[DYNASTY] Deep End Startup Draft (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

Hopefully my league mates won't take exception to me posting this. We are wrapping up a startup dynasty draft that began immediately after the Super Bowl. This is a 14 team league with .75/1/1.25 PPR for RB/WR/TE. 6 points for passing, rushing, and receiving TDs. Star 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, and 1 FLEX.

I thought this might be interesting for owners who are looking to gauge the value of their assets. Also, it offers a look at next year's potential dev draft hierarchy and where rookies are currently valued before the combine and draft. Here's the link:

http://football27.myfantasyleague.com/2011/options?L=74696&O=17

Here's the order of all rookies drafted so far:

1. Trent Richardson

2. Justin Blackmon

3. Andrew Luck

4. Robert Griffin III

5. Michael Floyd

6. Lamar Miller

7. Kendall Wright

8. Doug Martin

9. David Wilson

10. Ashlon Jeffery

11. Reuben Randle

12. Juron Criner

13. Chris Polk

14. LaMichael James

15. Mohamed Sanu

16. Dwayne Allen

17. Bernard Pierce

18. Ryan Broyles

19. Tauren Pool

20. Orson Charles

21. Coby Fleener

22. Tommy Streeter

23. Robert Turbin

24. Isaiah Peed

25. Vick Ballard

26. Stephen Hill

27. Ronnie Hillman

28. Joe Adams

29. Cyrus Gray

30. Jeff Fuller

31. Brian Quick

32. Ryan Tannahill

33. Dwight Jones

34. Chris Givens

35. Nick Toon

36. Marvin McNutt

37. Chris Rainey

38. BJ Cunningham

39. Marvin Jones

40. Devier Posey

41. Michael Egnew

42. Edwin Baker

43. Ty Hilton

44. Greg Childs

45. Jarius Wright

46. Ladarius Green

47. TJ Graham

48. Brock Oswelier

There might be a couple missing. I know Nick Foles and Brandon Weeden have also come off the board since the list was updated.And here's the order that the dev players went in:

1. WR Robert Woods, USC

2. WR Sammy Watkins, Clemson

3. RB Marcus Lattimore, South Carolina

4. WR Keenan Allen, Cal

5. WR Dorial Green-Beckham, High School

6. RB Michael Dyer, Arkansas State

7. RB Knile Davis, Arkansas

8. WR Marquis Lee, USC

9. QB Matt Barkley, USC

10. RB Montee Ball, Wisconsin

11. RB Eddie Lacy, Alabama

12. WR Marquess Wilson, Washington State

13. WR Da'Rick Rogers, Tennessee

14. RB Giovani Bernard, North Carolina

Interesting to see Beckham and Watkins go so high. I wasn't a fan of those picks, as I think there's a long wait and a lot of risk. Even if DGB ends up being the next Calvin Johnson (which I doubt), it will be four years before he plays a game for this FF squad. As for Watkins, I don't get taking him so high with Kendall Wright out there when Wright appears to be a safer version of the same player. You never know with dev drafts though. Both of those picks could be steals IF the players become stars. Anyways, it was an interesting and challenging draft. There were lots of different strategies employed and the rosters reflect that.

 

[DexterDew]

thanks for posting! before the draft i had a handful of Devy players targeted that were (hopefully) going to be drafted next year. I'm not a big fan of drafting a player that is 2+ years from playing in the NFL, and add another year or two to be "startable" (generally speaking).

Once i picked up the extra Devy pick in 2013, i didn't see the need to pick one in this start up, but used picks in that range to take three rookies starting with Wright (traded up to get him), Polk and Sanu. Added Grey and Wright as fliers, but man, drafting rookies before the combine and NFL draft is tough. I just didn't want to reach for one, or fill the back end of my roster with players that may not even get drafted... that is what 2nd year players who will actually have OTA's and a full training camp are for

 

[EBF]

Here's the team I came away with:

QB

9.05 - Matt Barkley (D)

9.07 - Matt Schaub

15.07 - Ryan Mallett

17.07 - Blaine Gabbert

20.08 - Nick Foles

I think this is a great year to wait on a QB in a dynasty startup. Last year's crazy passing stats have pumped up the value of players like Brady and Stafford, but if you're willing to be patient you can get a solid player several rounds later. Guys like Rivers, Cutler, and Flacco were fantastic values in this draft. I think I did okay to get Schaub in the 9th round. I'll be spotting a lot of teams points at QB every week, but Schaub is an underrated passer who has proven effective over multiple seasons. Without a difference maker in the starting spot, it was important for me to secure some upside later in the draft. I think I did that with Barkley and Mallett. I really like where I got Barkley when you consider that he was the 9th dev player picked and that Luck and RG3 both went in the first three rounds. As for Mallett, he's maybe my favorite QB stash right now. He has big FF potential at a cheap cost. I think he'll be a starter somewhere eventually. Gabbert and Foles were swing for the fences type picks. My hope is that Gabbert can pull an Eli and that Foles can sneak into the first round of the NFL draft. Not sure how likely those scenarios are, but hey...17th and 20th round picks. You take what you can get.

RB

4.10 - Jonathan Stewart

5.08 - Doug Martin ®

10.03 - Giovani Bernard (D)

11.07 - Felix Jones

18.08 - Edwin Baker ®

21.07 - Jonas Gray ®

I tend to draft very few RBs in startups and this was no difference. All of the good ones fly off the board early and I hate reaching for question marks when there are still solid QB/WR/TE out there, so I mostly avoided this position until the late going. I would've considered Trent Richardson with my 1.08 pick if he had been available, but he didn't fall. Stewart and Martin are two guys that I was targeting all along. The way I see Stewart is that he's already a solid RB2 in this format. His contract expires after next season, so he could quite easily ascend to RB1 status in 2013. Reasonable value for a late 4th rounder and the 15th RB off the board. Martin appears to have every ingredient needed to start on Sundays. If he lands in a starting role on draft day, he could actually be the leading scorer of my RBs next season. Again...good mix of talent and opportunity considering the price tag. Assuming the risk of an unproven rookie is one of the only ways to get a young franchise RB in these drafts without spending a top 20 pick. Felix is a depth pick with some latent upside. He has a solid career YPC and could still emerge down the road ala Tiki Barber, Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles. At worst he can be my RB3/emergency starter for the next year or two. Not much to get excited about beyond those three. Bernard is an interesting dev guy, but a bit undersized. I probably should've taken Isaiah Crowell from Georgia instead. Regret that one. Baker and Gray are two sleepers with sneaky NFL upside. I have actually seen Baker with a second round grade on one website. That's probably a stretch, but I think his compact build is well suited to the pro game. Overall, this group's fate will likely hinge on Martin. If he pans out right away, I'll be fine here. If he's a bust or mired in a committee, I might need to make a trade to address this position.

WR

TRADE - Hakeem Nicks

1.08 - AJ Green

2.07 - Justin Blackmon ®

8.08 - Michael Crabtree

13.07 - Malcom Floyd

16.08 - David Gettis

19.07 - Clyde Gates

22.08 - Eddie Royal

The strength of my team. I like to build around receivers in PPR dynasty leagues. That's what I did here. Rolling out Nicks, Green, and Blackmon as my top three receivers every week should help compensate for some of my weakness at QB and RB. They're all top 10 dynasty WRs on my board. Crab was good value where I got him (WR45!). Floyd has been a ppg machine the past two seasons. If he can stay healthy then he could be a nice short term option. He has to be one of the top redraft sleepers at WR. Gettis and Gates have elite physical gifts. Neither is a safe bet, but you're not going to find that in the 16th or 19th round usually. I'm just looking for future upside there. Royal was a "why the heck not?" kind of pick so late in the going. He's still young and he's a free agent. Maybe he can finally revive his career. Overall, this is a strong group, but it lacks quality depth outside the top 4-5.

TE

7.07 - Jermaine Gresham

12.08 - Coby Fleener ®

I was happy to get Gresham where I did. He was my TE target all along. I think he's as talented as any TE in the NFL outside maybe the top 2-3, and I think he has upside beyond what we've seen in his first two seasons. Fleener is my top rookie TE and a nice prospect to pair with Gresham.

OVERALL

My goal with most dynasty drafts is to draft a young-ish core avoid busts with my first 6-7 picks. If you can do that, you'll usually be in pretty good shape. I give this draft a B or B+. I think I have a solid core in place for the next few seasons, but in a 14 team league that starts this many players, you're almost always going to be weak somewhere. I have some issues at QB and RB. If my sleepers don't hit, I could be in trouble. A lot of it will probably come down to Doug Martin. If he becomes a Forte/Rice kind of producer, then I'll be in excellent shape. If he's more along the lines of Hardesty, I'll need to make some moves. I like what I did though. I have a young team that could contend in year one if it catches a break or two. If my team bombs in year one, I don't need to panic because I have all of my draft picks and most of my key players are young talents whose value is still ascending.

