and it's looking like Javon Walker or Roy Williams will be available (granted, it's a 10-team league). But in general the WRs available at 3.12/4.01 are guys like J Walker, M Colston, L Evans, and TJ Housh [based on avg ADPs from DD], all of whom could finish in the top ten. BTW, I would never take Portis that early (seriously, yuck), but either T Henry or Maroney paired with Rudi seems a good start to me.

 

[Keg]

How is Palmer throwing 10 more TD's NOT a 60 point difference? Your premise is wrong.

He's comparing 6-pt-per-TD leagues to 4-pt-per-TD leagues. If Palmer throws 10 TDs more than Kitna, then he outscores him by 40 points in 4-pt leagues and 60 points in 6-pt leagues. The difference between a 4-pt league and a 6-pt league, therefore, is the difference between 40 and 60, or 20 points.

Got it.

Scoring passing TDs 4 or 6 points does not impact the value of QBs relative to the other positions and should not change your draft baord.

it takes a brave soul to go WR WR from the 12 slot but it can work(but i think you have to wait on QB)

WR/WR

RB/RB

QB/WRorRB

 

[murzman]

For PPR (1PPR for WR, 0.5 for RB), who would be inclined to gamble with: WR/WR/RB/RB/RB type start?

This could give you:

C.Johnson

Holt

Caddy

Deuce or Green

J.Jones

Edwards

.. then grab a couple RBs later who have the chance to win outright starting job like: back to back picks of Morency/Jackson, White/Brown, Jordan, Taylor etc..

 

[Garrett]

For PPR (1PPR for WR, 0.5 for RB), who would be inclined to gamble with: WR/WR/RB/RB/RB type start?This could give you:C.JohnsonHoltCaddyDeuce or GreenJ.JonesEdwards

My local league is .5 PPR RB/WR; I went...1.12 Reggie Bush2.01 Steve Smith3.12 Javon Walker4.01 Lee Evans5.12 DeAngelo Williams6.01 Jerious Norwood7.12 DeShaun Foster8.01 Jericho Cotchery9.12 LaDell Betts10.01 Ben RoethlisbergerI ended up grabbing Heath Miller late as TE. I also grabbed Warrick Dunn as insurance. Jacksonville/Carolina DEF combo. We start 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te, 1 flex (rb/wr/te).Delhomme, Jake CAR QB - 7Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB - 6Betts, Ladell WAS RB - 4Brown, Chris TEN RB - 4Bush, Reggie NOS RB - 4Dunn, Warrick ATL RB - 8Foster, De'shaun CAR RB - 7Norwood, Jerious ATL RB - 8Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB - 7Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR - 10Evans, Lee BUF WR - 6Smith, Steve CAR WR - 7Walker, Javon DEN WR - 6Williams, Demetrius BAL WR - 8Daniels, Owen HOU TE - 10Miller, Heath PIT TE - 6Miller, Zach OAK TE - 5Hanson, Jason DET PK - 6Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def - 4Panthers, Carolina CAR Def - 7

 

[murzman]

For PPR (1PPR for WR, 0.5 for RB), who would be inclined to gamble with: WR/WR/RB/RB/RB type start?This could give you:C.JohnsonHoltCaddyDeuce or GreenJ.JonesEdwards

My local league is .5 PPR RB/WR; I went...1.12 Reggie Bush2.01 Steve Smith3.12 Javon Walker4.01 Lee Evans5.12 DeAngelo Williams6.01 Jerious Norwood7.12 DeShaun Foster8.01 Jericho Cotchery9.12 LaDell Betts10.01 Ben RoethlisbergerI ended up grabbing Heath Miller late as TE. I also grabbed Warrick Dunn as insurance. Jacksonville/Carolina DEF combo. We start 2 rb, 3 wr, 1 te, 1 flex (rb/wr/te).Delhomme, Jake CAR QB - 7Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB - 6Betts, Ladell WAS RB - 4Brown, Chris TEN RB - 4Bush, Reggie NOS RB - 4Dunn, Warrick ATL RB - 8Foster, De'shaun CAR RB - 7Norwood, Jerious ATL RB - 8Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB - 7Cotchery, Jerricho NYJ WR - 10Evans, Lee BUF WR - 6Smith, Steve CAR WR - 7Walker, Javon DEN WR - 6Williams, Demetrius BAL WR - 8Daniels, Owen HOU TE - 10Miller, Heath PIT TE - 6Miller, Zach OAK TE - 5Hanson, Jason DET PK - 6Jaguars, Jacksonville JAC Def - 4Panthers, Carolina CAR Def - 7

I'd be pretty happy with that team. Some risk, some safety. Looks like an option to avoid RB risk when going heavy WR early is to draft a couple tandem RBs like Norwood/Dunn, Foster/Dwill etc...

