Dunn had surgery today and will miss 6 weeks (1 Viewer)

[sholditch]

herniated disc surgery can be a very tricky thing. I don't doubt that Dunn will have the best doctor, but I could easily see Norwood getting 275+ with Vick gone and Dunn coming back from surgery, plus being 32 and obviously on the downward slope of a great career. Last year the Falcons rushed 537 times, 508 coming from Norwood (99), Vick (123), and Dunn (286). Even if Norwood only gets half the Vick+Dunn carries and keeps his 99, that's over 300 carries for the year. It's not like the Falcons now have a passing attack to fall back on. Those rushes have to go somewhere and chances are the 2nd year back with some proven success will get them. So assuming he only gets half and the increased pressure drops his ypc a full 2 yards, then we're looking at 300 touches at 4.4 ypc for 1320 rushing plus whatever he gets receiving. Those are 2nd round numbers, assuming he gets somewhere near 10 TDs.

 

[Sidewinder]

... I also wonder how many of Norwoods carries were when the defense was in the nickel.

FWIW -His two long TDs (78 yds vs Ariz, 69 yds at Wash) were both on first and ten, each early in the 4th quarter, and with Atlanta ahead in both games (up 22-10 vs Ariz, up 17-14 at Wash).

 

[lebowski]

herniated disc surgery can be a very tricky thing. I don't doubt that Dunn will have the best doctor, but I could easily see Norwood getting 275+ with Vick gone and Dunn coming back from surgery, plus being 32 and obviously on the downward slope of a great career. Last year the Falcons rushed 537 times, 508 coming from Norwood (99), Vick (123), and Dunn (286). Even if Norwood only gets half the Vick+Dunn carries and keeps his 99, that's over 300 carries for the year. It's not like the Falcons now have a passing attack to fall back on. Those rushes have to go somewhere and chances are the 2nd year back with some proven success will get them. So assuming he only gets half and the increased pressure drops his ypc a full 2 yards, then we're looking at 300 touches at 4.4 ypc for 1320 rushing plus whatever he gets receiving. Those are 2nd round numbers, assuming he gets somewhere near 10 TDs.

Can Norwood handle that type of load?

 

[Iceman56751]

Norwood was a stud in college.

He weighs 225 pounds now, far from a string bean.

I think Harrington is an upgrade to the passing game for the Falcons, which means what they gainin the passing attack they lose in Vick's mobility.

Upgrade Jenkins, Crumpler and Horn.

Norwood as well, Petrino will pass a lot out of the backfield.

 

[LHUCKS]

Norwood was a stud in college.

so was Ron Dayne

He weighs 225 pounds now, far from a string bean.

Not the ideal physical makeup, but it is nice he's put on some pounds

I think Harrington is an upgrade to the passing game for the Falcons, which means what they gainin the passing attack they lose in Vick's mobility.

similar career completion percentages, but Joey has had less opportunity so it's possible

Upgrade Jenkins, Crumpler and Horn.

agree on this

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Norwood will fall apart if he has to shoulder a high amount of carries.

That will leave Joey Harrington passing to catch up in games.

Watch out for Roddy White to break out this year.

 

[bcr8f]

Norwood was a stud in college.He weighs 225 pounds now, far from a string bean.I think Harrington is an upgrade to the passing game for the Falcons, which means what they gainin the passing attack they lose in Vick's mobility.Upgrade Jenkins, Crumpler and Horn.Norwood as well, Petrino will pass a lot out of the backfield.

I hope you're right but in college Petrino liked the long passing game.

 

[rascal]

Norwood weighs 225? Can I see a link to that?

