Drafting from the Middle slots (1 Viewer)

[coltsnut]

Drafting from the middle this year is a little tricky, I think. You are faced with the dilemna of grabbing the next best RB behind the so-called "big 4", or bucking the trend and taking the #1 WR or #1 QB. By landing one of Michael Turner or Frank Gore, you are getting a solid RB to start your draft with, and both have the potential to be top 3 RBs, IMO...so there isn't much risk with either. However, some sharks are taking Andre Johnson or Aaron Rodgers (in leagues that award 6 pt per QB Td pass) at picks 5-6 in an attempt to get a leg up on the guys who drafted a stud RB in the first 4 picks. I have been thinking a lot about that option, as having an advantage at QB or WR over the guy they will be getting in the 2nd or 3rd would offset their advantage over you at RB in the 1st round. However, most drafts follow a snake draft format, so in the 2nd round you may be able to get a slight advantage at WR or QB with your 2nd round pick, albeit not much....but how big is their advantage at RB, reallly?

Possible scenarios

1st round pick: RB Gore vs CJ, MJD, AP, Rice (their 1st rd rb)

2nd round pick: QB Romo vs Rivers (their 2nd rd qb)

1st round pick: WR Andre Johnson vs Jennings (their 2nd rd wr)

2nd round pick: RB Grant vs CJ, MJD, AP, Rice (their 1st rd rb)

1st round pick: QB Rodgers vs Rivers (their 2nd or 3rd rd qb)

2nd round pick: RB Benson vs CJ, MJD, AP, Rice (their 1st rd rb)

Now, I have no idea if this is how things will play out, as owners may wait later to get QBs, RBs, WRs, etc... But I'm just trying to think about how we, in the middle, can get a leg up.

Any opinions on this? I'm at work so I'm limited as to how much I can type at once....but I am trying to get the ball rolling on this.

 

[coltsnut]

I think the problem with taking Rodgers in the 1st is the WR you will have as your #1 will be a guy like Ochocinco, S. Smith or something similar in the 3rd or a #1 RB like Thomas, Best, Stewart or similar in the 3rd if you go WR in 2nd. Is the advantage you gain at QB enough to offset this?

Would be nice to get that 25 pt/g from your QB each week though.

 

[Black]

You should go WR-WR-WR-RB-TE-RB-QB-RB-RB-K-DEF



AAAAAAAARG!!!

 

[rocketsauce]

Yeah, you want an advantage, zag when others are zigging. WR-WR-WR, or at least WR-WR-something.

I drafted at 8 (in the first round anyway -- bunch of trades every other round) in my 12 team PPR and am stoked to head into week 1 with these starting 3 WRs:

Miles Austin, Roddy White, Hakeem Nicks

Addai & McCoy are my backs -- they aren't sexy first round guys, but they'll get touches to keep my team competitive every week with those WRs, even if my lottery ticket at QB/TE (Kolb/Celek) don't quite work out.

 

[Zoomanji]

some sharks are taking Aaron Rodgers (in leagues that award 6 pt per QB Td pass) at picks 5-6 in an attempt to get a leg up

they aren't sharks then

 

[Deuce'sWild]

some sharks are taking Aaron Rodgers (in leagues that award 6 pt per QB Td pass) at picks 5-6 in an attempt to get a leg up

they aren't sharks then

The difference between Rodgers and the 5th or 6th QB is about 50 pts (according to FBG projections). The difference between Grant and the avg of CJ, ADP, MJD, and Rice is about 70 pts....so I think you are right. Can't make up the loss at RB

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

1. Rodgers, 2. Finley, 3. Bush

 

[SCT]

Anyone picking Rivers in the 2nd round (6patd or not) is no shark.

That said, I did about 25 mocks from the 5 spot, and decided that I should take RB (Turner), then you really HAVE to take WR in the 2nd round or the drop off is pretty steep at that position. You can get a quality rb2 rounds 3-5 and slough off QB till Cutlerish types or you can grab Romo in the 3rd or Schaub/Rivers in the late 3rd/4th. I ended up going Turner, Marshall, Colston, Schaub.

