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Dynasty Rankings (1 Viewer)

Jeff Pasquino

Footballguy
Here are my latest Dynasty Rankings.

Since I can't release the full details, I'll give some added bonuses here.

Here are the players that have moved 3 or more spots on my list(s):



OVERALL:

MJ Drew (+15)

Roy Williams (+9)

Reggie Bush (+6)

Marques Colston (+4)

LenDale White (+5)

Cedric Benson (+6)

Chris Chambers (-6)

Chester Taylor (-8)

Cadillac Williams (-14)

Matt Hasselbeck (-13)

Ahman Green (-12)

Warrick Dunn (-4)

Jamal Lewis (-5)

Braylon Edwards (-3)

Mark Clayton (-3)

Additions: Vince Young, Jay Cutler

Subtractions: Brandon Jacobs, Tatum Bell

QUARTERBACKS:

Big Ben (+4)

Philip Rivers (-3)

Tarvaris Jackson (+4)

Jason Campbell (+5)

David Garrard (-3)

Byron Leftwich (-3)

Steve McNair (+4)

Brett Favre (-8)

Trent Green (-3)

Aaron Rodgers (+5)

Kyle Boller (-5)

Quinn Gray (+14)

Patrick Ramsey (+12)

Charlie Whitehurst (+3)

Brian Griese (+4)

Matt Cassel (+5)

Bruce Gradkowski (+3)

Chris Weinke (-4)

Sage Rosenfels (-8)

Andrew Walter (-14)



Additions: AJ Feeley, Josh McCown, John Navarre, Ingle Martin (GB), Brooks Bollinger

Subtractions: Jamie Martin, Craig Nall, Charlie Batch, Brad Johnson, Drew Bledsoe



Comments: Youth movement all over this chart. Ramsey is a gut call - not much more. I just think he gets another chance as a starter at some point.



RUNNING BACKS:

Travis Henry (+4)

Musa Smith (+3)

Leon Washington (+3)

Chris Perry (+8)

Domanick Davis (+9)

Justin Fargas (+7)

Mike Bell (-3)

Mewelde Moore (-3)

Cedric Houston (-10)

Wali Lundy (-6)



Additions: Ricky Williams (MIA?), Correll Buckhalter, Kevan Barlow, Adrian Peterson

Subtractions: Michale Pittman, Sammy Morris, Tiki Barber, Samkon Gado



Comments: D. Davis - still not sure if he'll ever play again, but where I have him it is worth the risk. Ricky Williams is also a wildcard. Look for more youth to climb this chart after the rookies are added.



WIDE RECEIVERS:

Greg Jennings (+6)

Brandon Jones (+28)

Brandon Marshall (+23)

Reche Caldwell (+27)

DJ Hackett (+10)

Demetrius Williams (+17)

Vincent Jackson (+10)

Drew Carter (+5)

Samie Parker (-16)

Additions: Derek Hagan (MIA), Jeff Webb (KC) (SLEEPER), Jabar Gaffney, Ronald Curry

Subtractions: Joe Horn, Wes Welker, Cedrick Wilson, Amani Toomer



Comments: Once again, youth movement in full effect. A few young WRs with shots at the #1 / starting roles climb the charts.

Toomer was very close to making Top 75.

TIGHT ENDS:

Jermaine Wiggins (-2)

Kris Wilson (-6)

Additions: Dave "Biggie Size" Thomas, Bubba Franks

Subtractions: Randal Williams, Steve Heiden



Comments: Not much change here. Wilson goes down due to the Tony Gonzalez contract.

 
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:lmao:

Only comment / complaint is I would like to see a write up off the players included with the link. I know that will take time to update, but are you working on it?

 
First observation:

Portis = #6 and #5; SA = #5 and #15 (Jeff's ranking first).

Jeff, would you not trade SA in exchange for Portis straight-up in dynasty?

Granted, both players have a little baggage to consider (injury, age, situation), but if I ranked players, I'd put Portis #5, I think.

 
:XOnly comment / complaint is I would like to see a write up off the players included with the link. I know that will take time to update, but are you working on it?
Hi Oz,I'm not going to be talking about each and every one each time I update the rankings, but if you have a particular question I could address it.I'm actually working on a new idea for the rankings, so I'm just going to hang with this method until April or May.
 
First observation:Portis = #6 and #5; SA = #5 and #15 (Jeff's ranking first).Jeff, would you not trade SA in exchange for Portis straight-up in dynasty? Granted, both players have a little baggage to consider (injury, age, situation), but if I ranked players, I'd put Portis #5, I think.
Word is that they will try and either move Portis (unlikely) or implement more of a RBBC with Betts. I like SA more.
 
Additional random thoughts:

Does Ronnie Brown get a bump from Bloom in light of the Cam Cameron hiring?

Losman is ranked too low.

As a Leinart owner, I hope y'all are right.

Simms has the makings of a bargain, depending on moves TB may make at QB this off-season.

I guess you have to play it conservative with regards to Cedric Benson, but his fantasy upside is quite high.

Chris Brown is too good to drop off the radar.

I'm not touching TO.

I agree with Bloom regarding VJax and ChadJax's relatively high ranking.

 
Jeff - what made you bump up Chris Perry, Dom Davis & Justin Fargas so many spots?
Perry - clear 2nd fiddle to a good run offensive team. One nick to Rudi away from being the guy.I held him low before b/c of injury IIRC.Dom Davis - Tough, tough call. I have him where I have him (honestly don't remember, I'm guessing 50-ish) because IF he comes back, he could be the clear #1 again and return to RB1/RB2 form. But - the odds are stacked way against it. If he was 100% healthy he'd be Top 20 for sure. If he's out for a long time / ever and/or the Texans draft a RB, he doesn't belong in the Top 60.I chose a middle ground as he deserves consideration just because of the "he could be studly if things go his way" factor.Fargas - rumors of sharing the ball with LamJ, and he was a rare bright spot for Oakland. New coaching staff and Huggie Bear Jr. has some upside. Some of Fargas' jump is due to others that sank as well.
 
I like the rankings. Jeff, I do have a couple of questions:

Do you like/hate the Falcon RBs? I ask because you have neither Dunn or Norwood RB25

Why so high on Dom RHodes since he should be a FA?

