Drew Bledsoe, steal of draft for QB's (1 Viewer)

[Braxton]

Yes, you read that correctly.

Drew Bledsoe, aka Statue Boy, will be a dangerous weapon this year.

Terry Glenn, Jason Witten, and yes ... TO (who I can't stand, but is ridiculously good)

will guarantee 30 touchdowns. WRITE IT DOWN.

I am not a Cowboys fan. I am not smoking anything. Watch the show begin.

If you took Hasselbeck or Eli Manning before Bledsoe, YOU MISSED the BOAT.

I got him QB12 in a 12 team league.

I predict:

P. Manning 34 TD's 4000 yds

C. Palmer 31 TD's 3800 yds

D. Bledsoe 30-32 TD's and 3900 yds.

At the very least, he'll make top 5 QB in almost all formats.

Let the show begin!

 

[LHUCKS]

I've been preaching this since February.

 

[duaneok66]

You'd better hope Flozell Adams is and stays healthy . . .

 

[imeimex]

You better hope Drew Bledsoe is and stays healthy ...

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

You'd better hope Flozell Adams is and stays healthy . . .

Bledsoe was someone you wanted nowhere near your lineup for most of the second half last year.

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/0..._rearviewqb.php

One guy to downgrade is Drew Bledsoe. He ranked 6th in standard scoring leagues, based in large part on his ability to play 16 games. But based on FP/AdjG he ranked just 17th, and his schedule was pretty easy too [he ranked 20th after adjusting for SOS]. In reality, he just wasn't a very good fantasy QB last year, but he stayed healthy and didn't have a hard schedule, so he produced good numbers. The addition of Terrell Owens assures that Bledsoe's ADP will remain high, but buyer beware.

 

[Braxton]

I've been preaching this since February.

I read your post, wow! Nice work.Regards

 

[TenTimes]

I was at the end of the QB run and he was about all that was left for me to pick so I don't see how he can't throw 30 TDs with that receiver core.

 

[Braxton]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/0..._rearviewqb.php

One guy to downgrade is Drew Bledsoe. He ranked 6th in standard scoring leagues, based in large part on his ability to play 16 games. But based on FP/AdjG he ranked just 17th, and his schedule was pretty easy too [he ranked 20th after adjusting for SOS]. In reality, he just wasn't a very good fantasy QB last year, but he stayed healthy and didn't have a hard schedule, so he produced good numbers. The addition of Terrell Owens assures that Bledsoe's ADP will remain high, but buyer beware.

Impact Analysis: Drew Bledsoe Posted 8/19 by Jeff O'Dell, Freelance Submission to Footballguys.com

Both Parcells and Bledsoe have experience with meat-headed receivers and I'm not quite buying in to an early eruption by Terrell Owens. While Owens may not find 100 receptions in a Bill Parcells offense, I'm led to believe Drew Bledsoe can tack on 600 yards and 6 TDs to his 2005 numbers. The temptation of a semi-open Owens may also support our previous projection of increased INTs plus an additional one.

GP Att Comp PYD PTD INT

16 550 330 4200 30 20

Touche'

 

[Braxton]

I was at the end of the QB run and he was about all that was left for me to pick so I don't see how he can't throw 30 TDs with that receiver core.

Yup!TO 11 TD'sGlen 8 TD'sWitten 7 TD'sand 4 more to Misc.Enjoy Drew! (and get Tony Romo just in case. Looked stellar in preseason).

 

[diesel7982]

Bledsoe was a top QB last year, especially when Adams was healthy.

Whats the surprise here?

 

[videoguy505]

His SOS isn't that great when I'm in my division games, so I passed. Could go either way. Another concussion and he could be Aikman.

 

[Braxton]

You'd better hope Flozell Adams is and stays healthy . . .

Bledsoe was someone you wanted nowhere near your lineup for most of the second half last year.

I agree, Flozell Adams health is a very key ingredient here.When he was healthy, Bledsoe dominated (without TO).Also, Dallas upgraded O line this year. Pretty solid group overall.I stand by my predictions.