 

[EBF]

thanks for posting! before the draft i had a handful of Devy players targeted that were (hopefully) going to be drafted next year. I'm not a big fan of drafting a player that is 2+ years from playing in the NFL, and add another year or two to be "startable" (generally speaking).Once i picked up the extra Devy pick in 2013, i didn't see the need to pick one in this start up, but used picks in that range to take three rookies starting with Wright (traded up to get him), Polk and Sanu. Added Grey and Wright as fliers, but man, drafting rookies before the combine and NFL draft is tough. I just didn't want to reach for one, or fill the back end of my roster with players that may not even get drafted... that is what 2nd year players who will actually have OTA's and a full training camp are for

I think you got a really nice value in Kendall Wright. He was on my list in the 4th-5th range, but I ended up going in a different direction because of the way my roster was unfolding. Wright will be a first round pick and the actual value gap between him and Blackmon probably isn't as big as people think.

 

[DexterDew]

I'll add my $.02 on my draft process and perceived outcome. My usual MO is to tank one position and wait on RBs to find some later that may be "startable", and this being a 14 team league, the talent disappears quickly... especially with quality owners.

QB

Rodgers (1.02)

Fitzpatrick (17.13)

Once Megatron was gone with the first pick, I did not delay taking Rodgers in a 6/pt per TD passing since he is young enough to pencil in as a starter for the next 5-7 years. The advantage of him over QBs 5-14 is huge week in and week out.

RB

Murray (3.13)

Polk (8.14)

Tolbert (11.13)

Grey (13.13)

B Scott (15.13)

Saine (21.13)

Tanner (21.14)

Spann (22.02)

RBs fell a little in this draft, which did surprise me some. It caused me to reach for a WR, but more on that in the next paragraph. I am a big Murray fan and have him in every dynasty league. Health is the biggest concern, obviously, but if DAL invests in their OL this off-season, he could be Top 6. Polk has the size and hands to be a 3 down back, but have no idea where he will end up. Tolbert is a FA, which I like if he doesn't end up in TB. In a .75/ppr for RB, he will get me some points every week and may be a GL back somewhere in '13. Grey was a flier from a Tweet I read from Matt about the top 6 RBs he is looking at. Scott may get more touches next year in CIN, or he may not. This was not part of my plan to draft an "old" RB but needed a body that may get 10+ touches. The trio of Saine, Tanner and Spann are all 2nd year RBs on good teams that may move up their respective depth charts with a full off-season of OTAs and training camp. Saine could get more time if they don't bring Grant back (GB usually promotes from within, which i like a lot for fantasy purposes) and Green's rehab goes slowly. Tanner is a handcuff and hope Felix is traded, and Spann is in PIT where Mendy may start the year on PUP. If Moore is gone, Spann may get a few touches. And I know I am week at RB, I just want two Top 28 RBs out of this mess.

WR

Dez (2.06)

J Nelson (3.03)

Wright (5.03)

Cobb (7.03)

Sanu (9.06)

Moore (14.02)

Roberts (18.02)

L Lewis (22.01)

Not as strong as EBF's, but this group is young and solid. Dez will get his act together and put up Top 14 numbers this year, and even if Jordy regresses some, is still a borderline WR1. Lots of pixels have been spent on those two so I will go to Wright at 5.03, and I traded up to get him. In PPR, he could be a real great pick if he goes to a favorable situation. I may be forced to start him some this year, but really like his long term outlook. Cobb may have been a reach, but I love GB WRs and saw enough from him in his rookie year to think he could be a star and heir apparent to Jennings (or at least Driver). Sanu is a bit of an unknown... i've seen him anywhere from 4-8 in this year's WR class. I like his size, hands and versatility. It will greatly depend on the landing spot. Moore is that later/older pick when i realize i need 3 starters every week, so why not on the most pass happy team. If healthy, he is startable in that offense. Roberts is the perfect late round flier since this will be his 3rd season and may be a starter. Don't know who will be throwing the ball. Lewis is from East Carolina and saw his name as a sleeper of Matt's. I love Twitter for getting information, especially since we did this before the combine and draft.

TE

Celek (12.02)

Olsen (16.02)

Williams (20.02)

Wanted Hernandez and could have drafted him instead of Jordy at 31st overall, but hoped he would fall to the end of the 3rd (did not). So even though this is a 1.25/ppr for TEs, I waited on filling that position. My two guys are young enough and both borderline Top 14 that I won't hurt myself too bad. Williams is the Finley not signing a long term deal in GB flier. If he continues with the drops, could see Williams getting a lot of time in 2013.

Overall, I like my team, but not love them. I didn't want to tank the first year and go totally with youth so I avoided Devy players (and have 2 Devy picks next year), but I also only have a couple of players over 27 so this team can improve some. Rodgers gives me a punchers chance every week, and if I can find a RB2 or WR3 that surprise in 2012, this team will make the playoffs.

 

[eakfootball]

I'm surprised Malcolm Brown went undrafted for devys.

 

[Bandite]

I'm surprised Malcolm Brown went undrafted for devys.

Maybe because he's going to lose his starting job to Jonathan Gray

 

[Concept Coop]

Happy with the draft. I acquired 3 additional devy picks and 1 additional 1st round rookie draft pick.

Very happy with gronk in a 1.25 league. He is 22 and has as much career VBD as anyone in the hobby.

I liked getting two top 7 RBs late in round 2.

Bowe and Austin were great value in round 4.

Ben in the 8th is nice. Hopefully a change in offensive philosophy will spark his numbers.

Eddie Lacy was my favorite pick. He is very big, strong, fast and agile. He will put up major numbers next season and be worth a lot more than what I paid for him very soon.

Happy with Toby Gerhard - I think he pays off.

After that, it is a bunch of mixing and matching. My starting lineup will be strong and will have a lot of ammo to play with during the season.

1.09 9. Metal Faced Coops Gronkowski, Rob NEP TE

2.11 25. Metal Faced Coops McFadden, Darren OAK RB

2.13 27. Metal Faced Coops Forte, Matt CHI RB

4.04 46. Metal Faced Coops Bowe, Dwayne KCC WR

4.05 47. Metal Faced Coops Austin, Miles DAL WR

8.05 103. Metal Faced Coops Roethlisberger, Ben PIT QB

9.11 123. Metal Faced Coops DEVY: Eddie Lacy - RB - Bama

11.06 146. Metal Faced Coops Williams, DeAngelo CAR RB

12.11 165. Metal Faced Coops Gerhart, Toby MIN RB

14.09 191. Metal Faced Coops Dwight Jones - WR - Rookie (UNC)

16.09 219. Metal Faced Coops Ponder, Christian MIN QB ®

17.06 230. Metal Faced Coops Sanchez, Mark NYJ QB

17.12 236. Metal Faced Coops Grant, Ryan GBP RB

18.03 241. Metal Faced Coops Harper, Jamie TEN RB ®

18.09 247. Metal Faced Coops Smith, Steve PHI WR

19.06 258. Metal Faced Coops Hightower, Tim WAS RB

19.12 264. Metal Faced Coops Ballard, Jake NYG TE

20.01 267. Metal Faced Coops Jacobs, Brandon NYG RB

20.03 269. Metal Faced Coops Miller, Heath PIT TE

20.09 275. Metal Faced Coops Burress, Plaxico NYJ

21.06 286. Metal Faced Coops McCoy, Colt CLE QB

22.09 303. Metal Faced Coops Woodhead, Danny NEP RB

 

[Gandalf]

Interesting to see Beckham and Watkins go so high. I wasn't a fan of those picks, as I think there's a long wait and a lot of risk. Even if DGB ends up being the next Calvin Johnson (which I doubt), it will be four years before he plays a game for this FF squad. As for Watkins, I don't get taking him so high with Kendall Wright out there when Wright appears to be a safer version of the same player. You never know with dev drafts though. Both of those picks could be steals IF the players become stars.

Anyways, it was an interesting and challenging draft. There were lots of different strategies employed and the rosters reflect that.

Thank you for posting this. I am in a similar league that also has a salary cap favoring rookies greatly in terms of contract costs. I am sitting with the first developmental pick and deciding between guys like Watkins, Allen, Woods. I typically do not like drafting freshman or signees because of the long wait. The exception I am struggling with this year is Watkins because the guy just seems so good and nfl ready. Barring injury it is hard to envision him not becoming a superstar one day (enough size, great hands/catching style, speed, good work ethic). Of course this needs to be balanced by a guy like Keenan Allen who will be in the league much sooner. Admittedly I have seen far less of Allen but he looks solid too. I guess I just think Watkins to close to can't miss and I already have AJ Green, Julio Jones and Justin Blackmon so I can wait for him. Regarding RBs I agree on waiting unless a guy like Trent Richarson or ADP is available when they were on college. I dont think there are any obvious guys like that out ther right now. RBs get injured to often and every year there are nfl RBs who seem to emerge like Murray this year or Redman (he's on the waiver wire in my auction league). And they get hurt so often that in my salary cap league you don't want to tie up lots of money in them. Too risky. Last year underscores that. I prefer to stock up on young, cheap and good WRs because they have longer careers in general.