 

[sholditch]

herniated disc surgery can be a very tricky thing. I don't doubt that Dunn will have the best doctor, but I could easily see Norwood getting 275+ with Vick gone and Dunn coming back from surgery, plus being 32 and obviously on the downward slope of a great career. Last year the Falcons rushed 537 times, 508 coming from Norwood (99), Vick (123), and Dunn (286). Even if Norwood only gets half the Vick+Dunn carries and keeps his 99, that's over 300 carries for the year. It's not like the Falcons now have a passing attack to fall back on. Those rushes have to go somewhere and chances are the 2nd year back with some proven success will get them. So assuming he only gets half and the increased pressure drops his ypc a full 2 yards, then we're looking at 300 touches at 4.4 ypc for 1320 rushing plus whatever he gets receiving. Those are 2nd round numbers, assuming he gets somewhere near 10 TDs.

Can Norwood handle that type of load?

He handled that type of load in college for three years with a paper-thin o-line, a terrible QB, no one at receiver, etc. Seriously, he was the lone talent in a veritable wasteland, and still managed to have an outstanding career. Don't underrate that. Backs like Bush and Maroney and Williams got all the pub because they had real teams around them. I am not exaggerating a bit when I say that Missy State was so bad they made teams like Vandy and Kentucky look GREAT by comparison. Remember, this is a team that lost to UAB for chrissakes. No one can predict injuries, but if his college career is any indication (and I still maintain there is no better litmus test outside of playing in the NFL than playing SEC defenses) he is more than ready for 300 carries.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Norwood weighs 225? Can I see a link to that?

I'd like to see that as well since that's about 25 pounds more than he played at last year.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

herniated disc surgery can be a very tricky thing. I don't doubt that Dunn will have the best doctor, but I could easily see Norwood getting 275+ with Vick gone and Dunn coming back from surgery, plus being 32 and obviously on the downward slope of a great career. Last year the Falcons rushed 537 times, 508 coming from Norwood (99), Vick (123), and Dunn (286). Even if Norwood only gets half the Vick+Dunn carries and keeps his 99, that's over 300 carries for the year. It's not like the Falcons now have a passing attack to fall back on. Those rushes have to go somewhere and chances are the 2nd year back with some proven success will get them. So assuming he only gets half and the increased pressure drops his ypc a full 2 yards, then we're looking at 300 touches at 4.4 ypc for 1320 rushing plus whatever he gets receiving. Those are 2nd round numbers, assuming he gets somewhere near 10 TDs.

Can Norwood handle that type of load?

He handled that type of load in college for three years with a paper-thin o-line, a terrible QB, no one at receiver, etc. Seriously, he was the lone talent in a veritable wasteland, and still managed to have an outstanding career. Don't underrate that. Backs like Bush and Maroney and Williams got all the pub because they had real teams around them. I am not exaggerating a bit when I say that Missy State was so bad they made teams like Vandy and Kentucky look GREAT by comparison. Remember, this is a team that lost to UAB for chrissakes. No one can predict injuries, but if his college career is any indication (and I still maintain there is no better litmus test outside of playing in the NFL than playing SEC defenses) he is more than ready for 300 carries.

Memphis and Minnesota aren't powerhouses either....they are better than Mississippi State...but aren't the USC's of the world.I believe that Norwood is getting too much hype for only a few good runs last season. This happens with many young backs, but i don't see his frail frame holding up over the long run.

 

[Mystery Achiever]

Here's a quote from Dunn:

"After the OTA (organized team activities) workouts, I felt some discomfort in my back and legs that just never subsided," said Dunn, who is entering his 11th season. "After consulting with the medical staff, it was recommended that we have the surgery.

"The doctors told me that the discomfort would have lingered throughout the 2007 season had we not had the surgery, so I felt this was the best course of action for me."