 

[Gonzo Stokes]

just came out with;

1.12 Henry

2.1 Bush

3.12 Houshmandzadeh

4.1 Fitzgerald

5.12 Calvin Johnson

6.1 Cadillac

7.12 Ravens

8.1 Roethlisberger

9.12 Jennings

10.1 MB III

11.12 Anthony Gonzalez

12.1 Owen Daniels

13.12 Grossman

14.1 Hanson

Defenses score a lot of points in this league and I wanted to get that put to bed early. There was an insane rush of QBs early and Roethlisberger was the last QB on the board I felt comfortable starting every week.

 

[The Goose is Loose]

I'm drafting 11th in a 12 team PPR league and I think the strategy is very similar to drafting 12th.

For the past few weeks I've been preaching RB-RB with my first 2 picks and then go WR-WR in rounds 3 and 4. However, it seems to be a trend over the past couple of years that more and more people are waiting later in the draft to grab their second RB. So I'm a little concerned that if I wait until round 3 to grab my first WR, I could end up with WR18 as my #1. A little scary.

So I think my new strategy is:

RB at 11 (Bush, Rudi, Henry)

WR at 14 (hopefully Steve Smith)

WR/RB at 35 (maybe a T. Jones or Benson falls to me here, if not, best WR available)

RB/WR at 38 (best player available at the position I didn't take at 35)

I guess the bottom line is that it's all a crapshoot when you are drafting from either the top or bottom of the draft. If you think there's going to be a lot of running backs gone before you're 3rd round pick then it's probably a good idea to go RB-RB in the first 2 rounds. If you think there will be a big run on WR's before your 3rd pick, then go RB-WR.

 

[murzman]

How about drafting Gates at 3.12/4.01 if he is available? Who sees Gates as being more valubale in PPR than the WR tier of Driver/Evans/Colston etc.? I personally have a hard time drafting Gates but maybe Gates + say Jennings is better than Driver and say Witten....

 

[elderberries]

i don't see how you don't take henry if he's available here. not only does he have the most potential to end up a top 5 back by the end of the year, but he has a proven and under the radar backup in mike bell. you should be able to pick him up late in the draft and have excellent insurance. henry's a no brainer to me. if he's not there, then the wr/wr idea might be the way to go. i wasn't high on that initially but after a few mocks it might be a viable strategy. i even went so far to draft a qb 3rd if there was a top 5 back at that spot. or even maybe a 3rd wr if someone like walker is there, though i realize that puts two broncos on your team. this is assuming standard 12 team redraft.

 

[Sweeper]

Eight rounds in from the 12 slot and here's what I have so far

1.12 Alexander, Shaun SEA RB

2.1 Johnson, Rudi CIN RB

3.12 Gates, Antonio SDC TE

4.1 Jones, Thomas NYJ RB

5.12 Coles, Laveranues NYJ WR

6.1 Brown, Reggie PHI WR

7.12 Chambers, Chris MIA WR

8.1 Hasselbeck, Matt SEA QB

I'm a little light at WR but solid WR's always emerge a few weeks in which is why I drafted RB heavy so early. Other than that, I have a pretty solid team here so far.

 

[Garrett]

i don't see how you don't take henry if he's available here. not only does he have the most potential to end up a top 5 back by the end of the year, but he has a proven and under the radar backup in mike bell. you should be able to pick him up late in the draft and have excellent insurance. henry's a no brainer to me. if he's not there, then the wr/wr idea might be the way to go. i wasn't high on that initially but after a few mocks it might be a viable strategy. i even went so far to draft a qb 3rd if there was a top 5 back at that spot. or even maybe a 3rd wr if someone like walker is there, though i realize that puts two broncos on your team. this is assuming standard 12 team redraft.

Henry went 1.05 in our draft.

 

[barndog]

Henry went 1.05 in our draft.

