[DYNASTY] Top 50 WR Rankings (1 Viewer)

[EBF]

I decided to put together some dynasty rankings before the season begins. A quick note before the list:

Far and away the hardest part of making dynasty rankings is weighing youth vs. reliability. A player's dynasty value depends largely on the context of your team. For example, Randy Moss and Anquan Boldin are worth a lot more to a contender than Demaryius Thomas and Hakeem Nicks, but Nicks and Thomas are worth a lot more to a rebuilding team than Moss and Boldin. Team context should be a major factor in all of your dynasty personnel decisions, but for the purpose of this list I tried to find an objective value. I tried to ask myself, "Would I trade this player for any one of the players ranked above him?"

GREEN indicates a player who is ranked at least 10 spots higher than in the current FBG staff list.

RED indicates a player who is ranked at least 10 spots lower than in the current FBG staff list.

1. Larry Fitzgerald - Even with a suspect QB situation, Fitz is still Fitz.

2. Andre Johnson - My top redraft and "win now" WR for 2010. Downside is that he's approaching the dreaded 30.

3. Brandon Marshall - The only WR with a better youth/production combination is Larry Fitzgerald.

4. Calvin Johnson - Elite deep threat with suspect possession WR skills. No excuses if he has another mediocre year.

5. Michael Crabtree - After a Fitz-like college career, had a very Fitz-like rookie season. Lacks flashy skills, but gets it done.

6. Dez Bryant - Elite physical talent and football ability should make him one of the league's best. Buzz is already building.

7. Greg Jennings - Not as talented as some listed below him, but benefits from situational stability.

8. Roddy White - Reliable WR1 with several years of his prime left.

9. Marques Colston - Similar to White and Jennings: modest ceiling with a high floor. Health has been a minor concern.

10. Vincent Jackson - On talent alone you can make a case for him in the 4-7 range, but the production isn't quite there.

11. Miles Austin - Looked like a monster in 2009 and could be poised for another huge year. Second best WR on his own team though?

12. Sidney Rice - In the same boat as Austin. I like what he did in 2009. I want to see him do it again before he makes the top 10.

13. DeSean Jackson - Great player, but low reception numbers and lack of size makes him reliant on big plays.

14. Santonio Holmes - Top 10 in receiving yards last season. Excessively downgraded by most due to offseason troubles.

15. Percy Harvin - Excellent talent with no glaring weaknesses. How high is his ceiling? May be a career WR2 for FF purposes.

16. Mike Sims-Walker - Solid player with all the traits of a quality NFL WR1.

17. Reggie Wayne - A great redraft pick. His dynasty value hinges on his longevity, which is difficult to predict.

18. Randy Moss - Another aging superstar with a limited shelf life.

19. Anquan Boldin - Sensing a theme?

20. Steve Smith (CAR) - Great player who has been the victim of circumstance. Which excuse will we make for him this year?

21. Chad Ochocinco - Basically the same exact guy as Reggie Wayne despite the usual disparity in their rankings.

22. Hakeem Nicks - Tempted to rank him higher, as this could be the year when he emerges as a reliable NFL WR1.

23. Demaryius Thomas - Never should've been picked before Dez, but is definitely a first round talent with WR1 ability.

24. Pierre Garcon - Size/athleticism combination sets him apart from the other young Colts receivers. Still needs to prove it.

25. Steve Smith (NYG) - I see his stats dipping next season, but he could be the next Donald Driver/Derrick Mason type.

26. Wes Welker - Decent talent whose production has been grossly inflated by a friendly system.

27. Jerricho Cotchery - He is what he is. Reliable playmaking ability should keep him in the lineup despite lack of flashy skills.

28. Dwayne Bowe - Prematurely anointed as the next big star, Bowe was mediocre in 2009. This is a make-or-break year for him.

29. Santana Moss - Steve Smith's less-hyped twin could be in for a 2010 renaissance. He's on the wrong side of 30 though.

30. Lee Evans - Still stuck in the abyss known as the Buffalo, but also still a talented player capable of 1000+ yards in any given season.

31. Eddie Royal - I'm still a believer in his long term talent even though his redraft outlook is spotty at best.

32. Jeremy Maclin - The hype machine is already at work. Is he the next Ochocinco or the next Lelie? Probably in the middle.

33. Kenny Britt - Another young player with a good opportunity to excel.

34. Mike Wallace - Elite speed. Solid rookie year. Wide open starting opportunity. There's lots to like, but I'm still not buying.

35. Golden Tate - Opportunity and pedigree make him worth a look in this range.

36. Mike Williams - Boom-or-bust rookie whose high ceiling justifies overdrafting him.

37. Andre Roberts - Eddie Royal clone. My pick for the long term WR2 job opposite Fitzgerald.

38. Anthony Gonzalez - Showed a lot of promise before injury derailed him. Could be a sneaky buy low as Indy's future WR2.

39. Devin Hester - Will this be the year he finally breaks out as a WR? Maybe. Maybe not.

40. Arrelious Benn - Has the opportunity and draft pedigree to pay off. Not my favorite player though.

41. Devin Thomas - One more year before I officially write him off.

42. Braylon Edwards - Is he another Roy Williams circling the drain? Has some physical talent, but simply isn't a natural receiver.