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=Arny...t&type=lgns

 

[sholditch]

herniated disc surgery can be a very tricky thing. I don't doubt that Dunn will have the best doctor, but I could easily see Norwood getting 275+ with Vick gone and Dunn coming back from surgery, plus being 32 and obviously on the downward slope of a great career. Last year the Falcons rushed 537 times, 508 coming from Norwood (99), Vick (123), and Dunn (286). Even if Norwood only gets half the Vick+Dunn carries and keeps his 99, that's over 300 carries for the year. It's not like the Falcons now have a passing attack to fall back on. Those rushes have to go somewhere and chances are the 2nd year back with some proven success will get them. So assuming he only gets half and the increased pressure drops his ypc a full 2 yards, then we're looking at 300 touches at 4.4 ypc for 1320 rushing plus whatever he gets receiving. Those are 2nd round numbers, assuming he gets somewhere near 10 TDs.

Can Norwood handle that type of load?

He handled that type of load in college for three years with a paper-thin o-line, a terrible QB, no one at receiver, etc. Seriously, he was the lone talent in a veritable wasteland, and still managed to have an outstanding career. Don't underrate that. Backs like Bush and Maroney and Williams got all the pub because they had real teams around them. I am not exaggerating a bit when I say that Missy State was so bad they made teams like Vandy and Kentucky look GREAT by comparison. Remember, this is a team that lost to UAB for chrissakes. No one can predict injuries, but if his college career is any indication (and I still maintain there is no better litmus test outside of playing in the NFL than playing SEC defenses) he is more than ready for 300 carries.

Memphis and Minnesota aren't powerhouses either....they are better than Mississippi State...but aren't the USC's of the world.I believe that Norwood is getting too much hype for only a few good runs last season. This happens with many young backs, but i don't see his frail frame holding up over the long run.

They also don't play in the SEC, which is the toughest conference there is. Which is kinda why I think the accomplishments of Cutler and Norwood are so significant. Anyone can pile up huge stats against swiss cheese defenses. And honestly, even Memphis was leagues better than Miss State.Falcons site lists him at 5'11" 204, not huge, but certainly no more frail than the guy that had major success there before him. Frail, whatta joke.

http://www.atlantafalcons.com/People/Playe...us_Norwood.aspx

 

[BigRed]

There goes the Norwood sleeper

 

[LHUCKS]

There goes the Norwood sleeper

exactly, this wasn't exactly good news for those hoping to snag Norwood on the cheap in re-drafts.

 

[Lash]

In 74 career games, Vick has a 53.7 completion %, 11,505 yards and 71 TDsIn 70 career games, Harrington has a 55.2 completion %, 12,478 yards and 72 TDs

ummm...and Harrington makes the opposing team set up a robber or two to 'account' for him on the chance that the handoff is a fake handoff and he boots the opposite way with 4.2 speed?believe me, the running game WILL suffer and I own Norwood in 3 leaguesfrom experience (albeit in HS for whatever that is worth) when we had to shadow the great running QBs we faced, the difference is black and white on how much it caused our defense to suffer when trying to stop the RBs vs a team with a non-running QB... they were past the line of scrimmage most of the time before the defense took a sigh of relief that the QB didn't have it and we converged on the RB, too late to stop any play for a lossreminds me of the quote i heard from DeMarco Farr about McNair in the '99 Super Bowl <paraphrased because i can't rmember exact quote>"If he (McNair) would've run the ball on those last few plays they would've scored, we couldn't have stopped him from running if we'd had 15 players on defense"i also remember both Farr and Kevin Carter asking out of the game with 26 seconds left because they had chased McNair around for a couple plays in a row that looked like old Fran Tarkenton footage and Vermeil screaming "YOU WANT TO COME OUT OF THE SUPER BOWL ... WITH 26 SECONDS LEFT??!!!that is what a running QB does to the mentality of opposing defenses

 

[redman]

Jason "Sleeper" Snelling>hi

 

[sholditch]

everyone keeps talking about that guy but other than him being a big back I know zero about this kid. Anyone familiar with his career? stats? Combine performances? Zodiac sign, anything?

 

[Mystery Achiever]

everyone keeps talking about that guy but other than him being a big back I know zero about this kid. Anyone familiar with his career? stats? Combine performances? Zodiac sign, anything?

