Dynasty RBs... (1 Viewer)

[Shutout]

In the last 2 seasons, I have seen every shred of conventional wisdom as it relates to RBs turned on its ear. It used to be that RBS were the one great "known" in FF.

1) A stud RB tended to reamin so and not fluctuate in value so much.

2) Older RBS died overnight.

3) RBs did nto tend to just show up and surprise people.

But now, in just the past few years I have seen:

-Arian foster come out of absolute nowhere

-DMAC hyped, then written off to the point where places like ROTO speculated he had lost his job at the beginning of last year, then he becomes a top back

-Guys like Michael Turner and Fred Jackson were supposed to be too old, yet they are key players for successful FF teams this year.

-Guys like Chris Johnson were supposed to be the most valuable RBs for the next 3-5 years, yet he looks absolutely pedestrian.

-Players no one in the NFL (or FF) wanted AT ALL (Kevin SMith/Chris O from Cleveland) become valuable players...this one really gets me...how can 99% of people in real life AND the FF forums say Kevin Smith is over and done with and then he show up in a real game and look like one of the best runners in the game.

Does anyone really know anything about RBs anymore or how to find the value in these players?

 

[squistion]

There is enough material in the OP for discussion topics in about 3 dynasty related threads but I will just focus on a few things.

Fantasy Football is a futures market. In order to do well in any futures market you have to be able to predict the future - but how many people have ever demonstrated they can do that? And the few that can usually can't do it on a consistent basis.

Look at the Make Your Bold Predictions threads that pop up before the season begins and then check back 6 months later and see how many people got anything right (the answer is very few).

All any of us can do is make an educated guess and do projections based on past statistics and tendencies, which resulted in the conventional wisdom in Dynasty leagues you mentioned below:

1) A stud RB tended to remain so and not fluctuate in value so much.

2) Older RBS died overnight.

3) RBs did not tend to just show up and surprise people.

All of the above are still pretty much true IMO and the fact that there are glaring exceptions to the rules this season doesn't mean that the rules aren't any good. Stud RBs are still a good Dynasty investment, the fact that Chris Johnson may have lost his mojo temporarily (or even permanently) doesn't change that. RBs usually start to decline when they hit 30 with some losing it quickly, but that was never something you could bank on. And while RBs coming out of nowhere has been more pronounced the last two years, perhaps that has to do with the premise that draft position and combine numbers are true factual indicators of any player's potential.I think my point is that a couple of seasons of outliers is not enough at this time to overturn what has been years of valid conventional wisdom. If these trends continue into 2012 then, yes, we will all have to rethink how we look at RBs in a Dynasty setting. Until then I still think these concepts represent sound thinking in trying to predict this futures market.

 

[jonboltz]

1) A stud RB tended to remain so and not fluctuate in value so much.2) Older RBS died overnight.3) RBs did not tend to just show up and surprise people.

All of the above are still pretty much true IMO and the fact that there are glaring exceptions to the rules this season doesn't mean that the rules aren't any good. Stud RBs are still a good Dynasty investment, the fact that Chris Johnson may have lost his mojo temporarily (or even permanently) doesn't change that. RBs usually start to decline when they hit 30 with some losing it quickly, but that was never something you could bank on. And while RBs coming out of nowhere has been more pronounced the last two years, perhaps that has to do with the premise that draft position and combine numbers are true factual indicators of any player's potential.

I disagree with all 3 of the quoted assumptions.

 

[thriftyrocker]

#3 is pretty much completely wrong. Every year RBs get hurt and their replacements come in and do okay. Ogbonnaya is no different from Samkon Gado. In deep leagues there's always owners scrambling to add ANY RB who either gets signed or gets promoted from the practice squad. It's how you turn a borderline team into a contender.

 

[bengalbuck]

Dynasty RB is a really tough position to plan for and succeed at. I've found a couple methods that have worked decently well for me at times that I'll probably try to duplicate with future teams:

1. Try to pinpoint a couple teams where it looks like (look at coaching history) they tend to use 1 guy the most (instead of a true committee) and where the offensive system allows for big RB points (PPR v. non-PPR will be very different). Then try to get the starter and the primary backup and maybe even the 3rd guy. For example, I have DMC, M. Bush and Taiwan Jones and I have Shady McCoy and Dion Lewis. Sometimes this is easier said than done though...One league that started last year I liked the Cleveland OL and the way they passed to their RB so I tried to lockup their backfield with James Harrison and Montario Hardesty. Was a little late picking up Hillis. Didn't get Ogbonayya either...and obviously that didn't work as well. I think if you're doing this strategy, you can't be hesitant to grab the #3 guy and you have to pay close attention to the local reports on how guys are looking in practice, etc.

2. Try to stock up with "sure things" at other positions so you can carry less guys at those positions. If you can limit yourself to 2 QBs, 2 TEs, etc. b/c you have 2 very good players there (and have enough proven guys at WR that you don't have to chase them on waivers), you can carry a ton of RBs and really go after a big portion of the late round and waiver wire guys. It's obviously always kind of hard to win the lotto, but the more tickets you have, the better your chances. I have rosters with 2 QBs, 2 TEs, 5 WRs and 12 RBs just because the turnover/injuries/busts are so much higher at the RB position.

3. Don't undervalue an older "low upside" RB that can give you solid production now. Guys like Darren Sproles, Michael Turner, Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch, etc. really fell far in startup drafts this year. I actually didn't draft any of these types of guys and I'm kicking myself for not recognizing their value. It's not like WR/TE/QB where guys regularly have value for 10+ years, so don't worry so much about 2-3 years down the road once you get to the 5th round and later...