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Week 11 Predictions (1 Viewer)

travdogg

Footballguy
There used to be a thread a few years ago, where each game got a little attention with start/sits and matchups. Nothing to do at work today, so I'm volunteering myself to give it a try.

Cardinals at Seahawks(-3) 57 o/u

I don't think this is going to be the shoot out it was a few weeks ago. Both teams are a little more banged up, and its on a short week. Lockett feels like he could be a decoy in this game, and is a guy I'm looking to sit if I have other options. If Lockett is out, David Moore feels like a plug and play WR2. I like Hyde a ton tonight, I think Seattle will perhaps play a little more old-school Seahawks ball, and look to keep Murray off the field. Seahawks o-line has also been cracking some leaks of late leading to Wilson taking some big hits.

Metcalf and Hopkins should both get theirs. I think the Cardinals RBs cannibalize each other too much to trust as anything other than flex plays. Despite last week, I prefer Edmonds to Drake. I think its possible/likely that Murray leads the Cardinals in rushing.

I like Seattle and the under.

Eagles at Browns(-3) 47.5 o/u

Philly's offense is a mess right now. I really don't know what the fix is either. A matchup with a good Browns team that limits possessions isn't likely to help. I could envision a scenario where Wentz puts up numbers in garbage time, but I'm not excited about anyone in this offense, though Sanders is a tough sit whenever he plays.

The Browns just bully people right now, and the Eagles will likely be no different. Chubb and Hunt should both have success(prefer Chubb) and I think that should lead to some success off PA, which i think will make Landry a better start than normal. Hooper isn't a bad TE, despite doing nothing a week ago, he's a top-10 option in my opinion. 

I like Cleveland and the under. 

Falcons at Saints(-4.5) 52 o/u

This is a really good time to catch the Saints for Atlanta. Getting Ridley back should make Ryan a top-10 option this week, and Julio and Ridley are must starts when active. I could see Gage getting in the act too, as the Saints are hit/miss on slot WRs. Don't love Gurley, but he does fall into the end zone quite a bit. Not hard to see him around 50 yards though.

I'd feel a lot better if Taysom Hill were starting. I thought Winston looked pretty awful in relief of Brees on Sunday, and seemed to not trust his reads. Kamara is suddenly looking like a GTD, and if he's out I don't know how excited I'd be about Murray with Brees also out. One guy who may not miss Brees, is Michael Thomas, who owns the Falcons, and benefits from Atlanta being a bit of a pass funnel.

I like Atlanta(to win) and the under. 

Bengals at Football Team(-1.5) 47 o/u

Feels like another missed week for Joe Mixon. Bernard has started ceding work to Perine and Williams of late, so he's not as plug and play as he as earlier in the year. More of a low-end RB2 than a quality start. Joe Burrow should have more success not facing the Steelers elite D this week, I thought he played solid given the matchup. Tee Higgins is WR9 over the last 4 games, but I think this sets up as more of a Tyler Boyd game. Higgins should get his still, I just like Boyd more.

Well he had a nice on-paper week, I thought Alex Smith still looks like a shell of his former self. I think that sets up for another big PPR week for McKissic. Gibson should also have success if the game stays close, but I trust McKissic a bit more. McLaurin is an autostart as essentially the only useful non RB. He's a lock for 7+ catches, though no lock for a TD. If desperate, I can see a case for Logan Thomas, but its TD or bust, which I guess is a lot of TE's right now.

I like Cincinnati(to win) and the under.

Lions(-1.5) at Panthers 48 o/u

Kenny Golladay is back just in time for Stafford to be banged up. Stafford is a warrior, and has performed great despite being hurt before, so I'm not downgrading him, but could change my mind if reports change. I love Golladay this week. He has an excellent matchup, and had either 100 yards or a TD in every game before injury. He could also see more looks than early in the year, with Amendola looking on the wrong side of questionable. Marvin Jones also has a nice matchup, and is a solid WR3. Hockenson is a bit banged up still, and could see a lower usage with Golladay back. I think he's in the 6-10 range at TE. Swift seems to have made his mark at RB, and may be a top-10 RB going forward. Carolina is a fine matchup.

Teddy Bridgewater looks likely to join CMC on the sidelines this week. Personally, I'd rather go Grier at QB(who was a solid prospect, though he looked very lost last year) over Walker. Eitehr way, I'm expecting some mistakes. However I also can't see the Lions defense stopping these weapons without a complete QB implosion. Mike Davis and DJ Moore would be my preferred plays. Davis should see 15+ touches, and the Lions get beat deep a lot, and that is Moore's role right now. Anderson has cooled some after a hot start, but he and Samuel will also likely be very involved and carry WR3 upside, where as Moore feels like a boom/bust WR2.