43. Robert Meachem - Perhaps a bit low, but he's still more hype than results. Saints WRs always look decent with Brees throwing.

44. Brandon Tate - Excellent sleeper pick with compelling talent.

45. Brandon LaFell - Like Massaquoi last year, he has undeniable NFL caliber physical tools despite his inconsistency.

46. Darrius Heyward-Bey - Looked totally lost as a rookie. Still offers some long term potential.

47. Hines Ward - Strictly a short term option. Ben's absence should hurt his early season numbers.

48. TJ Houshmandzadeh - Ochocinco's beneficiary is on his last legs.

49. Devin Aromashodu - Longshot with no track record. Worth a gamble because of upside and situation. You never know...

50. Steve Breaston - Decent player. I think Roberts will eventually supplant him. If not, he could have some value.

JUST MISSED:

Antonio Bryant - Probably belongs on the list because he's more talented than 15-20 of the above guys. However, he's not young anymore, his QB has struggled in recent years, and he'll be battling all kinds of viable players for targets.

Donnie Avery - Very fast and explosive, but small, weak, and brittle. Poor man's DeSean Jackson who looks like he'll never be a reliable #1 target. Has the upside to generate some buzz though.

Chaz Schilens - Someone has to catch the ball in Oakland, right? :crickets:

Eric Decker - Not the flashiest athlete, but has many qualities of a good NFL WR2 and could be the perfect foil to Thomas.

Josh Morgan - A good NFL player with dubious FF prospects. He's big, athletic, and still pretty young. A worthy throw-in or late round candidate because I actually think he might have a decent future.

James Jones - Boldin/Cotchery type who could finally be due for a breakout if Driver falters.

Jordy Nelson - Quintessential WR2 type who lacks special qualities. Will he beat out Jones for playing time?

Johnny Knox - Fast and coordinated with a very slight frame. Could be a perfect fit for Martz's system.

Early Doucet - Young with a decent pedigree. Has more size than Roberts and Breaston, but lacks their burst and speed.

Jacoby Jones - Not yet buying him as anything more than a return man with the occasional big play at WR.

Mohamed Massaquoi - Poor man's Roddy White seemingly has little chance of becoming a reliable #1 target.

 

[EBF]

One additional comment:

Things really break down after the top 30-35 players. Beyond that point you're basically looking at a grab bag of unproven young players with upside and ancient veterans on their last legs. So just because Anthony Gonzalez made the list at #38 and Donnie Avery is outside the top 50 doesn't mean I think there's a huge disparity in their value. The 30+ range is mostly a matter of personal preference and picking your favorite longshots.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Good list EBF. Thanks for publishing.

26. Wes Welker - Decent talent whose production has been grossly inflated by a friendly system.

This is interesting because I see no reason to believe he won't be a Patriot for the next few years. As such, does the "inflated system" caveat really matter? We regularly increase our value perception of RBs that are on running teams. Why is it out of line to increase our value perception of WRs that are on passing teams?

 

[EBF]

Good list EBF. Thanks for publishing.

26. Wes Welker - Decent talent whose production has been grossly inflated by a friendly system.

This is interesting because I see no reason to believe he won't be a Patriot for the next few years. As such, does the "inflated system" caveat really matter? We regularly increase our value perception of RBs that are on running teams. Why is it out of line to increase our value perception of WRs that are on passing teams?

A few things that worry me about Welker: - I think the Patriots in general are an overrated franchise. Yes, they were great in the last decade, but it's 2010 and I think they might struggle to finish in the top two of the division, let alone win it. - I think Welker benefits from the extra attention that Randy Moss receives from defenses. Moss is 33 with one year left on his deal. Even though he's a great player and a unique talent, it's only a matter of time until he hits the wall or skips town. At that point, I think Welker's production will suffer. - On that note, there's a remote, but non-zero probability that Brady will not be a Patriot next season. Welker did great with Cassel at the helm so perhaps his production wouldn't suffer, but a transition to a new QB would have to be considered a lateral move at best given that Brady is HOF caliber. - Welker is recovering from a serious knee injury. Even though the reports on his health have been very encouraging, you still never quite know what you're going to get with someone coming off a major surgery. - Welker is 29 years old. While not ancient by current standards, he's still approaching the age where dynasty owners will start to downgrade his trade value. This isn't a huge problem if you acquire him with the intention of keeping him until he breaks down/retires, but it's a factor that will limit your flexibility if you're forced to rebuild. I find that it's very difficult to get good trade value for 30+ year old players in dynasty leagues.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Guys like cotchery, santana and evans over maclin puzzles me, especially since you appear to overvalue youth in the top 10

 

[Abraham]

- I think the Patriots in general are an overrated franchise. Yes, they were great in the last decade, but it's 2010 and I think they might struggle to finish in the top two of the division, let alone win it.

Disagree. Or rather, I don't think it matters for fantasy purposes. They will win/lose on the back of Brady (and thus Brady's pass catchers).

- I think Welker benefits from the extra attention that Randy Moss receives from defenses. Moss is 33 with one year left on his deal. Even though he's a great player and a unique talent, it's only a matter of time until he hits the wall or skips town. At that point, I think Welker's production will suffer.

Fair point.

