1.01 Pick Strategy thread - PPR 12 team (3 Viewers)

[Scoresman]

Didn't see a thread for the first pick, and I just drew this in one of my home leagues.

Still undecided between Bijan and Jamar first overall.

What's more interesting is the first turn. Tempting to go Elite QB/TE in this particular league because it's very much a home league with values always falling at all positions. In a league following ADP more closely, I probably ideally go RB/RB after drafting Chase.

What you got?

 

[Scoresman]

Specific question.

In mocks I often find myself in a position where I drafted Jamar Chase first, then am looking right at Chase Brown at 2.12.

How do people feel about a WR/RB stack on the same team like this?

 

[RaidersAreOne]

I think Chase is the easy choice at 1.01 this year. However if you decided to do your QB/TE run early then waiting for a RB until the 4th is scary business.

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

chase, i'd also do gibbs over bijan

 

[BLOCKED_PUNT]

How do people feel about a WR/RB stack on the same team like this?

i'd be happy

 

[cheese]

If Bowers is an option, Bowers. I like elite QB in these types of leagues as well, but the 1 spot is also a great spot to land Hurts at the 4/5. FWIW, Chase and McBride play each other in the fantasy finals.

Chase Brown is rising by the minute so he might be gone, but I do generally like pairing RB/WR as a slight boost to both.

 

[Schmeabs]

I would be ecstatic to get Chase Brown at 2-12. I have pick 2 in my 12 team PPR league and the issue I have with taking Chase if available is the rb options at 2/3 look horrible. I am assuming BRob, Gibbs, Barkley, Henry, McCaffrey, Jacobs, Taylor, Jeanty, Irving, Brown, Achane and K Williams will be gone.

 

[Scoresman]

I did some mocks based on both ADP and historical "home league" tendencies I've seen and these are some sample starting lineups I have come up with. Not sure which I like best yet

Jamarr Chase + Elite TE

QB	Justin Fields
RB	Chase Brown
RB	TreVeyon Henderson
WR	Ja'Marr Chase
WR	Xavier Worthy
Flex	Tetairoa McMillan
TE	Trey McBride

Bijan + elite QB/TE

QB	Lamar Jackson
RB	Bijan Robinson
RB	James Conner
WR	Tetairoa McMillan
WR	Calvin Ridley
Flex	George Pickens
TE	Trey McBride

No Elite QB/TE early

QB	Bo Nix
RB	Chase Brown
RB	Bucky Irving
WR	Ja'Marr Chase
WR	Devonta Smith
Flex	Chuba Hubbard
TE	Mark Andrews

 

[Chaka]

I think mocking round one is a lesson in futility. I'd only mock seven rounds if you just enjoy enjoy the process of mocking.

Whatever you mock will look nothing like the team you actually draft.

It can maybe help you formulate opinions about which player you would take between two specific players but, even that could easily change on draft day.

 

[Scoresman]

I think mocking round one is a lesson in futility. I'd only mock seven rounds if you just enjoy enjoy the process of mocking.

Whatever you mock will look nothing like the team you actually draft.

It can maybe help you formulate opinions about which player you would take between two specific players but, even that could easily change on draft day.

I mock in excel using my cheat sheet and historical draft vs. ADP trends for my league.

So for example, for picks 2.12 and 3.01, I mark off on my rankings who is likely to be drafted by those picks and come up with options from there. Same for every other turn.

If my team looks different from mocks, it's because really good value falls. My mocks are usually worst case scenarios I come up with.

In the FBG home leagues, those were really competitive, so I found myself in a lot of those worst case situations that I encountered when mocking.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Chase Brown is now going Mid 2nd in a lot of redrafts, people feel like he's a safe option right now
You might see JTaylor on the 2/3 turn

You could go RB in the 1st round
Go Hill/Adams on the 2/3 turn, or take Chase, grab one of these two WRs and grab your first RB on the turn, there's many names, you don't have to take Brown
Everyone is drafting based on the numbers last season, same as always. It's Ok to reach ahead on the 2/3 turn, maybe you prefer James Cook or someone else at RB

 

[kyoun1e]

Didn't see a thread for the first pick, and I just drew this in one of my home leagues.

