We asked four personnel execs, two offensive coordinators and a quarterbacks coach to break down each of the six first-round quarterback candidates…
Joe Burrow, r-Sr., LSU
Years as starter: 2. Notable number: 60-6 TD/INT ratio in 2019. Highest individual honor: 2019 Heisman Trophy. Team success: 2019 National Champion.
What the evaluators say …
AFC coordinator 1: "He’s one of the most accurate quarterbacks I’ve ever graded. You can say he had great players around him, but he put the ball in places where his receivers never have to break stride. It’s a gift. His guys are always moving forward with the ball. And his pocket movement is really natural, how he slides, moves, he has natural feel for the pocket."
AFC coordinator 2: "His decision-making, he just did a really good job of taking what was there. His arm strength, people talk about that, it’s plenty strong enough. Just watching him, he’s a complete guy that’s ready. I’m not sure he’s in the Andrew Luck category, but he’s pretty damn close. … [The one-year breakthrough] always does raise a red flag. However, the tape is so good, it’s hard to think it was a fluke, all the things he did well against that competition."
NFC exec 1: "He does need help. He’s not a guy who’s going to lift a team on his shoulders where you say, ‘We’re not gonna be a contender if not for him.’ He needs a line, needs receivers. I heard he said he wants A.J. [Green] to stay. Well, he’s got A.J. and needs A.J. He’s not a guy who’ll do it himself. But there’s not a Luck in this draft."
NFC exec 2: "He’s everything you think of in terms of a coach’s son. He runs practice like another coach, so he’ll come in with those intangibles. I think he’ll command respect early because of how he prepares. He was raised like that, competitive as hell, doesn’t like to miss a minute of practice, doesn’t want to waste a minute of practice. He’ll make every minute, every rep count. And it’d be one thing if he was at a Big Ten school, but to be from where he’s from, go there, best ball in the country, and be the Alpha in that program is impressive."
Tua Tagovailoa, Jr., Alabama
Years as starter: 2. Notable number: 199.4 career passer rating. Highest individual honor: 2018 Heisman Trophy runner-up. Team success: 2017 National Champion.
What the evaluators say …
NFC exec 3: "He’s a little more twitched up than Joe. He’s a good athlete. He’s also very accurate. He was really good over multiple seasons, so he got that over Burrow – really two full seasons at a high level. He’s got a good arm, maybe better than Burrow, still not great. He’s extremely instinctive. And he’s an outstanding leader, takes all the criticism, deflects all the praise. Can extend plays, very accurate. The negative is durability. I think he’s back there throwing 7-on-7 a lot, and there is pressure, you do see a little dropoff."
AFC QBs coach: "He may have had similar numbers to Burrow if he hadn’t gotten hurt. He also has really good dudes around him, like Joe. But as a player, he’s really clean, really a smooth player—clean feet, clean delivery, he resets really well, gets in proper alignment for his throws after resetting. And he’s really good with his eyes, he can move a safety, look down a defender to throw over the defense.. The ball’s out quick. He has a nice, tight stroke, the accuracy’s really good, he plays with two hands on the ball in the pocket. I think he’s a pretty darn good player."
NFC exec 4: "Accuracy, processing, getting rid of the ball quick, that’s all there. … [Durability] is a big concern. He doesn’t get out of trouble well. And when he does, he holds ball until the last second, and takes shots. Most shots he’s taking are because he’s waiting for the next progression to get open, and he trusts his line. In fact, on the play he got hurt, he should’ve gotten rid of the ball way sooner. He’s a competitor. So, it’s a strength, but it’s a weakness."
AFC coordinator 1: "God, his quickness and his setup is pretty outstanding. The best word, and I don’t like it at all the time, is he’s pretty twitchy. His setup and delivery are very fast, but never out of control. He anticipates well, throws it accurate. He has great receivers and does the same thing Burrow does with that—he puts it in a spot where they can take it and take off, and allows them to use their pure talent. … He’s such a violent thrower, you wonder what the hip injury will do to that; that’s the question I’d have for him."
Justin Herbert, Sr., Oregon
Years as starter: 4. Notable number: 10,541 career passing yards. Highest individual honor: 2017 First-Team Academic All-American. Team success: 2020 Rose Bowl champion.
NFC exec 2: "He was my favorite guy from Day 1. Every test, he passed [in Indy]—6-6, 236, runs 4.6, big frame, huge arm, four-year career. You don’t have the concern there you had with Burrow about one-year production. Senior bowl MVP, Rose Bowl MVP, Pac-12 champion, smart as hell. He’s not the culture changer, fire-breather, but how many guys are now? In terms of a guy that checks every box, he’s got it. … You have to get him under center, that’ll be where his strength is. It took [Jared] Goff time; he’d never been in huddle, never called a play either. So there could be bumps, yeah. But he’s smart enough, athletic enough, has no hesitation to learn to play under center. I’m telling you, I can’t remember what his major was, but the kid’s like a scientist. He’s just very smart. Nothing football-wise is difficult for him."
NFC exec 3: "I’m not a huge fan. In terms of create-a-player, that’s your guy. He’s a little bit like Brady Quinn, good and bad. The arm strength, athleticism, size, it’s how you’d draw them up. He did well at the end of the year, won the games at the end, and you love to see that. But in terms of being a natural thrower, he’s not natural, I thought he struggled at the Senior Bowl learning how to take a drop. He has things to improve. All the physical stuff is there, he’s just not a real natural thrower. And I haven’t seen the ‘it’ factor."