Last question with Barkley is do you think he is overrated because of the talent he has around him and questions about his arm strength? I have Brady/Mallet in my league and am considering Barkley instead of Watkins or Allen or a RB. How far below Luck do you think Barkley is? I think he might have been the second QB drafted in the nfl had he come out this year.

 

[TheWick]

The combination of 14 teams and pumped up QB scoring tilts things quite a bit in my mind...but thanks for posting.

I would have never dreamed of taking a QB in the first 3 rounds of a start-up and now it seems 4 or 5 QBs are going in the first 2 rounds. Not sure what to think.

 

[Patoons]

The combination of 14 teams and pumped up QB scoring tilts things quite a bit in my mind...but thanks for posting. I would have never dreamed of taking a QB in the first 3 rounds of a start-up and now it seems 4 or 5 QBs are going in the first 2 rounds. Not sure what to think.

I've seen this QB trends in may other leagues as well. Seems that they're the new WRs of the past few years. Everyone's jumping on the "this is a passing league" train.

 

[Gandalf]

The combination of 14 teams and pumped up QB scoring tilts things quite a bit in my mind...but thanks for posting. I would have never dreamed of taking a QB in the first 3 rounds of a start-up and now it seems 4 or 5 QBs are going in the first 2 rounds. Not sure what to think.

I've seen this QB trends in may other leagues as well. Seems that they're the new WRs of the past few years. Everyone's jumping on the "this is a passing league" train.

I agree. Everyone is. But that's because - at least for right now - it seems like it has become a passing league. Teams are acutely aware that RBs get hurt often and many who do not have true 3 down back are RBBCs. This trend isn't anything new. But I wonder if this treng will continue as the passing friendly rules seemed to have changed the way the league offenses are run for those teams who have the talent to do that and who do not have a stud RB (the majority of teams). Heck even the Bills took to the air early this season. All of this is trickling into fantasy football as well, especially in dynasty leagues with a strong foundation for the future - committed owners who will be around for decades. In the salary cap league that I'm in like this and I can tell you that no one wants to sign RBs to deals longer than 1-2 years, especially after the number of injury train wrecks that occurred. I think this trend will continue until there is some reason for it to change.

 

[EBF]

Last question with Barkley is do you think he is overrated because of the talent he has around him and questions about his arm strength? I have Brady/Mallet in my league and am considering Barkley instead of Watkins or Allen or a RB. How far below Luck do you think Barkley is? I think he might have been the second QB drafted in the nfl had he come out this year.

I think there's a pretty big gap between Barkley and Luck. USC always has a lot of talent at the skill position, and this past season was no different. Barkley is not as big or fast as Luck. More importantly, he doesn't demonstrate the same mental mastery of the position. He's still a likely top 5 pick though and a potential franchise QB. He just isn't a can't-miss type of prospect (which Luck is).I don't think I would take him as the #1 dev in many formats, although I think this is a weak year at the top of the dev draft. I'm not as excited by the likes of Woods, Watkins, or Lattimore as most. I would trade two of those guys for a Richardson or Blackmon.

 

[EBF]

I agree. Everyone is. But that's because - at least for right now - it seems like it has become a passing league. Teams are acutely aware that RBs get hurt often and many who do not have true 3 down back are RBBCs. This trend isn't anything new. But I wonder if this treng will continue as the passing friendly rules seemed to have changed the way the league offenses are run for those teams who have the talent to do that and who do not have a stud RB (the majority of teams). Heck even the Bills took to the air early this season. All of this is trickling into fantasy football as well, especially in dynasty leagues with a strong foundation for the future - committed owners who will be around for decades. In the salary cap league that I'm in like this and I can tell you that no one wants to sign RBs to deals longer than 1-2 years, especially after the number of injury train wrecks that occurred. I think this trend will continue until there is some reason for it to change.

Even if the trend is permanent, I think it's a "rising tide lifts all boats" situation. It's not like there was just one guy putting up silly passing stats this past season. Several guys did it. Brady, Brees, Stafford, Newton, and Rodgers had massive FF seasons. That's 5 guys, which is almost half the starters in a 12 team league. Even guys like Eli and Ryan had solid years. There's definitely an advantage to having one of the super elite guys, but there are now so many quality options at QB that I think the smart money is probably to wait until later in the draft and scoop up a player like Rivers/Romo/Roethlisberger/Schaub/Cutler/Flacco. Even as recently as 2010, the ppg difference between a player like Brady and a player like Romo didn't justify the huge gap in their current ADP.

 

[BeTheMatch]

I agree. Everyone is. But that's because - at least for right now - it seems like it has become a passing league. Teams are acutely aware that RBs get hurt often and many who do not have true 3 down back are RBBCs. This trend isn't anything new. But I wonder if this treng will continue as the passing friendly rules seemed to have changed the way the league offenses are run for those teams who have the talent to do that and who do not have a stud RB (the majority of teams). Heck even the Bills took to the air early this season. All of this is trickling into fantasy football as well, especially in dynasty leagues with a strong foundation for the future - committed owners who will be around for decades. In the salary cap league that I'm in like this and I can tell you that no one wants to sign RBs to deals longer than 1-2 years, especially after the number of injury train wrecks that occurred. I think this trend will continue until there is some reason for it to change.

Even if the trend is permanent, I think it's a "rising tide lifts all boats" situation. It's not like there was just one guy putting up silly passing stats this past season. Several guys did it. Brady, Brees, Stafford, Newton, and Rodgers had massive FF seasons. That's 5 guys, which is almost half the starters in a 12 team league. Even guys like Eli and Ryan had solid years. There's definitely an advantage to having one of the super elite guys, but there are now so many quality options at QB that I think the smart money is probably to wait until later in the draft and scoop up a player like Rivers/Romo/Roethlisberger/Schaub/Cutler/Flacco. Even as recently as 2010, the ppg difference between a player like Brady and a player like Romo didn't justify the huge gap in their current ADP.

But then why draft Luck or RG3 given how high of a pick you'll likely have to use in a rookie draft?

 

[EBF]

I agree. Everyone is. But that's because - at least for right now - it seems like it has become a passing league. Teams are acutely aware that RBs get hurt often and many who do not have true 3 down back are RBBCs. This trend isn't anything new. But I wonder if this treng will continue as the passing friendly rules seemed to have changed the way the league offenses are run for those teams who have the talent to do that and who do not have a stud RB (the majority of teams). Heck even the Bills took to the air early this season. All of this is trickling into fantasy football as well, especially in dynasty leagues with a strong foundation for the future - committed owners who will be around for decades. In the salary cap league that I'm in like this and I can tell you that no one wants to sign RBs to deals longer than 1-2 years, especially after the number of injury train wrecks that occurred. I think this trend will continue until there is some reason for it to change.

Even if the trend is permanent, I think it's a "rising tide lifts all boats" situation. It's not like there was just one guy putting up silly passing stats this past season. Several guys did it. Brady, Brees, Stafford, Newton, and Rodgers had massive FF seasons. That's 5 guys, which is almost half the starters in a 12 team league. Even guys like Eli and Ryan had solid years. There's definitely an advantage to having one of the super elite guys, but there are now so many quality options at QB that I think the smart money is probably to wait until later in the draft and scoop up a player like Rivers/Romo/Roethlisberger/Schaub/Cutler/Flacco. Even as recently as 2010, the ppg difference between a player like Brady and a player like Romo didn't justify the huge gap in their current ADP.

But then why draft Luck or RG3 given how high of a pick you'll likely have to use in a rookie draft?

I don't think I'd take either of them ahead of Richardson or Blackmon, partially for that reason. It's a little less clear with the next batch of skill position players, as they don't appear to be the super elite type of prospects that Luck and Griffin are. Would you rather have a 50% likelihood of a top 15 RB or a 75% chance of a top 15 QB? That starts to become a little more interesting. If someone like Doug Martin or David Wilson sneaks into the first round of the NFL draft, you'll see some owners pass on Luck or Griffin for them. You'll also probably see Kendall Wright and Michael Floyd go ahead of them in some ppr leagues.

 

[Gandalf]

I agree. Everyone is. But that's because - at least for right now - it seems like it has become a passing league. Teams are acutely aware that RBs get hurt often and many who do not have true 3 down back are RBBCs. This trend isn't anything new. But I wonder if this treng will continue as the passing friendly rules seemed to have changed the way the league offenses are run for those teams who have the talent to do that and who do not have a stud RB (the majority of teams). Heck even the Bills took to the air early this season. All of this is trickling into fantasy football as well, especially in dynasty leagues with a strong foundation for the future - committed owners who will be around for decades. In the salary cap league that I'm in like this and I can tell you that no one wants to sign RBs to deals longer than 1-2 years, especially after the number of injury train wrecks that occurred. I think this trend will continue until there is some reason for it to change.