 

[TenTimes]

I was at the end of the QB run and he was about all that was left for me to pick so I don't see how he can't throw 30 TDs with that receiver core.

Yup!TO 11 TD'sGlen 8 TD'sWitten 7 TD'sand 4 more to Misc.Enjoy Drew! (and get Tony Romo just in case. Looked stellar in preseason).

slighty off topicglenn gets more of everything except fines than TO

 

[Braxton]

His SOS isn't that great when I'm in my division games, so I passed. Could go either way. Another concussion and he could be Aikman.

Yes. Another shredded knee, he could be Palmer.Another abdominal tear, he could be McNabb.Another broken thumb, he could be Favre.You can't predict injuries.Remember, this is a steal at QB 10! He has tremendous upside with TO.And, Terry Glenn is a hell of a better receiver than the Eagles number #2 in 2004.How many TD's did McNafro have in 2004? Over 30 right?You missed the boat.

 

[Wally Cleaver]

Yes, you read that correctly. Drew Bledsoe, aka Statue Boy, will be a dangerous weapon this year.Terry Glenn, Jason Witten, and yes ... TO (who I can't stand, but is ridiculously good) will guarantee 30 touchdowns. WRITE IT DOWN. I am not a Cowboys fan. I am not smoking anything. Watch the show begin.If you took Hasselbeck or Eli Manning before Bledsoe, YOU MISSED the BOAT.I got him QB12 in a 12 team league. I predict. Manning 34 TD's 4000 ydsC. Palmer 31 TD's 3800 ydsD. Bledsoe 30-32 TD's and 3900 yds.At the very least, he'll make top 5 QB in almost all formats.Let the show begin!

If healthy I agree, with that line and no ability to evade the rush I dont think he will last the year!!! Make sure you have a solid backup.

 

[bjlmonster]

Just stole him as QB 12 in my 14 team league tonight!

With injury and TO blowing up concerns, I didn't want him too early, but stocked up on RB's and still got a solid and possible top 5 QB!

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I agree, but I think Plummer is actually a better value...

 

[Big Score]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/0..._rearviewqb.php

One guy to downgrade is Drew Bledsoe. He ranked 6th in standard scoring leagues, based in large part on his ability to play 16 games. But based on FP/AdjG he ranked just 17th, and his schedule was pretty easy too [he ranked 20th after adjusting for SOS]. In reality, he just wasn't a very good fantasy QB last year, but he stayed healthy and didn't have a hard schedule, so he produced good numbers. The addition of Terrell Owens assures that Bledsoe's ADP will remain high, but buyer beware.

I had not looked into Bledose this deeply. I just knew that something didn't "feel" right about him. Those infamous gut feelings dontcha' know.

While I still think Bledsoe is going to produce, I am somewhat reassured by the above in passing on him in my drafts, due to how high he was going. I just didn't feel comfortable spending the draft pick necessary to get him. Thought there was better value in other skill positions and could likely get relatively equal QB production / value, a couple of rounds later.

Be interesting to see how he ends up doing.

 

[code]

Bledsoe was a top QB last year, especially when Adams was healthy.Whats the surprise here?

The surprise was that he lasted into the mid-to-late rounds of our draft finally coming off the board as QB17...huge value no matter how you feel about him in '06...

 

[Muahahaha]

How will this NOT be like McNabb's jump when TO came to Philly? I've got Bledsoe in two leagues and am drinking the Kool-Aid.

McNabb in 2003: 3216 yards / 16 TDs / 11 Ints / 266.60 FP

McNabb in 2004: 3875 / 31 / 8 /349.75

I seriously don't understand why we won't see the same thing with Bledsoe. Someone explain this to me.

 

[nygiants56]

His SOS isn't that great when I'm in my division games, so I passed. Could go either way. Another concussion and he could be Aikman.