AFC coordinator 1: "His tape is tough to watch. I’m not sure the offense fit his skillset. He should be good in the NFL playing under center off play-action and getting the ball down the field. He’s that type of player. I don’t think they did that much at Oregon, it didn’t feel like it ever fit his skillset. And in the same sense, there were throws you cringe at, like, ‘Come on, man.’ The tape’s not nearly as clean as the other two. But the other two are throwing to what’ll probably be a total of six or seven first-round receivers when all those guys come through. Those two are the best players on the best teams, with the best guys catching pass. You look at Oregon, you don’t see the same talent, especially in the guys catching passes."
AFC coordinator 2: "I like him a lot, really smart. … Stuff that comes with new system, he can pick up quickly—that’s a strength. His arm is elite, up there at the top with anyone, maybe not [Aaron Rodgers], but can throw every ball, can go far hash to near sideline. I was impressed with his accuracy, how he got through progression, he’d get to no. 3, and rip it right on the facemask. And he has an ability to run better than most people think. His wiggle’s not great, but he can see the hole and chew up yards … The glaring thing: He’s never under center, so with his footwork, he does have tendency to be robotic, segmenting in his drop, but he can clean that up. He’s a quiet kid; he’ll have to overcome that."
Jordan Love, r-Jr., Utah State
Years as starter: 3. Notable number: 32-6 TD/INT in 2018, 20-17 TD-INT in 2019. Highest individual honor: 2018 Second-Team All-Mountain West. Team success: 2018 New Mexico Bowl Champions.
NFC Exec 4: "He’s highly talented, a prototype. I have serious concerns about his instincts, his processing ability. I’m not sure what the staff there was thinking. It’s the first time in my career as an evaluator where I’ve seen a coach that leaves, and a new staff comes in, and hires an OC, and allows the kid to keep same offense instead of putting in a different system without keeping any coaches. The OC was never comfortable calling plays in that system. … It was horrible, his season was horrible, and I’m having a hard time seeing whether it was the kid or the coaches deciding to go with the same system … the OC calling plays in a system he’s never run, with not one coach there that could teach the offense. It’s an incredibly hard thing. It’s asking, what do you believe?"
NFC Exec 1: "He’s a really difficult guy to do. A year ago, I liked him—quick release, strong arm, athletic. He’s a good kid—made a mistake late in year, but there’s not a problem with his character. But there are a lot of little things to playing better at the position. It’s decision-making, calls at the line, processing quicker, not forcing ball. There’s a lot of his game that needs to be cleaned up. He’s very talented. I wouldn’t trust him in Year 1. I wish he went back to develop it, because there’s no doubt he has talent. I’m not buying he’s a first-round pick."
NFC Exec 2: "You are what you put on tape, and sometimes you have to overcome the coaching. If he’s that talented, he should make up for some of that—lots of successful QBs overcome poor coaching, and bad circumstances. … And to compare him to Mahomes, oh my God, it’s a disservice to the kid. I don’t understand where that came from. He’s a nice passer, a smooth athlete. Mahomes lit the world on fire. I never once thought that of Love. I was jumping out of seat watching Mahomes at Texas Tech."
AFC QBs coach: "The big concern is the picks and it shows up in how he plays. The positives are there’s real arm talent, he can drive it, but he also turns the ball over way too much. The midrange stuff over the safety, he’ll stare down reads—just stares it down—and he relies on his arm too much. But if you can corral this kid, he has ability, he really does. He needs development. I think low-floor, high-ceiling, but what he shows on film, there are some things you can’t coach. He has that gunslinger mentality, makes off-platform throws, throws off his back foot. He’s got the arm talent to do it. He needs time and coaching and development."
Jacob Eason, r-Jr., Washington
Years as starter: 2 (1 at Georgia). Notable number: 3 rushing yards in 2019. Highest individual honor: 2015 Gatorade National High School Player of the Year. Team success: 2019 Las Vegas Bowl champion
NFC Exec 1: "Love the size, love the arm strength … [but] accuracy, ball placement, and his ability to get away from people is a problem. But he makes throws other guys can’t make. A lot of inconsistency, he’s another guy I’d have liked to have seen gone back to school. He’s big, strong, has the arm, so how does [Jake] Fromm beat him out? … He’s not as mobile, not as athletic as Herbert. But he has as good an arm, just on pure arm strength. Herbert has better feel and touch. This guy is fastballs all the time. … Yeah, he’s gotta grow up, has to become a pro, he’d be best coming in behind a guy. His work habits, his study habits have to improve. He’s a good kid, a smart enough kid, who had a great time in college."
NFC Exec 4: "I’m not a big fan. I don’t think he has quarterback makeup. Look, he doesn’t process information, doesn’t go through his progressions well. A big-time arm talent, like the other two (Herbert/Love), but he’s third—behind Herbert and Love. He’ll make big throws. I just question the makeup: work ethic, study habits, leadership, partying too much. If he’s not the guy, I don’t know if he’ll work at it. He barely won the job this year. At the start of camp, he had to fight to be named starter, and half the team wanted the other guy. … He’ll get overdrafted."
AFC QBs coach: "He looks and feels like the traditional pocket passer. He doesn’t have great feel, doesn’t have great movement. He’s got dead feet. But he can rip throws, he can drive that ball coming off the mound. Instead of pushing forward, he plays with a soft back foot—he goes backwards when he feels pressure, you’ll have to correct that, and part of it is probably that he feels like he can just rip the ball. … His most impressive plays are when the pocket’s clean. When he’s protected, he can do it. But to me, if you don’t have a strong feel, these types of guys, they show up great when you get them in shorts, in 7-on-7s, OTAs, they’ll throw it all over. Then you get them into preseason and you say, ‘he’s regressing.’ Well, no, he’s not, it’s a different game. … Several other guys have fluidity. It feels like he has a stiff game."