Even if the trend is permanent, I think it's a "rising tide lifts all boats" situation. It's not like there was just one guy putting up silly passing stats this past season. Several guys did it. Brady, Brees, Stafford, Newton, and Rodgers had massive FF seasons. That's 5 guys, which is almost half the starters in a 12 team league. Even guys like Eli and Ryan had solid years. There's definitely an advantage to having one of the super elite guys, but there are now so many quality options at QB that I think the smart money is probably to wait until later in the draft and scoop up a player like Rivers/Romo/Roethlisberger/Schaub/Cutler/Flacco. Even as recently as 2010, the ppg difference between a player like Brady and a player like Romo didn't justify the huge gap in their current ADP.

I agree with this. The rising tide effect is true. Plus, there likely will be some reversion to the mean, even if that new mean is higher.

 

[Gandalf]

I don't think I would take him as the #1 dev in many formats, although I think this is a weak year at the top of the dev draft. I'm not as excited by the likes of Woods, Watkins, or Lattimore as most. I would trade two of those guys for a Richardson or Blackmon.

What if you already have Richardson and Blackmon??? Okay, I value your opinion so can you walk me through what is causing you pause on Watkins? Other than that I'd have to wait 2 more years for him. What are you noticing that you don't like?

 

[SieteCinco]

I'm fairly new to Dynasty, and realize youth is far more important than in re-drafts... but I was very surprised to see just how much it was valued. A few teams in this league loaded up very heavily on rookies/devy players, which caused a LOT of already proven players to fall. If those rookie/devy players do pan out, then yes, you will end up with a few extra years of production... but why take players who have MAYBE a 50% probability of just being useable in fantasy leagues over a player you know you can count on for at least the next 3-5 years?

It was by far the most active draft I have ever been apart of seeing as there were 45-50+ trades during the draft alone. A few teams traded away all of their 4-9th round picks to acquire one or two extra 2-3 rounders, leaving them with 3 great players but no depth. Some traded away their 1st/2nd/3rd rounders for extra 4th-5th-6th round picks leaving them with a lot of depth, but also a team filled with question marks. I found it best to stay patient and not make any moves unless someone blew you away with an offer because a lot of players fell and became great values.

I feel like I ended up just grabbing the biggest value in every round, and definitely drafted a team to contend now, but ended up with a good mixture of youth and proven players to be competitive for years.

Pretty standard scoring, start QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, Super Flex, Flex, DEF.

1.05 - Ray Rice

2.08 - Tom Brady (Little older than I'd like, but I'll find someone to replace him within 2-4 years)

3.08 - Ryan Matthews (Feels a lot like Ray Rice's offseason last year. Nearly took him with my 2.08 pick, couldn't believe he fell this far)

4.05 - Brandon Marshall (If Miami upgrades their QB, he could be one of the biggest steals of this draft)

5.01 - Dwayne Bowe (Traded up targeting Kenny Britt… missed by two)

5.08 - Marques Colston

6.10 - Vernon Davis

7.08 - Stevan Jackson (Getting up there in age, but I'll put my team on his back for another 2-3 years if it only costs me a LATE 7th)

10.05 - Santonio Holmes (Hoping talent wins out)

11.08 - DeAngelo Williams (I'm a fan)

11.09 - Mikel LeShoure

12.04 - Carson Palmer (Was a QB1 over the last half of the season with no practice, and did most of it without Moore, Ford, McFadden)

13.08 - Jacoby Ford (Steve Smith 2.0?)

13.09 - Christian Ponder (Who was the most efficient QB in the RedZone this year? Christian Ponder)

15.08 - Anquan Boldin (As my WR6 in the late 15th, sign me up)

16.05 - Shane Vereen

18.04 - Alex Green (I think he is leading GB's backfield within two years)

18.05 - Dexter McCluster (Hoping the team can find a way to use him properly and he'll be a very poor mans Darren Sproles)

20.04 - Braylon Edwards (Swing for the fence to see what happens in FA)

20.05 - D.J. Williams (If Jermichael Finley goes elsewhere........... JACKPOT!)

20.09 - Steve Smith (PHI) (Swing for the fence to see what happens in FA)

21.09 - Detroit Lions DEF

22.04 - Philadelphia Eagles DEF

23.09 - Marcus Easely

23.10 - New York Jets DEF

A few other players I think fell further than what their value will end up being:

22.09 - Adrian Peterson

2.12 - Jamaal Charles

6.07 - Aaron Hernandez

7.03 - Demaryius Thomas

7.04 - Beanie Wells

7.10 - DeSean Jackson

9.06 - Steve Smith

11.05 - Jay Cutler

15.10 - Robert Meachem

18.06 - Lance Kendricks

19.06 - Owen Daniels

19.10 - Damian Williams

21.04 - Santana Moss

21.11 - Matt Cassel

22.01 - Zach Miller

23.06 - Mike Thomas

 

[Patoons]

The combination of 14 teams and pumped up QB scoring tilts things quite a bit in my mind...but thanks for posting. I would have never dreamed of taking a QB in the first 3 rounds of a start-up and now it seems 4 or 5 QBs are going in the first 2 rounds. Not sure what to think.

I've seen this QB trends in may other leagues as well. Seems that they're the new WRs of the past few years. Everyone's jumping on the "this is a passing league" train.

I agree. Everyone is. But that's because - at least for right now - it seems like it has become a passing league. Teams are acutely aware that RBs get hurt often and many who do not have true 3 down back are RBBCs. This trend isn't anything new. But I wonder if this treng will continue as the passing friendly rules seemed to have changed the way the league offenses are run for those teams who have the talent to do that and who do not have a stud RB (the majority of teams). Heck even the Bills took to the air early this season. All of this is trickling into fantasy football as well, especially in dynasty leagues with a strong foundation for the future - committed owners who will be around for decades. In the salary cap league that I'm in like this and I can tell you that no one wants to sign RBs to deals longer than 1-2 years, especially after the number of injury train wrecks that occurred. I think this trend will continue until there is some reason for it to change.

Maybe, but you still only start 12-14 QBs in most dynasty leagues. To me, this is creating tremendous value at some of the other positions in start-up drafts.

 

[SayWhat?]

6.07 - Aaron Hernandez

Surprises me that Hernandez fell to 6.07 in a 1.25ppr for tight ends.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

6.07 - Aaron Hernandez

Surprises me that Hernandez fell to 6.07 in a 1.25ppr for tight ends.

Sietecinco wasn't part of the deep end draft. Hernandez went 3.05.

 

[DexterDew]

6.07 - Aaron Hernandez

Surprises me that Hernandez fell to 6.07 in a 1.25ppr for tight ends.

that wasn't in our Deep End 14 Team Startup with 1.25/ppr for TE:he was taken at 3.05, #33 overall and the 3rd TE taken

 

[EBF]

I don't think I would take him as the #1 dev in many formats, although I think this is a weak year at the top of the dev draft. I'm not as excited by the likes of Woods, Watkins, or Lattimore as most. I would trade two of those guys for a Richardson or Blackmon.

What if you already have Richardson and Blackmon??? Okay, I value your opinion so can you walk me through what is causing you pause on Watkins? Other than that I'd have to wait 2 more years for him. What are you noticing that you don't like?

I don't have a great answer re: Watkins, but based on what I've seen of him he hasn't shown a complete set of WR skills. I don't know if he can run routes, catch the ball in traffic, catch the ball downfield, or catch it over a defender. All I've really seen him do is catch short throws and run really fast in a straight line. I can't think of many players who have achieved consistent elite status in the NFL with that skill set. I consider Watkins a promising player with the potential to become a top 15 pick in his draft class, but it seems like he's already being valued as if he's achieved that status. I'll have to be more confident in his downfield game before I can buy into that.

 

[Gandalf]

I don't think I would take him as the #1 dev in many formats, although I think this is a weak year at the top of the dev draft. I'm not as excited by the likes of Woods, Watkins, or Lattimore as most. I would trade two of those guys for a Richardson or Blackmon.

What if you already have Richardson and Blackmon??? Okay, I value your opinion so can you walk me through what is causing you pause on Watkins? Other than that I'd have to wait 2 more years for him. What are you noticing that you don't like?

I don't have a great answer re: Watkins, but based on what I've seen of him he hasn't shown a complete set of WR skills. I don't know if he can run routes, catch the ball in traffic, catch the ball downfield, or catch it over a defender. All I've really seen him do is catch short throws and run really fast in a straight line. I can't think of many players who have achieved consistent elite status in the NFL with that skill set. I consider Watkins a promising player with the potential to become a top 15 pick in his draft class, but it seems like he's already being valued as if he's achieved that status. I'll have to be more confident in his downfield game before I can buy into that.

Good to know. I think overall a freshman has to show more than just promise to be drafted ahead of juniors and seniors. So your reasoning seems sound. He's a guy I will be watching for sure.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I don't think I would take him as the #1 dev in many formats, although I think this is a weak year at the top of the dev draft. I'm not as excited by the likes of Woods, Watkins, or Lattimore as most. I would trade two of those guys for a Richardson or Blackmon.