Yes. Another shredded knee, he could be Palmer.Another abdominal tear, he could be McNabb.Another broken thumb, he could be Favre.You can't predict injuries.Remember, this is a steal at QB 10! He has tremendous upside with TO.And, Terry Glenn is a hell of a better receiver than the Eagles number #2 in 2004.How many TD's did McNafro have in 2004? Over 30 right?You missed the boat.

Bledsoe always seems to start off hot, and fades badly down the stretch - the final 8 weeks of nearly every season....seems his stamina, or lack thereof, gets the best of him lately ( age, too)..he is a great value pick relative to his ADP, but, Romo is going to see significant playing time this year, IMO...the bloom will be off the rose with Bledsoe by week 3-4, once he pops a 3-INT game..then, Parcells will pull the hook and go with Romo..Dallas plays Jax and Washington the first two games of the season, if they're 0-2, expect to see Romo after the week 3 bye..I just get the feeling that Parcells is lookng for an excuse to get Romo out there.

 

[Pole Cat]

I agree, but I think Plummer is actually a better value...

The correct answer is both. Grab Drew in the 8th and Plummer in the 10th. Genius!

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

How will this NOT be like McNabb's jump when TO came to Philly? I've got Bledsoe in two leagues and am drinking the Kool-Aid.McNabb in 2003: 3216 yards / 16 TDs / 11 Ints / 266.60 FPMcNabb in 2004: 3875 / 31 / 8 /349.75I seriously don't understand why we won't see the same thing with Bledsoe. Someone explain this to me.

McNabb was a quality QB in the midst of his prime in 2004. Drew Bledsoe is an adequate QB (at best) with some huge weaknesses in the swan song years of his career.

 

[Muahahaha]

How will this NOT be like McNabb's jump when TO came to Philly? I've got Bledsoe in two leagues and am drinking the Kool-Aid.McNabb in 2003: 3216 yards / 16 TDs / 11 Ints / 266.60 FPMcNabb in 2004: 3875 / 31 / 8 /349.75I seriously don't understand why we won't see the same thing with Bledsoe. Someone explain this to me.

McNabb was a quality QB in the midst of his prime in 2004. Drew Bledsoe is an adequate QB (at best) with some huge weaknesses in the swan song years of his career.

Agreed. But on the margin, I would think TO makes Bledsoe better. He probably becomes more adequate.Look at Jeff Garcia with and without TO. With him he was a fantasy starter. Without him he was garbage & is now nothing more than a sub-par backup.There is no doubt in my mind that TO makes his starting QB better. He makes quality QBs stars & makes adequate to bad QBs passable to good.For my money, I would rather bet on TO by taking Bledsoe in the 8th than TO in the 2nd or 3rd. It's a cheap bet which can be easily hedged with another cheap QB.

 

[Chase Stuart]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/0..._rearviewqb.php

One guy to downgrade is Drew Bledsoe. He ranked 6th in standard scoring leagues, based in large part on his ability to play 16 games. But based on FP/AdjG he ranked just 17th, and his schedule was pretty easy too [he ranked 20th after adjusting for SOS]. In reality, he just wasn't a very good fantasy QB last year, but he stayed healthy and didn't have a hard schedule, so he produced good numbers. The addition of Terrell Owens assures that Bledsoe's ADP will remain high, but buyer beware.

I had not looked into Bledose this deeply. I just knew that something didn't "feel" right about him. Those infamous gut feelings dontcha' know.

While I still think Bledsoe is going to produce, I am somewhat reassured by the above in passing on him in my drafts, due to how high he was going. I just didn't feel comfortable spending the draft pick necessary to get him. Thought there was better value in other skill positions and could likely get relatively equal QB production / value, a couple of rounds later.

Be interesting to see how he ends up doing.