Lastly, why the love for Kitna? You think the Lions pass on QB until round 3 or later?

Good job. Thanks.

 
Explain why Braylon Edwards and Mark Clayton could drop after showing development year over year?

 
Explain why Braylon Edwards and Mark Clayton could drop after showing development year over year?
Good question.They dropped because of two similar, yet different reasons.1 - The similarity is that I didn't move either one (they marched in step), but rather they sank because others leapfrogged them both.2 - Edwards. QB issues in Cleveland hold him back, and his "headcase" status holds him back more.3 - Clayton. I love this guy, but I don't see him being a bigtime #1. I'd argue that he could move up faster than Edwards if Baltimore has a longer term solution in the passing game. He's clearly becoming the #1 WR there (if he isn't already, which I think he was the 2nd half of '06), but I don't trust Billick. Offensive genius? Hardly. Just look at the QB carousel before McNair. He loved Kyle Boller, and stuck with him far too long. His offense isn't cutting it.Moreover, Heap and Demetrius Williams are presenting good alternative targets in Baltimore. I like Clayton and could certainly see his stock rise, but for now I left him alone.The overall dip was small (down 3 each) so I wouldn't put much weight into their drop.
 
I like the rankings. Jeff, I do have a couple of questions:Do you like/hate the Falcon RBs? I ask because you have neither Dunn or Norwood RB25Why so high on Dom RHodes since he should be a FA?Lastly, why the love for Kitna? You think the Lions pass on QB until round 3 or later?Good job. Thanks.
Thanks Wannabee.Taking a 4-year perspective, I see Dunn producing for a year or two at most, with Norwood taking over the reins. There's no clear plan as to what happens with Petrino as the new HC, but I see multiple answers - RBBC, one becomes the 3rd down guy, or other back(s) are brought in. I could see Petrino try and bring in his former RB in Michael Bush if he gets the chance.Let's take the most likely scenario, and I see Norwood taking the "SJax" role over Dunn's "Marshall Faulk" role to make the analogy to the Rams in 2005. SJax became a stud once Faulk handed the full role over, so that could elevate Norwood to full blown RB1 status. The question becomes is the better comparison 2005 or 2004?Once the picture becomes more clear I see Norwood as the most likely benefactor, but with the possibilities of him not getting the majority of the touches for 1-2 years I can't quite put him as high as others on the list.Kitna - That was a tricky one. I did go and look at his age (34), but I don't see a lot of mileage on this guy. He seems like he's settled in with Detroit, much like Garcia (36) is happy in Philly, and he was very productive this past year. If I have him with just two more years of Top 12 production, I'm happy with that and he fully deserves his ranking just for those two years alone. I found it interesting that many QBs were still starting at age 36 and we know that players are playing a little longer than in years past. I think Kitna can be a starter for 2-3 more years, possibly a few more.(I also found it interesting that McNair is YOUNGER than Kitna - that really surprised me).
 
Do you have Addai too low? Seems to me even with competition he should only improve especially if he gets receiving production in that offense.

 
First observation:Portis = #6 and #5; SA = #5 and #15 (Jeff's ranking first).Jeff, would you not trade SA in exchange for Portis straight-up in dynasty? Granted, both players have a little baggage to consider (injury, age, situation), but if I ranked players, I'd put Portis #5, I think.
Word is that they will try and either move Portis (unlikely) or implement more of a RBBC with Betts. I like SA more.
Other than FBG speculation, where are you hearing this word?
 
I've seen the Portis/Betts thing everywhere. The fact they kept Betts who looked good and Portis who really has had more injured years than healthy has him on my avoid except at a bargain list.

 
Do you have Addai too low? Seems to me even with competition he should only improve especially if he gets receiving production in that offense.
We're entitled to disagree here, but I think I have him about the right spot.I don't see RB1 out of him - yet. He is getting better in blitz pickup and as a receiver, so I'm encouraged there, but I don't know if he can be an every down, every series back. Even if he is, I don't know if he can put up the numbers required to be considered a higher pick, nor am I certain he can last a full slate of games.Again - RBBC - coaches see that you need two backs for both versatility and also for keeping them both fresh and healthy for 5 months. Great NFL plan, bad for fantasy owners.
 
I've seen the Portis/Betts thing everywhere. The fact they kept Betts who looked good and Portis who really has had more injured years than healthy has him on my avoid except at a bargain list.
Portis missed a total of four games in his first four seasons.And, I'm aware the RBBC thing is "everywhere". However, it's not from any source that matters. All indications are that Gibbs is going to control the offense like he did the last 5-6 weeks of 2006. Saunders will call the plays, but Gibbs will guide the philosophy. And, Gibbs LOVES Portis.Will they use Betts? Sure. If Portis is healthy, will Portis have less than 300 touches? No chance. The Skins ran the ball 490 times this year. good for 8th in the NFL. And, they did that as a 5-11 team. If they had more leads to protect, they would have easily broken 500 carries. So, even if Betts does cut in some, there's enough to go around, IMO.
 
See some rebound possibility in LaMont Jordan ranked that highly?

Also - I could be wrong about this, but I believe Fargas is a free agent. Not sure he's going to be retained.

 
I've seen the Portis/Betts thing everywhere. The fact they kept Betts who looked good and Portis who really has had more injured years than healthy has him on my avoid except at a bargain list.
Portis missed a total of four games in his first four seasons.And, I'm aware the RBBC thing is "everywhere". However, it's not from any source that matters. All indications are that Gibbs is going to control the offense like he did the last 5-6 weeks of 2006. Saunders will call the plays, but Gibbs will guide the philosophy. And, Gibbs LOVES Portis.

Will they use Betts? Sure. If Portis is healthy, will Portis have less than 300 touches? No chance. The Skins ran the ball 490 times this year. good for 8th in the NFL. And, they did that as a 5-11 team. If they had more leads to protect, they would have easily broken 500 carries. So, even if Betts does cut in some, there's enough to go around, IMO.
:lmao: I'm not saying Portis is a guy I want to bank on, but the trade talk and Betts stealing carries is still solely speculation. Links have been provided to the blogger and other sources, and they showed nothing earth shatteringly different in the Redskins' plans.

"Clinton is certainly our guy" and "we want to keep Ladell involved" are the same types of things Gibbs said going into '06, and that didn't dampen Portis' pre-draft value this year.