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I draw the line after the top 6 RBs are off the board. I view Gore and Turner as juuuust behind the top 4 RBs, so I don't think you miss that much if you can land anyone at RB in the top 6. However, there is a CLEAR drop off IMO to the next tier of SJax, Mendenhall, Mathews, Deangelo, Grant, etc. So, after Gore/Turner, I'd be looking to go WR/WR, QB/WR, WR/QB, or WR/RB.

BTW I'm strictly talking non-PPR

 

[bigmiiiiike]

I draw the line after the top 6 RBs are off the board. I view Gore and Turner as juuuust behind the top 4 RBs, so I don't think you miss that much if you can land anyone at RB in the top 6. However, there is a CLEAR drop off IMO to the next tier of SJax, Mendenhall, Mathews, Deangelo, Grant, etc. So, after Gore/Turner, I'd be looking to go WR/WR, QB/WR, WR/QB, or WR/RB.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

Anyone picking Rivers in the 2nd round (6patd or not) is no shark.That said, I did about 25 mocks from the 5 spot, and decided that I should take RB (Turner), then you really HAVE to take WR in the 2nd round or the drop off is pretty steep at that position. You can get a quality rb2 rounds 3-5 and slough off QB till Cutlerish types or you can grab Romo in the 3rd or Schaub/Rivers in the late 3rd/4th. I ended up going Turner, Marshall, Colston, Schaub.

I don't think you HAVE to take a WR in the 2nd, you try to see the value in picks. But, I do think you will be at a SERIOUS disadvantage if you don't have a TOP 7 QB this year. So, if you think the TOP 7 Qbs will be gone before you pick in the middle of the 3rd, you may want to get a Romo in the 2nd and a Steve Smith in 3rd, instead of a Jennings in the 2nd and a Cutler in the 6th.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

I'm debating this very topic before my draft tonight. I have the 7th pick. I'm hoping that Turner slides to me and will consider AJ if he doesn't. Gore is also an option.

I've mapped out a scenario where I would take Rodgers in the 1st and it just doesn't play out very well, IMO.

But my league is a bit of a crapshoot so the draft could play out 100 different ways. I won't be shocked to see Rodgers and Brees go before my pick at 7 but it could also be 6 straight RBs. Or, AJ could go in the top 5.

My preference at this point is to get Turner in the 1st and then follow it up with a WR like Calvin Johnson in the 2nd and maybe a QB in the 3rd if there is an early run. Otherwise, another WR in the 3rd and RBs in the 4th and 5th.'

This is 6 points for passing TDs and 0.5 PPR for reference.

 

[Soxwhat]

In my situation, AJ is my first round pick. Seeing as this is heavy PPR (1pt per) I am seriously considering going WR/WR/WR if the value is there. Roddy is the target in the 2nd, and there is a chance, albeit small, that CJ/Marshall are there in the 3rd. I'm just not sold on any of the RB's available. Do you go with the safe picks of Benson or Grant, or roll the dice with Charles or PT. Do I feel better with any of them over waiting until the 4th to get the upside of Best? Then again, I do like taking a safe RB in the 3rd and going upside the rest of the way. I think being in the middle and not having one of the top 4-5 backs, value will dictate your draft more so than those who land those top guys.

Based on the mocks I have done, WR's fly off the board early and in the middle rounds you're left starting at a plethora of RB's to choose from. If you choose the right ones out of the pack, you've got a great edge with your 3 stud WR's.

 

[redaddy25]

some sharks are taking Aaron Rodgers (in leagues that award 6 pt per QB Td pass) at picks 5-6 in an attempt to get a leg up

they aren't sharks then

The difference between Rodgers and the 5th or 6th QB is about 50 pts (according to FBG projections). The difference between Grant and the avg of CJ, ADP, MJD, and Rice is about 70 pts....so I think you are right. Can't make up the loss at RB

One problem with using this as your point is that Rodgers scored 70 more points than his current FBG projections last season (at least in my 6 pt per TD league). So even if he were to match last season or come close then he is roughly 100-120 points over the 5th-6th QB. The middle tier RB's that scored 200-220 (using my PPR scoring) last season are the same ones projected at 200-220 again this year.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I'm debating this very topic before my draft tonight. I have the 7th pick. I'm hoping that Turner slides to me and will consider AJ if he doesn't. Gore is also an option.