I like Detroit and the over.

Steelers(-10) at Jaguars 46 o/u

This feels like a one-sided game to me. I do have some concerns about the Steelers taking their foot off the gas in this one. That said, I'd start everyone, but I think its more floor than upside this week. I'd rank the WRs JuJu>Claypool>Johnson for this week, as the Jags are especially vulnerable in the slot. The one guy I probably like a bit more than normal is Ebron. I do worry slightly that Conner cedes carries in a blowout, and ends up being a slight bust if he doesn't hit early.

I'm not sure I'd want to start anyone other than James Robinson on the Jags side. I guess Chark could hit as a WR3, but Luton against this defense scares the hell out of me. I'm expecting 2+ turnovers and 6+ sacks. I do think Robinson gets 20+ touches, and probably a third of them will be receptions.

I like Pittsburgh and the under.

Titans at Ravens(5.5) 49.5 o/u

This screams Derrick Henry monster game. Which should also open up the PA game that Tannehill thrives on. I think this game will be not all that different than the playoff game was, but maybe lower scoring. AJ Brown will likely see a lot of coverage, and with Humphries unlikely to return this week, I think Corey Davis is a sneaky WR2 this week. Could see Jonnu hitting the end zone as well, though he's been falling off of late.

Hot take, I don't think the Ravens are good right now. They have injury and I think general poor play issues. I think Andrews is basically a must start due to the state of the TE position, but I'm looking to sit everyone else, including Jackson if I can. Jackson has seemingly regressed to rookie year levels as a passer, and has huge o-line issues. 

I like Tennessee(to win) and the under.

Patriots(-2) at Texans 48.5 o/u

This feels like a shootout to me. Mostly due to neither team having a pass rush right now. Cam should have a solid game, and is a guy I'd be looking to plug in this week. Love Damien Harris, who has looked outstanding of late, and has an o-line that should open monster holes. I expect Meyers and Byrd to get some too. Don't sleep on Byrd hitting some big plays this week. He's a DFS play for me this week.

I'd start all your Texans this week, especially Fuller, who has top-5 upside, and Duke, who should see a lot of space. I could really see only 2-3 punts in this entire game. Could see Watson continuing his recent trend on rushing more as well.

I like Houston(to win) and the over.

Dolphins(-3.5) at Broncos 45 o/u

I really don't think Miami is as good as their record. The offense still has major issues, and I still think Tua hasn't really shown much. I also think Ahmed is fool's gold, and this isn't a great matchup with a pretty solid defense. I do like Parker as a WR3, and Jakeem Grant is a very appealing DFS play, but man this screams let down game.

Even a banged up Drew Lock is likely better than Brett Rypien. I do think the Broncos should have success rushing in this game, and would consider both Gordon and Lindsay as flex plays, I prefer Lindsay, due to his big play ability. I do think Tim Patrick is a better bet than Jerry Jeudy, despite recent target trends. This feels like an ugly game all around, with lots of turnovers.

I like the Broncos and the under. Ideally this is a stay away.

Jets at Chargers(9.5) 46.5 o/u

Looks like another Joe Flacco game, and while he played mostly solid against NE, I'd bet against it happening twice in a row. If the Jets had a bellcow RB, he'd be a solid RB2 this week, but I don't trust anyone to see enough volume to pay off. Gore>Perine I think, but that isn't hat it should be. Like Flacco, I'll bet against Perriman having 2 straight solid games, I think that was mostly due to NE's lack of pass rush. I do like Crowder as a WR2 however, though its possible Chris Harris gets activated off IR this week.

Pretty much all your Chargers should be starting. Herbert should have his choice of guys to throw to, due to a lack of pass rush, and coverage. The Jets have just cut a starting CB, and out their top CB on IR. I feel dirty recommending Ballage, but 15+ touches against the Jets might make me valuable. Keenan Allen feels due for a monster game. I have him as my WR1 overall this week, due to the matchup. 10+ catches feels very possible.

I like the Chargers and the under.

Packers at Colts(1.5) 51.5 o/u

I'm betting on Adams playing, but perhaps not seeing a usual amount of snaps. He's a must start if active, as is Rodgers even in a tough matchup. Aaron Jones has quietly been pretty ineffective of late. The Colts have contained Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook, by his standards, this season. Jones is more of an RB2 this week. In his first week back, I'd temper expectations on Lazard, even if Adams sits, I'd prefer MVS.

The Colts are an elite team, that has blown a couple games where Rivers has had issues against good defenses. I think they'll have there way with a pretty meh Packers D. Nyheim Hines has been on fire of late, and is the exact type of RB the Packers most struggle with, which is elusive guys who can catch. I do think Taylor could get going here too. I'd call Hines an RB2, and Taylor a flex. While I like Pittman the most, I think there is too much uncertainty to trust any of the pass catchers. I do think Rivers is a solid fill in for Josh Allen/Drew Brees owners.