I believe that a player's rank in adjusted fantasy points per adjusted game is more predictive of his fantasy performance the following year than anything else. It's better than a FP rank, better than a FP/G rank, and way better than any other non-fantasy metric (like team wins or QB rating).In other words, I'd start my ranking of Bledsoe at QB20. Then I'd probably drop him slightly because of age. Then I'd bump him up significantly because of TO. Then I'd drop him down a touch because of the concussions and Romo factor. He'd probably end up at around QB16 on my list.

But anyone using a baseline of QB6 instead of a baseline of QB19 (I'd remove Josh McCown from the list; Aaron Brooks, Drew Brees and Kerry Collins all rank ahead of Bledsoe, but obviously Phillip Rivers isn't on the list...so I'd still probably begin with a baseline where the NO QB, SD QB and OAK QB rank ahead of the DAL QB) is going to be wrong more often than not.

A simple example is Steve McNair. Both players had slightly easier than average SOS. And while in standard leagues Bledsoe ranked 6th and McNair ranked 15th, Bledsoe ranked 17th in FP/AdjG and McNair ranked 15th. McNair averaged 17.6 FP in 13.1 adjusted games; Bledsoe scored 17.2 FP in 16 adjusted games.

If you want to move Bledsoe past McNair because McNair's injury prone, that's fine. But it's important to recognize -- and thus keep Bledsoe's projections in check -- that he wasn't very good when he was on the field last year. In fact, he was below average.

(Note: This is all about setting a baseline, and has nothing to do with TO. If you think TO is going to make QB20 into QB4, then I've got no problem with that -- at least on my current argument. But if you think TO is going to make QB6 into QB4 and now you have Bledsoe as QB4, that's where I think you're making a big mistake.)

 

[Big Score]

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/2006/0..._rearviewqb.php

One guy to downgrade is Drew Bledsoe. He ranked 6th in standard scoring leagues, based in large part on his ability to play 16 games. But based on FP/AdjG he ranked just 17th, and his schedule was pretty easy too [he ranked 20th after adjusting for SOS]. In reality, he just wasn't a very good fantasy QB last year, but he stayed healthy and didn't have a hard schedule, so he produced good numbers. The addition of Terrell Owens assures that Bledsoe's ADP will remain high, but buyer beware.

I had not looked into Bledose this deeply. I just knew that something didn't "feel" right about him. Those infamous gut feelings dontcha' know.

While I still think Bledsoe is going to produce, I am somewhat reassured by the above in passing on him in my drafts, due to how high he was going. I just didn't feel comfortable spending the draft pick necessary to get him. Thought there was better value in other skill positions and could likely get relatively equal QB production / value, a couple of rounds later.

Be interesting to see how he ends up doing.

I believe that a player's rank in adjusted fantasy points per adjusted game is more predictive of his fantasy performance the following year than anything else. It's better than a FP rank, better than a FP/G rank, and way better than any other non-fantasy metric (like team wins or QB rating).In other words, I'd start my ranking of Bledsoe at QB20. Then I'd probably drop him slightly because of age. Then I'd bump him up significantly because of TO. Then I'd drop him down a touch because of the concussions and Romo factor. He'd probably end up at around QB16 on my list.

But anyone using a baseline of QB6 instead of a baseline of QB19 (I'd remove Josh McCown from the list; Aaron Brooks, Drew Brees and Kerry Collins all rank ahead of Bledsoe, but obviously Phillip Rivers isn't on the list...so I'd still probably begin with a baseline where the NO QB, SD QB and OAK QB rank ahead of the DAL QB) is going to be wrong more often than not.

A simple example is Steve McNair. Both players had slightly easier than average SOS. And while in standard leagues Bledsoe ranked 6th and McNair ranked 15th, Bledsoe ranked 17th in FP/AdjG and McNair ranked 15th. McNair averaged 17.6 FP in 13.1 adjusted games; Bledsoe scored 17.2 FP in 16 adjusted games.

If you want to move Bledsoe past McNair because McNair's injury prone, that's fine. But it's important to recognize -- and thus keep Bledsoe's projections in check -- that he wasn't very good when he was on the field last year. In fact, he was below average.