I've mapped out a scenario where I would take Rodgers in the 1st and it just doesn't play out very well, IMO.

But my league is a bit of a crapshoot so the draft could play out 100 different ways. I won't be shocked to see Rodgers and Brees go before my pick at 7 but it could also be 6 straight RBs. Or, AJ could go in the top 5.

My preference at this point is to get Turner in the 1st and then follow it up with a WR like Calvin Johnson in the 2nd and maybe a QB in the 3rd if there is an early run. Otherwise, another WR in the 3rd and RBs in the 4th and 5th.'

This is 6 points for passing TDs and 0.5 PPR for reference.

FWIW, this is the strategy I hope to employ also. I think it's the safest bet, and I like Turner and Calvin as guys who are pretty safe but also have big play potential.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

FWIW, this is the strategy I hope to employ also. I think it's the safest bet, and I like Turner and Calvin as guys who are pretty safe but also have big play potential.

Agreed. Both are threats to score at any time. If Turner is gone then I'm probably leaning toward WR/WR.We only start 2 RB and 2 WR but have a flex spot for either. That tends to lead to some pretty heavy RB slanted rosters because everyone seems to want to start 3 RBs but with most of the RBs after the first 5-6 being pretty similar, I'm comfortable rolling the dice on guys like Forte and Best after the first 3 rounds.

 

[thekidd2009]

I draw the line after the top 6 RBs are off the board. I view Gore and Turner as juuuust behind the top 4 RBs, so I don't think you miss that much if you can land anyone at RB in the top 6. However, there is a CLEAR drop off IMO to the next tier of SJax, Mendenhall, Mathews, Deangelo, Grant, etc. So, after Gore/Turner, I'd be looking to go WR/WR, QB/WR, WR/QB, or WR/RB.BTW I'm strictly talking non-PPR

I agree that if you can't get a top 6 running back, you have to go WR. I think drafting from the middle is alot easier then getting stuck on either of the turns bc it's much easier to sniff out runs and it gives you a better idea on who you can reasonably wait for when you only have to sweat out 10 picks or so as opposed to 23.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

I'm debating this very topic before my draft tonight. I have the 7th pick. I'm hoping that Turner slides to me and will consider AJ if he doesn't. Gore is also an option.I've mapped out a scenario where I would take Rodgers in the 1st and it just doesn't play out very well, IMO.But my league is a bit of a crapshoot so the draft could play out 100 different ways. I won't be shocked to see Rodgers and Brees go before my pick at 7 but it could also be 6 straight RBs. Or, AJ could go in the top 5.My preference at this point is to get Turner in the 1st and then follow it up with a WR like Calvin Johnson in the 2nd and maybe a QB in the 3rd if there is an early run. Otherwise, another WR in the 3rd and RBs in the 4th and 5th.'This is 6 points for passing TDs and 0.5 PPR for reference.

Well, that didn't go quite like I planned but I thnk I'm happy. First six went: CJ, AP, MJD, Turner, Rice, GoreI picked 7th and took AJ. Followed it up with Calvin Johnson in the 2nd. Still managed to get Mendenhall, Best, Forte, and Wells as my RBs. Was one pick from getting Finley as my TE in the 7th too.

 

[coltsnut]

I'm debating this very topic before my draft tonight. I have the 7th pick. I'm hoping that Turner slides to me and will consider AJ if he doesn't. Gore is also an option.I've mapped out a scenario where I would take Rodgers in the 1st and it just doesn't play out very well, IMO.But my league is a bit of a crapshoot so the draft could play out 100 different ways. I won't be shocked to see Rodgers and Brees go before my pick at 7 but it could also be 6 straight RBs. Or, AJ could go in the top 5.My preference at this point is to get Turner in the 1st and then follow it up with a WR like Calvin Johnson in the 2nd and maybe a QB in the 3rd if there is an early run. Otherwise, another WR in the 3rd and RBs in the 4th and 5th.'This is 6 points for passing TDs and 0.5 PPR for reference.

Well, that didn't go quite like I planned but I thnk I'm happy. First six went: CJ, AP, MJD, Turner, Rice, GoreI picked 7th and took AJ. Followed it up with Calvin Johnson in the 2nd. Still managed to get Mendenhall, Best, Forte, and Wells as my RBs. Was one pick from getting Finley as my TE in the 7th too.

