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Top 3 Pick & The Turn -- Elite QB? Elite TE? Both?? (1 Viewer)

@kyoun1e I am in the same situation as you. I am picking #2 and have done a ton of mocks, going back and forth between taking a TE and/or QB early.

More often than not I like my teams more overall when I pass on both and load up on WR/RB. I like Engram late-ish and a Prescott and another QB (Stroud maybe?) late.
Yup. I like my RB/WR stockpiles in this scenario without a doubt.

Thing is, you have to have conviction on the late QBs/TEs. Right now, not sure I do.
Feels like there’s 15-20 guys where you could make a case for a top 5 finish.

In 6 points passing TD leagues it definitely makes sense to wait.

I’d prefer to be the last guy in my league to take one and then the first guy to draft a QB2.
 
@kyoun1e I am in the same situation as you. I am picking #2 and have done a ton of mocks, going back and forth between taking a TE and/or QB early.

More often than not I like my teams more overall when I pass on both and load up on WR/RB. I like Engram late-ish and a Prescott and another QB (Stroud maybe?) late.
Yup. I like my RB/WR stockpiles in this scenario without a doubt.

Thing is, you have to have conviction on the late QBs/TEs. Right now, not sure I do.
Feels like there’s 15-20 guys where you could make a case for a top 5 finish.

In 6 points passing TD leagues it definitely makes sense to wait.

I’d prefer to be the last guy in my league to take one and then the first guy to draft a QB2.
Who are you are targeting late?

I think you have to have a strong POV on the late QBs and TEs if you're going to wait on both.

Right now I'm zeroing in on Dak and Maye and at TE Fergasun/Loveland/Warren mix.
 
@kyoun1e I am in the same situation as you. I am picking #2 and have done a ton of mocks, going back and forth between taking a TE and/or QB early.

More often than not I like my teams more overall when I pass on both and load up on WR/RB. I like Engram late-ish and a Prescott and another QB (Stroud maybe?) late.
Yup. I like my RB/WR stockpiles in this scenario without a doubt.

Thing is, you have to have conviction on the late QBs/TEs. Right now, not sure I do.
Feels like there’s 15-20 guys where you could make a case for a top 5 finish.

In 6 points passing TD leagues it definitely makes sense to wait.

I’d prefer to be the last guy in my league to take one and then the first guy to draft a QB2.
Who are you are targeting late?

I think you have to have a strong POV on the late QBs and TEs if you're going to wait on both.

Right now I'm zeroing in on Dak and Maye and at TE Fergasun/Loveland/Warren mix.
Dak and I'm very high on Trevor Lawrence after seeing first hand what Liam Coen is capable of.

Bowers kind of broke the rookie TE doesn't produce mold last year so targeting Loveland and Warren with that in mind. We've already seen what Ben Johnson can do with a rookie TE in LaPorta.
 
Having to start 7 WR/RB plus the passing TDs and yardage-the way I did the math - nerfs elite/ rushing QBs quite a bit IMO. Bowers rates as a late first round pick but I'm not quite sure what the new offense is going to look like. Could be a smash. It's a little handy that the QB scoring is exactly the same in my main dynasty league so seeing 24 point base projection rates seems normal.

Base rates:
QB- 24.0 points (12 qualify)
RB/WR- 9.4 points (34 RBs/ 54 WRs) total of 7*12= 84
TE- 9.25 points (12 qualify)

The end of QB1 is a very flat tier of about 6 guys.

VORP- over 10- 1 player- CMC
Between 10-8 (7) players
7-8 (3) players
6-7 (9) players

Lamar QB1 was the 31st player on my board. 4.83 VORP.
 
These two are awesome.

