Onesie (QB/TE) draft strategy, 2025 (4 Viewers)

[ignatiusjreilly]

Weirdly enough, I realized that I've posted this thread in 2021 and 2023, but skipped 2022 and 2024. I have no idea why (although reading what I wrote in the previous threads, it's not like it helped give me any great insights. I really crapped the bed both times.)

So I guess that makes this the IJR's Official Third Biennial Onesie Draft Strategy post. Here's my thinking heading into 2025 (haven't had any drafts yet):

Similar to what I said two years ago, I want to come out of my draft with a set-it-and-forget-it option at one of the two positions, but not both. I don't want to go too early on both because I don't like burning two early/mid-round picks. But I don't like punting on both because when I punt I like to take two lottery tickets, and I'd rather not have four roster slots for my onesies.

I think the big difference this year is that I'm far more willing to punt on QB because I think there are so many good late-round options. I might consider one of the Big Four if they fell, but I feel no need to draft them at ADP when there are a ton of late-round guys I'd be happy with: Herbert, Dak, Kyler, Fields, Love, Stroud, Maye.

TE, as always, is trickier. Bowers and McBride will almost certainly be too rich for my blood. I'd consider Kittle as early as the late 3rd, but I've been seeing him go earlier than that in most of my mocks. There are a couple mid-round guys I'd consider (Andrews' ADP seems a bit low to me, so there may be value there). I'm also intrigued by Kraft, Njoku (as long as Flacco is starting), Warren, and possibly Kincaid and Engram.

I guess that means my ideal outcome would be Andrews and two late-round QBs? Not sure what I'd do if I missed out on Andrews, though. I'm still thinking this all through.

What is everyone else thinking?

(Also, standard disclaimer that I'm talking exclusively about leagues where you only start one of each position and they all have similar scoring. So no superflex/TE premium leagues, which would obviously change the calculations.)

 

[Ilov80s]

I would consider tier 1 of these positions to be Lamar, Allen, Daniels, Hurts Burrow and Bowers, McBride, KIttle. I agree that I would like at least one of those players in every draft. If I can get Kittle in the third and Hurts in the 4th I would probably do it but am not forcing it, has to be a truly BPA situation to take both positions so early. I think the position I don't go early on, I want to double tap later with something like Purdy/Fields, Goff/Maye, Herbert/Love or with TE Warren/Kraft, Kincaid/Pitts, etc.

 

[MAC_32]

TE
*If either Kittle or McBride fall to pick 40something, pick one
*If they don't target pick 90something for either Engram or Njoku
*If they don't make it and the roster is deep enough to hold 2 TE's, pick Warren or Loveland
*Then pick Ertz late

QB
Wait...wait...then wait some more

 

[darksideofoz]

I'm trying to get one of the 3 TEs, but not above my ranks. Some ADP has one to all three going higher than I rank them.

In the only redraft league that has drafted thus far, McBride went 28. I was going to take Bowers at 30, but then I was offered a trade to move down to 34 and lucky enough, Bowers was still there for me to take. Kittle went 36. In that case McBride went just ahead of my ranks, I got a bit of a discount on Bowers and Kittle went right where I had him ranked.

All of my redraft leagues are superflex except my guillotine league, but each is a little different than the other. I do want to get one of Lamar, Allen, Daniels, Hurts or Burrow in two of the three leagues. The third is a bit different in that there is only one flex position which is also the super flex. the other two have two flex with one of them being super flex. The one with only the one flex is a bit more of a RB friendly format and I have always done well with my mid to late QB speculation, so I tend to focus on RBs when those top QBs are going.

 

[Scoresman]

JJ Zachariason touched on this in a podcast recently saying this might be a good year to go elite options at the onesies as kind of a "fill out your starters first" strategy. He points to two things that justify this.

1) The elite QBs are very predictable. No other position has the confidence of the projected top 4 QBs finishing as such. And that predictability has value when drafting.

2) WR is incredibly deep with many high ceiling options in rounds 4+ that are almost if not just as good as the WRs going in round 3.

Personally, I'm ok doing this if my short list of guys in round 2/3 are taken. I find this happens most often when I pick early, and have decisions to make at the 2/3 turn.

 

[Ramblin Wreck]

If 10 team leagues, I think it's a good strategy to target McBride or Bowers and one of the big 4 QB. If your scoring system has 6 point passing TD, I would say Burrow makes it a big 5 and Mahomes maybe a Big 6.

In competitive 12 team leagues, I am waiting on QB unless I can get one of the Big 4 in the 4th round, which I don't see happen in home leagues. There are 20 QBs that one could argue could hit the top 10. Just take your two favorites in Round 9 or later after getting 8 RB/WR/TE.

I would take Bowers or McBride after the top 12 or 13 WR are gone (depending on your opinion of Tyreek Hill) and top 11 RB are gone. I wouldn't criticize anyone for taking either in the second round. If they hit their projections, they are likely league winners like peak Kelce was.

As Scoresman alluded to, there are Round 3 WR that don't outscore the Round 4+ WR by much. They are Round 3 because of their ceiling but they all come with red flags and aren't fun clicks for me. I have a home league next week with a late 3rd rounder and really hope one of the RB in that round makes it to me.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

JJ Zachariason touched on this in a podcast recently saying this might be a good year to go elite options at the onesies as kind of a "fill out your starters first" strategy. He points to two things that justify this.

