DSTs that are poised to make a leap (aka Wade Phillips Award nominees) (1 Viewer)

[ignatiusjreilly]

Back when Wade Phillips was still bouncing around the league, a good rule of thumb was to always target his team's DST the first year he took over as DC. Houston, Broncos, Rams all became elite. Even better from a fantasy perspective, those Ds could generally be acquired with a next-to-last round pick. One of my iron-clad rules of fantasy is that I will reach one round at most for my DST pick, and even then usually only if I'm going to be picking early in the third-to-last round (and therefore late in the next-to-last). Using an earlier pick on a supposed "elite" D almost never works out. That probably means I'll never get the high-profile ones like Cowboys, Niners or Bills.

With that in mind, what are the Ds that you see making the leap this year, either because of a new DC or for other reasons? (One good thing about how the NFL works is that while retread OCs like Garrett or McAdoo almost always flame out, veteran DCs can often have a huge impact).

• Dolphins -- this is the obvious choice, having added Vic Fangio to what was already a talented young D. The two risks are a) Ramsey's injury and b) the hype pushing up their ADP too high.
• Browns -- Schwartz doesn't have as strong a track record as Fangio (or Phillips back in the day) but he has improved a lot of defenses (Bills, Eagles) when he took over. The only really crappy D he ever had was the Lions when he was HC
• Panthers -- Evero isn't a grizzled veteran like the other guys, but he did a great job in a crappy situation last year, and Carolina has some talent on that side of the ball
• Texans -- a bit of a cheat since the main addition is at HC, not DC, but Houston is another D that could surprise. I definitely see them a tier below the others, particularly because even if they do end up being good, you might not see that in the early part of the season, and feel compelled to drop them before they round into form
• Pats -- obviously no major coaching changes, and Belichick's rep alone is probably going to be enough to push their ADP too high, but I think they're going to be very good. This is one I would definitely consider grabbing a round early (but no further)

Who else ya got?

 

[need2know]

Baltimore

 

[Bozeman Bruiser]

I don't know if they will make a leap but the Saints have a nice schedule the first 6 weeks, may be a good cheap option to start with and then grab the hot defense off waivers for the stretch.

Week 1: vs. Titans
Week 2: at Panthers
Week 3: at Packers
Week 4: vs. Buccaneers
Week 5: at Patriots
Week 6: at Texans

 

[BobbyLayne]

I don't know if they will make a leap but the Saints have a nice schedule the first 6 weeks, may be a good cheap option to start with and then grab the hot defense off waivers for the stretch.

Week 1: vs. Titans
Week 2: at Panthers
Week 3: at Packers
Week 4: vs. Buccaneers
Week 5: at Patriots
Week 6: at Texans

This is DST I've been thinking about the most.

We don't actually know who is good rn, we never know in August. We think we do, we're mostly wrong. Having a solid DST with a soft early schedule gives you a little runway to figure out who are the best teams this year.

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

DST has become such an afterthought (or non-existent) these days in most leagues.

I expect DAL will make the leap from good to elite this year.

These should be markedly better:
MIA
CLE
NOS
LAC

 

[Maroki]

I think the Browns are the ones likely to make the biggest jump. D-Line is better than last year, pass rush is better, LB is better and the coach is better.

I am not sure where the Pats defence makes a leap to. In both the Leagues I play that still uses DST they have finished 1,17,2,1 over the last 4 seasons. If they truly make a leap then they are going to be in league winning DST territory.

 

[Timmay]

Saints: Weak schedule and as long as Cam Jordan is healthy, you should get some points.

Jaguars: Young hungry team, Came on strong at end of year. Josh Allen and Travon Walker interest me. 2 rookie QB starts in their division and possibly at some point 3 with Will Levis.

Bengals: Underrated group. The defensive line has been flying all over the place in preseason. Great front 7 all around. Healthy Awuzie.

Every year I get fooled by the Browns defense, not this year.