(Note: This is all about setting a baseline, and has nothing to do with TO. If you think TO is going to make QB20 into QB4, then I've got no problem with that -- at least on my current argument. But if you think TO is going to make QB6 into QB4 and now you have Bledsoe as QB4, that's where I think you're making a big mistake.)

Thanks Chase. I appreciate you taking the time to provide an in depth explanation on this with examples.

 

[David Yudkin]

Maybe Bledsoe gets to 30 TD, maybe he doesn't. But here's Parcells track record for passing TDs in a season.

NYG: 12, 22, 22, 22, 26, 22, 17

NEP: 17, 25, 14, 27

NYJ: 20, 33, 22

DAL: 17, 19, 23

His only year when the team had 30+ was his middle season with the Jets. That team got 96-931-6 from the RB corps in addition to having dual 1,000 yard WR in Keyshawn and Chrebet (who combined for 18 TD).

 

[Muahahaha]

Maybe Bledsoe gets to 30 TD, maybe he doesn't. But here's Parcells track record for passing TDs in a season.NYG: 12, 22, 22, 22, 26, 22, 17NEP: 17, 25, 14, 27NYJ: 20, 33, 22DAL: 17, 19, 23His only year when the team had 30+ was his middle season with the Jets. That team got 96-931-6 from the RB corps in addition to having dual 1,000 yard WR in Keyshawn and Chrebet (who combined for 18 TD).

Good point. What happened to Tony Dungy's passing TDs before/after the move to Indy?Good coaches adjust to their player personnel.

 

[QUEZILLA]

I have been getting good value on Brunell and Plummer as well.

 

[jafo]

I'm in the camp that thinks Bledsoe will have a good year, in terms of Fantasy production. I think he will be good for 25-30 TDs, assuming he stays healthy. With the addition of TO, Bledsoe should easily match last years production and then some.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm in the camp that thinks Bledsoe will have a good year, in terms of Fantasy production. I think he will be good for 25-30 TDs, assuming he stays healthy. With the addition of TO, Bledsoe should easily match last years production and then some.

Part of the problem in slotting or ranking Bledsoe is that last year was a down year for QB production while 2004 was a very strong year for QB production.A lot of QB missed a fair amount of time last year, so Bledsoe's #6 ranking in 2005 is somewhat muisleading. In a 4 pts per passing TD league, Bledsoe scored 274 fantasy points. But he was less than a fantasy point per game from ranking 13th. In 2004, that same point total (274 points) would have earned him a #12 ranking.I'm not saying that Bledsoe won't do better than last year, but it is possible that his total production will go up but his ranking could go down.

 

[Significant Shrinkage]

I'm in the camp that thinks Bledsoe will have a good year, in terms of Fantasy production. I think he will be good for 25-30 TDs, assuming he stays healthy. With the addition of TO, Bledsoe should easily match last years production and then some.

Part of the problem in slotting or ranking Bledsoe is that last year was a down year for QB production while 2004 was a very strong year for QB production.A lot of QB missed a fair amount of time last year, so Bledsoe's #6 ranking in 2005 is somewhat muisleading. In a 4 pts per passing TD league, Bledsoe scored 274 fantasy points. But he was less than a fantasy point per game from ranking 13th. In 2004, that same point total (274 points) would have earned him a #12 ranking.I'm not saying that Bledsoe won't do better than last year, but it is possible that his total production will go up but his ranking could go down.

This guy knows stuff. In terms of PPG, I would bet Bledsoe finishes around 6-8 for QB's, which is pretty solid, and affords you the opportunity to wait on a QB and then back him up w/ a Jake Plummer type

 

[jafo]

I'm in the camp that thinks Bledsoe will have a good year, in terms of Fantasy production. I think he will be good for 25-30 TDs, assuming he stays healthy. With the addition of TO, Bledsoe should easily match last years production and then some.