Championship

 

[Rick James]

I pickeded 6th in a 12-team NON PPR league last week, team is in sig.

Gore was there at 6, but I couldn't do it. I knew that the WR available in the 2nd at my pick would be Marshall/DJax/Jennings. Calvin/Austin/Roddy would be long gone. And they were.

I chose AJ at 1.06 with every intention of taking DWill at 2.07, but he went 2 picks ahead of me; if the #8 team hadn't been autodrafting, I'm pretty certain I would have had him. 2nd round went Mendenhall.

3- Romo

4- Charles

5- Nicks

6- JStew

I fee like you can make a really balanced team selecting from the middle slots.

 

[zadok]

I'm debating this very topic before my draft tonight. I have the 7th pick. I'm hoping that Turner slides to me and will consider AJ if he doesn't. Gore is also an option.I've mapped out a scenario where I would take Rodgers in the 1st and it just doesn't play out very well, IMO.But my league is a bit of a crapshoot so the draft could play out 100 different ways. I won't be shocked to see Rodgers and Brees go before my pick at 7 but it could also be 6 straight RBs. Or, AJ could go in the top 5.My preference at this point is to get Turner in the 1st and then follow it up with a WR like Calvin Johnson in the 2nd and maybe a QB in the 3rd if there is an early run. Otherwise, another WR in the 3rd and RBs in the 4th and 5th.'This is 6 points for passing TDs and 0.5 PPR for reference.

Well, that didn't go quite like I planned but I thnk I'm happy. First six went: CJ, AP, MJD, Turner, Rice, GoreI picked 7th and took AJ. Followed it up with Calvin Johnson in the 2nd. Still managed to get Mendenhall, Best, Forte, and Wells as my RBs. Was one pick from getting Finley as my TE in the 7th too.

Mendenhall in the 3rd?? 8 team league?

 

[zoobird]

The big drop in RB seems to be after the first 5 or 6, which is usually around pick 7 in the first round. The big drop in WR seems to be in the middle of the second round. So for the most part, either you get an elite RB and then have a tough choice what to do in the 2nd round (because the best WR are now gone) or you have the opportunity to get an elite WR and a solid (but not elite) RB. The only two people who seem to gain a big advantage are someone drafting around 5 or 6 who gets an elite RB and has an elite WR drop to them, or someone who gets Andre Johnson (also likely in that 5-7 range) and either a solid RB or elite WR in the second round. I think I may have just convinced myself that pick 5 or 6 are ideal, as long as you don't believe that there's a big drop off from CJ/AP/MJD to Gore/Turner/AJ. Not sure which group I'd put Rice with.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

I'm debating this very topic before my draft tonight. I have the 7th pick. I'm hoping that Turner slides to me and will consider AJ if he doesn't. Gore is also an option.I've mapped out a scenario where I would take Rodgers in the 1st and it just doesn't play out very well, IMO.But my league is a bit of a crapshoot so the draft could play out 100 different ways. I won't be shocked to see Rodgers and Brees go before my pick at 7 but it could also be 6 straight RBs. Or, AJ could go in the top 5.My preference at this point is to get Turner in the 1st and then follow it up with a WR like Calvin Johnson in the 2nd and maybe a QB in the 3rd if there is an early run. Otherwise, another WR in the 3rd and RBs in the 4th and 5th.'This is 6 points for passing TDs and 0.5 PPR for reference.

Well, that didn't go quite like I planned but I thnk I'm happy. First six went: CJ, AP, MJD, Turner, Rice, GoreI picked 7th and took AJ. Followed it up with Calvin Johnson in the 2nd. Still managed to get Mendenhall, Best, Forte, and Wells as my RBs. Was one pick from getting Finley as my TE in the 7th too.

Mendenhall in the 3rd?? 8 team league?