 
See some rebound possibility in LaMont Jordan ranked that highly?Also - I could be wrong about this, but I believe Fargas is a free agent. Not sure he's going to be retained.
I still hold hope for LamJ.As for Fargas:Salary History2003 225000.002004 305000.002005 380000.002006 500000.002007 545000.00
 
Portis is a Top 5-7 back for Bloom and I.

Debating 5, 6, 7 doesn't matter that much. He's good. He will be good. Get him if you can.

 
I've seen the Portis/Betts thing everywhere. The fact they kept Betts who looked good and Portis who really has had more injured years than healthy has him on my avoid except at a bargain list.
Portis missed a total of four games in his first four seasons.And, I'm aware the RBBC thing is "everywhere". However, it's not from any source that matters. All indications are that Gibbs is going to control the offense like he did the last 5-6 weeks of 2006. Saunders will call the plays, but Gibbs will guide the philosophy. And, Gibbs LOVES Portis.

Will they use Betts? Sure. If Portis is healthy, will Portis have less than 300 touches? No chance. The Skins ran the ball 490 times this year. good for 8th in the NFL. And, they did that as a 5-11 team. If they had more leads to protect, they would have easily broken 500 carries. So, even if Betts does cut in some, there's enough to go around, IMO.
:shrug: :lmao:
 
Portis is a Top 5-7 back for Bloom and I. Debating 5, 6, 7 doesn't matter that much. He's good. He will be good. Get him if you can.
I concur, BUT, this off-season, deals involving Portis and Alexander are significant. If I own Portis, no way do I deal him for SA.I predict Portis vs. SA will be a hot-button topic this off-season.
 
I only looked at the positional rankings. Overall rankings are less useful because they depend more on format. For example, in PPR I'd definitely take Anquan Boldin over Shaun Alexander, but it's a tough call in a non-PPR. Anyhow, on to my comments:

RBs

Good

LenDale White - I like that you haven't written him off. He's a solid dynasty investment right now.

Brandon Jacobs - You're not buying the hype. I like that. I would sell this kid right now. Has one of these TD vulture types ever gone on to a successful career as a starter? I can't think of an example off the top of my head.

Joseph Addai - I think Addai is overrated right now. Nothing about him has ever stood out to me as special. It will be hard for him to be a flop in Indy and you simply can't ignore the nice stats that he posted as a rookie, but I'm going to be avoiding him at his dynasty ADP.

Bad

Shaun Alexander - I would never take him in the top 10. He can't possibly have very much gas left. Recent history has shown that using an early dynasty pick on a RB near the end of his rope can have disastrous consequences. Owners burned 1st round picks on Holmes and Faulk as recently as 2-3 years ago.

DeAngelo Williams - I know you like this kid, but I don't think he's done enough to justify this ranking. He may ultimately end up being a much better player than Maurice Drew, but Drew easily outclassed him last season and it's not like Fred Taylor is a much bigger obstacle than DeShaun Foster.

Ronnie Brown - I've never liked this guy and nothing has changed my mind. Overrated talent on a team in turmoil. Not a good combination.

Chester Taylor - Yea he had a good year, but he's just too mediocre for me to draft this high. Almost all of the ten guys listed directly after him have more talent, IMO.

Warrick Dunn - This guy is just about finished. I would be doing cartwheels if I could get Chris Perry or Ladell Betts for him.

Ladell Betts - Kid rips off a monster year and he's not even in your top 35? I know opportunity is half the battle, but there has to be room for this guy somewhere.

Chris Perry - Remember LaMont Jordan and Larry Johnson? They got their shot. The injuries are a concern, but you have to think Perry is going to get a chance to start sooner or later. He is an insane value as the RB47.

Vernand Morency - I'm not a huge fan, but he seems like a bargain as RB59. That's 20 slots below Brian Calhoun and 15 spots behind dead-man-walking Dominic Rhodes.

WRs

Good

Bernard Berrian - Quietly developing into an intriguing option. I like where you have him. It seems about right.

Darrell Jackson - Mr. Consistent. 14 is about right.

Bad

Terrell Owens - It's time to move on, IMO. He had his glory days. They're over.

TJ Houshmandzadeh - This year's version of last year's Chambers or S. Moss. He's more consistent than those two, but he's the classic case of a guy's value exploding after a fluke monster year. He might not even be the second most talented WR on his team and he's in the top 10. I disagree with that. Hell would freeze over before I'd pass on Andre Johnson or Lee Evans for Housh.

Lee Evans - I've always been a big fan. I'd take him ahead of Colston, Harrison, and Houshmandzadeh. I would strongly consider taking him ahead of Walker and Roy Williams. People forget how good Evans is.

Michael Clayton - I know it's been a rough two years, but behind Reche Caldwell, Demetrius Williams, and DJ Hackett? Wow. Clayton was extremely impressive as a rookie. History has taught me not to ignore first round talents who have flashed major skills. Remember when we all wrote off Terry Glenn and Joey Galloway. Yea...

I am too tired of typing to do QBs and TEs. Maybe later.

 
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A general comment:

Dynasty rankings are tough. After the top 6-8 guys at each position, things get very dicey. I don't see a very big dropoff between your RB15 and your RB35. Likewise, I think most of the WRs in the 15-30 range are fairly interchangeable.

I'm not quite sure what the lesson here is, but I guess if you can't land the big time performers then it might be wise to trade down and get some extra picks.

 
A general comment:Dynasty rankings are tough. After the top 6-8 guys at each position, things get very dicey. I don't see a very big dropoff between your RB15 and your RB35. Likewise, I think most of the WRs in the 15-30 range are fairly interchangeable. I'm not quite sure what the lesson here is, but I guess if you can't land the big time performers then it might be wise to trade down and get some extra picks.
I'll agree with that assessment.It ain't easy, but that's why everyone wants to see our rankings I guess.
 
I only looked at the positional rankings. Overall rankings are less useful because they depend more on format. For example, in PPR I'd definitely take Anquan Boldin over Shaun Alexander, but it's a tough call in a non-PPR. Anyhow, on to my comments:

RBs

Good

LenDale White - I like that you haven't written him off. He's a solid dynasty investment right now.