Part of the problem in slotting or ranking Bledsoe is that last year was a down year for QB production while 2004 was a very strong year for QB production.A lot of QB missed a fair amount of time last year, so Bledsoe's #6 ranking in 2005 is somewhat muisleading. In a 4 pts per passing TD league, Bledsoe scored 274 fantasy points. But he was less than a fantasy point per game from ranking 13th. In 2004, that same point total (274 points) would have earned him a #12 ranking.I'm not saying that Bledsoe won't do better than last year, but it is possible that his total production will go up but his ranking could go down.

The leagues I am in award 6 points per passing TD. I believe with similar scoring systems, Bledsoe could be a steal if you draft him late enough. The big caveat to this is staying healthy. I will say I'd much rather draft a guy like Plummer late over Bledsoe though if he was still available. For Bledsoe to keep a similar ranking to last year (which looks to be a feat after reviewing the data you presented), he will need to stay healthy and TO needs to be out there every week. Dallas also needs to win games and stay in the playoff hunt. I do see a lot of risk this year for Bledsoe, but sometimes it's these low risk, high reward guys that can make your season. If you draft Bledsoe this year, be sure to get great value for those earlier picks in the draft that you could have used on the higher ranking QBs.

 

[JuniorNB]

I'm putting Bledsoe in the same category as Kurt Warner this year. I think that both of them will end up as top five quarterbacks in points per games started. It's the "games started" part that worries me.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm putting Bledsoe in the same category as Kurt Warner this year. I think that both of them will end up as top five quarterbacks in points per games started. It's the "games started" part that worries me.

I posted in one of the other threads about Bledsoe that he's been exceedingly durable if you discount his collpased lung season when Brady took over.Other than that season, Bledsoe played in all but 3 games in 11 other seasons (173 of 176 games or 98%).

 

[moleculo]

This guy knows stuff. In terms of PPG, I would bet Bledsoe finishes around 6-8 for QB's, which is pretty solid, and affords you the opportunity to wait on a QB and then back him up w/ a Jake Plummer type

this is decent, but you have it backwards. Bledsoe should be backing up Plummer.

 

[Significant Shrinkage]

This guy knows stuff. In terms of PPG, I would bet Bledsoe finishes around 6-8 for QB's, which is pretty solid, and affords you the opportunity to wait on a QB and then back him up w/ a Jake Plummer type

this is decent, but you have it backwards. Bledsoe should be backing up Plummer.

They're pretty equal in my view, but I think Bledsoe has a slight edge w/ Owens on board. I'd probably play matchups if I had both

 

[shamrock84]

Two words for y'all... Tony Romo.

 

[Braxton]

I'm in the camp that thinks Bledsoe will have a good year, in terms of Fantasy production. I think he will be good for 25-30 TDs, assuming he stays healthy. With the addition of TO, Bledsoe should easily match last years production and then some.

Part of the problem in slotting or ranking Bledsoe is that last year was a down year for QB production while 2004 was a very strong year for QB production.A lot of QB missed a fair amount of time last year, so Bledsoe's #6 ranking in 2005 is somewhat muisleading. In a 4 pts per passing TD league, Bledsoe scored 274 fantasy points. But he was less than a fantasy point per game from ranking 13th. In 2004, that same point total (274 points) would have earned him a #12 ranking.I'm not saying that Bledsoe won't do better than last year, but it is possible that his total production will go up but his ranking could go down.

The leagues I am in award 6 points per passing TD. I believe with similar scoring systems, Bledsoe could be a steal if you draft him late enough. The big caveat to this is staying healthy. I will say I'd much rather draft a guy like Plummer late over Bledsoe though if he was still available. For Bledsoe to keep a similar ranking to last year (which looks to be a feat after reviewing the data you presented), he will need to stay healthy and TO needs to be out there every week. Dallas also needs to win games and stay in the playoff hunt. I do see a lot of risk this year for Bledsoe, but sometimes it's these low risk, high reward guys that can make your season. If you draft Bledsoe this year, be sure to get great value for those earlier picks in the draft that you could have used on the higher ranking QBs.