Still undecided between Bijan and Jamar first overall.

What's more interesting is the first turn. Tempting to go Elite QB/TE in this particular league because it's very much a home league with values always falling at all positions. In a league following ADP more closely, I probably ideally go RB/RB after drafting Chase.

What you got?

I have pick 1.02 and my decision will be made for me. Whichever of Bijan or Chase is left, I'll take.

The 2/3 turn is driving me nuts because I am SO tempted to go elite TE AND elite QB. High risk/high reward. Plenty of WR value seems to drop at each of the next turns, but not so much when it comes to RB value. I keep getting swiped at the 4/5 for Conner/Henderson/Hubbard types and then Pacheco/Pollard/Tracy in 6/7. It is not out of the realm of possibility to be stuck with only Bijan as your RB after 7 rounds. Not ideal.

The safest route is most likely take either the elite TE or QB, but not both. I think my decision making tree could be if Bowers/McBride in late round 2, take em and punt QB until I hit Purdy. If both TEs taken, take best available RB/WR and then go elite QB in the third. I see way more QB value late vs. TE value (unless you are 100% certain T. Warren or C. Loveland are the next Bowers).

 

[kyoun1e]

I did some mocks based on both ADP and historical "home league" tendencies I've seen and these are some sample starting lineups I have come up with. Not sure which I like best yet

Jamarr Chase + Elite TE

QB	Justin Fields
RB	Chase Brown
RB	TreVeyon Henderson
WR	Ja'Marr Chase
WR	Xavier Worthy
Flex	Tetairoa McMillan
TE	Trey McBride

Bijan + elite QB/TE

QB	Lamar Jackson
RB	Bijan Robinson
RB	James Conner
WR	Tetairoa McMillan
WR	Calvin Ridley
Flex	George Pickens
TE	Trey McBride

No Elite QB/TE early

QB	Bo Nix
RB	Chase Brown
RB	Bucky Irving
WR	Ja'Marr Chase
WR	Devonta Smith
Flex	Chuba Hubbard
TE	Mark Andrews

Lol. You must be me. I've been doing these combos endlessly.

Still can't decide what I want to do.

Elite TE AND QB is risky, but could pay off huge if the bozos in your league let value drop. It does become easier rounds 4 onward if you already have a TE and QB. Can just go back and forth filling up your RBs/WRs. RBs tend to dry up quickly though. Not sure I could go elite TE/elite QB unless I first had Bijan.

 

[GoBirds]

If you pick one at the turn, elite TE or QB?

 

[kyoun1e]

If you pick one at the turn, elite TE or QB?

I'd go TE.

Feel like there is greater value/upside in QB later on.

If I punt on TE I feel like I'm going all the way to Loveland/Warren.

 

[Scoresman]

If you pick one at the turn, elite TE or QB?

I'm 50/50, leaning QB.

One thing no one talks about when discussing early QB is how predictable they are. We know (barring injury) who the top 3-4 QBs will be. Their rushing upside provides such a consistent floor that we can say this. That predictability has a lot of value when drafting. Yes, there are many late QBs who can make the jump, but a lot of them have potential for bad outcomes that the top guys dont really have.

TEs are close, but not really. Bowers has one year sample size in a questionable offense. McBride has a TD allergy. Kittle is very consistent but has injury concerns.

Bottom line for me though, I have a short list of RBs and WRs that I'd like to see at the 2/3 turn. If they are all taken, I have no issue going BOTH QB/TE there. This is why I lean RB with #1 overall. Much easier to do this if you have a good RB already.

 

[GoBirds]

If you pick one at the turn, elite TE or QB?

I'd go TE.

Feel like there is greater value/upside in QB later on.

If I punt on TE I feel like I'm going all the way to Loveland/Warren.

Is Tucker Kraft another late high upside option? Noticed my league some top TE keepers.

 

[kyoun1e]

If you pick one at the turn, elite TE or QB?

I'd go TE.

Feel like there is greater value/upside in QB later on.

If I punt on TE I feel like I'm going all the way to Loveland/Warren.