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=Arny...t&type=lgnsAppears to be a Capricorn.

 

[Block]

In 74 career games, Vick has a 53.7 completion %, 11,505 yards and 71 TDsIn 70 career games, Harrington has a 55.2 completion %, 12,478 yards and 72 TDs

ummm...and Harrington makes the opposing team set up a robber or two to 'account' for him on the chance that the handoff is a fake handoff and he boots the opposite way with 4.2 speed?believe me, the running game WILL suffer and I own Norwood in 3 leaguesfrom experience (albeit in HS for whatever that is worth) when we had to shadow the great running QBs we faced, the difference is black and white on how much it caused our defense to suffer when trying to stop the RBs vs a team with a non-running QB... they were past the line of scrimmage most of the time before the defense took a sigh of relief that the QB didn't have it and we converged on the RB, too late to stop any play for a lossreminds me of the quote i heard from DeMarco Farr about McNair in the '99 Super Bowl <paraphrased because i can't rmember exact quote>"If he (McNair) would've run the ball on those last few plays they would've scored, we couldn't have stopped him from running if we'd had 15 players on defense"i also remember both Farr and Kevin Carter asking out of the game with 26 seconds left because they had chased McNair around for a couple plays in a row that looked like old Fran Tarkenton footage and Vermeil screaming "YOU WANT TO COME OUT OF THE SUPER BOWL ... WITH 26 SECONDS LEFT??!!!that is what a running QB does to the mentality of opposing defenses

The "running game" will suffer, but the "running backs" won't. Less attempts and yardage for Vick= some more for RBs, even if the total pie is a bit smaller.

 

[Ketamine Dreams]

Norwood will fall apart if he has to shoulder a high amount of carries.That will leave Joey Harrington passing to catch up in games.Watch out for Roddy White to break out this year.

I never thought I'd see Roddy White and "break out" ever mentioned together...

 

[LBH]

Norwood weighs 225? Can I see a link to that?

I'd like to see that as well since that's about 25 pounds more than he played at last year.

No way he is at 225, but it was reported in the Atlanta paper(AJC) that he had bulked up to 210

 

[Mr. Pink]

herniated disc surgery can be a very tricky thing. I don't doubt that Dunn will have the best doctor, but I could easily see Norwood getting 275+ with Vick gone and Dunn coming back from surgery, plus being 32 and obviously on the downward slope of a great career. Last year the Falcons rushed 537 times, 508 coming from Norwood (99), Vick (123), and Dunn (286). Even if Norwood only gets half the Vick+Dunn carries and keeps his 99, that's over 300 carries for the year. It's not like the Falcons now have a passing attack to fall back on. Those rushes have to go somewhere and chances are the 2nd year back with some proven success will get them. So assuming he only gets half and the increased pressure drops his ypc a full 2 yards, then we're looking at 300 touches at 4.4 ypc for 1320 rushing plus whatever he gets receiving. Those are 2nd round numbers, assuming he gets somewhere near 10 TDs.

Can Norwood handle that type of load?

He handled that type of load in college for three years with a paper-thin o-line, a terrible QB, no one at receiver, etc. Seriously, he was the lone talent in a veritable wasteland, and still managed to have an outstanding career. Don't underrate that. Backs like Bush and Maroney and Williams got all the pub because they had real teams around them. I am not exaggerating a bit when I say that Missy State was so bad they made teams like Vandy and Kentucky look GREAT by comparison. Remember, this is a team that lost to UAB for chrissakes. No one can predict injuries, but if his college career is any indication (and I still maintain there is no better litmus test outside of playing in the NFL than playing SEC defenses) he is more than ready for 300 carries.

Memphis and Minnesota aren't powerhouses either....they are better than Mississippi State...but aren't the USC's of the world.I believe that Norwood is getting too much hype for only a few good runs last season. This happens with many young backs, but i don't see his frail frame holding up over the long run.

