KarmaPolice
Footballguy
So what do we have this week?
That's what my impulse usually is, but seem like there are mid-tier rbs that get a ton of use who are underpriced all season, and the cheap wrs haven't been working as well.I feel like I want cook fournette and Barkley and piece it together after that. Henry seems like a decent cheap option at te, almost have to play the pats defense until they don’t score 20+, and then piece in a wr core. Stills and coutee could be nice cheap options. Kirk, aj brown maybe for gpp if I’m looking for cheap options.
Maybe ty Johnson is an option at $4900.That's what my impulse usually is, but seem like there are mid-tier rbs that get a ton of use who are underpriced all season, and the cheap wrs haven't been working as well.
I thought Carson vs Atl was a lock. I like Everett on the cheap after looking at the lists, the couple wrs I mentioned.
Looks like on first glance, Westbrook, NYJ wrs, and Car Wrs are the cheap options I will look into more for cash.
Nice. Forgot about the KJ injury. Will have to look into how much of a load he is expected to get.Maybe ty Johnson is an option at $4900.
Watching the game he split time with mckissic (sp?) I imagine they split time again, and actually JD might be a sneaky play as well, both can hit a big playNice. Forgot about the KJ injury. Will have to look into how much of a load he is expected to get.
Eagles secondary, shootout type of matchup, safety blanket. The only thing not to like is his adot. Volume is very likely to be there and at 4.2k you really can't go wrong there I think.Am I missing something with Beasley?
Ginn has been a sneaky start for me. He always gets deep targets, a carry or two plus bubbles. BUT, he is near the league leaders in drops and they always seem to be in the endzone. I like him better with Brees in.First thoughts for some likely low owned stacks:
Titans with Tannehill AJ Brown and Corey Davis, I tried it 2 weeks ago with Mariota and that didn't work. I feel like this week you can get easy points against a tampa team that will sell out to stop Henry
Raiders stack. Carr, Doss, Waller, Jacobs if you want to go 4, especially if no Tyrell again. I feel like you can leave Jacobs out, likely playing from behind a bit. Run it back with Nuk and Hyde if you want going with that same game script thought.
Cardinals stack. Tough Saints Def though and it might only be viable IF Kirk is back in action. Edmunds is priced up as if DJ won't play a whole lot like this past week. Counter with Ginn maybe? Pat Pete is going to be on MT very likely.
Then there was the least viable I thought of a Bengals stack. You can save so much salary with Mixon, Boyd and Dalton all super cheap. Could be an underrated shootout. All signs point to the Rams dominating but ya never know right?
I hear you. I guess it's just not a name I like to click and he didn't show up on anything I was looking at - probably because of his really low air yard market share %.Eagles secondary, shootout type of matchup, safety blanket. The only thing not to like is his adot. Volume is very likely to be there and at 4.2k you really can't go wrong there I think.
Curious what that may have looked like last week, was there a predictor in Matt Ryan’s terrible game?One thing that a pod brought up that I really need to look at more is pressure/sack rate for QBs. Obviously I look at it when looking for cheap DTs, but I never seem to bother to reverse that list and look up the crap teams. They were saying that was a huge reason why Goff wasn't as much of a risk - he is seeing more pressure this year due to his OL, but Atl generates 0 pressure.
SO - looking there for QBs and here is who is going against the teams with the lowest sack %:
Wilson, Minshew, D.Jones, Goff, Ryan (is he starting?), Watson, and Tannehill.
List vs. teams with lowest % of QB hurries:
Watson, Minshew, Flacco, Carr, Wentz, Goff.
I highlighted the 3 appearing on both lists, and I am guessing that a bit of this is baked into the higher Vegas totals on some of the games where there are 2 Qbs from the same game appearing on these lists: Seattle/Atl, Oak/Houst
Look at that - league average hurry % is about 10-11% and the Rams are number 1 at 20.3%. Then add in Ramsey to the equation. Rams have above average sack % too.Curious what that may have looked like last week, was there a predictor in Matt Ryan’s terrible game?