 

[MrJimiT]

I can't believe I'm actually typing this, but, Detroit Lions could possibly be one of those "make a leap" team defenses. They did much better in the end of 2022 season. The D-Line is going to be 1 more year experienced. The back field has been wholesale changed out with veteran players. However, their schedule is softer in the second half of 2023 season and relatively tough in first half. For a fantasy defense, it's tough to tell. But they are in the bottom group of teams on just about every ranking list I have viewed.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I expect DAL will make the leap from good to elite this year.

Dallas was the No. 2 fantasy defense last year after being No. 1 in 2021. In what world is that only "good"?

Dallas is absolutely elite and will almost certainly be one of the first DSTs drafted in every draft

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I think the Browns are the ones likely to make the biggest jump. D-Line is better than last year, pass rush is better, LB is better and the coach is better.

I am not sure where the Pats defence makes a leap to. In both the Leagues I play that still uses DST they have finished 1,17,2,1 over the last 4 seasons. If they truly make a leap then they are going to be in league winning DST territory.

Yeah, I hadn't realized they finished No. 1 last year. So yeah, you almost certainly won't be able to get them late.

BTW, the other type of D that gets overdrafted is the elite overall team (KC, Philly). The assumption is that they'll win a lot of games and therefore the D will get lots of chances for sacks and turnovers. Which isn't bad logic. But they won't likely be worth their ADP. Better strategy is to try to figure out which team will be this year's version of the Eagles

 

[InDitkaWeTrust]

I expect DAL will make the leap from good to elite this year.

Dallas was the No. 2 fantasy defense last year after being No. 1 in 2021. In what world is that only "good"?

Dallas is absolutely elite and will almost certainly be one of the first DSTs drafted in every draft

Our league is heavily DST premium. In addition to the normal INT/SACK/FUM points, we include negative points for POINTS ALLOWED as well as YARDS ALLOWED. DAL was 5th in our league, mainly due to their inability to stop the pass and allowing 20+ PPG. They have addressed the secondary and pass rush this offseason, so I think they will be a good bit better.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I'll second the Browns votes. Schwartz is a pretty good DC.

 

[Gally]

I like Flores going to Minny and they should pressure more which could lead to TO's and sacks. I like them as a late flyer for early and see what they do.

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

I like Flores going to Minny and they should pressure more which could lead to TO's and sacks. I like them as a late flyer for early and see what they do.

Forgot about Minny. That's a good pick. Flores is a difference maker at DC

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

JAX seems to be going a bit under the radar.

They get 2 rookie QBs 2x ea in HOU & INDY, and the Titans aren’t exactly an offensive powerhouse. If you miss the elite D/STs, they might be worth a flier.

 

[-OZ-]

I can't believe I'm actually typing this, but, Detroit Lions could possibly be one of those "make a leap" team defenses. They did much better in the end of 2022 season. The D-Line is going to be 1 more year experienced. The back field has been wholesale changed out with veteran players. However, their schedule is softer in the second half of 2023 season and relatively tough in first half. For a fantasy defense, it's tough to tell. But they are in the bottom group of teams on just about every ranking list I have viewed.

My two “favorite” teams are the two cheap defenses I’ll target. Lions and titans. Detroit being the higher priority.

 

[Nero]

I'm also on Detroit

 

[BobbyLayne]

Detroit will be a popular sleeper but just remember they have a lot of dudes who have never played together. They have a talented defensive backfield but there were some communication issues yesterday that resulted in a 60 yard uncontested bomb to Ridley. DL has a nice solid rotation, although if Hutchinson is Batman I don't know if we know who his Robin will be. Linebacker is stacked, Jack Campbell is going to be a thing. But I expect them to give up a lot of chunk plays at times bc that's what happens when you play Cover Zero and send 5-6 guys. Will be glorious when it works but the CBs will be on an island a fair amount.

 

[GoBears84]

Green Bay - they were the #1 DEF the last 5 weeks of the FF Season. Browns were also very good.