Brandon Jacobs - You're not buying the hype. I like that. I would sell this kid right now. Has one of these TD vulture types ever gone on to a successful career as a starter? I can't think of an example off the top of my head.

Joseph Addai - I think Addai is overrated right now. Nothing about him has ever stood out to me as special. It will be hard for him to be a flop in Indy and you simply can't ignore the nice stats that he posted as a rookie, but I'm going to be avoiding him at his dynasty ADP.

Bad

Shaun Alexander - I would never take him in the top 10. He can't possibly have very much gas left. Recent history has shown that using an early dynasty pick on a RB near the end of his rope can have disastrous consequences. Owners burned 1st round picks on Holmes and Faulk as recently as 2-3 years ago.

DeAngelo Williams - I know you like this kid, but I don't think he's done enough to justify this ranking. He may ultimately end up being a much better player than Maurice Drew, but Drew easily outclassed him last season and it's not like Fred Taylor is a much bigger obstacle than DeShaun Foster.

Ronnie Brown - I've never liked this guy and nothing has changed my mind. Overrated talent on a team in turmoil. Not a good combination.

Chester Taylor - Yea he had a good year, but he's just too mediocre for me to draft this high. Almost all of the ten guys listed directly after him have more talent, IMO.

Warrick Dunn - This guy is just about finished. I would be doing cartwheels if I could get Chris Perry or Ladell Betts for him.

Ladell Betts - Kid rips off a monster year and he's not even in your top 35? I know opportunity is half the battle, but there has to be room for this guy somewhere.

Chris Perry - Remember LaMont Jordan and Larry Johnson? They got their shot. The injuries are a concern, but you have to think Perry is going to get a chance to start sooner or later. He is an insane value as the RB47.

Vernand Morency - I'm not a huge fan, but he seems like a bargain as RB59. That's 20 slots below Brian Calhoun and 15 spots behind dead-man-walking Dominic Rhodes.
Thanks on the good ones. :yes: We'll have to agree to disagree on some of the RBs. Betts - I can see him moving up - that might have been a slight for him there. He could move up a few spots next time around.

CTaylor - who's challenging him? Plus Brad Childress still has a man-crush on him.

I don't see the feature back nature to Chris Perry.

WRs

Good

Bernard Berrian - Quietly developing into an intriguing option. I like where you have him. It seems about right.

Darrell Jackson - Mr. Consistent. 14 is about right.

Bad

Terrell Owens - It's time to move on, IMO. He had his glory days. They're over.

TJ Houshmandzadeh - This year's version of last year's Chambers or S. Moss. He's more consistent than those two, but he's the classic case of a guy's value exploding after a fluke monster year. He might not even be the second most talented WR on his team and he's in the top 10. I disagree with that. Hell would freeze over before I'd pass on Andre Johnson or Lee Evans for Housh.

Lee Evans - I've always been a big fan. I'd take him ahead of Colston, Harrison, and Houshmandzadeh. I would strongly consider taking him ahead of Walker and Roy Williams. People forget how good Evans is.

Michael Clayton - I know it's been a rough two years, but behind Reche Caldwell, Demetrius Williams, and DJ Hackett? Wow. Clayton was extremely impressive as a rookie. History has taught me not to ignore first round talents who have flashed major skills. Remember when we all wrote off Terry Glenn and Joey Galloway. Yea...

I am too tired of typing to do QBs and TEs. Maybe later.
TO could and should move down. Good point. I didn't really touch the Top 20-25.I can't get behind Michael Clayton.

Thanks for the comments as always EBF.

 
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I only looked at the positional rankings. Overall rankings are less useful because they depend more on format. For example, in PPR I'd definitely take Anquan Boldin over Shaun Alexander, but it's a tough call in a non-PPR. Anyhow, on to my comments:

RBs

Good

LenDale White - I like that you haven't written him off. He's a solid dynasty investment right now.

Brandon Jacobs - You're not buying the hype. I like that. I would sell this kid right now. Has one of these TD vulture types ever gone on to a successful career as a starter? I can't think of an example off the top of my head.

Joseph Addai - I think Addai is overrated right now. Nothing about him has ever stood out to me as special. It will be hard for him to be a flop in Indy and you simply can't ignore the nice stats that he posted as a rookie, but I'm going to be avoiding him at his dynasty ADP.

Bad

Shaun Alexander - I would never take him in the top 10. He can't possibly have very much gas left. Recent history has shown that using an early dynasty pick on a RB near the end of his rope can have disastrous consequences. Owners burned 1st round picks on Holmes and Faulk as recently as 2-3 years ago.

DeAngelo Williams - I know you like this kid, but I don't think he's done enough to justify this ranking. He may ultimately end up being a much better player than Maurice Drew, but Drew easily outclassed him last season and it's not like Fred Taylor is a much bigger obstacle than DeShaun Foster.

Ronnie Brown - I've never liked this guy and nothing has changed my mind. Overrated talent on a team in turmoil. Not a good combination.

Chester Taylor - Yea he had a good year, but he's just too mediocre for me to draft this high. Almost all of the ten guys listed directly after him have more talent, IMO.

Warrick Dunn - This guy is just about finished. I would be doing cartwheels if I could get Chris Perry or Ladell Betts for him.

Ladell Betts - Kid rips off a monster year and he's not even in your top 35? I know opportunity is half the battle, but there has to be room for this guy somewhere.

Chris Perry - Remember LaMont Jordan and Larry Johnson? They got their shot. The injuries are a concern, but you have to think Perry is going to get a chance to start sooner or later. He is an insane value as the RB47.

Vernand Morency - I'm not a huge fan, but he seems like a bargain as RB59. That's 20 slots below Brian Calhoun and 15 spots behind dead-man-walking Dominic Rhodes.

WRs

Good

Bernard Berrian - Quietly developing into an intriguing option. I like where you have him. It seems about right.

Darrell Jackson - Mr. Consistent. 14 is about right.

Bad

Terrell Owens - It's time to move on, IMO. He had his glory days. They're over.

TJ Houshmandzadeh - This year's version of last year's Chambers or S. Moss. He's more consistent than those two, but he's the classic case of a guy's value exploding after a fluke monster year. He might not even be the second most talented WR on his team and he's in the top 10. I disagree with that. Hell would freeze over before I'd pass on Andre Johnson or Lee Evans for Housh.

