Hey guys. Cavalier King Charles here.
I recently completed the startup draft for the $1,250 FFPC Dynasty League. The league is the first of its kind, the highest stakes league around, and the feel and mood of the draft reflected that. I’ve never experienced anything like it (and I’m in over 20 dynasty leagues), and the excitement throughout the startup draft (aided by 31(!) startup draft trades, 12 of which I was a part) certainly lived up to the FFPC’s build up of the league. I am including below a summary of my extreme strategy, my team and the overall draft results. .
My MO in a number of startups is not exactly popular, and I have been criticized here once or twice for going too extreme in drafting young or drafting college players (in devy leagues). Well, despite the high stakes (or the way I look at it, especially because of the high stakes) and after lots of planning and agonizing deliberation, I went the extreme route again, this time by acquiring 6 2011 1st round draft picks (inclusive of my own) in the startup draft (actually, at one point, I owned 8 1sts).
I wanted to discuss this strategy here since although it is not new, you don’t see it too often, and it can be easy to muck up. With the potential first place annual prize (starting Year 2 in my case) at over $7,000, I believe that the strategy, if implemented right, can be hugely successful and profitable (in this case, unlike the profit in any other dynasty league).
The general idea (common to many other strategies) is to play for the future rather than the current year. In my particular strategy, I am playing to dominate starting in Year 2 (not simply be competitive). The risk of implementing any strategy that foregoes the present for the future is that you may get stuck playing for the future for years and years. Obviously, at $1,250 per year, this could potentially get ridiculously expensive, so it is important that dominance is achieved by Year 2. In order to dominate that soon, I would need to amass a ridiculous amount of value by 2011, and the 6 1sts obviously are a big part of that value. That value then would be traded as needed to bring in quality vets to strengthen the team.
About those picks, those acquired early in the draft were essentially random other than knowing the first player or two of a team (although even knowing the first two players can be good information in determining if a pick has potential to be a good one). As the draft got into round 6, it became much easier to project out each team’s performance, and it became clear to me which picks were solid and which not so solid (which is why I ended up dumping 2 of the 8 picks – essentially for Demaryius Thomas). Accordingly, the remaining 6 I own are close to being hand picked, and I believe at least 4 and more likely 5 of the picks will be from non-playoff teams (i.e., 1.1-1.6). I also believe that I likely own picks 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 among the bunch (one of which is my own pick which was the easiest of all to project). In formulating the plan, I assumed the 6 picks would net me the equivalent of the 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 in next year’s draft (by consolidation of picks or otherwise). Using this year’s startup as a guide, that would be the equivalent of having an additional 1st, 2nd and 3rd round startup pick, a huge advantage assuming the pieces I acquire in this year’s startup are not too watered down as a result. A key piece of the plan is being able to trade down in the draft to acquire the picks, while still being able to acquire comparable “dynasty” talent at the traded down spot and sacrificing only “win now” talent (e.g., losing out on a Frank Gore (win now) for Jon Stewart instead (comparable dynasty talent taken at the lower draft slot). That’s the idea at least.
At a $1,250 annual buy in, I can see why this strategy may seem like lunacy to some and it has generated that kind of sentiment and skepticism on the FFPC message boards where it is discussed at length. The way I see it, the startup draft is the only shot you have to pull this off in a league like this (that is, to spend just one year building and thereafter dominate with the ability to keep it going indefinitely due to the resources amassed in Year 1). It is the one time you have the ability to hand pick the players that best suit this strategy and that help to minimize the risk in implementing it.
It is difficult to see from what I drafted what the team might look like starting in Year 2. For comparison purposes, the team I recently drafted (in 2009) that most similarly compares was in a $250 league (which was then considered “high stakes”). There, my team was bad in year 1 to put it kindly (ended up being the 1.03), but I did also hold 6 2010 1sts (a number of which were also hand picked). The lineup in that league going into year 2 (WCOFF rules and lineups) is now:
Favre/Ryan/Henne
Benson/Scott, Wells/Hightower
AJ, Roddy, Marshall, Austin – Sidney Rice on the bench
Dallas Clark (Olsen and Gresham on the bench)
Very strong (and in my mind, the clear #1 contender in 2011 – Year 2) and should remain that way for years, a team well worth the wait of 1 year. I think this FFPC team will be even better based on the pieces in place today.
Anyway, here is my team in order of where players were drafted (starting from the 12 hole). I’ll let the Shark Pool judge (draft slot in parenthesis). I’ve presented it this way (rather than in lineup form) since it’s the collective value of the players I really care about, not how my starting lineup stacks up in 2010 (and it stacks up very poorly). Rules: FFPC main event lineup and scoring (QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2 Flex, PPR with TEs getting 1.5 PPR).