What if you already have Richardson and Blackmon??? Okay, I value your opinion so can you walk me through what is causing you pause on Watkins? Other than that I'd have to wait 2 more years for him. What are you noticing that you don't like?

I don't have a great answer re: Watkins, but based on what I've seen of him he hasn't shown a complete set of WR skills. I don't know if he can run routes, catch the ball in traffic, catch the ball downfield, or catch it over a defender. All I've really seen him do is catch short throws and run really fast in a straight line. I can't think of many players who have achieved consistent elite status in the NFL with that skill set. I consider Watkins a promising player with the potential to become a top 15 pick in his draft class, but it seems like he's already being valued as if he's achieved that status. I'll have to be more confident in his downfield game before I can buy into that.

I also agree on not being ecstatic about woods or Watkins...I just really dont see the wow factor like i have with the obvious guys in the past few yearsLattimore looked good pre injury, but im not sure he was stud potential regardless.

 

[SayWhat?]

6.07 - Aaron Hernandez

Surprises me that Hernandez fell to 6.07 in a 1.25ppr for tight ends.

that wasn't in our Deep End 14 Team Startup with 1.25/ppr for TE:he was taken at 3.05, #33 overall and the 3rd TE taken

That makes a lot more sense, and now I see the link to your draft in the first post. Still confused why that random team and draft was posted in a thread about your league though.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Some thoughts on my team and philosophy.

In 2004, I participated in a startup that I'm still in. Three of my top 5 picks were RBs. I took Deuce McAllister in the first. He was then what Ray Rice is now. Twenty-five years old, coming off a 2100+ yard season, and looking like one of the elites of the position. 2003 turned out to be his last great season. I also took Fred Taylor, who ironically was then, a lot like MJD today. 27 years old, coming off a season in excess of 1900+ yards. Taylor was a reasonably good RB2 for three of the next 4 years, but never came close to 1900 yards again. I also took Kevin Jones, whose career was killed by injuries.

Basically, I am hesitant to invest heavily at the RB position given the lack of longevity associated with it. The guys in that 2004 draft that drafted QBs and WRs early had assets for many, many years. Some of them are still reaping the rewards today.

I had the 1.05 pick in this draft, and was immediately presented with an offer for the 1.04. I ended up trading my 2nd (24th), 3rd (38th) and 11th rounder for 1.04 and a 9th and 10th rounders. Basically to move up from 24 to 4 I had to drop from 38 to 121. Here's the player's that made up that deal after the draft.

I got:

LeSean McCoy, Austin Collie, Vincent Brown (technically, I took Cam Newton at 1.04, but I would have taken Newton at 1.05 if I didn't have 1.04)

for

Percy Harvin, MJD, Ryan Broyles

On to my team:

QBs.

Cam Newton (4th), Matt Flynn (178th), Carson Palmer (215th), Matt Cassel (290th).

QBs really tumbled in this draft. Romo, Rivers etc went far later than they should have and presented real value to their owners. However, I do not regret grabbing Newton in the first. His entrance into the league can probably only be rivaled by Randy Moss' in recent memory. I feel as though Newton has a legitimate chance to be not only the preeminent player at QB going forward, but in all of fantasy football. I really believe in Flynn's chances for success, and Palmer was just way too good of value at pick 215.

RBs.

LeSean McCoy (5th), Michael Bush (94th), Pierre Thomas (159th), Dion Lewis (206th), Kahlil Bell (234th)

In a league where 28 RBs are required to start, most teams are going to be weak at RB. Although there is only one headliner here with McCoy, I could be sneaky good at the position. Bush is an UFA, and finished 10th among RBs last year as a part time player in Oakland. Pierre Thomas was RB23 in this scoring system last year, and provides me with a quality RB3 option. My RB core lacks in the young quality depth of some of the other rosters, but my feeling is that RB is a position of great turnover, and I'll be able to add to the position each year. Every year there's guys that emerge from the depths (Bradshaw, Grant, Foster, Hillis). I just have to be proactive enough to find them.

WRs.

Kenny Britt (35th), Steve Johnson (66th), Denarius Moore (75th), Austin Collie (122nd), Vincent Brown (130th), Eric Decker (135th), Greg Salas (262nd), Earl Bennett (271st), Danny Amendola (299th).

I would have liked to have added more premium WRs to my roster, but they came off the board early and often. To give you an idea, Kenny Britt was the 15th WR taken, Steve Johnson was the 30th, and Denarius Moore the 35th. So almost half of the first 75 picks were WRs. Nonetheless, I like my WRs as a group. While most upcoming rookies and devy's were drafted too early IMO, young guys like Moore, Collie, Brown and Decker were underrated. All those guys have shown they can make plays in the NFL. Collie was the #1 WR in all of fantasy for the first 6 weeks of 2010. I like his chances to reemerge as a PPR stud in 2012 with Luck at the helm. Take a look at the 1st OAK/SD game tape from last year. Vincent Brown and Denarius Moore were fantastic. Moore in particular seems to have exceptional deep ball tracking skills and can get behind coverage. Both have quality QBs going into 2012 as well. I think by getting both Salas and Amendola, I should end up with a quality PPR starter between the two.

TEs.

Fred Davis (97th), Jared Cook (131st), Julius Thomas (187th).

In his first season as a starter, Fred Davis was 5th among all TEs before he was suspended week 14. He was also the best playmaker the Redskins had in 2011. I think he'll at minimum keep me competitive at the position, if not provide me with an advantage over most. Cook and Thomas both have elite upsides as well.

Overall, I think I've got a great chance for success in 2012 and going forward. The vast majority of my players are young and have shown they can make plays in the NFL. Newton and McCoy should provide me with an awful lot of points on a weekly basis. I'm sure there's some busts among my draft picks, but I feel as though there's enough quality options there to field a highly competitive lineup.

 

[JohnnyU]

I don't think I would take him as the #1 dev in many formats, although I think this is a weak year at the top of the dev draft. I'm not as excited by the likes of Woods, Watkins, or Lattimore as most. I would trade two of those guys for a Richardson or Blackmon.

What if you already have Richardson and Blackmon??? Okay, I value your opinion so can you walk me through what is causing you pause on Watkins? Other than that I'd have to wait 2 more years for him. What are you noticing that you don't like?

I don't have a great answer re: Watkins, but based on what I've seen of him he hasn't shown a complete set of WR skills. I don't know if he can run routes, catch the ball in traffic, catch the ball downfield, or catch it over a defender. All I've really seen him do is catch short throws and run really fast in a straight line. I can't think of many players who have achieved consistent elite status in the NFL with that skill set. I consider Watkins a promising player with the potential to become a top 15 pick in his draft class, but it seems like he's already being valued as if he's achieved that status. I'll have to be more confident in his downfield game before I can buy into that.

I also agree on not being ecstatic about woods or Watkins...I just really dont see the wow factor like i have with the obvious guys in the past few years

Lattimore looked good pre injury, but im not sure he was stud potential regardless.

Keep drinking that EBF kool-aid. I'm trelling you right now that both Woods and Watkins are better than Blackmon and Crabtree.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

QB

Bradford, Sam STL

Pryor, Terrelle OAK

Rivers, Philip SDC

RB

John Clay

Terrance Ganaway

Wilson, David

Carter, Delone IND

Charles, Jamaal KCC

Johnson, Chris TEN

Jones, Taiwan OAK

Ridley, Stevan NEP

Spiller, C.J. BUF

WR

Cunningham, BJ

Hilton, TY

Breaston, Steve KCC

Heyward-Bey, Darrius OAK

Jones, Julio ATL

Lloyd, Brandon STL

Smith, Steve CAR

TE

Gonzalez, Tony ATL

Lewis, Marcedes JAC

DEF

Ravens, Baltimore BAL

DEVY

Allen (Devy-Cal), Keenan WR

I really think people are going to have a tough time finding 2 starting RBs this year. I think the RB devaluing thing was taken to an extreme and having some of the best RBs drop to the 3rd round is a bit much. Happy I traded up. Grabbing Chris Johnson and Jamaal Charles that late was fantastic value IMO.

Really happy with how long I got to wait on QBs considering who I got. People hate on phillip Rivers, he certainly had a subpar 2011, but If you look at his track record, it was more of an outlier than a trend IMO. Hes still young and should be coming into his prime. Still love Bradford, hes gotten an unfair bad rap because of the horrible situation hes been in. I have faith the Rams Get him at least one playmaker this offseason(even if thats resigning Brandon Lloyd) and hopefully sure up the line, If Bradford gets time, he will be a top 10 fantasy(and real) QB.

I suppose I'm taking a gamble on guys like Brandon Lloyd and Steve Smith because of age, but I also have guys like Julio Jones and Darrius Heyward Bey backing them up (or potentially passing them.)

The tight end position isn't pretty obviously, but waiting till the 13th round to get a guy that is almost guaranteed top 10 next year is fine with me.