Lee Evans - I've always been a big fan. I'd take him ahead of Colston, Harrison, and Houshmandzadeh. I would strongly consider taking him ahead of Walker and Roy Williams. People forget how good Evans is.

Michael Clayton - I know it's been a rough two years, but behind Reche Caldwell, Demetrius Williams, and DJ Hackett? Wow. Clayton was extremely impressive as a rookie. History has taught me not to ignore first round talents who have flashed major skills. Remember when we all wrote off Terry Glenn and Joey Galloway. Yea...

I am too tired of typing to do QBs and TEs. Maybe later.
:clyde: Great food for thought here. Nice work as usual EBF.

I agree with almost everything you said about the RBs, but here are the two I see differently:

I'd say Betts can't go any higher than the 35-40 range. It's not just that he's not likely to have the opportunity for startable value, it's that his newly signed contract may just leave him with no value through the rest of his career barring injury or trade. I agree that you want to reward him after an impressive season, but unfortunately that's just not how rankings work. The projections just aren't there.

I'll be shocked if Chris Perry ever gets a full-time RB gig in the NFL. He's very prone to injuries, he's shown little beyond 3rd down back ability in the pros, he doesn't get in the end zone and he mixes a few impressive plays with many more that go nowhere. Who does that sound like? He's the next DeShaun Foster if he's lucky enough to get that opportunity. I think 45-50 is about right for Perry.

On WRs, I think you nailed Houshmandzadeh. I couldn't have said it better, and I've watched almost every game Housh has played in the NFL. He's a very good football player, but I think he just had his career year. And you're right, he's absolutely no better than the 3rd most talented WR on the Bengals roster. No way I'd consider taking him over elite talents like Lee Evans or Andre Johnson.

I'm with Jeff on Michael Clayton. He's just not doing it for me. In addition to the disappointing play on the field, he's been alternately out of shape and injured the past couple of seasons. Throw in a QB situation that would generously be described as sketchy, and I'd much rather have a guy like Reche Caldwell who was eminently startable the 2nd half of the season and has a decent chance to be the Pats #1 WR for the next couple of years. I'd probably take D.J. Hackett over him as well. Demetrius Williams...I don't know. Six of one...half dozen of another.

Once you get past the startable WRs, it's a just a matter of preference on who you think wins the crapshoot. Those rankings beyond 40 are mostly based on upside/potential and pretty hit & miss in accuracy terms. Many of them will never make the leap to fantasy starter.

 
Agree with those saying ranking SA #5 is a recipe for disaster and could put you in a dynasty hole for a number of years afterwards.

The overall rankings are just weird in some spots and for some players. Nobody is going to trade Cadillac Williams in a dynasty for Tony Gonzalez straight up. Yet Gonzo is ranked higher overall. Yeah, Caddy had a bad year but he's 24 coming off a good year in which he was touted as a top 10 dynasty pick in drafts. Now he's behind a 31 year old tight end? You'd get laughed at for offering that deal.

 
Agree with those saying ranking SA #5 is a recipe for disaster and could put you in a dynasty hole for a number of years afterwards. The overall rankings are just weird in some spots and for some players. Nobody is going to trade Cadillac Williams in a dynasty for Tony Gonzalez straight up. Yet Gonzo is ranked higher overall. Yeah, Caddy had a bad year but he's 24 coming off a good year in which he was touted as a top 10 dynasty pick in drafts. Now he's behind a 31 year old tight end? You'd get laughed at for offering that deal.
That's a good question for Bloom when he gets back next week from the Senior Bowl.
 
Jeff Pasquino said:
wannabee said:
I like the rankings. Jeff, I do have a couple of questions:Do you like/hate the Falcon RBs? I ask because you have neither Dunn or Norwood RB25Why so high on Dom RHodes since he should be a FA?Lastly, why the love for Kitna? You think the Lions pass on QB until round 3 or later?Good job. Thanks.
Thanks Wannabee.Taking a 4-year perspective, I see Dunn producing for a year or two at most, with Norwood taking over the reins. There's no clear plan as to what happens with Petrino as the new HC, but I see multiple answers - RBBC, one becomes the 3rd down guy, or other back(s) are brought in. I could see Petrino try and bring in his former RB in Michael Bush if he gets the chance.Let's take the most likely scenario, and I see Norwood taking the "SJax" role over Dunn's "Marshall Faulk" role to make the analogy to the Rams in 2005. SJax became a stud once Faulk handed the full role over, so that could elevate Norwood to full blown RB1 status. The question becomes is the better comparison 2005 or 2004?Once the picture becomes more clear I see Norwood as the most likely benefactor, but with the possibilities of him not getting the majority of the touches for 1-2 years I can't quite put him as high as others on the list.Kitna - That was a tricky one. I did go and look at his age (34), but I don't see a lot of mileage on this guy. He seems like he's settled in with Detroit, much like Garcia (36) is happy in Philly, and he was very productive this past year. If I have him with just two more years of Top 12 production, I'm happy with that and he fully deserves his ranking just for those two years alone. I found it interesting that many QBs were still starting at age 36 and we know that players are playing a little longer than in years past. I think Kitna can be a starter for 2-3 more years, possibly a few more.(I also found it interesting that McNair is YOUNGER than Kitna - that really surprised me).
Just wanted to add about Kitna:He's cheap.Salary History2006 1450000.002007 1450000.002008 1950000.002009 1950000.00That's less than $2M for a Top 10 QB in the NFL - pretty good stuff. Of course, when he was brought to Detroit, he was competing with McCown for the starter role.I wouldn't be surprised for Kitna to be the starter for 3 more years in Detroit. If they draft a QB Day 1 (still don't think a first rounder at QB makes sense), look for him to learn from the sidelines for 2-3 years a la Rivers or Romo.
 