This is exactly the point of my original email (I started thread).He will be the steal of the draft for QB's. You can get him after 8th round in most 12 team leagues. He is even more valuable in leagues that reward 6 pts for passing TD's. Upon further thought, you should handcuff Romo to Bledsoe. Easy pick up off waivers.As someone posted earlier, you could probably get Plummer & Bledsoe late. I would draft Bledsoe after 11 QB's taken in a 12 team league. You can get RB depth, rather than waste rounds 4-7 with a QB pick. In my league, it's basic scoring - so only TD's count. In my league, Bledsoe will be top 5 QB. In performance leagues where passing TD's equal 4 pts, I'd rank him about QB8.So to round out my orginal post, you can steal him late. If you're uncomfortable with him as your #1 QB, you may be able to grab him as late as 10th round in a 12 team league.I would much rather have Bledsoe than Eli Manning (overated), Bulger (never finishes a season), Hasselbeck (you have to draft him too early, like rd 3-4), Brees (new system, new team), etc....If you get great RB & WR depth in rds 1-7, then Bledsoe has a great chance to make your playoff dreams come true. And the playoffs is what this is all about. Good luck to all! 1 day until Kickoff, woooohoooo!

 

[cr8f]

It's too early to annoit anyone the SOD.

He's been drafted in the top 10 and Owens is to big a question mark to know what he'll do.

Kitna could be. Who else? People drafted outside the top 10?

I like McNair.

 

[Todem]

Bledsoe will finish top 5 this season.

4000 yards and 30 TD's is very attainable with his weapons and that running game.

VALUE VALUE VALUE!!!!!

I was able to land him at 8.12 in a 12 teamer.

 

[Braxton]

Bledsoe will finish top 5 this season.4000 yards and 30 TD's is very attainable with his weapons and that running game.VALUE VALUE VALUE!!!!!I was able to land him at 8.12 in a 12 teamer.

Excellent! That is the perfect spot to draft him.Excuse me one second. Someone (in another reply) said they like McNair over Bledsoe? Bwwwwwwwahahahah. He'll go down by week 5 with yet another injury.

 

[Braxton]

I'm putting Bledsoe in the same category as Kurt Warner this year. I think that both of them will end up as top five quarterbacks in points per games started. It's the "games started" part that worries me.

I posted in one of the other threads about Bledsoe that he's been exceedingly durable if you discount his collpased lung season when Brady took over.Other than that season, Bledsoe played in all but 3 games in 11 other seasons (173 of 176 games or 98%).

Wow! Now that's Durable! Also, most people forget he's only 34. Quite young for someone who's been in the NFL for about 14 seasons.

 

[Big Cheese]

34 years old, ball control offense*, not a great line, NFC East defenses, pocket passer = bad things (TO or no TO).

*--The bump that both Garcia and McNabb got were also in West Coast pass happy offenses....Ask the Tuna about being pass happy.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm putting Bledsoe in the same category as Kurt Warner this year. I think that both of them will end up as top five quarterbacks in points per games started. It's the "games started" part that worries me.

It's hard for me to disagree with any statement more than this one. Warner's Cardinals ranked 4th in FP by QBs; but Warner himself ranked 22nd. This is because Warner missed lots of games, but when he -- and just as importantly, when anyone -- played for the Cardinals, they had great fantasy production. Arizona Team QB ranked 4th.Bledsoe's Cowboys ranked 14th in FP by QBs; but Bledsoe ranked 6th. This is because Bledsoe took every single snap for the Cowboys.Owens is an enigma, for lots of reasons, not the least of which is he's never played in a non-WCO as a pro.

 

[Chase Stuart]

I'm in the camp that thinks Bledsoe will have a good year, in terms of Fantasy production. I think he will be good for 25-30 TDs, assuming he stays healthy. With the addition of TO, Bledsoe should easily match last years production and then some.