Is Tucker Kraft another late high upside option? Noticed my league some top TE keepers.

He's usually my first stop in mocks.

If I miss out on the big three, my ideal strategy is a Kraft and either Warren/Loveland combo.

 

[BigJim®]

I've been tracking mock drafts and @ 1.1 I'm almost always going J.Chase and RB/RB at 2nd/3rd turn. I did some mocks going RB @ 1.1 and I really don't trust WRs at 2/3 as much as I trust RBs at 2/3.

 

[Scoresman]

I've been tracking mock drafts and @ 1.1 I'm almost always going J.Chase and RB/RB at 2nd/3rd turn. I did some mocks going RB @ 1.1 and I really don't trust WRs at 2/3 as much as I trust RBs at 2/3.

Same this is why I think going QB/TE early works in this case. You start out Bijan/Lamar/McBride then hammer all that amazing WR talent in rounds 5+. Tet, Egbuka, Pickens, Worthy, Devonta, Ridley, etc. WR is so deep in that part of the draft.

 

[kyoun1e]

I've been tracking mock drafts and @ 1.1 I'm almost always going J.Chase and RB/RB at 2nd/3rd turn. I did some mocks going RB @ 1.1 and I really don't trust WRs at 2/3 as much as I trust RBs at 2/3.

Same this is why I think going QB/TE early works in this case. You start out Bijan/Lamar/McBride then hammer all that amazing WR talent in rounds 5+. Tet, Egbuka, Pickens, Worthy, Devonta, Ridley, etc. WR is so deep in that part of the draft.

Agree there are plenty of WRs with this strategy. I find Worthy/Pickens/J. Meyers/The rookies/Pearsall all available to build a nice core.

RBs...not so much.

I keep ending up with T. Tracy as my #2 RB. Or worse. It's like Bijan, Tracy, and a bunch of lotto tickets.

 

[Scoresman]

I've been tracking mock drafts and @ 1.1 I'm almost always going J.Chase and RB/RB at 2nd/3rd turn. I did some mocks going RB @ 1.1 and I really don't trust WRs at 2/3 as much as I trust RBs at 2/3.

Same this is why I think going QB/TE early works in this case. You start out Bijan/Lamar/McBride then hammer all that amazing WR talent in rounds 5+. Tet, Egbuka, Pickens, Worthy, Devonta, Ridley, etc. WR is so deep in that part of the draft.

Agree there are plenty of WRs with this strategy. I find Worthy/Pickens/J. Meyers/The rookies/Pearsall all available to build a nice core.

RBs...not so much.

I keep ending up with T. Tracy as my #2 RB. Or worse. It's like Bijan, Tracy, and a bunch of lotto tickets.

Take TreVeyon or RJ in the fourth for your #2. Unless they are going earlier.

 

[Schmeabs]

I've been tracking mock drafts and @ 1.1 I'm almost always going J.Chase and RB/RB at 2nd/3rd turn. I did some mocks going RB @ 1.1 and I really don't trust WRs at 2/3 as much as I trust RBs at 2/3.

What RBs are you seeing on 2/3 turn?

 

[kyoun1e]

I've been tracking mock drafts and @ 1.1 I'm almost always going J.Chase and RB/RB at 2nd/3rd turn. I did some mocks going RB @ 1.1 and I really don't trust WRs at 2/3 as much as I trust RBs at 2/3.

Same this is why I think going QB/TE early works in this case. You start out Bijan/Lamar/McBride then hammer all that amazing WR talent in rounds 5+. Tet, Egbuka, Pickens, Worthy, Devonta, Ridley, etc. WR is so deep in that part of the draft.

Agree there are plenty of WRs with this strategy. I find Worthy/Pickens/J. Meyers/The rookies/Pearsall all available to build a nice core.

RBs...not so much.

I keep ending up with T. Tracy as my #2 RB. Or worse. It's like Bijan, Tracy, and a bunch of lotto tickets.

Take TreVeyon or RJ in the fourth for your #2. Unless they are going earlier.

T. Henderson always gone now. Going in the third.

RJ definitely available, but damn...at the 4/5 turn??? That seems early.