- Welker is recovering from a serious knee injury. Even though the reports on his health have been very encouraging, you still never quite know what you're going to get with someone coming off a major surgery

. Fair point. I'm not sure he should be much higher then where you have him til we see what he can do. But if he gets "Back" quickly then the rating will look too low in a hurry..

 

[EBF]

Guys like cotchery, santana and evans over maclin puzzles me, especially since you appear to overvalue youth in the top 10

Youth is only valuable when coupled with elite talent. I'm convinced that Crabtree and Bryant are elite talents.I'm not yet convinced about Maclin.

 

[Abraham]

Guys like cotchery, santana and evans over maclin puzzles me, especially since you appear to overvalue youth in the top 10

Youth is only valuable when coupled with elite talent. I'm convinced that Crabtree and Bryant are elite talents.I'm not yet convinced about Maclin.

Agreed. And I'm not convinced that even if Maclin is an elite talent that he'll get enough of the deep looks from Jackson. ANd I'm not convinced that even if that happens the Eagles have the right QB to get him the ball.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Guys like cotchery, santana and evans over maclin puzzles me, especially since you appear to overvalue youth in the top 10

Youth is only valuable when coupled with elite talent. I'm convinced that Crabtree and Bryant are elite talents.I'm not yet convinced about Maclin.

Elite or not, he's worth a lot more than cotchery who's proven he's not an elite talent. Mid first round pick on a team that loves to throw the ball. Crabtree didn't show me any more than maclin did last year.

 

[Weiner Dog]

I don't place too much weight onto most people's rankings. EBF is an exception.

Thanks for your thoughts, EBF.

 

[Football Jones]

Julian Edelman has to belong in any conversation about future top-notch WRs (especially in PPR leagues). What he did last season after spending his college career as a QB was nothing short of amazing.

His excellent natural aptitude/ability as a WR/athlete stick out like a sore thumb (in a good way).

 

[Weiner Dog]

I don't place too much weight onto most people's rankings. EBF is an exception.Thanks for your thoughts, EBF.

My quick thoughts...I like Dez Bryant, but ranking the (at-best) #3 receiver (behind Austin and Witten) on the Boys as the #6 dynasty WR just doesn't add up.I would trade Colston for Austin and D Jackson in a heartbeat. Heck, I would probably even deal Colston for VJax, Rice and even Wayne. Three knee surgeries cannot be forgotten in a dynasty league.Austin is too low at #11. His ability to run after the catch easily guarantees 1000+/yard seasons in the foreseeable future.S Holmes at #14 is just too high given his situation (NYJets D, rushing offense, drug suspension).

 

[HenryMuto]

Cotchery just went with the 239th and nearly final pick (out of 240) of a dynasty draft I just completed.

How he is 27 makes me wonder what your thinking.

Eddie Royal went in the 14th round.

Mike Wallace below those guys is just silly to me.

Your telling me you rather have Cotchery over Mike Wallace for this year and for the future ?

Give me Wallace in both cases.

 

[Abraham]

I like Dez Bryant, but ranking the (at-best) #3 receiver (behind Austin and Witten) on the Boys as the #6 dynasty WR just doesn't add up

Bryant will be the number one option in the offense by Halloween 2011. And I think he'll lead the team in receiving touchdowns this season.

 

[EBF]

Guys like cotchery, santana and evans over maclin puzzles me, especially since you appear to overvalue youth in the top 10

Youth is only valuable when coupled with elite talent. I'm convinced that Crabtree and Bryant are elite talents.I'm not yet convinced about Maclin.

Elite or not, he's worth a lot more than cotchery who's proven he's not an elite talent. Mid first round pick on a team that loves to throw the ball. Crabtree didn't show me any more than maclin did last year.

Maclin has more trade value than Cotchery, but whether or not he has more actual value remains to be seen. Cotchery has finished among the top 30 WRs in PPG each of the past three seasons. He doesn't offer a lot of upside, but he can be a useful part of a winning team. Maclin is not a known quantity yet. He could be great or he could be just another overrated prospect. If you feel like he's in the same league as Crabtree/Bryant then by all means value him accordingly.

 

[identikit]

26. Wes Welker - Decent talent whose production has been grossly inflated by a friendly system.

Who cares if it's a friendly system? It works well for the NFL, it works well for FF. And I don't see it ending any time soon, with or without Brady/Moss.

31. Eddie Royal - I'm still a believer in his long term talent even though his redraft outlook is spotty at best.

If anyone played in a friendly system (albeit for only a year), it was Royal. I know you were his biggest fan. Still are, looks like.

34. Mike Wallace - Elite speed. Solid rookie year. Wide open starting opportunity. There's lots to like, but I'm still not buying.

All I got for this one, ranking and comments included.

The above 3 jumped right off the page.Oh, and no Mike Thomas; not even on the 'just missed' list.

Always an interesting read, great for discussion, and useful for determining trade values.

 

[EBF]

I don't place too much weight onto most people's rankings. EBF is an exception.Thanks for your thoughts, EBF.

My quick thoughts...I like Dez Bryant, but ranking the (at-best) #3 receiver (behind Austin and Witten) on the Boys as the #6 dynasty WR just doesn't add up.

I don't think it's safe to assume that he's #3. Most people thought Randy Moss was #3 behind Cris Carter and Jake Reed when he was a rookie, but he ended up becoming the #1 target on the team within a very short time frame. I think Bryant is far too talented to play second fiddle. At worst he should be viewed as #1C.