Ravens D is solid and will get me some solid games, I'm happy for how late I got them.

The pick I'm most excited about is Keenan Allen. Seems like the odds on favorite to be 1.1 next year and It was worth a late 4th round selection considering what his value will be by next year. I think hes a better prospect than blackmon and look how high Blackmons value is right now.

All in all I think I did a good job of mixing youth and veterans and I see myself as the a top contender.........Obviously........I think all of us do at this point

 

[Donnybrook]

Here's the team I came away with:

QB

9.05 - Matt Barkley (D)

9.07 - Matt Schaub

15.07 - Ryan Mallett

17.07 - Blaine Gabbert

20.08 - Nick Foles

I like Schaub but with his injury history I would look for a better backup QB than Gabbert. Honestly, I think you are looking to far down the road here.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

I don't think I would take him as the #1 dev in many formats, although I think this is a weak year at the top of the dev draft. I'm not as excited by the likes of Woods, Watkins, or Lattimore as most. I would trade two of those guys for a Richardson or Blackmon.

What if you already have Richardson and Blackmon??? Okay, I value your opinion so can you walk me through what is causing you pause on Watkins? Other than that I'd have to wait 2 more years for him. What are you noticing that you don't like?

I don't have a great answer re: Watkins, but based on what I've seen of him he hasn't shown a complete set of WR skills. I don't know if he can run routes, catch the ball in traffic, catch the ball downfield, or catch it over a defender. All I've really seen him do is catch short throws and run really fast in a straight line. I can't think of many players who have achieved consistent elite status in the NFL with that skill set. I consider Watkins a promising player with the potential to become a top 15 pick in his draft class, but it seems like he's already being valued as if he's achieved that status. I'll have to be more confident in his downfield game before I can buy into that.

I also agree on not being ecstatic about woods or Watkins...I just really dont see the wow factor like i have with the obvious guys in the past few years

Lattimore looked good pre injury, but im not sure he was stud potential regardless.

Keep drinking that EBF kool-aid, or you can believe a proven winner I'm trelling you right now that both Woods and Watkins are better than Blackmon and Crabtree.

I dont base any of my opinions of what one person says. But obviously its comforting to know he agrees with me though , makes me feel like im not totally crazy for thinking im seeing . Watkins could be good, have not seen enough to tell anyone hes going to be the next big thing though, just do not see it with Woods, Keenan Allen is so clearly a better prospect, I just dont get what everyone else is seeing They may be better than Blackmon or Crabtree, but I wasn't real big fans of them either. Good pros , yes, elite fantasy guys ...a stretch IMO

 

[SieteCinco]

6.07 - Aaron Hernandez

Surprises me that Hernandez fell to 6.07 in a 1.25ppr for tight ends.

that wasn't in our Deep End 14 Team Startup with 1.25/ppr for TE:he was taken at 3.05, #33 overall and the 3rd TE taken

That makes a lot more sense, and now I see the link to your draft in the first post. Still confused why that random team and draft was posted in a thread about your league though.

Thought it was the "Dynasty Start Up" thread

 

[Concept Coop]

Really happy with how long I got to wait on QBs considering who I got. People hate on phillip Rivers, he certainly had a subpar 2011, but If you look at his track record, it was more of an outlier than a trend IMO. Hes still young and should be coming into his prime. Still love Bradford, hes gotten an unfair bad rap because of the horrible situation hes been in. I have faith the Rams Get him at least one playmaker this offseason(even if thats resigning Brandon Lloyd) and hopefully sure up the line, If Bradford gets time, he will be a top 10 fantasy(and real) QB.

I like your draft, but I must say, I think you missed a golden opportunity. Don't take this the wrong way, we all have different ideas and opinions and I could end up being way off. But...Getting Charles and CJ2k in the third round is money. That could have made your draft the best, based on that value alone. 2x RB 1s, in a 14 team league, that late is awesome. Granted, they are risky and that is why they fell (too far). I feel like you added an unnecessary risk by following them up with Spiller and Allen. Spiller is another risky RB pick, when you just spent 2 picks on similar risks. Rather than add to the risk level and premium paid, I would have mitigated that risk by adding cheaper, but safer RBs, later in the draft. If you could have grabbed Jackson or Turner, ROUNDS later, you could have added major power to your core and starting linup by going WR or TE there. Plus, you were invested in another young, risky RB in David Wilson. Allen is a good prospect, but he is a prospect. The year wait alone, is worth a 1 round drop in value. Even if he ends up being valued as a top 20 WR next year, you don't get any added value, based on your missed year of production. If he were to stay in school another year, you miss out even more. If you could have gone Britt (over Spiller) and V. Davis (over Allen) your starting lineup would be:RiversCJ2KJ.CharlesJ.JonesK.BrittS. SmithV. DavisB. LloydThat is a scary core, when you consider you have Wilson, Bradford, DHB to step in when a few of your guys get older.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Really happy with how long I got to wait on QBs considering who I got. People hate on phillip Rivers, he certainly had a subpar 2011, but If you look at his track record, it was more of an outlier than a trend IMO. Hes still young and should be coming into his prime. Still love Bradford, hes gotten an unfair bad rap because of the horrible situation hes been in. I have faith the Rams Get him at least one playmaker this offseason(even if thats resigning Brandon Lloyd) and hopefully sure up the line, If Bradford gets time, he will be a top 10 fantasy(and real) QB.

I like your draft, but I must say, I think you missed a golden opportunity. Don't take this the wrong way, we all have different ideas and opinions and I could end up being way off. But...Getting Charles and CJ2k in the third round is money. That could have made your draft the best, based on that value alone. 2x RB 1s, in a 14 team league, that late is awesome. Granted, they are risky and that is why they fell (too far). I feel like you added an unnecessary risk by following them up with Spiller and Allen. Spiller is another risky RB pick, when you just spent 2 picks on similar risks. Rather than add to the risk level and premium paid, I would have mitigated that risk by adding cheaper, but safer RBs, later in the draft. If you could have grabbed Jackson or Turner, ROUNDS later, you could have added major power to your core and starting linup by going WR or TE there. Plus, you were invested in another young, risky RB in David Wilson. Allen is a good prospect, but he is a prospect. The year wait alone, is worth a 1 round drop in value. Even if he ends up being valued as a top 20 WR next year, you don't get any added value, based on your missed year of production. If he were to stay in school another year, you miss out even more. If you could have gone Britt (over Spiller) and V. Davis (over Allen) your starting lineup would be:RiversCJ2KJ.CharlesJ.JonesK.BrittS. SmithV. DavisB. LloydThat is a scary core, when you consider you have Wilson, Bradford, DHB to step in when a few of your guys get older.

actually.... your dead on here lol. You wanna be my GM? haha but yea, I am taking a lot of risks on this team, perhaps I should consider trading one of the high risk guys, we will see, plenty of time to annoy you guys with trade offers before the season starts! Spiller for Forte and 3 firsts...comin up lolObviously TE is a concern and could completely blow up in my face, just gotta wait and see what happens in the league, I dont think I'm done yet.

 

[Concept Coop]

actually.... your dead on here lol. You wanna be my GM? haha but yea, I am taking a lot of risks on this team, perhaps I should consider trading one of the high risk guys, we will see, plenty of time to annoy you guys with trade offers before the season starts! Spiller for Forte and 3 firsts...comin up lolObviously TE is a concern and could completely blow up in my face, just gotta wait and see what happens in the league, I dont think I'm done yet.

You'll have plenty opportunity to move your RBs, if you decide to, I think. I don't know if you'll be able to get the Britt level talent, but owners will always need RBs in a start 2, 14 team league.Plus, CJ, JC, DHB, Rivers were some of the best value picks in the draft. You're definitely a contender.

 

[Concept Coop]

Some thoughts on my team and philosophy.

I am kind of jealous of you, KT. McCoy and Newton are my two biggest man-crushes in the hobby. Getting them both is money. By trading up, you did make your line-up a little shallow (as did I), but it very well could pay off. Your RB corp is the only issue I see. McCoy is the best RB in dynasty formats, in my opinion, so you are set there. But, you need a couple gambles to pay off to find your RB2/RB3. I personally would have "shotgunned" that position a lot more than you did, but that is preference. I thought some guys like Turner/F. Jackson/S. Jackson all presented RB2 play for a couple years, relatively cheap. You could have also rolled the dice on younger guys like Tolbert, Gerhart, Ridley, Vereen, D. Thomas etc. Your WR corp looks shallow, at first glace, but I actually like it. Getting a WR1 in that late is great, if Britt can stay healhty. Johnson is a boring WR2, but servicable. The WR 3 spot, which looks week, could end up being very strong. Moore, Collie, Brown, and Decker all have the potential to be WR2/3 and the odds are that at least 1, maybe 2 will pay off and end up being that for you. Your TE spot is appealing to me. All 3 have upside left and you got them all at good spots in the draft.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

Some thoughts on my team and philosophy.

