Drafting IDPs (1 Viewer)

[Eph]

I've set up DD with our scoring system, league settings, etc.

According to DD, Troy Polamalu is my first IDP at #42.

From there, I have IDPs at #44, 45, 50, etc.

Assuming I set everything up correctly, should I just use this order?

Or, should I postpone some of these picks?

I guess my question is, how much do you have to stray from DD's recommended order in an IDP league? Doesn't it take everything into consideration?

FYI, our teams:

1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K, 2DB, 2LB, 1Dflex, 6 bench

Our scoring usually allows our defenses to score pretty similarly to our offenses in a given week.

Thanks,

Eph

 

[Jene Bramel]

Regardless of their true relative value in the scoring system, most leagues won't begin drafting IDPs until well after their VBD numbers would suggest. The DD cannot take into consideration the inherent biases toward offensive players for most owners.

There are some league that will see the first IDPs in the fourth round, but there's usually at least a full round or two gap following those first picks. It would be unusual for the first picks to be defensive backs, however, again regardless of the DD/VBD numbers.

Unless this is everyone's first time, it's probably reasonable to expect the first IDPs to be linebackers somewhere between the 5th-7th rounds, with some additional players scattered in before the IDP position runs in rounds 9 or 10 and later.

 

[Eph]

I think I understand. Sorry, this is our first time doing live drafts...

So, if most people are picking offensive players and some of the positions are getting scarce, then I need to ignore DD and grab one of those scarce spots before all the top tier players are gone, right?

I think DBs do well in our league because we get more points for passes defended (1.5) then tackles (1) and assists (0.5). Troy P. coming up as my D1 surprised the hell out of me!

Thanks!

Eph

 

[Chaos Commish]

Troy P. coming up as my D1 surprised the hell out of me!

You can fix that.

 

[Jene Bramel]

I think I understand. Sorry, this is our first time doing live drafts...So, if most people are picking offensive players and some of the positions are getting scarce, then I need to ignore DD and grab one of those scarce spots before all the top tier players are gone, right?I think DBs do well in our league because we get more points for passes defended (1.5) then tackles (1) and assists (0.5). Troy P. coming up as my D1 surprised the hell out of me!Thanks!Eph

Yep. Offensive scarcity tends to be an issue for most, so stud IDPs sometimes won't be drafted until after most of the viable offensive backups. Those comfortable with their IDP scouting will often slough IDPs and take offensive value until they run out or until the IDP value is to compelling to ignore.Best plan is usually to stay flexible through the middle rounds. Be ready to grab your IDP targets on the right side of the run, especially if you're happy with your offensive roster.Unless this is a deep league, only two starters at LB and DB will mean that there should be plenty of viable LB starters after 10-12 linebackers are drafted and the PD bonus elevates some big play safeties and corners into the mix, making that position pretty deep, too.

 

[Eph]

Troy P. coming up as my D1 surprised the hell out of me!

You can fix that.

But, why? If DD and the projections are up to date and I set up everything correctly, wouldn't it be accurate?

 

[Eph]

Unless this is a deep league, only two starters at LB and DB will mean that there should be plenty of viable LB starters after 10-12 linebackers are drafted and the PD bonus elevates some big play safeties and corners into the mix, making that position pretty deep, too.

Sorry - forgot to mention. This is a 14-team league.Does that change your advice?Also, what's a "PD bonus"?

 

[Chaos Commish]

Troy P. coming up as my D1 surprised the hell out of me!

You can fix that.

But, why? If DD and the projections are up to date and I set up everything correctly, wouldn't it be accurate?

In the history of the universe projections will never be accurate. Imo, a quirk in your scoring and TPs projections has sent him to the top, but that quirk is PD, passes defensed, and that is one heckofa difficult stat to project. I would feel more comfortable with a player projected to big tackle numbers rather than roll the dice with passes defended. Jene? I'm out of the loop this year, but am I making sense here? I would downgrade DBs because of the stat generated depth. Cortland Finnegan has as much if not more value than Troy, and there must be a dozen more... right?

 

[Jene Bramel]

Unless this is a deep league, only two starters at LB and DB will mean that there should be plenty of viable LB starters after 10-12 linebackers are drafted and the PD bonus elevates some big play safeties and corners into the mix, making that position pretty deep, too.

Sorry - forgot to mention. This is a 14-team league.Does that change your advice?