Jeff Pasquino said:
Ariakis said:
I've seen the Portis/Betts thing everywhere. The fact they kept Betts who looked good and Portis who really has had more injured years than healthy has him on my avoid except at a bargain list.
:yes: Check the bogger, for example:

LINK
In regards to Betts contract, 5 years for $11 million. They paid Betts $3.5 million of that as a bonus in 2006, that won't cost towards thier cap moving forward. He gets a $2 million roster bonus in 2007 that leaves $5.5 million in salary spread over 5 years. Paying a backup Rb $1.1 million a season is not that unreasonable. The Redskins rewarded him for playing well this year by giving him most of this money up front. They had room under the salary cap to do this. His salaries moving forward are not going to make a big impact on thier salary cap to the effect that they will feel compelled to play him more because of it. He is great insurance as a capable backup Rb to Portis.In regards to the Post article from the blogger I think you can read that different ways. But the only facts of what Gibbs says in that article is that "Certainly Clinton's our guy" Gibbs then goes on to say "Ladell has a huge role for us and certainly there's room for having two good running backs and Ladell can also do a lot of other things for us. He's a heck of a receiver coming out of the backfield. "

The way I read that statement is a suggestion that they may use Portis and Betts on the field at the same time or that Betts may be used as a 3rd down Rb. He specificly comments about Betts ability as a reciever. The rest of the article I can only interpet as well deserved praise of Betts for what he did in the 2006 season. When obviously Portis was not healthy enough to play.

Betts is a good Rb. I have always thought that. Good enough that I have always thought he could be a starter in the NFL and he has shown to be that capable. But I don't see anything from these articles that would lead be to interpet this situation as a Portis/Betts RBBC. It suggests Betts as a COP the way I see it.

 
I don't understand something about the dynasty rankings. In the Overall Rankings, these running backs are listed in this order (I eliminated non-RB's to illustrate):

1 RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

2 RB Larry Johnson, KC

3 RB Steven Jackson, STL

4 RB Brian Westbrook, PHI

5 RB Clinton Portis, WAS

6 RB Frank Gore, SF

7 RB Rudi Johnson, CIN

8 RB Shaun Alexander, SEA

12 RB Reggie Bush, NO

In the Running Back Rankings they're listed in this order:

1 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

2 Larry Johnson, KC

3 Steven Jackson, STL

4 Brian Westbrook, PHI

5 Clinton Portis, WAS

6 Frank Gore, SF

7 Shaun Alexander, SEA

8 Reggie Bush, NO

9 Rudi Johnson, CIN

What's up with that?

 
I don't understand something about the dynasty rankings. In the Overall Rankings, these running backs are listed in this order (I eliminated non-RB's to illustrate):

1 RB LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

2 RB Larry Johnson, KC

3 RB Steven Jackson, STL

4 RB Brian Westbrook, PHI

5 RB Clinton Portis, WAS

6 RB Frank Gore, SF

7 RB Rudi Johnson, CIN 8/8

8 RB Shaun Alexander, SEA 5/15

12 RB Reggie Bush, NO 16/6

In the Running Back Rankings they're listed in this order:

1 LaDainian Tomlinson, SD

2 Larry Johnson, KC

3 Steven Jackson, STL

4 Brian Westbrook, PHI

5 Clinton Portis, WAS

6 Frank Gore, SF

7 Shaun Alexander, SEA 5/10

8 Reggie Bush, NO 10/6

9 Rudi Johnson, CIN 8/8

What's up with that?
Those are averages of our two rankings. I put the actual individual rankings in the quote, Jeff's first. The program averages them, so in the RB ranks, 7.5, 8, 8, overall 8,10,11.PS Ill be doing a massive update of my rankings after Im done with my early draft blitz in Mobile.

 
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Generally I like the list. Good Job.

Too high:

RB Shaun Alexander, SEA - I think he has entered his decline phase. I don’t see him coming close to matching his 2005 numbers ever again.

TE Antonio Gates, SD - Too high in relation to the other TEs. There is not enough separation between him and his peers to have him 30 spots higher than the next TE. I would much rather have a RB or WR in the spot you have him.

RB DeAngelo Williams, CAR – Has not done enough to justify being this high on the list. This team changes RBs every two years. They have never had a RB lead the team in rushing more than two years.

QB Jay Cutler, DEN – Again he has not done enough to justify being this high on the list.

I am not ready to put him this high after only 5 starts.

Too low:

RB Joseph Addai, IND – He seems like a pretty safe pick to me. He may never put up super stud numbers, but he will always put up startable numbers. I don’t see him putting up numbers worse than he did this year anytime soon.

QB Vince Young, TEN – I don’t think you can group him with Leinart and Cutler. He seems to be the much better fantasy option.

 
Generally I like the list. Good Job.
Thanks.
Too high:RB Shaun Alexander, SEA - I think he has entered his decline phase. I don’t see him coming close to matching his 2005 numbers ever again.
Interesting trend here. I give a lot of weight on the front end of a 4-year outlook, and I think that some are accelerating the demise of SA a little too soon. He's two years younger than Tiki Barber. He turns 30 just before the 2007 season begins. He has 2,169 career touches in the regular season. The classic "dropoff" lines have been age 31 and 2,500 touches, so I think he has two solid years left. Years 3 and 4 may not be elite, but his overall value comes in the next two seasons. He's a Top RB in the league and I think he doesn't lose that status for another two seasons.Sounds like I could be getting him cheaply in the trading market.
TE Antonio Gates, SD - Too high in relation to the other TEs. There is not enough separation between him and his peers to have him 30 spots higher than the next TE. I would much rather have a RB or WR in the spot you have him.
Debatable and in FBG scoring, I might agree. In PPR leagues (which this should NOT reflect) I could see him even higher. I don't have a problem with him in this spot right now, but it could change.
RB DeAngelo Williams, CAR – Has not done enough to justify being this high on the list. This team changes RBs every two years. They have never had a RB lead the team in rushing more than two years.
Carolina spent their first pick on DeW, unlike Foster (2nd) and Stephen Davis (4th). They want him to succeed and I see 2006 much like Westbrook's rookie season.
QB Jay Cutler, DEN – Again he has not done enough to justify being this high on the list.I am not ready to put him this high after only 5 starts.
Cutler is better than Plummer, and he did well enough to rank highly (5th in 2004, 11th in 2005) in that offense with arguably weaker WRs. Cutler, Brandon Marshall, and Tony Scheffler should work well together with #1 target Javon Walker.
Too low:RB Joseph Addai, IND – He seems like a pretty safe pick to me. He may never put up super stud numbers, but he will always put up startable numbers. I don’t see him putting up numbers worse than he did this year anytime soon.
Commented above. I think this is right for him.
QB Vince Young, TEN – I don’t think you can group him with Leinart and Cutler. He seems to be the much better fantasy option.
VY just debuted in my Top 75 overall. I agree he has Vick-like production upside, but I don't think he'll run for 1,000 yards and he's about to lose Drew Bennett. One can also argue that LenDale White could take away some of his ground game (and QBs tend to run less as they age - see McNabb), but he still has room to go upwards. For now, a lower-tier QB1 is a good spot. Thanks again for the comments and discussion.
 