RB Jon Stewart (2.10)
RB Rashard Mendenhall (3.04)
WR Vincent Jackson (4.08)
RB CJ Spiller (4.11)
WR Dwayne Bowe (6.01)
WR Demaryius Thomas (7.11)
WR Kenny Britt (7.12)
WR Braylon Edwards (11.05)
TE Jared Cook (13.02)
WR Lee Evans (14.01)
WR Donnie Avery (14.09)
DEF Vikings (15.12)
DEF Steelers (16.01)
QB David Garrard (17.12)
TE Rob Gronkowski (18.01)
TE Todd Heap (19.12)
WR Mardy Gilyard (20.01)
QB Tim Tebow (20.02)
RB Rashad Jennings (20.11)
and, like I said, 6 2011 1st round picks.
Obviously, unless I hit an early home run with Jared Cook in 2011 (and I just might), I will be looking to trade for a productive TE in 2011. QB is an obvious target as well. One interesting rule is that we have to cut down to 16 (including K and Def) after the NFL Superbowl, so guys like Garrard probably won’t even make the team next year. My contention is that with the vast resources I will have with the team above plus 6 1st round picks, I will be able to take care of those needs and a whole lot more.
I recently completed the startup draft for the $1,250 FFPC Dynasty League. The league is the first of its kind, the highest stakes league around, and the feel and mood of the draft reflected that. I’ve never experienced anything like it (and I’m in over 20 dynasty leagues), and the excitement throughout the startup draft (aided by 31(!) startup draft trades, 12 of which I was a part) certainly lived up to the FFPC’s build up of the league. I am including below a summary of my extreme strategy, my team and the overall draft results. .
My MO in a number of startups is not exactly popular, and I have been criticized here once or twice for going too extreme in drafting young or drafting college players (in devy leagues). Well, despite the high stakes (or the way I look at it, especially because of the high stakes) and after lots of planning and agonizing deliberation, I went the extreme route again, this time by acquiring 6 2011 1st round draft picks (inclusive of my own) in the startup draft (actually, at one point, I owned 8 1sts).
I wanted to discuss this strategy here since although it is not new, you don’t see it too often, and it can be easy to muck up. With the potential first place annual prize (starting Year 2 in my case) at over $7,000, I believe that the strategy, if implemented right, can be hugely successful and profitable (in this case, unlike the profit in any other dynasty league).
The general idea (common to many other strategies) is to play for the future rather than the current year. In my particular strategy, I am playing to dominate starting in Year 2 (not simply be competitive). The risk of implementing any strategy that foregoes the present for the future is that you may get stuck playing for the future for years and years. Obviously, at $1,250 per year, this could potentially get ridiculously expensive, so it is important that dominance is achieved by Year 2. In order to dominate that soon, I would need to amass a ridiculous amount of value by 2011, and the 6 1sts obviously are a big part of that value. That value then would be traded as needed to bring in quality vets to strengthen the team.
About those picks, those acquired early in the draft were essentially random other than knowing the first player or two of a team (although even knowing the first two players can be good information in determining if a pick has potential to be a good one). As the draft got into round 6, it became much easier to project out each team’s performance, and it became clear to me which picks were solid and which not so solid (which is why I ended up dumping 2 of the 8 picks – essentially for Demaryius Thomas). Accordingly, the remaining 6 I own are close to being hand picked, and I believe at least 4 and more likely 5 of the picks will be from non-playoff teams (i.e., 1.1-1.6). I also believe that I likely own picks 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 among the bunch (one of which is my own pick which was the easiest of all to project). In formulating the plan, I assumed the 6 picks would net me the equivalent of the 1.1, 1.2 and 1.3 in next year’s draft (by consolidation of picks or otherwise). Using this year’s startup as a guide, that would be the equivalent of having an additional 1st, 2nd and 3rd round startup pick, a huge advantage assuming the pieces I acquire in this year’s startup are not too watered down as a result. A key piece of the plan is being able to trade down in the draft to acquire the picks, while still being able to acquire comparable “dynasty” talent at the traded down spot and sacrificing only “win now” talent (e.g., losing out on a Frank Gore (win now) for Jon Stewart instead (comparable dynasty talent taken at the lower draft slot). That’s the idea at least.