Not really.I think the potential LB2 tier goes 20+ deep this year, i.e. there are 30-35 guys that have a shot to finish in the top 20. I don't think you'll lose too much by taking the LB20 and LB22 rather than the LB9 and LB16. Unless you've drafted yourself into a position where taking one of the first 3-5 linebackers off the board, you may as well wait unless you've got a strong feeling about a particular player.There's little consensus about who are the elite defensive backs this year, so the strategy should work well for that position, too. Given the depth of the LB tier, though, there's an argument that grabbing a guy like Atogwe or Polamalu or similar two-way safety ahead of the linebackers is a solid strategy.PD bonus = you're getting added value for a pass defensed over a solo tackle. Usually, there awarded equal points or the solo is worth slightly more.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Troy P. coming up as my D1 surprised the hell out of me!

You can fix that.

But, why? If DD and the projections are up to date and I set up everything correctly, wouldn't it be accurate?

In the history of the universe projections will never be accurate. Imo, a quirk in your scoring and TPs projections has sent him to the top, but that quirk is PD, passes defensed, and that is one heckofa difficult stat to project. I would feel more comfortable with a player projected to big tackle numbers rather than roll the dice with passes defended. Jene? I'm out of the loop this year, but am I making sense here? I would downgrade DBs because of the stat generated depth. Cortland Finnegan has as much if not more value than Troy, and there must be a dozen more... right?

Agreed. I'd prioritize safeties that are solid coverage players who play well in run support and be looking at run support corners with ball skills later in the draft. That group should be pretty deep. If you're not making Atogwe or Polamalu or Yeremiah Bell or Adrian Wilson a prime target, guys like Finnegan or Kenny Phillips should provide similar value much later in the pecking order.Nice to have you back posting, CC. Please try to cave to your fake football addiction earlier next year.

 

[Eph]

Wow. My head is spinning, but I think I'm getting it.

Thanks guys!

 

[Chaos Commish]

Nice to have you back posting, CC. Please try to cave to your fake football addiction earlier next year.

All I've done is completely confuse one of your customers while calling into question the validity of your flagship draft software. Everyone is probably better off without me. goidpankal

 

[Eph]

I forgot to mention that I also get 1pt/25 yards for KR/PR. So, I've upgraded McKelvin, Josh Wilson, and Daneal Manning.

 

[Chaos Commish]

I forgot to mention that I also get 1pt/25 yards for KR/PR. So, I've upgraded McKelvin, Josh Wilson, and Daneal Manning.

Eph, the key to take away from this conversation is that starting 5 IDPs creates a healthy supply which drives down demand. You can wait to draft your IDPs, which was your original question. Understand PD is hard to project and have a look at other projections and rankings here to get a better feel for where players lineup.I would probably have my O starters and a backup RB and WR before going IDP. Meh, maybe one LB in the mix early. Of course that would need a little monitoring but with 14 teams starting five 5 LBs/DBs, not only will there be nice IDPs available throughout the draft, but there will be help on waivers too. Waivers can be fun in a league like this if you spot a QB that's chucking the ball a lot and a corner likely to be picked on. I used to try to do this week to week.

 

[Eph]

I forgot to mention that I also get 1pt/25 yards for KR/PR. So, I've upgraded McKelvin, Josh Wilson, and Daneal Manning.

Eph, the key to take away from this conversation is that starting 5 IDPs creates a healthy supply which drives down demand. You can wait to draft your IDPs, which was your original question. Understand PD is hard to project and have a look at other projections and rankings here to get a better feel for where players lineup.I would probably have my O starters and a backup RB and WR before going IDP. Meh, maybe one LB in the mix early. Of course that would need a little monitoring but with 14 teams starting five 5 LBs/DBs, not only will there be nice IDPs available throughout the draft, but there will be help on waivers too. Waivers can be fun in a league like this if you spot a QB that's chucking the ball a lot and a corner likely to be picked on. I used to try to do this week to week.

Thanks for the summary. That helps a lot.You're right about the week-to-week IDP waivers. I've followed/used that for years in this league.Just never done this live draft crap before.

 

[Jene Bramel]

Nice to have you back posting, CC. Please try to cave to your fake football addiction earlier next year.

All I've done is completely confuse one of your customers while calling into question the validity of your flagship draft software. Everyone is probably better off without me. goidpankal

I'm color blind, but still onto you.How about that Dan Connor guy?