Drafting well hurts my team! (1 Viewer)

[Callas Disregard]

Does anyone else have this problem? Over the last couple of seasons, I have had several teams start out 4-0 or 5-1 only to finish the regular season 8-5 and get knocked out a wildcard game. I've identified one problem: while I like my drafts, I don't think I do a very good job identifying free agents in-season. Other teams that didn't draft as well pass me by in the second half of the season due to brilliant waiver wire moves.

But the problem is not merely one of failing to identify talent. I really do think that good drafting is hurting me. After about round 7, when other teams are using magazine cheatsheets and are drafting defenses and kickers by round 10, I'm drafting quality backups. Problem is, after week 1 when a handful of players come out of nowhere to have HUGE games, I don't really have anybody I can drop to justify picking up someone who might be a one-hit wonder. Other teams have plenty of crap on their rosters and so have no problems taking a chance on these guys. But I feel the need to give the players I drafted a few weeks to see if they pan out, and so I miss out on the free agents.

For example, this year I failed to get Berrian, Colson, or Cotchery on any of my teams even though they went undrafted. All of these guys were gone after 1 or 2 weeks. But to get them, I'd have to drop a Rod Smith or Michael Clayton, which doesn't seem to make sense after just one week. As a result, my teams seem to fade late in season while teams that started slow come on strong.

Any suggestions on how to better manage the waiver wire? I worry that grabbing a nobody after one huge week and dropping a good vet like Rod Smith will be a mistake because i'll end up chasing points that I can't get.

 

[corpcow]

I see a similar problem - I "draft too deep" and you hold on to th eguys who are pre-season sleepers.

What I tend to do is drop my kicker and/or defense each week for temporary plays - so I at least get these guys - and it gives me a LITTLE longer to figure out who to drop. (It also leads to my weekly "who do I drop for a kicker" threads).

It's tough because you don't want to give up on people so soon... and you don't want to overreact to one good week... but you also don't want to miss out on Boldin or Jennings etc.

Dropping the kicker - even if you go without one for a week just to see how it plays out - sets up your teams better in the long run.

 

[dawgtrails]

I hear ya man. I missed out on all of the same people, but for a little different reason.

Mainly, like you, I felt I had quality backups and didn't want to drop M Bell or Morency for what could be a one hit wonder.

But more importantly, I was in first pace the first 4 weeks 9 (not anymore), and waiver claims go worst to first (something I really hate cause it benefits crappy teams too much)

 

[pigskin pimp]

I, as well, am a deep drafter.

The problem I run into is that I have to drop my deep sleepers before they pan out.

Roster space was too tight when the bye weeks arrive.

I like the players I draft, but some one has to go to play a full lineup. I lost Maurice Drew and Matt Lienhart because of these drops.

As soon as I drop them, they seem to go off that Sunday.

It's easier for scrub teams to pick up my drops, as they're sitting with backup D's and guys like a Chris Baker.

My solution is that I try to trade a couple of my 2nd tier guys for one 1st tier guy. Of course, I play in leagues where the owners love their guys way too much and no one trades.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

my quick response is pay more attention to the defenses your players will be playing against upcoming. Pick apart the matchups.

that, and wait 4 weeks before you trade anyone unless you are sure.

 

[Construction Man Jim]

Don't fall too far in love with anybody. If you draft well you will have enough depth at the top of your bench to use 1-2 roster spots to take these kinds of chances. Beyond that it's just a matter of recognizing the confluence of talent and opportunity (especially at the beginning of the season).

 

[Sweeper]

My first few years this was quite common. Starting 10-0 or 9-1, scrape by to make the playoffs but not have enough momentum to win the big game.

That is when I started working the rosters. Tweaking them, many different ways. Trading is a big part of that.

Those guys that get you to 5-0, are those guys you want to move and unload for some other players that will win you the next 5 to 10 games.

Smart trades take you a lot further then you might expect and are just as important as keeping an eye on free agents.