They also don't play in the SEC, which is the toughest conference there is. Which is kinda why I think the accomplishments of Cutler and Norwood are so significant. Anyone can pile up huge stats against swiss cheese defenses. And honestly, even Memphis was leagues better than Miss State.Falcons site lists him at 5'11" 204, not huge, but certainly no more frail than the guy that had major success there before him. Frail, whatta joke.

http://www.atlantafalcons.com/People/Playe...us_Norwood.aspx

I gotta jump on board with Sholditch here. The SEC is just a brutal conference, especially defensively. Defensive team speed is in abundance in that conference....just ask Ohio State. I'm a Bama fan who watched Norwood carve the Tide up live. Although his team didn't prevail on that night, he impressed the heck out of me. The guy is a player. OBTW, just a couple of guys on the Bama defense that Norwood went up against that night:

LB-DeMeco Ryans - 2006 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year

DE-Mark Anderson - 2nd place, 2006 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year

Just something to chew on.

 

[joffer]

Atlanta loses their starting RB and Starting QB, other than Norwood, NO ONE gets upgraded.

 

[LHUCKS]

I gotta jump on board with Sholditch here. The SEC is just a brutal conference, especially defensively. Defensive team speed is in abundance in that conference

I completely agree with this...if a runningback excelled in the SEC I bump him up a few notches for certain.

 

[NoFBinLA]

Atlanta loses their starting RB and Starting QB, other than Norwood, NO ONE gets upgraded.

Although honestly, it keeps Crumpler from dropping too far - Harrington will swing out to him more than if Dunn were there, I think.

But yeah, I ain't looking to the Falcs for value other than Norwood right now.

 

[Lash]

I gotta jump on board with Sholditch here. The SEC is just a brutal conference, especially defensively. Defensive team speed is in abundance in that conference....just ask Ohio State. I'm a Bama fan who watched Norwood carve the Tide up live.

i'll also agree with thisit's funny how the question from the media went from ... "is the Ohio State 2006 team one of the greatest college teams of all time?" ... to ... "Will they get a first down this game?"i am an SEC (especially Vol) fan but i have never felt sorry for a team i was rooting against til that night ... those poor buckeyes

 

[RamMan]

CBS Sportsline now reporting that Dunn will miss 3 - 4 weeks. Not the 6 weeks originally reported by ESPN:

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/10268912

Even so, this could very well be the break Norwood needs to grab onto the starting job and never look back.

 

[BigRed]

I have to wonder if maybe Dunn won't end up the sleeper play -

 

[Anthony Borbely]

CBS Sportsline now reporting that Dunn will miss 3 - 4 weeks. Not the 6 weeks originally reported by ESPN:

http://www.sportsline.com/nfl/story/10268912

Even so, this could very well be the break Norwood needs to grab onto the starting job and never look back.

The article on ESPN.com says 3-4 weeks now as well.

 

[Biabreakable]

1st of all I don't see any reason to back up the idea that Norwood cannot handle the ammount of carries of a feature RB. Why do people think this?

Norwood has ideal size and was a feature RB in college as well as proving to be explosive and capable of breaking big plays at the NFL level as a rookie.

I do not consider it a negative that Norwood did not win a feature RB role as a rookie when his compitition was Warrick Dunn. Dunn has been a very good football player his whole career that many have underestimated. There is no shame in a rookie having to understudy Dunn.

With these injury issues to Dunn and Dunn now being 32 years old the odds are greatly against Dunn maintaining the ammount of carries he had last year. This may be the sign of Dunn being done and now passing the torch to Norwood.

There has been some talk about RB touches being more of an indicator of RB career decline than age. I think how Dunn fares this season will be a good test of these 2 view points and which one is more true than the other.

Dunn has overcome every doubt and great adversity throughout his career. It is possible he could do this yet again and get significant touches once recovered from this surgurey if he does not have lingering effects or a relapse.