I would trade Colston for Austin and D Jackson in a heartbeat. Heck, I would probably even deal Colston for VJax, Rice and even Wayne. Three knee surgeries cannot be forgotten in a dynasty league.

Health is definitely a concern for Colston. On the other hand, he's 27 years old with 1000+ yards and 70+ receptions three out of the last four years. It's hard not to like that combination for dynasty purposes.

Austin is too low at #11. His ability to run after the catch easily guarantees 1000+/yard seasons in the foreseeable future.

I don't have a problem with anyone ranking Austin 4-5 spots higher. I think the value in that range is pretty similar.

S Holmes at #14 is just too high given his situation (NYJets D, rushing offense, drug suspension).

I disagree. Look at all the turmoil surrounding Vincent Jackson. Despite all of the negative factors, very few people are massively downgrading him in their rankings.Holmes is a borderline elite talent in the prime of his career. No one on the Jets has ever said that they're a run-first team. In fact, the moves to acquire Sanchez, Edwards, Holmes, and their attempt at TO strongly suggest that they want to become a balanced team that can also throw the ball (Ryan has even said that he envisions QB eventually becoming a strength of the offense). Holmes is their best WR and he should excel. He went from being one of the most trendy dynasty players I own (people were always bugging me about acquiring him) to borderline untouchable almost overnight. I think it's a kneejerk reaction to his tumultuous offseason. He's still a big time player.

 

[EBF]

26. Wes Welker - Decent talent whose production has been grossly inflated by a friendly system.

Who cares if it's a friendly system? It works well for the NFL, it works well for FF. And I don't see it ending any time soon, with or without Brady/Moss.

31. Eddie Royal - I'm still a believer in his long term talent even though his redraft outlook is spotty at best.

If anyone played in a friendly system (albeit for only a year), it was Royal. I know you were his biggest fan. Still are, looks like.

34. Mike Wallace - Elite speed. Solid rookie year. Wide open starting opportunity. There's lots to like, but I'm still not buying.

All I got for this one, ranking and comments included.

The above 3 jumped right off the page.Oh, and no Mike Thomas; not even on the 'just missed' list.

Always an interesting read, great for discussion, and useful for determining trade values.

I commented on Welker above.

Re: Royal, I might have him 5-10 spots too high, but I think he's a legitimate talent. Josh McDaniels has been systematically eliminating all of the players who thrived under Shanahan. Cutler, Marshall, and Scheffler have been sent packing. Royal has been marginalized. I honestly believe that this might be an egomania thing where McDaniels can't stand to see players who aren't "his guys" succeeding. He seems hellbent on doing things his way and his way only.

I think Royal is a prime candidate to excel if he finds himself in a situation with expanded opportunities. Talent doesn't disappear overnight. I saw guys like Terry Glenn and Joey Galloway resurrect their careers after lengthy value slumps. I think Royal can do the same. If you think he was the product of a system, fine. I don't. He was a top 50 draft pick and he has 4.3 speed with elite overall combine numbers. He's a very gifted athlete.

Re: Wallace, you're sold on him and I'm not. It's as simple as that. To me he's just another "maybe" like Meachem, Maclin, and Avery. These guys are pretty common. I only rank them highly if I have a strong feeling that they're the real deal. I don't have that feeling about Wallace, so he'll have to prove it to me before I move him up much higher.

 

[MongoL3]

I think if maclin takes another step this year he might make it off your "maybe" list. I live in Big 12 country and the guy was an absolute beast in college. Graded out as a first round talent. Philly traded up to get him in rd1 and Reid doesnt normally trade up for wr's. I thought he had a very good rookie season.

 

[EBF]

I think if maclin takes another step this year he might make it off your "maybe" list. I live in Big 12 country and the guy was an absolute beast in college. Graded out as a first round talent. Philly traded up to get him in rd1 and Reid doesnt normally trade up for wr's. I thought he had a very good rookie season.

How much higher do you really think he should be ranked? 32nd overall is fairly high. Almost all of the guys above him:A.) Have been successful in the NFL.and/orB.) Are elite prospects in their own right.I don't hate Maclin. I think he's a good prospect with a chance to become a reliable starter. He's not a lock though. I've been playing this game long enough to see people jump the gun with every young player who shows any signs of life (Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards, Rod Gardner, Lee Evans, Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, etc). I try to retain a little skepticism in cases where I'm not 100% convinced.

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

How do you justify having 3 Jets WRs in the top 50?

 

[Fear & Loathing]

I don't place too much weight onto most people's rankings. EBF is an exception.Thanks for your thoughts, EBF.

My quick thoughts...I like Dez Bryant, but ranking the (at-best) #3 receiver (behind Austin and Witten) on the Boys as the #6 dynasty WR just doesn't add up.

I have Bryant at No. 6 too.

 

[EBF]

How do you justify having 3 Jets WRs in the top 50?

IIRC Edwards and Holmes only have one year left on their deals. It seems unlikely that Cotchery/Holmes/Edwards will all be members of the Jets come opening day 2011. I don't like Edwards, but I think he's good enough to sign elsewhere and start.