This episode is specifically about their POV on how pick 1 and 2 is the best draft slot in a 12 team PPR draft and what to do at the 2/3 turn. In short, they feel like there's a huge dropoff in talent early in the third. Bunch of WR names not interested in and it makes sense to go either QB or TE:

 
Just did another mock draft going with both TE and QB at the 2/3 turn. Curious how happy folks would be with this:

* QB: L. Jackson (3)
* RB: Bijan (1), T. Pollard (5), I. Pacheco (6), R. Stevenson (8) (J. Mason, T. Allgiere, R. Davis, I. Guerendo)
* WR: X. Worthy (4), J. Meyers (7), R. Pearsall (9), D. Slayton (14)
* TE: T. Mcbride (2)

Pollard was a bit of a reach in round 5 after I missed out on the Hubbard/Conner/Kamara/Henderson tier, but then surprise surprise Pacheco was around at the next turn.

Light at WR but don't mind my top 3. Usually max at 4-5 WRs in order to go after lotto ticket RBs anyways.

Don't mind it.
 
Just did another mock draft going with both TE and QB at the 2/3 turn. Curious how happy folks would be with this:

* QB: L. Jackson (3)
* RB: Bijan (1), T. Pollard (5), I. Pacheco (6), R. Stevenson (8) (J. Mason, T. Allgiere, R. Davis, I. Guerendo)
* WR: X. Worthy (4), J. Meyers (7), R. Pearsall (9), D. Slayton (14)
* TE: T. Mcbride (2)

Pollard was a bit of a reach in round 5 after I missed out on the Hubbard/Conner/Kamara/Henderson tier, but then surprise surprise Pacheco was around at the next turn.

Light at WR but don't mind my top 3. Usually max at 4-5 WRs in order to go after lotto ticket RBs anyways.

Don't mind it.
Not a fan of the RB or WR corps here, but that's what you would expect.
 
Just did another mock draft going with both TE and QB at the 2/3 turn. Curious how happy folks would be with this:

* QB: L. Jackson (3)
* RB: Bijan (1), T. Pollard (5), I. Pacheco (6), R. Stevenson (8) (J. Mason, T. Allgiere, R. Davis, I. Guerendo)
* WR: X. Worthy (4), J. Meyers (7), R. Pearsall (9), D. Slayton (14)
* TE: T. Mcbride (2)

Pollard was a bit of a reach in round 5 after I missed out on the Hubbard/Conner/Kamara/Henderson tier, but then surprise surprise Pacheco was around at the next turn.

Light at WR but don't mind my top 3. Usually max at 4-5 WRs in order to go after lotto ticket RBs anyways.

Don't mind it.
Not a fan of the RB or WR corps here, but that's what you would expect.
I'm not sure my RB room would look much different otherwise. At the 2/3 turn, none of Henry/Taylor/Bucky/Jacobs/C. Brown were there. The usual suspects were gone at the 4/5 turn as well like Hubbard/Conner/Kamara/Henderson. That's the problem with the 1.02 pick in 12 team leagues (which is why I'm not even considering this approach unless I go Bijan at 1.02).

WR is the difference. Instead of McBride, I could have had either L. McConkey or T. Higgins. So that's the difference really.

What's better...McBride / Worthy or say, J. Fergeson / McConkey?

I could probably make an argument either way.
 
I have a top 2 pick and if I don’t get the top three TE’s, I’m punting until Warren/Kraft/Colston combo. But will try to get a top qb in the first few rounds.
 
Well, I think I may be bailing on the both elite TE and QB strategy.

Newest ADPs on the ESPN platform are having the likes of C. Brown and B. Irving dropping a bit. It's much more likely that these two are sitting there at the turn. This makes a start of Bijan/C. Brown or J. Chase / B. Irving (or ridiculous stack of Chase and Chase) possible.

Also leaning towards taking the elite QB instead of the elite TE at the turn.

My average mock doing this looks like:

* QB: L. Jackson (3)
* RB: Bijan (1), C. Brown (2), T. Tracy (7) (R. Stevenson, T. Allgiere, R. Davis)
* WR: X. Worthy (4), G. Pickens (5), J. Meyers (6), D. Mooney
* TE: T. Warren (8), J. Fergason (11)

Waiting on TE I"m hoping to get one of the rookies (Warren and Loveland) followed by a stable floor guy (Tucker or Fergason).