I am very interested in your ranking of Brian Westbrook at #4. I have him as a keeper in a nonppr league. Other owners have expressed interest in him. Although he finished well, I have him projected as a late first rounder because of injury concerns. Do others agree with him at #4 or is this just an overreactive bump following a couple of good playoff games?

 
Wow - Terrell Owens as the #15 overall WR? I know he has his baggage and age works against him in dynasty formats, but he when he plays he has been a lock for 80 catches/1200/double-digit TDs. I think putting Lee Evans, DJax, and Housh above him is a bit suspect. In terms of consistency, the only guys you can put over TO are Harrison, Chad J, and Holt. I would also rather have Steve Smith than him. After those 4 guys you can make an argument for Owens being the next guy. I mean Roy Williams had a "breakout" year this year, yet Owens still almost doubled Roy's TDs (13 for TO and 7 for Roy)

 
I am very interested in your ranking of Brian Westbrook at #4. I have him as a keeper in a nonppr league. Other owners have expressed interest in him. Although he finished well, I have him projected as a late first rounder because of injury concerns. Do others agree with him at #4 or is this just an overreactive bump following a couple of good playoff games?
If you're asking my opinion, I'll stand behind the #4 ranking, but if you want others to put forth their thoughts I'll wait to answer.
 
Wow - Terrell Owens as the #15 overall WR? I know he has his baggage and age works against him in dynasty formats, but he when he plays he has been a lock for 80 catches/1200/double-digit TDs. I think putting Lee Evans, DJax, and Housh above him is a bit suspect. In terms of consistency, the only guys you can put over TO are Harrison, Chad J, and Holt. I would also rather have Steve Smith than him. After those 4 guys you can make an argument for Owens being the next guy. I mean Roy Williams had a "breakout" year this year, yet Owens still almost doubled Roy's TDs (13 for TO and 7 for Roy)
I'd love to trade you TO if I was the owner in your league, sib.TO is 33 and has had multiple injuries and surgeries. I don't know if you'll get two full seasons, let alone two more years of elite production from TO.
 
:bow:Only comment / complaint is I would like to see a write up off the players included with the link. I know that will take time to update, but are you working on it?
Hi Oz,I'm not going to be talking about each and every one each time I update the rankings, but if you have a particular question I could address it.I'm actually working on a new idea for the rankings, so I'm just going to hang with this method until April or May.
What I'm referring to is when you read the list, and go to the player's link provided, right now there is game info, which is great, but perhaps some commentary on next year's prospects could be written? Nowhere near as intensive as the preseason stuff, but more of a total year's breakdown and expected changes that could impact the player's value?For instance, if we linked Braylon Edwards, the commentary would discuss his injury, that he seems to have lost a step this year, whether you think he'll be better next year, and the QB situation. I love your work, just want more of it. :bow:
 
As for individual players, a few questions:

Eli Manning @ 12, below Leinart, Cutler and VY. Just seems low to me. I know he didn't play well this year, but he still has top 5 talent IMO. How do you see the loss of Tiki affecting him?

Schaub and T Jackson above Cambell and Pennington? I know the hype is there for both, but Campbell played well enough to grade higher, I would think.

Evans? He was top 7 in some leagues this year, yet you have him at #17. What do you know that we don't?

 
Wow - Terrell Owens as the #15 overall WR? I know he has his baggage and age works against him in dynasty formats, but he when he plays he has been a lock for 80 catches/1200/double-digit TDs. I think putting Lee Evans, DJax, and Housh above him is a bit suspect. In terms of consistency, the only guys you can put over TO are Harrison, Chad J, and Holt. I would also rather have Steve Smith than him. After those 4 guys you can make an argument for Owens being the next guy. I mean Roy Williams had a "breakout" year this year, yet Owens still almost doubled Roy's TDs (13 for TO and 7 for Roy)
I'd love to trade you TO if I was the owner in your league, sib.TO is 33 and has had multiple injuries and surgeries. I don't know if you'll get two full seasons, let alone two more years of elite production from TO.
Well let's just say I wouldn't give up Steven Jackson for TO :wall: . I actually did trade for TO prior to this season in a dynasty league. I gave up Deion Branch, Reggie Brown, and Tony Gonzalez for him; I have no regrets over the deal. You do make a fair point about TO's age and surgeries, but I still thought he looked pretty good this year. I think where we differ is that I think despite his age, TO has another 3, 4 very good years in him. I don't see TO's injuries/surgeries hurting him too much on the field (except this year when i'm sure his finger issues played a part in some of his drops). I would probably rank Harrison a little higher than #9 for that same reason as well. TO like Harrison is always in exceptional shape and that's why I guess I'm more bullish on 3, 4 years of solid production from Owens.
 
Wow - Terrell Owens as the #15 overall WR? I know he has his baggage and age works against him in dynasty formats, but he when he plays he has been a lock for 80 catches/1200/double-digit TDs. I think putting Lee Evans, DJax, and Housh above him is a bit suspect. In terms of consistency, the only guys you can put over TO are Harrison, Chad J, and Holt. I would also rather have Steve Smith than him. After those 4 guys you can make an argument for Owens being the next guy. I mean Roy Williams had a "breakout" year this year, yet Owens still almost doubled Roy's TDs (13 for TO and 7 for Roy)
I'd love to trade you TO if I was the owner in your league, sib.TO is 33 and has had multiple injuries and surgeries. I don't know if you'll get two full seasons, let alone two more years of elite production from TO.
Well let's just say I wouldn't give up Steven Jackson for TO :mellow: . I actually did trade for TO prior to this season in a dynasty league. I gave up Deion Branch, Reggie Brown, and Tony Gonzalez for him; I have no regrets over the deal. You do make a fair point about TO's age and surgeries, but I still thought he looked pretty good this year. I think where we differ is that I think despite his age, TO has another 3, 4 very good years in him. I don't see TO's injuries/surgeries hurting him too much on the field (except this year when i'm sure his finger issues played a part in some of his drops). I would probably rank Harrison a little higher than #9 for that same reason as well. TO like Harrison is always in exceptional shape and that's why I guess I'm more bullish on 3, 4 years of solid production from Owens.
Perhaps you did not hear that TO playing through the injury in his hand is going to make the surgurey less effective in repairing it if it can be repaired at all. I read somthing to this effect and that his fingers may never be the same again.
 