 

[Lash]

nice list, compares similarly to my own other than I have Miles at #3 overall ... he is an uberstud held back by his coaches because of his small school/UDFA/low salary pedigree

very rarely on the zero pedigree types will a coaching staff pull a Colston out of their hat and let them have an equal shot of playing time - most in Austin's situation just have to bide their time even when clearly more talented than the Craytons RoyDubs and Hurds of the world

once they unleashed the beast though he built momentum like an avalanche

and that is why i think people in FF still rank him too low, they say to themselves "his pedigree has to reveal SOME flaws surely doesnt it?" instead of just trusting their eyes ... "he's a monster" as you put it

i also have SHolmes way higher than the experts and I have already gave the RIPs to Devin Thomas and Eddie Royal (may be 5 years before he has a QB)

 

[Lash]

oh and I had Meachem a couple tiers higher too

 

[gheemony]

.

 

[FUBAR]

I think if maclin takes another step this year he might make it off your "maybe" list. I live in Big 12 country and the guy was an absolute beast in college. Graded out as a first round talent. Philly traded up to get him in rd1 and Reid doesnt normally trade up for wr's. I thought he had a very good rookie season.

How much higher do you really think he should be ranked? 32nd overall is fairly high. Almost all of the guys above him:A.) Have been successful in the NFL.and/orB.) Are elite prospects in their own right.I don't hate Maclin. I think he's a good prospect with a chance to become a reliable starter. He's not a lock though. I've been playing this game long enough to see people jump the gun with every young player who shows any signs of life (Roy Williams, Braylon Edwards, Rod Gardner, Lee Evans, Donte Stallworth, Ashley Lelie, etc). I try to retain a little skepticism in cases where I'm not 100% convinced.

You have Thomas at 23. No good reason for him to be above Maclin. Being a Jayhawk made me dislike and appreciate Maclin. The guy is more likely to be top 10 than in the 30s, but it might not be this year.

 

[FUBAR]

When reviewing a person's list, I simply ask if there's zero chance I'd consider trading a guy he ranks lower for one he has higher, no matter what my team's makeup. Not too many stand out here, but these do:

14. Santonio Holmes - Top 10 in receiving yards last season. Excessively downgraded by most due to offseason troubles. Falls to somewhere in the low 20s IMO.

23. Demaryius Thomas - Never should've been picked before Dez, but is definitely a first round talent with WR1 ability. Falls to somewhere in the mid 30s IMO.

26. Wes Welker - Decent talent whose production has been grossly inflated by a friendly system. Even with injury, he's in my teens or higher

32. Jeremy Maclin - The hype machine is already at work. Is he the next Ochocinco or the next Lelie? Probably in the middle. I don't know if Ocho is the best comparison but he's about 12-17 spots above this

There's pretty much zero chance I'd trade Maclin for Holmes. Before the issues I might have, so maybe it's time to buy low on Holmes but I don't like the situation or what he's shown his character to be. I agree with your point that from around 25-50+ we're ranking mostly on guesses and personal experience, as in who you've seen more and there isn't much difference. Could pretty much justify any ranking in that group.

 

[mikel2014]

Hey EBF, I'm curious about your ranking of Andre Roberts. I was able to pick him up in two of my dynasty leagues, so seeing him that high is nice albeit surprising. What makes you think he'll be the long term #2 in Arizona?

 

[squistion]

Andre Roberts at #37 and Johnny Knox below #50. I can't see a Knox owner in any league doing a straight up trade for Roberts at this time (unless that owner was you). Yes, Knox has a slight build and I have hitched a ride on the Martz/Knox hype train, but still these two listings are way off IMO.

Also, the oft-injured Anthony Gonzalez at #38 but Austin Collie is not listed at all. Another one I can't see, but not surprising since you have never thought much of Collie. Even if Collie is just a slot receiver I like his long term value with Peyton throwing to him more than the fragile Gonzalez.

 

[EBF]

You have Thomas at 23. No good reason for him to be above Maclin. Being a Jayhawk made me dislike and appreciate Maclin. The guy is more likely to be top 10 than in the 30s, but it might not be this year.

These are personal rankings and I prefer Thomas to Maclin. The loud support for Maclin has me re-thinking his position on my list, but Thomas is a first round talent in his own right with a superior set of physical tools. I think he's one of the best picks once the proven elite talents are off the board. Having said that, I'm receptive to the idea that Maclin should be up there with him and Nicks.

 

[EBF]

When reviewing a person's list, I simply ask if there's zero chance I'd consider trading a guy he ranks lower for one he has higher, no matter what my team's makeup. Not too many stand out here, but these do:

14. Santonio Holmes - Top 10 in receiving yards last season. Excessively downgraded by most due to offseason troubles. Falls to somewhere in the low 20s IMO.

23. Demaryius Thomas - Never should've been picked before Dez, but is definitely a first round talent with WR1 ability. Falls to somewhere in the mid 30s IMO.

26. Wes Welker - Decent talent whose production has been grossly inflated by a friendly system. Even with injury, he's in my teens or higher

32. Jeremy Maclin - The hype machine is already at work. Is he the next Ochocinco or the next Lelie? Probably in the middle. I don't know if Ocho is the best comparison but he's about 12-17 spots above this

There's pretty much zero chance I'd trade Maclin for Holmes. Before the issues I might have, so maybe it's time to buy low on Holmes but I don't like the situation or what he's shown his character to be. I agree with your point that from around 25-50+ we're ranking mostly on guesses and personal experience, as in who you've seen more and there isn't much difference. Could pretty much justify any ranking in that group.