Here's what I got last night. League is 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR/TE.1.12 Travis Henry DEN2.01 Steve Smith CAR3.12 Brandon Jacobs NYG4.01 Larry Fitzgerald ARI5.12 Ahman Green HOU6.01 Tony Romo DAL7.12 Fred Taylor JAC8.01 Bernard Berrian CHI9.12 Mike Bell DEN10.01 Denver Broncos DEN11.12 Byron Leftwich JAC12.02 Jerry Porter OAK 13.12 Brandon Jones TEN14.01 Stephen Gostkowski NWENote: draft was at 7pm before Henry's injury news, so it didn't affect him dropping. One guy took Palmer at 1.06, which helped.Larry Fitz slipping to me at the 3/4 turn was huge. Otherwise, I think I did as well as I could; the other drafters weren't perfect but didn't let much slip through.

 

[barndog]

BTW, now picking 12/12 or 10/10 in three of five leagues. Just that kind of year for me I guess.

 

[Crusaderfan]

I'm drafting 11th in a 12 team PPR league and I think the strategy is very similar to drafting 12th.For the past few weeks I've been preaching RB-RB with my first 2 picks and then go WR-WR in rounds 3 and 4. However, it seems to be a trend over the past couple of years that more and more people are waiting later in the draft to grab their second RB. So I'm a little concerned that if I wait until round 3 to grab my first WR, I could end up with WR18 as my #1. A little scary.So I think my new strategy is:RB at 11 (Bush, Rudi, Henry)WR at 14 (hopefully Steve Smith)WR/RB at 35 (maybe a T. Jones or Benson falls to me here, if not, best WR available)RB/WR at 38 (best player available at the position I didn't take at 35)I guess the bottom line is that it's all a crapshoot when you are drafting from either the top or bottom of the draft. If you think there's going to be a lot of running backs gone before you're 3rd round pick then it's probably a good idea to go RB-RB in the first 2 rounds. If you think there will be a big run on WR's before your 3rd pick, then go RB-WR.

I have the 11th pick in a PPR this coming weekend and as much as I like Rudi, I really don't like him in a PPR. I'm hoping that someone takes him before my pick so I'm not faced with that decision. I'm pretty sure Manning will be gone since we give 6 pts for a passing TD and the guy that won the league last year with Manning picks at #9. I'm hoping to have my choice between Henry and Bush. Maroney is a guy that I'm having a hard time placing a value on. I'm thinking that at 2.2 my choices will be Maroney, McGahee, R. Brown MJD and one of the top WR's. Still working out which way to go there.

 

[Genester]

I drew the 11 slot in one of my drafts and I'm narrowing down my list to a couple RBs to take on the way back if they're still available. If not, I'll take Marvin Harrison, Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, or Peyton Manning. Those guys are virtually bust proof, and the object of rounds 1 and 2 is to NOT BUST.I have a theory that Marvin Harrison is the most underrated player in the history of FF. If you draft Marvin Harrison every year in the 2nd round, unless you completely whiff on the rest of your draft, I think you'll automatically make the playoffs.

Watch out with the bust proof stuff. A guy in my league and myself in another league went CJ/SS at 1.12/2.1. Neither of us made the play-offs, as both SS and CJ undeperformed at least in the early part of last year.

 

[s_ezy]

i started with S.Smith and Holt from the turn, then got Portis and Boldin with 3.12, 4.01

its a PPR league, but still unsure about how this will turn out

 

[smapdi]

Had my draft last night from the 12 spot. It's a 12 team PPR league and I was praying Reggie Bush would drop to me but the ******* at 11 took him before me. I was a little shocked by this developement and went RB/WR instead of RB/RB

1.12 - Rudi Johnson

2.01 - Marvin Harrison

3.12 - Roy Willams

4.01 - Marc Bulger

5.12 - Jamal Lewis

6.01 - DeAngelo Willams

7.12 - SD Def

8.01 - Vernon Davis

9.12 - Mark Clayton

10.01 - Kevin Curtis

 

[kinnebrew]

I'm also at 11, which as the previous poster said is basically 12. But I'm more of a pessimist on this spot.

After crunching the numbers, it looks like there's no way to offset the dropoff in value from LT to whichever back I'd take. WR is so deep, the guys picking 1-2-3 will have plenty left when the serpentine comes back around. And, even though we're one of the freakazoid 6-pt. TD pass leagues, I find it hard to pull the trigger on any QB after Manning, who always goes in the top 10.

I'm leaning toward a strategy of trading down in the second to amass some more early to mid-round picks. Everybody on this thread has focused on the first and second, but the better way to counter the 27 ppg studs at the top, it seems to me, is to hit on the sleepers later on and maybe trade for a stud later on. And it seems like, when picking from a position on the end, you may have to reach for those guys, knowing you'd have to sweat out 20-some players on the way back.