People seem to think the new HC has a specific body type for RBs he will employ in his offense and that Dunn/Norwood do not fit that profile. If the HC is any good he will be able to make the most of the telent and skill sets of his best players rather than trying to replicate what he did at the college level. I guess we will see but I do not see a big RB with speed but no agility being a pre-requisite for success running the ball. In fact using RBs like this out of spread offenses in the past has not been very successful in the NFL. The run and shoot offense as a primary alignment and strategy has failed to produce wins in the NFL over and over again. Using a big RB out of such an alignment is playing mismatches with the defense but I do not see any of the other RB on the Falcons being more talented or as producitve out of this alignment than Norwood will be.

 

[greenheads]

I've got Norwood as a 7th rd keeper in my money league.

 

[Truman]

everyone keeps talking about that guy but other than him being a big back I know zero about this kid. Anyone familiar with his career? stats? Combine performances? Zodiac sign, anything?

He's not that big.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bHlQEMDMydc...ted&search=

Enjoy.

A lot of Norwood's carries came late in the game when the falcons were running out the clock, so he didn;t face a heap of nickel packages.

 

[joffer]

I've got Norwood as a 7th rd keeper in my money league.

 

[sholditch]

with the news that Dunn will only be out 4-weeks, does he regain some of his sleeper status? Will be interesting to see where his ADP goes over the next few days. Also, if anyone is attending Falcons camp, and not doing so to protest, hhow bout telling us how Norwood looks running with the first team? All of a sudden, this is the third most important RB camp besides Minny and Carolina.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

with the news that Dunn will only be out 4-weeks, does he regain some of his sleeper status? Will be interesting to see where his ADP goes over the next few days. Also, if anyone is attending Falcons camp, and not doing so to protest, hhow bout telling us how Norwood looks running with the first team? All of a sudden, this is the third most important RB camp besides Minny and Carolina.

I'd like to see how the Dallas backfield shakes out too.

 

[s_ezy]

with the news that Dunn will only be out 4-weeks, does he regain some of his sleeper status? Will be interesting to see where his ADP goes over the next few days. Also, if anyone is attending Falcons camp, and not doing so to protest, hhow bout telling us how Norwood looks running with the first team? All of a sudden, this is the third most important RB camp besides Minny and Carolina.

I'd like to see how the Dallas backfield shakes out too.

i have a RB from each of those 4 teams, and will be watching closely

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I have to wonder if maybe Dunn won't end up the sleeper play -

 

[kensat30]

Norwood gets a huge bump up

definitely a bump, but I still don't see him being a feature back, he's just not built for it. I have him moving from a 6th/7th round pick to a late 4th now, but he didn't leapfrog any backs of consequence in my rankings. I still think young backs like DeAngelo and Lynch offer better upside with about the same downside, and vets like Green and Deuce, while lacking the upside, offset that with a lack of downside. I think Norwood's best chance to put up big numbers is if the Falcons decide use him like a Bush/Westbrook type. I don't know if he can split out, but I think he'll need touches in space to make an impact. Harrington will not be able to keep defenses honest.Jason Snelling and Ovie Mughelli become more interesting fantasy RBs with this development.

His last two years in college he average 17 to 17.5 carries per game with almost a 6 ypc.

18 carries a game seems like the absolute ceiling to me. He missed two games with knee injuries last year, and that was in limited duty. I just don't see how a guy with his little stick legs and slight frame can hold up under a full feature back load. If they try to feed him 300 carries (18X16 =288), I don't think he'll last. The optimal workload for him would be something like 200-225 carries with 50+ catches, anything more and I think he ends up on the shelf.

Doesn't stop people from taking Reggie Bush in the first round.

 

[Mr. Fusion]

I love Dunn but him wearing down was inevitable.

That being said, I think Norwood is in for a very good year. Losing Vick may not help their win/loss percentage, but Harrington isn't likely to run for many yards or vulture any TDs. They may have to lean on Norwood heavily.