Part of the problem in slotting or ranking Bledsoe is that last year was a down year for QB production while 2004 was a very strong year for QB production.A lot of QB missed a fair amount of time last year, so Bledsoe's #6 ranking in 2005 is somewhat muisleading. In a 4 pts per passing TD league, Bledsoe scored 274 fantasy points. But he was less than a fantasy point per game from ranking 13th. In 2004, that same point total (274 points) would have earned him a #12 ranking.I'm not saying that Bledsoe won't do better than last year, but it is possible that his total production will go up but his ranking could go down.

The leagues I am in award 6 points per passing TD. I believe with similar scoring systems, Bledsoe could be a steal if you draft him late enough. The big caveat to this is staying healthy. I will say I'd much rather draft a guy like Plummer late over Bledsoe though if he was still available. For Bledsoe to keep a similar ranking to last year (which looks to be a feat after reviewing the data you presented), he will need to stay healthy and TO needs to be out there every week. Dallas also needs to win games and stay in the playoff hunt. I do see a lot of risk this year for Bledsoe, but sometimes it's these low risk, high reward guys that can make your season. If you draft Bledsoe this year, be sure to get great value for those earlier picks in the draft that you could have used on the higher ranking QBs.

This is exactly the point of my original email (I started thread).He will be the steal of the draft for QB's. You can get him after 8th round in most 12 team leagues. He is even more valuable in leagues that reward 6 pts for passing TD's. Upon further thought, you should handcuff Romo to Bledsoe. Easy pick up off waivers.As someone posted earlier, you could probably get Plummer & Bledsoe late. I would draft Bledsoe after 11 QB's taken in a 12 team league. You can get RB depth, rather than waste rounds 4-7 with a QB pick. In my league, it's basic scoring - so only TD's count. In my league, Bledsoe will be top 5 QB. In performance leagues where passing TD's equal 4 pts, I'd rank him about QB8.So to round out my orginal post, you can steal him late. If you're uncomfortable with him as your #1 QB, you may be able to grab him as late as 10th round in a 12 team league.I would much rather have Bledsoe than Eli Manning (overated), Bulger (never finishes a season), Hasselbeck (you have to draft him too early, like rd 3-4), Brees (new system, new team), etc....If you get great RB & WR depth in rds 1-7, then Bledsoe has a great chance to make your playoff dreams come true. And the playoffs is what this is all about. Good luck to all! 1 day until Kickoff, woooohoooo!

Bledsoe's ADP is QB10. Brees is QB18.

 

[LHUCKS]

The great thing about Bledsoe is that you can get him late enough to couple with another QB like Plummer/Warner and almost guarantee your squad some nice QB ppg. By waiting late your squad should already be stacked at RB/WR.

 

[redman]

I don't like the fact that Bledsoe is the least mobile QB in his division and is playing behind the worst o-line in the division, which has nasty, aggressive defenses all around.

Bledsoe's history has been to start hot and then cool down. I like him for the first 5-6 weeks, and then would plan on trading him at that time. Sell high.

 

[cstu]

Yes, you read that correctly. Drew Bledsoe, aka Statue Boy, will be a dangerous weapon this year.Terry Glenn, Jason Witten, and yes ... TO (who I can't stand, but is ridiculously good) will guarantee 30 touchdowns. WRITE IT DOWN. I am not a Cowboys fan. I am not smoking anything. Watch the show begin.If you took Hasselbeck or Eli Manning before Bledsoe, YOU MISSED the BOAT.I got him QB12 in a 12 team league. I predict. Manning 34 TD's 4000 ydsC. Palmer 31 TD's 3800 ydsD. Bledsoe 30-32 TD's and 3900 yds.At the very least, he'll make top 5 QB in almost all formats.Let the show begin!

If healthy I agree, with that line and no ability to evade the rush I dont think he will last the year!!! Make sure you have a solid backup.

The only time in his career that he missed time was when he was out of the pocket running out of bounds. Getting hit hard in the pocket is something he can handle.