Holmes - I would arue that Holmes is already what Maclin can only aspire to become: a consistent starting receiver capable of 1200+ yards in any given season. Does he have character risk? Sure, but there are no locks outside the top 5-10 and his youth/talent combination is as good as anyone outside the accepted elite. The situation in NYJ doesn't worry me because I think Sanchez is going to be good. Thomas - I don't know why people are so down on him. He's a physical specimen with a first round pedigree and the production to back it up. He also has a clear path to the long term WR1 role in Denver. He's this year's version of last year's Maclin/Nicks/Britt (and look at how excited people are about them).

Welker - Already addressed this.

Maclin - 12-17 spots higher would make him a top 15-20 guy. That's quite high for a player with 773 career receiving yards. One of the most common mistakes in FF is to look at a young player's performance and assume that he's going to take the next step forward. I'm perfectly willing to rank players high when their results don't yet justify it (see: Dez, Crabtree), but I try to only do that when I think the player is a near 100% lock. I don't have that kind of faith in Maclin. To me he's just another generic first round WR with potential. Sometimes these guys become Reggie Wayne and Santana Moss. Sometimes they become Ashley Lelie and Donte Stallworth. My ranking of Maclin accounts for the possibility that he won't become a star.

 

[EBF]

Hey EBF, I'm curious about your ranking of Andre Roberts. I was able to pick him up in two of my dynasty leagues, so seeing him that high is nice albeit surprising. What makes you think he'll be the long term #2 in Arizona?

It's just a gut call based on what I've seen from him. His upside might be limited because he's a bit small and he lacks truly elite speed (although he's in the 4.4 range), but I really like his mobility and receiving ability. He has fluid route running skills that remind me of Eddie Royal and Santonio Holmes. With time to develop, I can see him becoming the type of solid starting WR who excels despite lacking obvious standouts physical traits. Bear in mind that he was drafted higher than Breaston and only 7 spots lower than Doucet. Saying that he's the second best WR on the Cardinals might seem like a controversial statement right now, but it's not exactly lunacy given the NFL's evaluation of his potential. That's not to mention the small school factor, which typically suppresses a player's draft stock. Had he attended a visible program like Michigan or LSU, he might have been a 2nd round pick.

Barring a spectacular training camp, Roberts will handle punt return duties and ride the bench on offense this season, but I think he's a good player who could emerge as a starter down the road.

Here's a choppy, but comprehensive highlight reel if you haven't seen it yet:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=An5rP_BiEdg

 

[EBF]

Andre Roberts at #37 and Johnny Knox below #50. I can't see a Knox owner in any league doing a straight up trade for Roberts at this time (unless that owner was you). Yes, Knox has a slight build and I have hitched a ride on the Martz/Knox hype train, but still these two listings are way off IMO.

As I mentioned, once you get outside the top 30 things start to break down and ranking players is mostly a matter of picking your favorite unproven prospects with potential. I like Roberts more than Knox, so he's higher on my list. In a redraft league I would definitely give the edge to Knox.

Also, the oft-injured Anthony Gonzalez at #38 but Austin Collie is not listed at all. Another one I can't see, but not surprising since you have never thought much of Collie. Even if Collie is just a slot receiver I like his long term value with Peyton throwing to him more than the fragile Gonzalez.

I don't think it's that crazy. In Gonzalez you have a former first round pick who has played well when healthy. Collie is a decent player, but I don't think he's quite as gifted physically and I think his 2009 numbers are close to his ceiling.

 

[Black&Gold]

Another vote for Maclin being way too low. He's top 20 for sure. No way I deal Maclin for Cotchery.

 

[GECKO]

good discussion

 

[loose circuits]

I think you are missing the boat on Doucet. He's much more likely to emerge as the wr2 than Andre Roberts...

 

[FUBAR]

You have Thomas at 23. No good reason for him to be above Maclin. Being a Jayhawk made me dislike and appreciate Maclin. The guy is more likely to be top 10 than in the 30s, but it might not be this year.

These are personal rankings and I prefer Thomas to Maclin. The loud support for Maclin has me re-thinking his position on my list, but Thomas is a first round talent in his own right with a superior set of physical tools. I think he's one of the best picks once the proven elite talents are off the board. Having said that, I'm receptive to the idea that Maclin should be up there with him and Nicks.

I guess, but those superior tools aren't that superior to many who have better all around game, including Maclin.

Maclin - 12-17 spots higher would make him a top 15-20 guy. That's quite high for a player with 773 career receiving yards. One of the most common mistakes in FF is to look at a young player's performance and assume that he's going to take the next step forward. I'm perfectly willing to rank players high when their results don't yet justify it (see: Dez, Crabtree), but I try to only do that when I think the player is a near 100% lock. I don't have that kind of faith in Maclin. To me he's just another generic first round WR with potential. Sometimes these guys become Reggie Wayne and Santana Moss. Sometimes they become Ashley Lelie and Donte Stallworth. My ranking of Maclin accounts for the possibility that he won't become a star.