I am kind of jealous of you, KT. McCoy and Newton are my two biggest man-crushes in the hobby. Getting them both is money. By trading up, you did make your line-up a little shallow (as did I), but it very well could pay off. Your RB corp is the only issue I see. McCoy is the best RB in dynasty formats, in my opinion, so you are set there. But, you need a couple gambles to pay off to find your RB2/RB3. I personally would have "shotgunned" that position a lot more than you did, but that is preference. I thought some guys like Turner/F. Jackson/S. Jackson all presented RB2 play for a couple years, relatively cheap. You could have also rolled the dice on younger guys like Tolbert, Gerhart, Ridley, Vereen, D. Thomas etc. Your WR corp looks shallow, at first glace, but I actually like it. Getting a WR1 in that late is great, if Britt can stay healhty. Johnson is a boring WR2, but servicable. The WR 3 spot, which looks week, could end up being very strong. Moore, Collie, Brown, and Decker all have the potential to be WR2/3 and the odds are that at least 1, maybe 2 will pay off and end up being that for you. Your TE spot is appealing to me. All 3 have upside left and you got them all at good spots in the draft.

Thanks Coop. I honestly considered Gronk heavily for the 1.05 spot given the 1.25PPR for TEs. Tried to move back a bit to get him, but didn't have any takers.I agree about my RB issues. I knew I was going to be thin somewhere after trading up. Given the option of being thin at RB/WR or TE, I chose RB. The position just turns over so frequently, that I think I have a reasonably good chance of discovering the next Bradshaw/Foster/Grant/Hillis. (I also think Michael Bush has every bit as good of a chance for production in 2012 as Turner, SJax or FJax, plus more for future years. Not to mention one of those three may be cheap at the trade deadline if necessary.) As for Stevie Johnson, yeah I'd agree he's a boring WR2, but I think he's a solid 1000/7 kind of guy for a while. I wanted a little stability there after chancing my WR1 on Britt. I did choose to "shotgun" the WRs after those two, and am going to be very interested to see how many of those guys end up panning out.

 

[tdmills]

Strategy: With 14 teams and very good competition, I really analysed this format. I tried to get an edge any way that I could. With 14 teams, I was determined to gain quality depth over great top end picks. I've completed 9 trades thus far in the league. I also put a premium on QB/TE because of point differentials from the first starter to the last starter. I didn't pay attention to RB because of the diminished PPR(.75), injuries, RBBC, and short shelf life they have. I had to alter my strategy after drafting Andrew Luck to a younger team than I would've liked because Luck isn't likely to give me enough of an edge year 1 to win.

QB

Andrew Luck(2.12)

Josh Freeman(11.03)

Andrew Luck was the one player I had to walk away from in this draft, I really believe in his talent. I paired Josh Freeman with him because Freeman showed good potential two years ago and still has good young weapons around him. I regretted only one draft pick in the whole draft. I passed taking Tony Romo and took Mikel LeShoure instead, but you can't win them all.

RB

Ben Tate(6.7)

Ryan Williams(7.4)

Mikel LeShoure(8.3)

LeGarrett Blount(8.12)

Michael Turner(10.12)

Bobby Rainey(21.03)

Bryce Brown(23.07)

I waited on RB on purpose and don't have any studs as a result. With so much turnover at this position, I went with high ceiling types of players. Ben Tate almost ran for 1,000 yards with a 5.4 YPC and is only 23. Ryan Williams/Mikel Leshoure are both recovering from major injuries, but they're 21 years old. I believe they're more likely to recover when they're young. Blount has already run for 1,000 yards in a season at 5 YPC and is 24. Turner in the late 10th is a steal! He was sandwiched between J. Best/B. Pierce/Turner/Fred Jackson/K. Smith. I think Turner has the least amount of question marks out of that group and has had back to back 1300 11TD seasons. I only need him for a year or 2 anyway. Don't sleep on Bobby Rainey, reminds me of Ray Rice.

WR

Jeremy Maclin(3.9)

Torrey Smith(6.1)

Alshon Jeffrey(6.7)

Sidney Rice(8.6)

Juron Criner(8.7)

Jeff Fuller(13.14)

Nate Washington(14.12)

David Nelson(18.16)

Greg Childs(19.03)

AJ Jenkins(22.12)

Maclin, Smith, S. Rice, Washington, Nelson will be my year 1 starters and then I have 5 rookie WRs that have all produced at a high level at major programs. Maclin/Smith will be solid WR2's for years. Sidney Rice has had 2 straight banged up seasons, but has produced a 1300 yard season as well and is only 25. Nate Washington caught 4TD passes in the 3 games Locker has significant playing time and Nelson has a disappointed 2nd half of the year after a solid 1st half. Alshon Jeffrey, Juron Criner, and Jeff Fuller all were in my top 5 preseason draft eligible college WRs. All 3 of them disappointed some this past season, which is why they slipped. I will gladly scoop them up where I did instead of paying a round 2 price. Greg Childs had a big time knee injury, but was Ryan Mallett's go to WR and produced well in the SEC and Jenkins played very well in the big ten on a poor Illinois team. I'm really happy with my WR group.

TE

Jimmy Graham(1.12)

Brandon Pettigrew(6.12)

Jimmy Graham was the 4th scorer in this format(not including QBs) last year. Pettigrew was the 24th RB/WR/TE scorer in this format in 2011 and I got him with the 82nd pick...crazy. Combine that with I just depleted a TE pool even more because 14 will have to start every week and I now have 2 of the top 6.

D

Lions(18.12)

Devy

DaRick Rodgers WR University of Tennessee

He's a knucklehead, but I really like his game. Physical, big, athletic, and led the SEC in a bunch of categories last year.

Overall

Really happy with my draft(i'm sure we all are). With the big advantage at TE and being able to start both of them, it really helps out the rest of my lineup. Add in Turner and I only need 1 RB, Maclin, T. Smith, and another WR to set my lineup for year 1. Then I can hope that a bunch of these young players will recover from injuries and/or develop into solid fantasy players. Also with Luck being young I continued with the youth movement, I only have 3 players over the age of 25(Turner, Nate Washington, Pettigrew).

 

[EBF]

Here's the team I came away with:

QB

9.05 - Matt Barkley (D)

9.07 - Matt Schaub

15.07 - Ryan Mallett

17.07 - Blaine Gabbert

20.08 - Nick Foles

I like Schaub but with his injury history I would look for a better backup QB than Gabbert. Honestly, I think you are looking to far down the road here.

I agree about Schaub, but bear in mind that these rosters aren't set in stone. If Schaub gets hurt, I can always make a trade for another QB. Having three top 10 WRs (by my estimation) gives me a lot of flexibility. I'm not expecting much from Foles and Gabbert, but Barkley was one of my favorite picks in my draft and Mallett is a really good stash right now. I have played in 14 team ppr dynasty leagues with dev players before, so I have some idea how these leagues work. I know that you can always trade for a fringe top 10 QB at a modest price because there are always a couple teams with great backups who they don't use. I also know that elite QB prospects tend to fall far in the dev drafts while people play the guessing game with the RBs/WRs. That certainly held true here, with Barkley slipping all the way to the 9th dev slot even though he's one of the only devs in the pool who's almost guaranteed to be a top 10 NFL draft pick.

I would've liked to have gotten someone like Rodgers, Newton, or Luck, but that wasn't in the cards. I felt the next best option was to capitalize on the depth at QB by grabbing a solid player on the cheap (Schaub) and then pairing him with some high upside types. Barkley and Mallett both have high ceilings. Even Gabbert was a consensus top 15 pick last year. I figure between those three I have a good shot at finding a QB1 down the road.

 

[EBF]

Keep drinking that EBF kool-aid. I'm trelling you right now that both Woods and Watkins are better than Blackmon and Crabtree.

I would hope they're better than Crabtree, since you took them four rounds earlier. As for Blackmon, I like his chances more than either of those prospects. I think Woods has a good shot to be a first round NFL draft pick next year. I feel like Watkins was more of a reach. You'll have to wait at least two years for him. Why take that chance when Kendall Wright, a probable top 15 pick THIS year, is still on the board? Those picks can pay off huge for you if your evaluations are correct, but you've got a lot riding on college players. I think devs went a couple rounds too high in this draft in general. I told myself going in that I wasn't going to draft a dev within the first 7 rounds. I just didn't see that must-have Richardson/Peterson type of player in this group.

 

[JohnnyU]

Keep drinking that EBF kool-aid. I'm trelling you right now that both Woods and Watkins are better than Blackmon and Crabtree.

I would hope they're better than Crabtree, since you took them four rounds earlier. As for Blackmon, I like his chances more than either of those prospects. I think Woods has a good shot to be a first round NFL draft pick next year. I feel like Watkins was more of a reach. You'll have to wait at least two years for him. Why take that chance when Kendall Wright, a probable top 15 pick THIS year, is still on the board? Those picks can pay off huge for you if your evaluations are correct, but you've got a lot riding on college players. I think devs went a couple rounds too high in this draft in general. I told myself going in that I wasn't going to draft a dev within the first 7 rounds. I just didn't see that must-have Richardson/Peterson type of player in this group.