Is this for cash?Gonna have to stop posting if I lose again 3 weeks in a row losing at least $100 every time.
Qb. Watson
Rb L. Murray
Rb. T. Johnson
Wr. D. Hopkins
Wr. Stills
Wr. J. Brown
TE. G. Everett
Flex. Hooper
D. S.F.
Gonna have to stop posting if I lose again 3 weeks in a row losing at least $100 every time.Is this for cash?
If so, I have to strongly try to steer you away from playing 2 TEs in cash.
Gotcha. Still don't see the upside for gpps with TEs, but I guess it has happened. IMO the upside for 30+ point game isn't there like it is if you have a WR in the flex or a cheap RB getting an uptick in workload.It's gpp, but depending on matchups I usually have no problem playings two TE if the matchup is favorable.
I was looking at him a bit myself. If I swap him in for Beasley in the lineup above I can upgrade Tannehill to Stafford or Everett to Ertz or Henry.One of the pods brought up D.Hamilton for cash on DK. Looks like when Sanders was out at the end of the season last year he saw 9, 12, 9, and 8 targets and hit 3x all but one week. Only 3.3K this week vs Indy. That is an offense that does always feel focused to the 2 main WRs playing. Sanders vacates a 19% target share on the year.
Despite that being an ugly game vs the pats, bell still looked good. Problem was the game got out of hand so quickly, they abandoned the run. He will be heavily involved and the schedule lightens up dramatically.What do you guys think of Bell this week? Optimizers and rankings I've seen so far have him a couple places above Barkley but I just don't see it.
After Darnolds last game are they just expecting the Jets to run him like crazy and target him a bunch too in a short passing attack?
2 TE can work but only with about 5 players this week. And I don't see Everett as one of those guys. He has a great matchup but so do the rest of the Rams. Its difficult to see him getting 10 targets again.Gotcha. Still don't see the upside for gpps with TEs, but I guess it has happened. IMO the upside for 30+ point game isn't there like it is if you have a WR in the flex or a cheap RB getting an uptick in workload.
I know anything can work, but just thinking statistically what are the odds 2Te is taking down main slate gpps?2 TE can work but only with about 5 players this week. And I don't see Everett as one of those guys. He has a great matchup but so do the rest of the Rams. Its difficult to see him getting 10 targets again.
I really like AJ Brown this week and Evans on the other side.Some thoughts on this for cash? I tried to force my way into top3 RB's and I don't hate it. Only iffy thing is I have 2 Titans here so I'm not sure on that but it's easily enough countered because they're so cheap a 0 doesn't exactly kill you. It was a suggested one from a podcast with Jonnu and AJ Brown.
Kyler
Barkley, CMC, Fournette
AJ Brown, Beasley, Coutee
Jonnu Smith
Texans
$0 salary left over
The odds are low for 2 TE to be in the highest scoring lineup. But you have 8 TE that have scored over 25 DK pts in a game at least once this season (Waller, Hooper, Kelce, Engram, Olsen, Henry, Hock, Andrews). And 3 TE that have scored over 30pts at least once (Waller, Engram, Henry). So it's definitely possible.I know anything can work, but just thinking statistically what are the odds 2Te is taking down main slate gpps?
I just keep going back to the couple gpp strategy articles I've read that say on dk the majority of top scoring LU is wrs at the flex, but a portion is rb flex. Very very few TE flex, I assume because either they won't see the volume a 4-5k rb will, and they usually dont get those 13+yd aDOT targets a wr will to get that 150 yr, 2 td game.
I would love to see a breakdown of those high scoring 2TE lineups. Was it playing Gronk/Kelce? Was is playing 2 dirt cheap guys allowing you to fit in 4 huge studs cmc/barkley/m.thomas/Hopkins and they all dominated?