I like the Colts and the under.

Cowboys at Vikings(-7) 47.5 o/u

I get that Dallas is in a division title race, but I'd really like to see Gilbert get another start. Could always go back to Dalton if he bombs, but I thought he played well in as hard a first start matchup as possible. That said, it looks like Dalton will start, and that is probably good news for Amari Cooper, who Dalton has clearly favored as his WR1. I think Cooper could be a top-10 WR this week, against the Vikings very shaky CBs. Beyond that, I'm not sure I trust anyone in this offense. Maybe Lamb as a WR3, but I think the Vikings keep the clamps on Zeke. 

I think the Vikings offense has turned a corner. I do wish they'd pass more, but unlike Chicago, Dallas doesn't have the talent to slow down Cook. The PA game should be on point as well, and there is room for both Thielen and Jefferson to have big days. Like Rivers, I think Cousins is a solid Allen/Brees fill-in.

I like the Vikings and the under.

Chiefs(-8) at Raiders 57 o/u

Much like Cards/Seahawks, I expect this game to be lower scoring than the first meeting. I do wonder if the Bell might get more work coming out of the bye week. Nothing to base that on, other than a gut feeling, but I think he and CEH are flex plays this week. I think Sammy Watkins jumps right back into being the #2 WR, and is a solid start. I'm expecting more floor than ceiling from Hill/Kelce, though obviously they are top starts. 

With Jalen Richard looking doubtful, this could be a monster Josh Jacobs game. KC is already a run funnel, and the Raiders will happily oblige. Bold call, Jacobs is my RB2 overall behind Henry this week. I expect KC to limit big plays, so it could be more of a Renfrow/Waller week, than a Ruggs/Agholor week. Derek Carr is playing some great football of late, but the volume isn't there to trust hi as a fantasy start.

I like the Raiders(to win) and the under.

Rams at Buccaneers(-4) 48.5 o/u

I'm expecting a grind it out defensive battle here. If the Rams committed to 1 RB that guy would be an autostart, especially if it were Henderson. Alas, it'll likely be split 3 ways, which makes it unappealing. I prefer Henderson of the trio though. Tampa is weaker in the middle of the field than the outside, so perhaps Kupp and Higbee are solid starts, but I'd bet against Reynolds staying hot. I'd prefer to mostly avoid this offense if I could.

I worry that Tampa might have the same problems with the Rams that they had with the Saints, where the pass rush can constantly get there with 4. I think Tampa will be more run heavy to combat that. Both Jones and Fournette should be decent starts here. I'd be worried about all the pass catchers except maybe Godwin, as the Rams are most vulnerable in the slot. Gronk is a tough sit as well, but I have low expectations. I'd also have a hard time sitting Brady, but its easy to see him under 20 this week.

I like the Rams and the under. Id prefer to stay away here as well.

 
Tell me more why you like DJ Moore if Bridgewater is out. That game -- if both Teddy and Stafford aren't playing -- seems like a mess. If Stafford does play, I could see the Panthers needing to pass more to keep up. But this seems like a fantasy stay-away game.

Really having trouble getting a bead on Moore this week. It's a generally sound match up against one of the weaker pass Ds -- but if it isn't Teddy, I don't know if the Panthers can take advantage of it.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Tell me more why you like DJ Moore if Bridgewater is out. That game -- if both Teddy and Stafford aren't playing -- seems like a mess. If Stafford does play, I could see the Panthers needing to pass more to keep up. But this seems like a fantasy stay-away game.

Really having trouble getting a bead on Moore this week. It's a generally sound match up against one of the weaker pass Ds -- but if it isn't Teddy, I don't know if the Panthers can take advantage of it.
Basically the matchup. I did say boom/bust, but I think that a new QB will be asked to take some shots just because its what Detroit is weak at. Moore tends to be the guy who gets those shots.

I agree its a completely different game if Stafford is out too, but every indication from the Lions is that he's in little danger of missing the game.

 

Deamon

Footballguy
travdogg said:
There used to be a thread a few years ago, where each game got a little attention with start/sits and matchups. Nothing to do at work today, so I'm volunteering myself to give it a try.
Great write up.

However, I find it extremely unlikely that the under hits in 12 of 14 games.  You really think almost every single game will be under?  That's bold.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Great write up.

However, I find it extremely unlikely that the under hits in 12 of 14 games.  You really think almost every single game will be under?  That's bold.
I think Vegas might be overreacting to this being the highest scoring season to date. I didn't really think of it on an overall scale of how many games I thought would be unders, it just ended up that way on a game by game basis.

 

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