As opposed to a guy with zero career receiving yards? (btw, Maclin has 908) I don't fault your logic but it's inconsistent with Thomas at 23. Thomas is just another physically gifted WR, much more likely to bust than Maclin is. Obviously it's more complicated than looking at half a season and expecting that to be the floor, but if you just look at Maclin's last 9 games, which doesn't include his 142 yard performance against the Bucs or 146 against the Cowboys in the playoffs, the guy was pretty consistent with an average which would put him over 1,000 yards for a season. Also, he was asked to fill in as a return guy which may not mean much, but it's still impressive that he was this good as a WR while returning. More importantly, have you seen the kid play? I have, plenty although mostly in college, and the kid IMO is just behind Crabtree and Dez in the new wave of NFL WRs.

I freely admit you could be right, but I just don't see it as likely with Thomas or Mac.

 

[Mister CIA]

43. Robert Meachem - Perhaps a bit low, but he's still more hype than results. Saints WRs always look decent with Brees throwing.

I don't disagree so much with the ranking as I do the comment. I'd suggest that Meachem is more results than hype. Sunday evening arithmetic shows Meachem posted 35-559-7 in weeks 8-16 last season. He really grew as a football player last year - remember the takeaway fumble for a TD? Confidence was always the big question with Meachem in my eyes. Also, so long as Brees is guiding the Saints offense, Meachem is a reliable roundhouse punch amidst an array of body blows.

Lastly, I rarely handcuff WRs, but if I own Colston, Meachem is a must-have.

 

[fruity pebbles]

When reviewing a person's list, I simply ask if there's zero chance I'd consider trading a guy he ranks lower for one he has higher, no matter what my team's makeup. Not too many stand out here, but these do:

14. Santonio Holmes - Top 10 in receiving yards last season. Excessively downgraded by most due to offseason troubles. Falls to somewhere in the low 20s IMO.

23. Demaryius Thomas - Never should've been picked before Dez, but is definitely a first round talent with WR1 ability. Falls to somewhere in the mid 30s IMO.

26. Wes Welker - Decent talent whose production has been grossly inflated by a friendly system. Even with injury, he's in my teens or higher

32. Jeremy Maclin - The hype machine is already at work. Is he the next Ochocinco or the next Lelie? Probably in the middle. I don't know if Ocho is the best comparison but he's about 12-17 spots above this

There's pretty much zero chance I'd trade Maclin for Holmes. Before the issues I might have, so maybe it's time to buy low on Holmes but I don't like the situation or what he's shown his character to be. I agree with your point that from around 25-50+ we're ranking mostly on guesses and personal experience, as in who you've seen more and there isn't much difference. Could pretty much justify any ranking in that group.

Holmes - I would arue that Holmes is already what Maclin can only aspire to become: a consistent starting receiver capable of 1200+ yards in any given season. Does he have character risk? Sure, but there are no locks outside the top 5-10 and his youth/talent combination is as good as anyone outside the accepted elite. The situation in NYJ doesn't worry me because I think Sanchez is going to be good. Thomas - I don't know why people are so down on him. He's a physical specimen with a first round pedigree and the production to back it up. He also has a clear path to the long term WR1 role in Denver. He's this year's version of last year's Maclin/Nicks/Britt (and look at how excited people are about them).

Welker - Already addressed this.

Maclin - 12-17 spots higher would make him a top 15-20 guy. That's quite high for a player with 773 career receiving yards. One of the most common mistakes in FF is to look at a young player's performance and assume that he's going to take the next step forward. I'm perfectly willing to rank players high when their results don't yet justify it (see: Dez, Crabtree), but I try to only do that when I think the player is a near 100% lock. I don't have that kind of faith in Maclin. To me he's just another generic first round WR with potential. Sometimes these guys become Reggie Wayne and Santana Moss. Sometimes they become Ashley Lelie and Donte Stallworth. My ranking of Maclin accounts for the possibility that he won't become a star.

773 yards true but that's in essentially 11 games. Also in the playoffs maclin had 146 yards.

 

[gpthatsme]

Does anyone take issue with Fitz being #1 on this list? Just curious....

 

[dwyadog]

Does anyone take issue with Fitz being #1 on this list? Just curious....

and why is 30 dreaded for a wide receiver? Any indication that AJ couldnt be elite for another 3-4 years? Ive read a lot of discussion about the running back wall at 30 and some for wr but the way things are going in the league now, barring injury, do we see any of the top 5 wr's taking dips at 30 the way running backs do? Or is it just from a trade value perspective?

 

[alg]

Does anyone take issue with Fitz being #1 on this list? Just curious....

and why is 30 dreaded for a wide receiver? Any indication that AJ couldnt be elite for another 3-4 years? Ive read a lot of discussion about the running back wall at 30 and some for wr but the way things are going in the league now, barring injury, do we see any of the top 5 wr's taking dips at 30 the way running backs do? Or is it just from a trade value perspective?

Value in trade. 30 is important even for WRs. Someone like Smith-CAR lost a ton of trade value at 30, and not just because of injuries. In leagues I play in you could not trade Randy Moss for Nicks...last year! This year? forgetaboutit.Its one of the reasons I like EBF's rankings. They take into account real dynasty value, not just past value. Dropping Wayne to 17 is not the kind of thing I usually see here. And we should. Too many rankings still have him as a WR1.