So on the above lineup I get playing everett at te- I even mentioned him. But then I look at Hooper in the flex, and think what are the odds he can outscore the rbs and wrs within a couple hundred of his salary. We are talking about guys like J.Brown, Marvin, Ridley, Lindsey, l.murray, Jacobs, j.white, ekeler, etc.
Imo 2TE is for afternoon slates and stuff, but don't see it for slates 10 games+. Of course, I'm not taking down gpps, so.. .
Like I said, I would love to read articles breaking this down more. One follow up questions for me would be how many times did 2 TEs crack that threshold in the same week, and is that 25pt line enough, or is it more like 30+?The odds are low for 2 TE to be in the highest scoring lineup. But you have 7 TE that have scored over 25 DK pts in a game at least once this season (Waller, Hooper, Kelce, Engram, Olsen, Henry, Hock). And 3 TE that have scored over 30pts at least once (Waller, Engram, Henry). So it's definitely possible.
Kittle and Ertz are noticeably absent from both groups.
Yeah it's unlikely that 2TE would crack 30 pts in the same week. But in week 3, the following did happen and 2 TE would have scored up to 56.4 pts at a low combined salary.Like I said, I would love to read articles breaking this down more. One follow up questions for me would be how many times did 2 TEs crack that threshold in the same week, and is that 25pt line enough, or is it more like 30+?
Not going to go through each week, and of course this doesn't incorporate salary and construction, but I looked at flex players (so all RB/WRs/TE) for DK scoring a couple random weeks.
Week 1 there were 28 that scored 25pts+ and it looks like Engram/Hock/Andrews were on there. 8 over 30 and just Engram there. I guess the other question is if you played 2 TEs, did that get you off one of the guys that went bonkers like Watkins, CMC, Ekeler, etc.
Week 4 there were only 14 over 25pts, and just Hooper in there. only 6 over 30pts, none being TEs.
Week 7 there were only 10 over 25pts and just Waller on that list 18 over 20pts, and still only one TE. 6 were over 30pts, and one was Waller.
All it would have taken last Sunday for me to cash 6 figures last week was swap dak/zeke for captain and play Maher over sanders. $10 gpp 117k ppl. I’m considering doing max entries in $1 this week for rams/bengals because I think that will have an obvious game script. Cashed last night again in showdown gpp, I guess I’ve either been lucky or i do better when I focus on one game.By the way, there is one expert out there who has cashed six figures in three separate showdowns this year. I suspect that not nearly as many people max enter those as the classic games, so if I were ever going to max enter anything, it would have to be a showdown slate, but since I don't use optimizers, I can't imagine how tedious and annoying that would be.
I would like to try it once with a $1 showdown, just to see how it unfolded.
I usually do ok in showdowns, so its been frustrating. Watching the game last night, but not watching my DK scores, I thought I would have been in the money, but I wasn't really even close, and that surprised me. I had all the right pieces, but the wrong captain. weird.All it would have taken last Sunday for me to cash 6 figures last week was swap dak/zeke for captain and play Maher over sanders. $10 gpp 117k ppl. I’m considering doing max entries in $1 this week for rams/bengals because I think that will have an obvious game script. Cashed last night again in showdown gpp, I guess I’ve either been lucky or i do better when I focus on one game.
I’ve had mild success, last year it was playing gpps like cash, I would usually play both QBs, a defense and kicker, both rbs if I can fit them, or an3rd down back. I wouldn’t win big or really have a chance at 1st but I was cashing somewhat consistently. Have to come off that formula when it’s NE vs Luke falkKarmaPolice said:I need an app on my phone that punches me in the nuts if I click on a showdown entry.