1) The elite QBs are very predictable. No other position has the confidence of the projected top 4 QBs finishing as such. And that predictability has value when drafting.

2) WR is incredibly deep with many high ceiling options in rounds 4+ that are almost if not just as good as the WRs going in round 3.

Personally, I'm ok doing this if my short list of guys in round 2/3 are taken. I find this happens most often when I pick early, and have decisions to make at the 2/3 turn.

I mentioned this in another thread, but often in my mocks I will get to Rds 3-4, look at the WR options, and realize I'm scared to death to take any of them: Adams, McLaurin, Metcalf, Pickens, Worthy, etc. So I could definitely see a scenario where I use that pick on a Big 3 TE. Problem is, they will probably all be gone by then. So maybe a Big 4 QB if one of them is still around? (I like Burrow, but wouldn't take him that early)

 

[MTskibum]

I assume you also listen to beyond the box score? Didn't Dan/Jacob come up with this term?

 

[pinkstapler]

JJ Zachariason touched on this in a podcast recently saying this might be a good year to go elite options at the onesies as kind of a "fill out your starters first" strategy. He points to two things that justify this.

1) The elite QBs are very predictable. No other position has the confidence of the projected top 4 QBs finishing as such. And that predictability has value when drafting.

2) WR is incredibly deep with many high ceiling options in rounds 4+ that are almost if not just as good as the WRs going in round 3.

Personally, I'm ok doing this if my short list of guys in round 2/3 are taken. I find this happens most often when I pick early, and have decisions to make at the 2/3 turn.

I mentioned this in another thread, but often in my mocks I will get to Rds 3-4, look at the WR options, and realize I'm scared to death to take any of them: Adams, McLaurin, Metcalf, Pickens, Worthy, etc. So I could definitely see a scenario where I use that pick on a Big 3 TE. Problem is, they will probably all be gone by then. So maybe a Big 4 QB if one of them is still around? (I like Burrow, but wouldn't take him that early)

I've been able to get Kittle around the 3/4 turn in 5 of 6 drafts this year. Most of these are pretty competative drafts too. The only one I didn't was where I had 3.07/4.06; it felt too early to take him at that point in the third, and he got nabbed around the turn before he made it back to me in the fourth. If you can draft from 10-12 I think you have a very good shot to get Kittle there. And I've really liked the way my teams shake out doing this.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I assume you also listen to beyond the box score? Didn't Dan/Jacob come up with this term?

Are you talking about "onesie"? I don't listen to that show, and no idea who came up with it, but it's pretty widely used these days.

A quick search of the archives shows people were using the term to refer to QB/TE (as opposed to talking about pajamas) as far back as 2018.

 

[MTskibum]

I assume you also listen to beyond the box score? Didn't Dan/Jacob come up with this term?

Are you talking about "onesie"? I don't listen to that show, and no idea who came up with it, but it's pretty widely used these days.

A quick search of the archives shows people were using the term to refer to QB/TE (as opposed to talking about pajamas) as far back as 2018.

I stand corrected!

 

[ratbast]

In 10 team league, I like going big at QB and TE, every year. Depth at WR and RB is available.

 

[Pots]

Interesting strategy! I think Kittle's ADP is rising too high for my liking, so grabbing a top TE is really costly - and I'm not even sure I'd have him in the same tier as the other 2.

Pedantic of me, I know, but can we not normalize the term 'Onesie'?

 

[-OZ-]

TE
*If either Kittle or McBride fall to pick 40something, pick one
*If they don't target pick 90something for either Engram or Njoku
*If they don't make it and the roster is deep enough to hold 2 TE's, pick Warren or Loveland
*Then pick Ertz late

QB
Wait...wait...then wait some more

Last night’s 12 team SP draft - the big 4 (not hurts) were gone by 4.3. Hurts fell to 6.5 - I considered at 5.4 but had taken kittle at 3.4, but I would have at 6.9.
Mahomes goes 6.7.
Next two in the 8th. (Baker, nix)
Next up Murray at 11.9
7 QBs go in the 12th.

The last 3 teams to take a QB end up with Maye, Caleb and Love.

Hurts was probably the best value but those 7 in the 12th are on par imo with those taken in the 8th.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

TE
*If either Kittle or McBride fall to pick 40something, pick one
*If they don't target pick 90something for either Engram or Njoku
*If they don't make it and the roster is deep enough to hold 2 TE's, pick Warren or Loveland
*Then pick Ertz late

QB
Wait...wait...then wait some more

Last night’s 12 team SP draft - the big 4 (not hurts) were gone by 4.3. Hurts fell to 6.5 - I considered at 5.4 but had taken kittle at 3.4, but I would have at 6.9.
Mahomes goes 6.7.
Next two in the 8th. (Baker, nix)
Next up Murray at 11.9
7 QBs go in the 12th.

The last 3 teams to take a QB end up with Maye, Caleb and Love.

Hurts was probably the best value but those 7 in the 12th are on par imo with those taken in the 8th.

Not sure of your scoring but that sounds crazy to me. IMO Hurts has way more value than Mahomes, Baker, Nix or Kyler. His rushing upside is pretty much guaranteed, and he's a decent enough passer (with fantastic weapons). Also, no way they run as much as they did last year; for one thing, Barkley can't hold up for another 400 touches or whatever it was he had