 

[kyoun1e]

I've been tracking mock drafts and @ 1.1 I'm almost always going J.Chase and RB/RB at 2nd/3rd turn. I did some mocks going RB @ 1.1 and I really don't trust WRs at 2/3 as much as I trust RBs at 2/3.

What RBs are you seeing on 2/3 turn?

C. Brown was going there, now earlier.

I see Bucky slipping sometimes into the turn. Henry/Taylor/Jacobs all seem to fly off the board prior.

 

[Schmeabs]

I've been tracking mock drafts and @ 1.1 I'm almost always going J.Chase and RB/RB at 2nd/3rd turn. I did some mocks going RB @ 1.1 and I really don't trust WRs at 2/3 as much as I trust RBs at 2/3.

What RBs are you seeing on 2/3 turn?

C. Brown was going there, now earlier.

I see Bucky slipping sometimes into the turn. Henry/Taylor/Jacobs all seem to fly off the board prior.

I doubt Brown or Bucky will be available at turn. That is why I think I have to go RB in round 1. I hate the RB options at 2/3 turn.

 

[BigJim®]

Same this is why I think going QB/TE early works in this case.

Meh, to each his own but the RB depth beyond 2/3 (particularly for RB1) is not something I'd wait for 4th/5th turn on. I have QB/TEs (particularly QB) I'd tolerate as late as 8/9. I'd definitely want WR1 and RB1, at a minimum, solved by pick 3.1 if I'm in that slot.

 

[kyoun1e]

I've been tracking mock drafts and @ 1.1 I'm almost always going J.Chase and RB/RB at 2nd/3rd turn. I did some mocks going RB @ 1.1 and I really don't trust WRs at 2/3 as much as I trust RBs at 2/3.

What RBs are you seeing on 2/3 turn?

C. Brown was going there, now earlier.

I see Bucky slipping sometimes into the turn. Henry/Taylor/Jacobs all seem to fly off the board prior.

I doubt Brown or Bucky will be available at turn. That is why I think I have to go RB in round 1. I hate the RB options at 2/3 turn.

Exactly.

If I go J. Chase at 1.02 that will make RB tough. Hoping for Bijan.

 

[BigJim®]

I've been tracking mock drafts and @ 1.1 I'm almost always going J.Chase and RB/RB at 2nd/3rd turn. I did some mocks going RB @ 1.1 and I really don't trust WRs at 2/3 as much as I trust RBs at 2/3.

What RBs are you seeing on 2/3 turn?

C Brown/Taylor/Jacobs/Irving sometimes, K.Williams frequently, O Hampton always. Totally subjective opinion for me, but I'd feel much better taking 2 of whomever at RB than having G.Wilson/THill/THiggins as WR1 after starting with Bijan/Saquan. Higgins is the only one with an offense I trust. YMMV.

 

[Schmeabs]

I've been tracking mock drafts and @ 1.1 I'm almost always going J.Chase and RB/RB at 2nd/3rd turn. I did some mocks going RB @ 1.1 and I really don't trust WRs at 2/3 as much as I trust RBs at 2/3.

What RBs are you seeing on 2/3 turn?

C. Brown was going there, now earlier.

I see Bucky slipping sometimes into the turn. Henry/Taylor/Jacobs all seem to fly off the board prior.

I doubt Brown or Bucky will be available at turn. That is why I think I have to go RB in round 1. I hate the RB options at 2/3 turn.

Exactly.

If I go J. Chase at 1.02 that will make RB tough. Hoping for Bijan.

This is making me consider taking Gibbs at 1.02 if Bijan goes 1.01. Hate to pass on Chase but I just like QB/WR/TE much better at 2/3 turn than the Kyren/Cook/Hall type rbs

 

[Scoresman]

My short list of RBs/WRs I would draft before going elite QB/TE.

Chase Brown
Bucky Irving
Josh Jacobs
Jonathan Taylor

Ladd McConkey
AJ Brown

If just 2 from that list are there I wait on QB/TE. If one is there, I take them+QB. If none are there, it's QB/TE or bust. Giddyup.

 

[kyoun1e]

My short list of RBs/WRs I would draft before going elite QB/TE.