At a $1,250 annual buy in, I can see why this strategy may seem like lunacy to some and it has generated that kind of sentiment and skepticism on the FFPC message boards where it is discussed at length. The way I see it, the startup draft is the only shot you have to pull this off in a league like this (that is, to spend just one year building and thereafter dominate with the ability to keep it going indefinitely due to the resources amassed in Year 1). It is the one time you have the ability to hand pick the players that best suit this strategy and that help to minimize the risk in implementing it.
It is difficult to see from what I drafted what the team might look like starting in Year 2. For comparison purposes, the team I recently drafted (in 2009) that most similarly compares was in a $250 league (which was then considered “high stakes”). There, my team was bad in year 1 to put it kindly (ended up being the 1.03), but I did also hold 6 2010 1sts (a number of which were also hand picked). The lineup in that league going into year 2 (WCOFF rules and lineups) is now:
Favre/Ryan/Henne
Benson/Scott, Wells/Hightower
AJ, Roddy, Marshall, Austin – Sidney Rice on the bench
Dallas Clark (Olsen and Gresham on the bench)
Very strong (and in my mind, the clear #1 contender in 2011 – Year 2) and should remain that way for years, a team well worth the wait of 1 year. I think this FFPC team will be even better based on the pieces in place today.
Anyway, here is my team in order of where players were drafted (starting from the 12 hole). I’ll let the Shark Pool judge (draft slot in parenthesis). I’ve presented it this way (rather than in lineup form) since it’s the collective value of the players I really care about, not how my starting lineup stacks up in 2010 (and it stacks up very poorly). Rules: FFPC main event lineup and scoring (QB/2RB/2WR/1TE/2 Flex, PPR with TEs getting 1.5 PPR).
RB Jon Stewart (2.10)
RB Rashard Mendenhall (3.04)
WR Vincent Jackson (4.08)
RB CJ Spiller (4.11)
WR Dwayne Bowe (6.01)
WR Demaryius Thomas (7.11)
WR Kenny Britt (7.12)
WR Braylon Edwards (11.05)
TE Jared Cook (13.02)
WR Lee Evans (14.01)
WR Donnie Avery (14.09)
DEF Vikings (15.12)
DEF Steelers (16.01)
QB David Garrard (17.12)
TE Rob Gronkowski (18.01)
TE Todd Heap (19.12)
WR Mardy Gilyard (20.01)
QB Tim Tebow (20.02)
RB Rashad Jennings (20.11)
and, like I said, 6 2011 1st round picks.
Obviously, unless I hit an early home run with Jared Cook in 2011 (and I just might), I will be looking to trade for a productive TE in 2011. QB is an obvious target as well. One interesting rule is that we have to cut down to 16 (including K and Def) after the NFL Superbowl, so guys like Garrard probably won’t even make the team next year. My contention is that with the vast resources I will have with the team above plus 6 1st round picks, I will be able to take care of those needs and a whole lot more.
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I had balance, and you came along, dangled a player you knew I could not refuse, and now that balance is gone. You forget Demaryius being on that team, but in any case, that was not one of my best efforts, thats for sure (auctions can be tough). I don’t really see that team being competitive at all in 2010 so maybe that RB will be an Ingram or Ryan Williams after all, particularly in a 1RB league where RBs might fall a bit in the draft where they normally would not otherwise. Or, maybe my pick combined with your 1st can net me a nice RB. Not sure, but that league is going to be fun for sure trying to get myself out of the hole I dug in getting Fitz, Calvin and S.Rice on the same team. If it looks like I can make a run this year, somehow I don’t see Ricky Williams being all that expensive come trade deadline time. Regarding teams having obvious needs and how that affects trading partners, I am not finding at all in any of my leagues where owners that also have a need (not as glaring) will severely turn the screws on another player simply because their need is greater. I usually find that market value ends up controlling. With trades and trading partners normally being limited in leagues anyway, it is a huge gamble for teams to shun away a potential trading partner and an opportunity to better your team simply because the other player has a huge need in an area or two (in any case, I do intend to offer good deals with the extra talent I think I will have). This could be a painful lesson if I am wrong. My thought on going extreme in this case was not to prove a point, because I would much rather prove the point of having the best team, not that a particular strategy would work. But, when you go the route I did (and that is to obtain all those picks at the expense of the present), you really have to go all out and leave no value wasted in order to minimize the risk in this strategy imo. I would be afraid to go half way or even three-quarters of the way. That said, I did show some restraint in that I already had 8 1sts at one point and was seriously thinking about going for 9! 
I do like going extreme in lower stakes leagues just to try stuff out at times, but I assure you, at $1,250 (or even at the $250 last year), I’m doing it for the money.