 

[H8fulHuck]

Does anyone else have this problem? Over the last couple of seasons, I have had several teams start out 4-0 or 5-1 only to finish the regular season 8-5 and get knocked out a wildcard game. I've identified one problem: while I like my drafts, I don't think I do a very good job identifying free agents in-season. Other teams that didn't draft as well pass me by in the second half of the season due to brilliant waiver wire moves.But the problem is not merely one of failing to identify talent. I really do think that good drafting is hurting me. After about round 7, when other teams are using magazine cheatsheets and are drafting defenses and kickers by round 10, I'm drafting quality backups. Problem is, after week 1 when a handful of players come out of nowhere to have HUGE games, I don't really have anybody I can drop to justify picking up someone who might be a one-hit wonder. Other teams have plenty of crap on their rosters and so have no problems taking a chance on these guys. But I feel the need to give the players I drafted a few weeks to see if they pan out, and so I miss out on the free agents.For example, this year I failed to get Berrian, Colson, or Cotchery on any of my teams even though they went undrafted. All of these guys were gone after 1 or 2 weeks. But to get them, I'd have to drop a Rod Smith or Michael Clayton, which doesn't seem to make sense after just one week. As a result, my teams seem to fade late in season while teams that started slow come on strong. Any suggestions on how to better manage the waiver wire? I worry that grabbing a nobody after one huge week and dropping a good vet like Rod Smith will be a mistake because i'll end up chasing points that I can't get.

I'll pass on a personal draft gem for you if your roster size is similiar to mine (19-21 players). Take it or leave it as bathroom wall scribblings.I have slotted 5 WR for my roster and had excellent success loading up on RB, Gonzo (in days gone by) and tag an undervalued quality WR or two. Finally, I take two boom/bust type WR very late. For example: I drafted Kevin Curtis this year. Kevin got off to a slow start, so I quickly moved on Colston. Same thing with Wilford for Reggie Williams. Drafting your #3, #4 or even #5 receivers in rounds 5-9 makes it neigh impossible to let them go after even a few bad weeks. I'm still saddled with Mason for this reason.Obviously, I'm not overly concerned with Mason's struggles thanks to Colston & Williams taking up the slack.In my experience, you can usually tab a WR gem from the WW if you pounce on that one hit wonder like Boldin a few years back.

 

[Billy1x]

Thats the problem with drafting to good. You need some losers to start off so you have an excuse to dump them and pick up some waiver wire people

Sad but true.

 

[Callas Disregard]

Drafting your #3, #4 or even #5 receivers in rounds 5-9 makes it neigh impossible to let them go after even a few bad weeks. I'm still saddled with Mason for this reason.

Great point. I'm a victim of this, and so I have Rod Smith on 2 of my 3 teams. Part of it is that I draft QBs very late, and I draft RBs very early, so that pretty much leaves WRs for the middle rounds. But it ain't all bad: I also got Darrell Jackson, Terry Glenn, and Muhsin Muhammad in those middle rounds.

 

[Ilov80s]

Well maybe you aren't drafting that good? If you were, wouldn't some of these late round guys be performing well instead of taking up space?

A smart drafter will spend late round picks on gambles with big upside or realistic potential. A smart player will know when to cut loose on those late round gambles.

Also, consider making an early 2-for-1 trade to clear up some space. Nothing is better then packagine 2 C players, for a 1 B player.

 

[Ilov80s]

My first few years this was quite common. Starting 10-0 or 9-1, scrape by to make the playoffs but not have enough momentum to win the big game.

That is when I started working the rosters. Tweaking them, many different ways. Trading is a big part of that.

Those guys that get you to 5-0, are those guys you want to move and unload for some other players that will win you the next 5 to 10 games.

Smart trades take you a lot further then you might expect and are just as important as keeping an eye on free agents.

I have some analysis for RBs that ties into what you are saying. I totally agree with you. People that fall in love with the players that got them through the first half of the season, often fall apart in the second half. Even at 6-0, it is a work in progress.

 

[cstu]

I try to make 2-for-1 trades so that I can trade some depth for a better player (doesn't need to be a stud, just better than what I have) and get some scrub I can drop for good free agent. A lot of times I end up giving people a great deal since I have too much talent and can turn that scrub on their bench into a good player.