 

[s_ezy]

i started with S.Smith and Holt from the turn, then got Portis and Boldin with 3.12, 4.01its a PPR league, but still unsure about how this will turn out

giving an update hereat 5.12/6/01 tooktatum belljamal lewisstill going to need more RB in the next 4 rounds, but we shall we what value presents itself

 

[thealy35]

here is my recent draft results from the 12th spot in a 12 team league. i ended up going RB-QB, RB-WR, RB-WR with the philosophy that i would take whoever imo was the best player on the board instead of drafting a certain position at a certain time.

my league starts QB, 2 RBs, 3WRs, 1 RB/WR, TE, K, DEF.

Quarterback

Peyton Manning (2.01)

Steve McNair (15.12)

RB

Laurence Maroney (1.12)

Clinton Portis (3.12)

Adrian Peterson MIN (6.01)

Ladell Betts (7.12)

Chester Taylor (8.01)

Sammy Morris (16.01)

WR

Roy Williams (4.01)

Plaxico Burress (5.12)

DJ Hackett (10.01)

Brandon Jones (13.12)

David Boston (17.12)

Drew Carter (18.01)

TE

Jason Witten (9.12)

Ben Watson (11.12)

K

Adam Vinatieri (12.01)

D

Dallas Cowboys (14.01)

 

[MSULions]

Had my main money league draft tonight and got the 12th spot out of 12. initially I was ticked off after finding out, but this thread helped ease the pain a bit. In the end i followed the RB/RB - WR/WR strategy and think it worked out well. we start QB/2RB/3WR/TE/Flex/Def with standard scoring...ended up with:

1.12 - Willie Parker

2.01 - Reggie Bush

3.12 - Roy Williams

4.01 - Andre Johnson

5.12 - Tony Romo

6.01 - Vincent Jackson (my only real reach...just a feeling)

7.12 - Deangelo Williams

8.01 - Vernon Davis

Backups:

TE: Dallas Clark (14th round!)

WR: Brandon Marshall, Wes Welker, Craig Davis

RB: Warrick Dunn, T.J. Duckett

QB: Eli Manning

Shayne Graham and Miami/Oak d's.

Overall, I think i'm very solid, with RB being the only real weak spot. Looking at some of the mid-round teams, I really think I came out ahead. but we shall see.

Just wanted to give one more perspective on this for anyone yet to draft....

 

[Kensil]

I draft 12th and my draft is tomorrow. I think that RB/RB for the first two picks isn't good. I was toying with the idea of going WR/WR but I can't pass us Rudi or Maroney if they fall to me. I'll grab one of them and get the best WR.

 

[salmonstud]

12 team redraft - 1 point per 10 yards rush/receiving & 20 yards passing. 6 point per rush/receiving TD, 4 point per passing TD, NO PPR.

Start: QB,RB,RB,WR,WR,TE,K. This is a no trading league (waiver wire only). With starting only 2 WR's and NO PPR....WR & TE positions are less important. The team that usually wins this league has good depth at RB & an elite QB. Rushing QB's hold a premium with the TD differential.

I drew the 11 spot and my roster through 10 rounds below

1. Westbrook

2. McGahee

3. A.Peterson

4. J.Walker

5. V.Young

6. D.Williams

7. Coles

8. Witten

9. S.Holmes

10. Big Ben R.

Guy that drew the 12 spot - roster below through 10 rounds

1. Maroney

2. R.Bush

3. A.Green

4. Houshy

5. Kitna

6. Heap

7. Galloway

8. Romo

9. Clayton

10. Hackett

1st round: LT, S-Jax, Alexander, Parker, Gore, Addai, Manning, Rudi J, Henry, Westbrook, Maroney

2nd round: Bush, McGahee, S.Smith, James, 0cho-Cinco, Jones-Drew, R.Brown, Benson, Brady, Portis, Palmer, Brees

3rd round: Lynch, T.O., Jacobs, Holt, Harrison, Wayne, Fitz, Caddy, Roy, Gaters, A.Peterson, A.Green,

4th round: Houshy, Walker, T.Jones, Bulger, McAllister, R.Moss, J.Lewis, McNabb, Barber, Gonzo, Boldin, A.Johnson

 

[davegod2]

12th pick - 0.5 PPR for RB, 1 PPR for WR, 1.5 PPR for TE:

1.12 Brian Westbrook

2.01 Travis Henry

3.12 Anquan Boldin

4.01 Andre Johnson

5.12 Clinton Portis

6.01 Jeremy Shockey

7.12 Carnell Williams

8.01 Tony Romo

First round went:

Tomlinson, S. Jackson, LJ, Manning, Alexander, Addai, Gore, Rudi, Bush, Parker, Maroney, Westbrook

 

[Church of Iggy Pop]

Probably too late to help all but the latest drafters, but here goes...