I only took 2 devys (Woods and Watkins). You make it sound like I took 10 of them. Yes, I took Watkins over Wright because I believe his upside is higher. When I look at Watkins I see Julio Jones, only better. As for Blackmon, I'll go out on a limb and say he's no better than Crabtree and I'm almost sure of it.

 

[JohnnyU]

Barkley was one of my favorite picks in my draft

Didn't you post in one of the other rookie draft pick threads how Luck is light years (paraphrasing) better than Barkley? So even if you got Barkley at a decent price in this draft, from the sounds of it in other threads you're not that high on Barkley.

 

[BeTheMatch]

Barkley was one of my favorite picks in my draft

Didn't you post in one of the other rookie draft pick threads how Luck is light years (paraphrasing) better than Barkley? So even if you got Barkley at a decent price in this draft, from the sounds of it in other threads you're not that high on Barkley.

Why don't you two just make out and get it over with already!

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Barkley was one of my favorite picks in my draft

Didn't you post in one of the other rookie draft pick threads how Luck is light years (paraphrasing) better than Barkley? So even if you got Barkley at a decent price in this draft, from the sounds of it in other threads you're not that high on Barkley.

He also said that he'd rank Luck 3rd amongst all QBs - so maybe he's just super duper high on Luck, and those two thoughts are not necessarily inconsistent.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Keep drinking that EBF kool-aid. I'm trelling you right now that both Woods and Watkins are better than Blackmon and Crabtree.

I would hope they're better than Crabtree, since you took them four rounds earlier. As for Blackmon, I like his chances more than either of those prospects. I think Woods has a good shot to be a first round NFL draft pick next year. I feel like Watkins was more of a reach. You'll have to wait at least two years for him. Why take that chance when Kendall Wright, a probable top 15 pick THIS year, is still on the board? Those picks can pay off huge for you if your evaluations are correct, but you've got a lot riding on college players. I think devs went a couple rounds too high in this draft in general. I told myself going in that I wasn't going to draft a dev within the first 7 rounds. I just didn't see that must-have Richardson/Peterson type of player in this group.

I only took 2 devys (Woods and Watkins). You make it sound like I took 10 of them. Yes, I took Watkins over Wright because I believe his upside is higher. When I look at Watkins I see Julio Jones, only better. As for Blackmon, I'll go out on a limb and say he's no better than Crabtree and I'm almost sure of it.

Name one thing (hands, ball skills, height, weight, speed, YAC) that Sammy Watkins is better than Julio Jones?

 

[JohnnyU]

Keep drinking that EBF kool-aid. I'm trelling you right now that both Woods and Watkins are better than Blackmon and Crabtree.

I would hope they're better than Crabtree, since you took them four rounds earlier. As for Blackmon, I like his chances more than either of those prospects. I think Woods has a good shot to be a first round NFL draft pick next year. I feel like Watkins was more of a reach. You'll have to wait at least two years for him. Why take that chance when Kendall Wright, a probable top 15 pick THIS year, is still on the board? Those picks can pay off huge for you if your evaluations are correct, but you've got a lot riding on college players. I think devs went a couple rounds too high in this draft in general. I told myself going in that I wasn't going to draft a dev within the first 7 rounds. I just didn't see that must-have Richardson/Peterson type of player in this group.

I only took 2 devys (Woods and Watkins). You make it sound like I took 10 of them. Yes, I took Watkins over Wright because I believe his upside is higher. When I look at Watkins I see Julio Jones, only better. As for Blackmon, I'll go out on a limb and say he's no better than Crabtree and I'm almost sure of it.

Name one thing (hands, ball skills, height, weight, speed, YAC) that Sammy Watkins is better than Julio Jones?

Sit back and watch grasshopper.

 

[wiscstlatlmia]

Keep drinking that EBF kool-aid. I'm trelling you right now that both Woods and Watkins are better than Blackmon and Crabtree.

I would hope they're better than Crabtree, since you took them four rounds earlier. As for Blackmon, I like his chances more than either of those prospects. I think Woods has a good shot to be a first round NFL draft pick next year. I feel like Watkins was more of a reach. You'll have to wait at least two years for him. Why take that chance when Kendall Wright, a probable top 15 pick THIS year, is still on the board? Those picks can pay off huge for you if your evaluations are correct, but you've got a lot riding on college players. I think devs went a couple rounds too high in this draft in general. I told myself going in that I wasn't going to draft a dev within the first 7 rounds. I just didn't see that must-have Richardson/Peterson type of player in this group.

I only took 2 devys (Woods and Watkins). You make it sound like I took 10 of them. Yes, I took Watkins over Wright because I believe his upside is higher. When I look at Watkins I see Julio Jones, only better. As for Blackmon, I'll go out on a limb and say he's no better than Crabtree and I'm almost sure of it.

Name one thing (hands, ball skills, height, weight, speed, YAC) that Sammy Watkins is better than Julio Jones?

Sit back and watch grasshopper.

So I went back and watched all my favorite prospects from the past few years and compared them to Watkins, I just felt like I had to be missing something. I kinda see what your saying now, the kid has ridiculous speed, im guessing 4.3s. Hes also a very good route runner. The big thing for me was that he was a true freshman and already so developed. He was always open,his routes are already way to much for college corners. From what the people say , the kid has a crazy work ethic also,I've learned to never doubt a guy like that. But my question to you Johnny, where does he rank in the past 5 years of prospects for you. He did look better than Julio Jones did his freshman year, I'll give you that. But I still dont think Watkins as a finished product is going to be comparable to Jones,just me.

 

[Gandalf]

Keep drinking that EBF kool-aid. I'm trelling you right now that both Woods and Watkins are better than Blackmon and Crabtree.

I would hope they're better than Crabtree, since you took them four rounds earlier. As for Blackmon, I like his chances more than either of those prospects. I think Woods has a good shot to be a first round NFL draft pick next year. I feel like Watkins was more of a reach. You'll have to wait at least two years for him. Why take that chance when Kendall Wright, a probable top 15 pick THIS year, is still on the board? Those picks can pay off huge for you if your evaluations are correct, but you've got a lot riding on college players. I think devs went a couple rounds too high in this draft in general. I told myself going in that I wasn't going to draft a dev within the first 7 rounds. I just didn't see that must-have Richardson/Peterson type of player in this group.

I only took 2 devys (Woods and Watkins). You make it sound like I took 10 of them. Yes, I took Watkins over Wright because I believe his upside is higher. When I look at Watkins I see Julio Jones, only better. As for Blackmon, I'll go out on a limb and say he's no better than Crabtree and I'm almost sure of it.

Name one thing (hands, ball skills, height, weight, speed, YAC) that Sammy Watkins is better than Julio Jones?

Sit back and watch grasshopper.

So I went back and watched all my favorite prospects from the past few years and compared them to Watkins, I just felt like I had to be missing something. I kinda see what your saying now, the kid has ridiculous speed, im guessing 4.3s. Hes also a very good route runner. The big thing for me was that he was a true freshman and already so developed. He was always open,his routes are already way to much for college corners. From what the people say , the kid has a crazy work ethic also,I've learned to never doubt a guy like that. But my question to you Johnny, where does he rank in the past 5 years of prospects for you. He did look better than Julio Jones did his freshman year, I'll give you that. But I still dont think Watkins as a finished product is going to be comparable to Jones,just me.

The question of Sammy Watkins versus Blackmon, Woods and Allen is a huge philosophical question. Do you take more proven talent or roll the dice on one of the best freshman ever? A lot of people say never to draft a freshman but if you don't in devy leagues, then you would most certainly miss out on Calvin Johnson, ADP, etc. these guys get so much hype that someone will pick them. I picked Richardson after his freshman year and have zero regrets. I think the most important thing is to draft who you think will be the better player.I have now watched a lot of Watkins and think he is supremely talented. I think he will get even better because of his work ethic. He is a rare talent and could go #1 overall the year he is drafted. I think this because when I watch him every defensive player looks like they are moving in slow motion, he catches everything with his hands, his routes are already polished and he can deal any corner he goes up against, he is always open, good character, and has more than enough size. He does look special to me and I think he coul get even better. I think he could be the best prospect at WR since Calvin Johnson. I could be wrong but since I believe I'm not I have no problem with taking him ahead of other WRs. I would not fault some for taking Blackmon or woods ahead of Watkins but all I will say is that I value watkins higher and can wait for him, just like I did with Richardson.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

I'm pretty high on Sammy Watkins as well. I think most see his potential. The problem is people have to wait out 2 fantasy seasons before he can start. So 2012 and 2013 will be hurting because of taking Watkins early. Then IF he continues on his path and doesn't get sidetracked(lazy, off field problems, injuries, doesn't develop) it could turn into a good pick. Lots of risk involved.