Feels more balanced and there's still plenty of upside here.
 
Well, I think I may be bailing on the both elite TE and QB strategy.

Newest ADPs on the ESPN platform are having the likes of C. Brown and B. Irving dropping a bit. It's much more likely that these two are sitting there at the turn. This makes a start of Bijan/C. Brown or J. Chase / B. Irving (or ridiculous stack of Chase and Chase) possible.

Also leaning towards taking the elite QB instead of the elite TE at the turn.

My average mock doing this looks like:

* QB: L. Jackson (3)
* RB: Bijan (1), C. Brown (2), T. Tracy (7) (R. Stevenson, T. Allgiere, R. Davis)
* WR: X. Worthy (4), G. Pickens (5), J. Meyers (6), D. Mooney
* TE: T. Warren (8), J. Fergason (11)

Waiting on TE I"m hoping to get one of the rookies (Warren and Loveland) followed by a stable floor guy (Tucker or Fergason).

Feels more balanced and there's still plenty of upside here.
Looks like a great start first three rounds but I keep seeing you take Worthy in the 4th who I will not touch.
 
I have the 1.02 in a 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex 12 team PPR league and VBD/DD both suggest either Robinson or Gibbs with the first two picks. If I choose one of them, I'm hoping either Nico Collins or BJT will be available at the end of Round 2 at the turn (I don't really like the RBs at typical ADP there). If Trey McBride is available at 3.02, I'm snagging him, otherwise I'll grab Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen if available. If none of those three QBs/TE are available for me at 3.02 then I'll grab the best WR unless a really good option at RB2 falls far.

In a standard 12 team PPR league, would you rather have McBride, Jackson, or Allen at 3.02?
 
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Having to start 7 WR/RB plus the passing TDs and yardage-the way I did the math - nerfs elite/ rushing QBs quite a bit IMO. Bowers rates as a late first round pick but I'm not quite sure what the new offense is going to look like. Could be a smash. It's a little handy that the QB scoring is exactly the same in my main dynasty league so seeing 24 point base projection rates seems normal.

Base rates:
QB- 24.0 points (12 qualify)
RB/WR- 9.4 points (34 RBs/ 54 WRs) total of 7*12= 84
TE- 9.25 points (12 qualify)

The end of QB1 is a very flat tier of about 6 guys.

VORP- over 10- 1 player- CMC
Between 10-8 (7) players
7-8 (3) players
6-7 (9) players

Lamar QB1 was the 31st player on my board. 4.83 VORP.
Are you using QB 12 as your VORP baseline?

Both my home leagues play 6 point passing TD and, IMO, the advantage of having a mobile QB is more in the yardage than in the TD delta. I also use VBD and where you set your baseline will determine the relative value. I Use QB10, RB37, WR44, TE9 for the league I am currently drafting. The second league TEP (R/W flex) so is slightly different
 
Having to start 7 WR/RB plus the passing TDs and yardage-the way I did the math - nerfs elite/ rushing QBs quite a bit IMO. Bowers rates as a late first round pick but I'm not quite sure what the new offense is going to look like. Could be a smash. It's a little handy that the QB scoring is exactly the same in my main dynasty league so seeing 24 point base projection rates seems normal.

Base rates:
QB- 24.0 points (12 qualify)
RB/WR- 9.4 points (34 RBs/ 54 WRs) total of 7*12= 84
TE- 9.25 points (12 qualify)

The end of QB1 is a very flat tier of about 6 guys.

VORP- over 10- 1 player- CMC
Between 10-8 (7) players
7-8 (3) players
6-7 (9) players

Lamar QB1 was the 31st player on my board. 4.83 VORP.
Are you using QB 12 as your VORP baseline?