08/29/07 12 team live draft at local watering hole

no PPR, passing TDs 3 pts, otherwise normal FBG scoring

Odd Rule: Each team required to draft EXACTLY 3 QB, 4 RB, 5 WR, 2 TE, 2 PK, 2 D

From the 12th spot...

1.12/2.01 - RB/RB - Travis Henry / Laurence Maroney ( Bush was available )

3.12/4.01 - WR/WR - Lee Evans / TJ Houshmandzadeh

5.12/6.01 - RB/WR - Adrian Peterson / Santana Moss

7.12/8.01 - QB/RB - Alex Smith / Fred Taylor

9.12/10.01 - QB/WR - JP Losman / Ronald Curry

11.12/12.01 - TE/QB - Dallas Clark / Leftwich :X

13.12/14.01 - WR/TE - Wes Welker / Bo Scaife

15/16/17/18 - 2 kickers and 2 defenses

The Good:

First round went Peyton and 10 RBs, so I was happy to go RB/RB, and pick 2 of ( Bush, Henry, Maroney ). Starting three healthy, non-BYE WRs from a roster max of 5 is very tough, so I was leaning WR/WR for rounds 3/4, and was happy with Lee Evans / TJ Housh as well. I love having Fred Taylor as my RB4.

The Bad:

I set out to avoid waiting too long on TE again this season. I was going to take a top-tier TE early, if any semblance of value presented itself. It never did, not even close, as three separate runs on the position left me reaching for Dallas Clark and Bo Scaife. Watson and Witten were already gone before my 9.12 pick, where I had hoped to find one of them.

The Ugly:

In my opinion, the turning point of my draft came when I was finally ready to draft my first QB in the seventh round, and my buddy stole Roethlisberger right out from under my nose, one pick in front of me at 7.11. I had been eying him for at least two rounds, and had really gotten my hopes up that I could take him as the 14th QB off the board. I always try to be the last to draft my first QB in this league, since passing touchdowns are only worth 3 points. With Big Ben gone, I still had to grab at least one QB, so settled for Alex Smith -- Yuck! What a comedown. I blame myself for talking publicly about

how I would be taking a QB with 7.12/8.01. I figured it was safe, since every other team in the league had 1 QB, and a couple had already drafted their second. Loose lips sink ships, I guess...

Story that only I will find interesting:

I was jeered for selecting Nick Folk with my 18th pick, especially when a guy three slots later takes Gramatica. Most in attendance were congratulating him on selecting the "real" Dallas kicker.

Then again, I can't be too smug after spending my 12th rounder on Leftwich as my QB3.

Thanks to all who participated in this thread. It really helped me prep for my draft.

 

[madd futher]

My first post here guys. I'm a refugee from the fftoday forum. I've been a lurker here and this is a great forum. I have 3 ff teams. I drafted 12th in one (a ppr league), and I think it was my best draft:

Picks 1.12 & 2.01 Rudy Johnson and Jones-Drew

Picks 3.12 & 4.01 Housh and A. Johnson

Picks 5.12 & 6.01 A. Green & Coles

Picks 7.12 & 8.01 Cooley and Galloway

Picks 9.12 & 10.01 Favre and Denver D

Picks 11.12 & 12.01 Curry and Jacoby Jones

Picks 13.12 & 14.01 Schuab and Elam

Picks 16.11 & 16.12 Quinn and M. Morris (the draft went way too long so all we agreed to pick two picks the last 2 rounds, so that's how I wound up with the last 2 picks of the draft.)

I hear a lot about draft strategy (ie. RB-RB-WR) in these posts. I've never believed in that. I think the best strategy is to target the best players likely to be there in each round of the draft and then take what the draft gives you. Since there was a run on QB's way too early in this draft, by electing to ignore the run I was able to grab A.Green, Coles, Cooley, and Galloway.

Everyone had taken at least one (some took 2) QB's by the time I got Favre. After Favre there was literally no reasonable QB left. You will note that J-Drew, Green, Coles and Galloway all do better in PPR formats, and were definitely some of my targets for the rounds in which they were taken.