Wow - Terrell Owens as the #15 overall WR? I know he has his baggage and age works against him in dynasty formats, but he when he plays he has been a lock for 80 catches/1200/double-digit TDs. I think putting Lee Evans, DJax, and Housh above him is a bit suspect. In terms of consistency, the only guys you can put over TO are Harrison, Chad J, and Holt. I would also rather have Steve Smith than him. After those 4 guys you can make an argument for Owens being the next guy. I mean Roy Williams had a "breakout" year this year, yet Owens still almost doubled Roy's TDs (13 for TO and 7 for Roy)
I'd love to trade you TO if I was the owner in your league, sib.TO is 33 and has had multiple injuries and surgeries. I don't know if you'll get two full seasons, let alone two more years of elite production from TO.
Well let's just say I wouldn't give up Steven Jackson for TO :mellow: . I actually did trade for TO prior to this season in a dynasty league. I gave up Deion Branch, Reggie Brown, and Tony Gonzalez for him; I have no regrets over the deal. You do make a fair point about TO's age and surgeries, but I still thought he looked pretty good this year. I think where we differ is that I think despite his age, TO has another 3, 4 very good years in him. I don't see TO's injuries/surgeries hurting him too much on the field (except this year when i'm sure his finger issues played a part in some of his drops). I would probably rank Harrison a little higher than #9 for that same reason as well. TO like Harrison is always in exceptional shape and that's why I guess I'm more bullish on 3, 4 years of solid production from Owens.
Perhaps you did not hear that TO playing through the injury in his hand is going to make the surgurey less effective in repairing it if it can be repaired at all. I read somthing to this effect and that his fingers may never be the same again.
I had heard that the surgery should get him to 100%:Cowboys receiver Terrell Owens underwent successful surgery Thursday in Miami to repair a torn tendon in his right ring finger.Owens played the latter part of the 2006 season with the injury even though he was told he was risking permanent damage. He went to Miami for another consultation before having the surgery and now is encouraged that he will have a full recovery.“The doctor is very optimistic,” Owens said from Miami Thursday night. “I am happy I had the surgery. I am happy with the news he gave me that I will return to 100 percent.”Owens said his Miami doctor stayed in constant contact with Cowboys trainer Jim Maurer during the process and everybody was on the same page. Owens said he is experiencing intense pain because it was a soft tissue injury. He wouldn’t put a timetable on when he will be catching passes again. But he said he will be ready for the 2007 season.
 
Wow - Terrell Owens as the #15 overall WR? I know he has his baggage and age works against him in dynasty formats, but he when he plays he has been a lock for 80 catches/1200/double-digit TDs. I think putting Lee Evans, DJax, and Housh above him is a bit suspect. In terms of consistency, the only guys you can put over TO are Harrison, Chad J, and Holt. I would also rather have Steve Smith than him. After those 4 guys you can make an argument for Owens being the next guy. I mean Roy Williams had a "breakout" year this year, yet Owens still almost doubled Roy's TDs (13 for TO and 7 for Roy)
I'd love to trade you TO if I was the owner in your league, sib.TO is 33 and has had multiple injuries and surgeries. I don't know if you'll get two full seasons, let alone two more years of elite production from TO.
Well let's just say I wouldn't give up Steven Jackson for TO :pickle: . I actually did trade for TO prior to this season in a dynasty league. I gave up Deion Branch, Reggie Brown, and Tony Gonzalez for him; I have no regrets over the deal. You do make a fair point about TO's age and surgeries, but I still thought he looked pretty good this year. I think where we differ is that I think despite his age, TO has another 3, 4 very good years in him. I don't see TO's injuries/surgeries hurting him too much on the field (except this year when i'm sure his finger issues played a part in some of his drops). I would probably rank Harrison a little higher than #9 for that same reason as well. TO like Harrison is always in exceptional shape and that's why I guess I'm more bullish on 3, 4 years of solid production from Owens.
Perhaps you did not hear that TO playing through the injury in his hand is going to make the surgurey less effective in repairing it if it can be repaired at all. I read somthing to this effect and that his fingers may never be the same again.
I had heard that the surgery should get him to 100%:Cowboys receiver Terrell Owens underwent successful surgery Thursday in Miami to repair a torn tendon in his right ring finger.Owens played the latter part of the 2006 season with the injury even though he was told he was risking permanent damage. He went to Miami for another consultation before having the surgery and now is encouraged that he will have a full recovery.“The doctor is very optimistic,” Owens said from Miami Thursday night. “I am happy I had the surgery. I am happy with the news he gave me that I will return to 100 percent.”Owens said his Miami doctor stayed in constant contact with Cowboys trainer Jim Maurer during the process and everybody was on the same page. Owens said he is experiencing intense pain because it was a soft tissue injury. He wouldn’t put a timetable on when he will be catching passes again. But he said he will be ready for the 2007 season.
At the time (about Thanksgiving) that TO's injury became known, there was talk of permanent damage if he continued to play and put off surgery.It sounds like his TWO surgeries will get him better, but frankly I'd expect ANY surgeon to be optimistic at this point.
 
I am very interested in your ranking of Brian Westbrook at #4. I have him as a keeper in a nonppr league. Other owners have expressed interest in him. Although he finished well, I have him projected as a late first rounder because of injury concerns. Do others agree with him at #4 or is this just an overreactive bump following a couple of good playoff games?
If you're asking my opinion, I'll stand behind the #4 ranking, but if you want others to put forth their thoughts I'll wait to answer.
I always respect your rankings and appreciate your efforts. I would be interested to see other opinions on Westbrook. I could simply be a nervous owner.
 

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