Both my home leagues play 6 point passing TD and, IMO, the advantage of having a mobile QB is more in the yardage than in the TD delta. I also use VBD and where you set your baseline will determine the relative value. I Use QB10, RB37, WR44, TE9 for the league I am currently drafting. The second league TEP (R/W flex) so is slightly different
Yes
 
Well, I think I may be bailing on the both elite TE and QB strategy.

Newest ADPs on the ESPN platform are having the likes of C. Brown and B. Irving dropping a bit. It's much more likely that these two are sitting there at the turn. This makes a start of Bijan/C. Brown or J. Chase / B. Irving (or ridiculous stack of Chase and Chase) possible.

Also leaning towards taking the elite QB instead of the elite TE at the turn.

My average mock doing this looks like:

* QB: L. Jackson (3)
* RB: Bijan (1), C. Brown (2), T. Tracy (7) (R. Stevenson, T. Allgiere, R. Davis)
* WR: X. Worthy (4), G. Pickens (5), J. Meyers (6), D. Mooney
* TE: T. Warren (8), J. Fergason (11)

Waiting on TE I"m hoping to get one of the rookies (Warren and Loveland) followed by a stable floor guy (Tucker or Fergason).

Feels more balanced and there's still plenty of upside here.
Looks like a great start first three rounds but I keep seeing you take Worthy in the 4th who I will not touch.
Why no Worthy?

Lots of good options on the board there. C. Ridley, Sutton. Who would you replace with?

Rice could be out for a bit.

You part of the "KC has a lousy offense" club?

I personally think that offense is getting back on track this year and Worthy will grow from his rookie year. He was a stud in the playoffs last year.
 
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I have the 1.02 in a 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex 12 team PPR league and VBD/DD both suggest either Robinson or Gibbs with the first two picks. If I choose one of them, I'm hoping either Nico Collins or BJT will be available at the end of Round 2 at the turn (I don't really like the RBs at typical ADP there). If Trey McBride is available at 3.02, I'm snagging him, otherwise I'll grab Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen if available. If none of those three QBs/TE are available for me at 3.02 then I'll grab the best WR unless a really good option at RB2 falls far.

In a standard 12 team PPR league, would you rather have McBride, Jackson, or Allen at 3.02?
Nico or BJT being there end of round 1 would be a dream.

Not going to happen.
 
Well, I think I may be bailing on the both elite TE and QB strategy.

Newest ADPs on the ESPN platform are having the likes of C. Brown and B. Irving dropping a bit. It's much more likely that these two are sitting there at the turn. This makes a start of Bijan/C. Brown or J. Chase / B. Irving (or ridiculous stack of Chase and Chase) possible.

Also leaning towards taking the elite QB instead of the elite TE at the turn.

My average mock doing this looks like:

* QB: L. Jackson (3)
* RB: Bijan (1), C. Brown (2), T. Tracy (7) (R. Stevenson, T. Allgiere, R. Davis)
* WR: X. Worthy (4), G. Pickens (5), J. Meyers (6), D. Mooney
* TE: T. Warren (8), J. Fergason (11)

Waiting on TE I"m hoping to get one of the rookies (Warren and Loveland) followed by a stable floor guy (Tucker or Fergason).

Feels more balanced and there's still plenty of upside here.
Looks like a great start first three rounds but I keep seeing you take Worthy in the 4th who I will not touch.
Why no Worthy?

Rice could be out for a bit.

You part of the "KC has a lousy offense" club?

I personally think that offense is getting back on track this year and Worthy will grow from his rookie year. He was a stud in the playoffs last year.
Seems like a gimmick player to me and don't trust him at all
 
I have the 1.02 in a 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex 12 team PPR league and VBD/DD both suggest either Robinson or Gibbs with the first two picks. If I choose one of them, I'm hoping either Nico Collins or BJT will be available at the Round 2/3 turn (I don't really like the RBs at typical ADP there). If Trey McBride is available at 3.2, I'm snagging him, otherwise I'll grab Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen if available. If none of those three QBs/TE are available then I'll grab the best WR unless a really good option at RB2 falls far.