Nope, 12. I was just as surprised. QBs went pretty early (6 points for passing TDs) and I think by taking Andre & Calvin with my first two picks I caused a bit of WR panic in the 2nd.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

I'm debating this very topic before my draft tonight. I have the 7th pick. I'm hoping that Turner slides to me and will consider AJ if he doesn't. Gore is also an option.I've mapped out a scenario where I would take Rodgers in the 1st and it just doesn't play out very well, IMO.But my league is a bit of a crapshoot so the draft could play out 100 different ways. I won't be shocked to see Rodgers and Brees go before my pick at 7 but it could also be 6 straight RBs. Or, AJ could go in the top 5.My preference at this point is to get Turner in the 1st and then follow it up with a WR like Calvin Johnson in the 2nd and maybe a QB in the 3rd if there is an early run. Otherwise, another WR in the 3rd and RBs in the 4th and 5th.'This is 6 points for passing TDs and 0.5 PPR for reference.

Well, that didn't go quite like I planned but I thnk I'm happy. First six went: CJ, AP, MJD, Turner, Rice, GoreI picked 7th and took AJ. Followed it up with Calvin Johnson in the 2nd. Still managed to get Mendenhall, Best, Forte, and Wells as my RBs. Was one pick from getting Finley as my TE in the 7th too.

Championship

I'm not feeling that confident just yet. Way too reliant on the Lions - have Stafford too. I did snag Carson Palmer as well though. Henne didn't get drafted so I have my eye on him as well. Short bench (14 round draft) so I don't have a lot of room to stash extra guys though.

 

[coltsnut]

The big drop in RB seems to be after the first 5 or 6, which is usually around pick 7 in the first round. The big drop in WR seems to be in the middle of the second round. So for the most part, either you get an elite RB and then have a tough choice what to do in the 2nd round (because the best WR are now gone) or you have the opportunity to get an elite WR and a solid (but not elite) RB. The only two people who seem to gain a big advantage are someone drafting around 5 or 6 who gets an elite RB and has an elite WR drop to them, or someone who gets Andre Johnson (also likely in that 5-7 range) and either a solid RB or elite WR in the second round. I think I may have just convinced myself that pick 5 or 6 are ideal, as long as you don't believe that there's a big drop off from CJ/AP/MJD to Gore/Turner/AJ. Not sure which group I'd put Rice with.

I'm not thinking it's ideal right now, because I can't decide between AJ or Gore/Turner. I had decided for sure I'm going RB, but seeing guys like De Will and Mendy drop is causing me to re-re-re-re evaluate.

 

[Giant Wooden Badger]

The big drop in RB seems to be after the first 5 or 6, which is usually around pick 7 in the first round. The big drop in WR seems to be in the middle of the second round. So for the most part, either you get an elite RB and then have a tough choice what to do in the 2nd round (because the best WR are now gone) or you have the opportunity to get an elite WR and a solid (but not elite) RB. The only two people who seem to gain a big advantage are someone drafting around 5 or 6 who gets an elite RB and has an elite WR drop to them, or someone who gets Andre Johnson (also likely in that 5-7 range) and either a solid RB or elite WR in the second round. I think I may have just convinced myself that pick 5 or 6 are ideal, as long as you don't believe that there's a big drop off from CJ/AP/MJD to Gore/Turner/AJ. Not sure which group I'd put Rice with.

I'm not thinking it's ideal right now, because I can't decide between AJ or Gore/Turner. I had decided for sure I'm going RB, but seeing guys like De Will and Mendy drop is causing me to re-re-re-re evaluate.

DeAngelo went 2.01 (13th overall) in my league if that helps. 12 teamer, 0.5 PPR.

 

[coltsnut]

Our 14 team league tends to go QB and RB heavy in the first 2 rounds. And, we use CBS as our host site, and the ADP for WRs tends to put them in the middle of round 2 moreso than the RBs (in case they use CBS cheatsheets--I can only hope). Thus, I'm thinking he WRs will fall more than the RBs...but you just never know.

 

[zadok]

I'm debating this very topic before my draft tonight. I have the 7th pick. I'm hoping that Turner slides to me and will consider AJ if he doesn't. Gore is also an option.I've mapped out a scenario where I would take Rodgers in the 1st and it just doesn't play out very well, IMO.But my league is a bit of a crapshoot so the draft could play out 100 different ways. I won't be shocked to see Rodgers and Brees go before my pick at 7 but it could also be 6 straight RBs. Or, AJ could go in the top 5.My preference at this point is to get Turner in the 1st and then follow it up with a WR like Calvin Johnson in the 2nd and maybe a QB in the 3rd if there is an early run. Otherwise, another WR in the 3rd and RBs in the 4th and 5th.'This is 6 points for passing TDs and 0.5 PPR for reference.