So let’s say max 20- probably make one with a positive bengals game script, and 19 with different variations of gurley kupp woods cooks Everett Henderson ramsD zeurlien Goff. Need a bengal so probably cheapest wr who might do something or eifert probably cheap (but maybe not that format.) maybe kicker.I usually do ok in showdowns, so its been frustrating. Watching the game last night, but not watching my DK scores, I thought I would have been in the money, but I wasn't really even close, and that surprised me. I had all the right pieces, but the wrong captain. weird.
Rams/Bengals could get ugly for the Bengals. If you decide to max enter, you putting anything on the Bengals to do anything in this game? What percentage of lineups would have the Bengals somehow showing up?
I think about a 5% chance of the Bengals is about where the market would be on this game. Agree that it seems the most predictable.So let’s say max 20- probably make one with a positive bengals game script, and 19 with different variations of gurley kupp woods cooks Everett Henderson ramsD zeurlien Goff. Need a bengal so probably cheapest wr who might do something or eifert probably cheap (but maybe not that format.) maybe kicker.
Eta: part of the reason I want to do this game is because it should be predictably lopsided.
I like the impulse, but IF I remember right, last year when it was jam RBs in each week they were a little cheaper - sub 8K for a bit?. I wonder about the missed opportunities at the other positions if 1/2 your salary is at the RB spot.Zyphros said:Some thoughts on this for cash? I tried to force my way into top3 RB's and I don't hate it. Only iffy thing is I have 2 Titans here so I'm not sure on that but it's easily enough countered because they're so cheap a 0 doesn't exactly kill you. It was a suggested one from a podcast with Jonnu and AJ Brown.
Kyler
Barkley, CMC, Fournette
AJ Brown, Beasley, Coutee
Jonnu Smith
Texans
$0 salary left over
I don't see how Nuk is more attractive without Fuller. He gets his no matter who's opposite him.I like the impulse, but IF I remember right, last year when it was jam RBs in each week they were a little cheaper - sub 8K for a bit?. I wonder about the missed opportunities at the other positions if 1/2 your salary is at the RB spot.
If cash is all about trying to maximize touches/targets/scoring opps, I start thinking about 1v1s and wonder if there is better options. Ie you are passing on lower priced RBs that also see a ton of volume (or might) like L.murray, Bell, Freeman, Michel, Coleman, etc. So is something like Michel + J.Brown + Sutton better than Barkley/Beasley/Brown? Just throwing stuff out there to show my thought process.
I also have concerns about Kyler on the road in NO, but that is separate.
Interesting LU for sure, and I also had the impulse to put in Barkley and CMC, but then started thinking about if it's really bad in cash to not have Hopkins without Fuller or M.Thomas in the LU with a little bit cheaper RB or QB. I have seem a lot of optimizers spitting out Schaub as a cash QB at 4.7K.
I have a bit of smoky brown and stills with desean Hamilton so I can pay up for watson and keep the stud rbs. It’s a gpp entry though, may be too risky for cash. There are a ton of good rb matchups though this week across the board. Decent cheap flyers but also some cows with good matchups. Capable backs like cmc and chubb have bad matchups and may be less ownership,I don't see how Nuk is more attractive without Fuller. He gets his no matter who's opposite him.
Found another cheapy option at WR though with Jakobi Meyers. I have to assume he's the #2 while Sanu gets acclimated in a good matchup for the Patriots pass catchers. He's 3600.
If I'm going to pay that low at QB, I'd much rather go Trubisky against the Chargers at home. 4900. That seems like a massive miss-pricing. Now that I think that through a bit more, I like that option way more than Kyler.
And now that I'm talking this out in my head I'm altering my cash lineup as I'm typing this. If I sub in Trubisky and Meyers in (instead of Coutee), I can pay up for John Brown instead of Beasley (although I'm not sure who the better play is in DK with full PPR). Keep AJ Brown and go Meyers at #3. Keep the stud Rb's and Jonnu, and go middle road D with the Texans?
Or I could go Sutton > Beasley (John Brown), Stills > AJ Brown, keep Meyers. Nah I like Brown, Brown, Meyers better.