I have the 1.02 in a 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1Flex 12 team PPR league and VBD/DD both suggest either Robinson or Gibbs with the first two picks. If I choose one of them, I'm hoping either Nico Collins or BJT will be available at the end of Round 2 at the turn (I don't really like the RBs at typical ADP there). If Trey McBride is available at 3.02, I'm snagging him, otherwise I'll grab Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen if available. If none of those three QBs/TE are available for me at 3.02 then I'll grab the best WR unless a really good option at RB2 falls far.

In a standard 12 team PPR league, would you rather have McBride, Jackson, or Allen at 3.02?
Nico or BJT being there end of round 1 would be a dream.

Not going to happen.
I meant end of round 2, but turns out that was a dream too. WRs aren't as valuable in this league, as we only have to start 2, but many of the other owners loaded up early on WR instead of RB.
 
The answer is to join an auction league. Got elite QB/TE!

Lamar Jackson
Trevor Lawrence

Chase Brown
TreVeyon Henderson
Pacheco
Austin Ekeler

Nico Collins
Travis Hunter
Davante Adams
Stefon Diggs

Trey McBride
 
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I ended up with
QB: Lamar , Penix
RB: Hampton, Charbonet, Mason, Allgeier, Tuten, Wright, Sampson, Shipley
WR: CeeDee, Egbuka, Hunter, Diggs
TE: Bowers, Likely
 
I ended up with
QB: Lamar , Penix
RB: Hampton, Charbonet, Mason, Allgeier, Tuten, Wright, Sampson, Shipley
WR: CeeDee, Egbuka, Hunter, Diggs
TE: Bowers, Likely
I would be very wary of that running back room walking into week 1.
Yeah. Might be dicey early but you can't be strong every where. Hopefully my advantage at QB and TE will be enough to hold over until one of those lottery tickets cashes
 
I ended up with
QB: Lamar , Penix
RB: Hampton, Charbonet, Mason, Allgeier, Tuten, Wright, Sampson, Shipley
WR: CeeDee, Egbuka, Hunter, Diggs
TE: Bowers, Likely

Early QB/TE really require RB in round 1 this year. Having to wait until round 4 to draft your first RB is rough. At least you made up for it by drafting a ton of RBs late.

Meanwhile WR is deep enough in rounds 4-7 to get a decent squad.
 
I ended up with
QB: Lamar , Penix
RB: Hampton, Charbonet, Mason, Allgeier, Tuten, Wright, Sampson, Shipley
WR: CeeDee, Egbuka, Hunter, Diggs
TE: Bowers, Likely
So I assume you went CD, Bowers, Lamar right?

And Hampton was available at the 4/5 turn? That never happens. Maybe it's only a 10 team league. You have to count your lucky stars he was there because that RB room looks scary.

That's why I just can't do this unless I get Bijan at 1.02.
 
I ended up with
QB: Lamar , Penix
RB: Hampton, Charbonet, Mason, Allgeier, Tuten, Wright, Sampson, Shipley
WR: CeeDee, Egbuka, Hunter, Diggs
TE: Bowers, Likely

Early QB/TE really require RB in round 1 this year. Having to wait until round 4 to draft your first RB is rough. At least you made up for it by drafting a ton of RBs late.

Meanwhile WR is deep enough in rounds 4-7 to get a decent squad.
Yup. Not at all doable unless you get Bijan/Barkley/Gibbs.

I'm still tempted. And to be honest there's a chance I could be forced into this. Did a mock yesterday and after taking McBride at 2.11 and thinking I'd go RB or WR at 3.02 all of the round 2 RBs were gone along with McConkey and Higgins. I was looking at T. Hill. Nope. Went Lamar.

What makes this strategy attractive is what is available in round 3...which to me is a bunch of meh.