Well, that didn't go quite like I planned but I thnk I'm happy. First six went: CJ, AP, MJD, Turner, Rice, GoreI picked 7th and took AJ. Followed it up with Calvin Johnson in the 2nd. Still managed to get Mendenhall, Best, Forte, and Wells as my RBs. Was one pick from getting Finley as my TE in the 7th too.

Mendenhall in the 3rd?? 8 team league?

Nope, 12. I was just as surprised. QBs went pretty early (6 points for passing TDs) and I think by taking Andre & Calvin with my first two picks I caused a bit of WR panic in the 2nd.

I am praying that my draft tomorrow falls that exact way for me...I'll take 2 WR1s and 2 RB1s and laugh all the way to the bank.

 

[thatguythere]

How about the twist of 6 pt TD's and 3 bonus pts for over 40 yd TD's and 6 bonus points for over 50 yd TD's? So that's 6 pts < 40 9 pts 40-49 12 pts 50+

It puts the QBs at a higher premium. Draft Dominator has QB's for 5 of the first 8 picks with our league scoring.

So after talking to the guys with the first four picks I'm pretty sure CJ and ADP will be gone along with Manning and Rodgers.

I have the 5th and have to decide between MJD/Turner or Brees.

I'm leaning towards MJD right now but it is hard to pass on Brees.

 

[coltsnut]

How about the twist of 6 pt TD's and 3 bonus pts for over 40 yd TD's and 6 bonus points for over 50 yd TD's? So that's 6 pts < 40 9 pts 40-49 12 pts 50+It puts the QBs at a higher premium. Draft Dominator has QB's for 5 of the first 8 picks with our league scoring.So after talking to the guys with the first four picks I'm pretty sure CJ and ADP will be gone along with Manning and Rodgers.I have the 5th and have to decide between MJD/Turner or Brees.I'm leaning towards MJD right now but it is hard to pass on Brees.

How about Brady in the 2nd? He and Moss are usually good for at least 2-3 over 50 each year.

 

[MillenHOF]

Pick 5 in 0.5 ppr with 6 pt tds last week.

I took Andre Johnson fifth and watched the mother of all qb runs start in the second. I figured if I drafted romo (after brady, brees, manning, and Rodgers, I could get another qb to fall in the swing. In fact Schaub, Rivers, and some fool panicked and took Kolb before I picked again. I got Roddy White in the third and followed that up with:

1.05 Andre Johnson

2. Romo

3. Roddy White

4. Pierre Thomas (missed on best by one pick and passed on Welker)

5. Ronnie Brown (who I was targeting in round 4)

6. Arian Foster

7. Santana Moss

8. Marion Barber

In no order, Heath Miller, Gaffney, Philly, Longwell, Dez Bryant, Tony Scheffler

I am still not sure if I made a mistake not taking welker. I didn't think barber would fall so low.

 

[coltsnut]

Pick 5 in 0.5 ppr with 6 pt tds last week.I took Andre Johnson fifth and watched the mother of all qb runs start in the second. I figured if I drafted romo (after brady, brees, manning, and Rodgers, I could get another qb to fall in the swing. In fact Schaub, Rivers, and some fool panicked and took Kolb before I picked again. I got Roddy White in the third and followed that up with:1.05 Andre Johnson2. Romo3. Roddy White4. Pierre Thomas (missed on best by one pick and passed on Welker)5. Ronnie Brown (who I was targeting in round 4)6. Arian Foster7. Santana Moss8. Marion BarberIn no order, Heath Miller, Gaffney, Philly, Longwell, Dez Bryant, Tony SchefflerI am still not sure if I made a mistake not taking welker. I didn't think barber would fall so low.

I think QBs will fly off the board in my league too. It's going to leave a lot of us with the decision to take RB/WR BPA or to try to get a QB in the 2nd. I think riding with Flacco and Big Ben may be the way to go.