Chase Brown
Bucky Irving
Josh Jacobs
Jonathan Taylor

Ladd McConkey
AJ Brown

If just 2 from that list are there I wait on QB/TE. If one is there, I take them+QB. If none are there, it's QB/TE or bust. Giddyup.

Think we are aligned. Agree completely. The IF / THEN statements are starting to become clearer.

Just did a mock and I was planning on going TE/QB at the turn and Bucky was sitting there. Grabbed him. Went L. Jackson at the turn.

After taking Bijan at 1.02, ended up with Worthy, Pickens, Meyers as my top 3 WRs. That could work.

Then grabbed T. Kraft and J. Fergasun at TE late.

 

[msudaisy26]

Chase first and then you will get two of these backs at the 2/3 turn

Chase, Omarion, Jacobs, Kyren, Taylor, and Bucky.

At the 4/5 there is a lot of very good wr 2 types or Cook, Walker and maybe Henderson could be available.

 

[Scoresman]

Chase first and then you will get two of these backs at the 2/3 turn

Chase, Omarion, Jacobs, Kyren, Taylor, and Bucky.

At the 4/5 there is a lot of very good wr 2 types or Cook, Walker and maybe Henderson could be available.

That's getting to be ridiculously too high for Omarion. Kyren has little pass catching upside so I tend to avoid at ADP.

 

[kyoun1e]

Chase first and then you will get two of these backs at the 2/3 turn

Chase, Omarion, Jacobs, Kyren, Taylor, and Bucky.

At the 4/5 there is a lot of very good wr 2 types or Cook, Walker and maybe Henderson could be available.

Doubt Chase will be there. Same with Taylor and Jacobs.

Bucky definitely possible.

Omarion a bit of a reach that early. Kyren I'm fading with O line injuries and Stafford back issue.

 

[msudaisy26]

Chase first and then you will get two of these backs at the 2/3 turn

Chase, Omarion, Jacobs, Kyren, Taylor, and Bucky.

At the 4/5 there is a lot of very good wr 2 types or Cook, Walker and maybe Henderson could be available.

Doubt Chase will be there. Same with Taylor and Jacobs.

Bucky definitely possible.

Omarion a bit of a reach that early. Kyren I'm fading with O line injuries and Stafford back issue.

Literally did an FFPC draft on Sunday where I was at the 3 spot. Went Lamb and got Jacobs at 22 and Taylor at 27. Hampton went 23, Kyren went 29, Bucky went 20 and Chase 19., even Achane went 21 with the injury. All those guys are in that range.

 

[kyoun1e]

Chase first and then you will get two of these backs at the 2/3 turn

Chase, Omarion, Jacobs, Kyren, Taylor, and Bucky.

At the 4/5 there is a lot of very good wr 2 types or Cook, Walker and maybe Henderson could be available.

Doubt Chase will be there. Same with Taylor and Jacobs.

Bucky definitely possible.

Omarion a bit of a reach that early. Kyren I'm fading with O line injuries and Stafford back issue.

Literally did an FFPC draft on Sunday where I was at the 3 spot. Went Lamb and got Jacobs at 22 and Taylor at 27. Hampton went 23, Kyren went 29, Bucky went 20 and Chase 19., even Achane went 21 with the injury. All those guys are in that range.

Wow. I'd be curious who was drafted early.

 

[msudaisy26]

Chase first and then you will get two of these backs at the 2/3 turn

Chase, Omarion, Jacobs, Kyren, Taylor, and Bucky.

At the 4/5 there is a lot of very good wr 2 types or Cook, Walker and maybe Henderson could be available.

Doubt Chase will be there. Same with Taylor and Jacobs.

Bucky definitely possible.

Omarion a bit of a reach that early. Kyren I'm fading with O line injuries and Stafford back issue.

Literally did an FFPC draft on Sunday where I was at the 3 spot. Went Lamb and got Jacobs at 22 and Taylor at 27. Hampton went 23, Kyren went 29, Bucky went 20 and Chase 19., even Achane went 21 with the injury. All those guys are in that range.

Wow. I'd be curious who was drafted early.

Do you mean everyone or just rbs?