T. Hill? He's an avoid for me.

K. Williams? Stafford injury along with O line injury makes me nervous about that entire offense.

T. McLaurin? Obvious reason to be concerned.

JSN? Too early to take him at 3.02 and wont make it to 4.11 anyway.

Hampton? Too early again.

Honestly, stacking these guys up against the QBs is a new brainer to me. Clear spot to take the elite QB.

Hell, I'd even consider Kittle at 3.02 vs. these guys.
 
I ended up with
QB: Lamar , Penix
RB: Hampton, Charbonet, Mason, Allgeier, Tuten, Wright, Sampson, Shipley
WR: CeeDee, Egbuka, Hunter, Diggs
TE: Bowers, Likely
So I assume you went CD, Bowers, Lamar right?

And Hampton was available at the 4/5 turn? That never happens. Maybe it's only a 10 team league. You have to count your lucky stars he was there because that RB room looks scary.

That's why I just can't do this unless I get Bijan at 1.02.
Agreed… I’d be interested to know what RBs were available when he drafted Lamar. And what QBs were available when he drafted Hampton.

I am not personally high on Hampton enough to think he’s my bonafide number one RB. Heck, he could be in a bonafide time share with Harris from day one for all we know.
 
I ended up with
QB: Lamar , Penix
RB: Hampton, Charbonet, Mason, Allgeier, Tuten, Wright, Sampson, Shipley
WR: CeeDee, Egbuka, Hunter, Diggs
TE: Bowers, Likely
So I assume you went CD, Bowers, Lamar right?

And Hampton was available at the 4/5 turn? That never happens. Maybe it's only a 10 team league. You have to count your lucky stars he was there because that RB room looks scary.

That's why I just can't do this unless I get Bijan at 1.02.
Agrees… I’d be interested to know what RBs were available when he drafted Lamar. And what QBs were available when he drafted Hampton.

I am not personally high on Hampton enough to think he’s my bonafide number one RB. Heck, he could be in a bonafide time share with Harris from day one for all we know.
Yeah the latest Najeh news would make me uncomfortable as a Hampton owner. Him being available week 1 would be a serious rug pull.
 
I went McCaffrey, Cook, Hill from 4th slot in a 12 teamer. Hampton was my target in the 3rd and he went 2.5 which I think is a little crazy.

I would have had a very tough decision on Allen vs Tyreek but the 3 slot was late to the draft and his first 3 auto picks were Bijan, Lamar, Allen LOL
 
I went McCaffrey, Cook, Hill from 4th slot in a 12 teamer. Hampton was my target in the 3rd and he went 2.5 which I think is a little crazy.

I would have had a very tough decision on Allen vs Tyreek but the 3 slot was late to the draft and his first 3 auto picks were Bijan, Lamar, Allen LOL
I went CMC, Allen, Hampton from the 7 slot in a 12 teamer yesterday. Had to go WR heavy after than and went JSN (4th), Pearsall (6th), Hunter (7th), Jayden Reed (9th).
 
I went WRx3 with the 1.01 spot. League went a bit ham on RB so the value was @ WR. Always draft BPA. It’s pretty tough going TE and QB at the 2/3 turn. It just puts you way behind in the other crucial positions.
 
I went McCaffrey, Cook, Hill from 4th slot in a 12 teamer. Hampton was my target in the 3rd and he went 2.5 which I think is a little crazy.

I would have had a very tough decision on Allen vs Tyreek but the 3 slot was late to the draft and his first 3 auto picks were Bijan, Lamar, Allen LOL
I went CMC, Allen, Hampton from the 7 slot in a 12 teamer yesterday. Had to go WR heavy after than and went JSN (4th), Pearsall (6th), Hunter (7th), Jayden Reed (9th).
Yeah as I mocked it out a lot, I generally liked my teams best when I could go 3-4 RBs to start or take Allen in the 3rd with 3 RBs in first four. Feels like a lot of WR value in mid rounds and RBs really fall off.
 

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