If anything he is still making too many allowances for team value - the old "pursuit of the championship" thing. Done properly, a dynasty team should be built for the long haul. Anyone blowing up a roster to win a championship (or simply trading Maclin for Moss for the playoffs) is likely next year's loser, and a good candidate for replacement the next...because they won't like having to run a team that just plain sucks.

 

[PNRZ]

No love for Malcom Floyd? VJax looking certain to be traded? Floyd is 6'5 and averaged 17.2 yards a catch the last 2 years. Profile shows him at 4.4 40 speed, huge hands and incredible leaping ability. He's 28 so hasn't hit any worry marks there. There's no one on the depth chart behind him that I'd worry about taking looks away from him. His QB is another plus mark in his favor as Rivers is young and solid. Plays in a conference with weak defenses. Gates draws away the defense leaving him 1 on 1. I'm having a hard time keep him down the list.

 

[EBF]

43. Robert Meachem - Perhaps a bit low, but he's still more hype than results. Saints WRs always look decent with Brees throwing.

I don't disagree so much with the ranking as I do the comment. I'd suggest that Meachem is more results than hype. Sunday evening arithmetic shows Meachem posted 35-559-7 in weeks 8-16 last season. He really grew as a football player last year - remember the takeaway fumble for a TD? Confidence was always the big question with Meachem in my eyes. Also, so long as Brees is guiding the Saints offense, Meachem is a reliable roundhouse punch amidst an array of body blows.

Lastly, I rarely handcuff WRs, but if I own Colston, Meachem is a must-have.

On paper he's a decent breakout candidate. First round pedigree with a good size/speed ratio and steady improvement. His NFL career seems to be following the same trajectory as his college career. He was a top prospect coming out of high school, but it took him a few years to finally realize his elite potential for Tennessee. Maybe he can duplicate the feat for New Orleans.On the other hand, I feel like the Saints system is designed to make players look good. Lance Moore had a torrid stretch in that same offense and no one is touting him as the next big star. Devery Henderson has also become a productive player in that system. Meachem has a more promising background than those guys, but isn't it possible that he's just another ordinary talent benefiting from a QB who has been playing lights out lately? I think so. Part of that is because my own subjective opinion of Meachem has never been very high.

 

[Kree]

No love for Malcom Floyd? VJax looking certain to be traded? Floyd is 6'5 and averaged 17.2 yards a catch the last 2 years. Profile shows him at 4.4 40 speed, huge hands and incredible leaping ability. He's 28 so hasn't hit any worry marks there. There's no one on the depth chart behind him that I'd worry about taking looks away from him. His QB is another plus mark in his favor as Rivers is young and solid. Plays in a conference with weak defenses. Gates draws away the defense leaving him 1 on 1. I'm having a hard time keep him down the list.

He's 28 (29 before the season starts) and yet to do anything of note, even as a WR2 in a high powered offence, but that isn't a 'worry mark'? I don't mind the bloke, especially this year, but I don't think he is worth any special consideration in a dynasty context. Even if he has a good redraft year he probably goes back to being a number 2 when/if Vjax returns, or they draft a new WR. Naanee is a similar big guy who will 'threaten' for time, and Gates will be the number one target either way. I personally would put him up there but there are plenty of reasons to keep him down.

 

[EBF]

Does anyone take issue with Fitz being #1 on this list? Just curious....

and why is 30 dreaded for a wide receiver? Any indication that AJ couldnt be elite for another 3-4 years? Ive read a lot of discussion about the running back wall at 30 and some for wr but the way things are going in the league now, barring injury, do we see any of the top 5 wr's taking dips at 30 the way running backs do? Or is it just from a trade value perspective?

Value in trade. 30 is important even for WRs. Someone like Smith-CAR lost a ton of trade value at 30, and not just because of injuries. In leagues I play in you could not trade Randy Moss for Nicks...last year! This year? forgetaboutit.Its one of the reasons I like EBF's rankings. They take into account real dynasty value, not just past value. Dropping Wayne to 17 is not the kind of thing I usually see here. And we should. Too many rankings still have him as a WR1.

If anything he is still making too many allowances for team value - the old "pursuit of the championship" thing. Done properly, a dynasty team should be built for the long haul. Anyone blowing up a roster to win a championship (or simply trading Maclin for Moss for the playoffs) is likely next year's loser, and a good candidate for replacement the next...because they won't like having to run a team that just plain sucks.

This pretty much covers it. Dynasty trade values tend to strongly favor youth and potential. It's been my experience that you rarely get fair value for players who are nearing the perceived dropoff age. I tried to account for this in my rankings, although I think my list is still fairly moderate. You can take it even further and argue that guys like Nicks/Maclin/Thomas should be ranked ahead of Moss/Ochocinco/Smith. Purely in terms of trade value, you might have a very hard time trading one of the old guys for one of the young guys.

 

[EBF]

No love for Malcom Floyd? VJax looking certain to be traded? Floyd is 6'5 and averaged 17.2 yards a catch the last 2 years. Profile shows him at 4.4 40 speed, huge hands and incredible leaping ability. He's 28 so hasn't hit any worry marks there. There's no one on the depth chart behind him that I'd worry about taking looks away from him. His QB is another plus mark in his favor as Rivers is young and solid. Plays in a conference with weak defenses. Gates draws away the defense leaving him 1 on 1. I'm having a hard time keep him down the list.

I think he's a decent sleeper pick. I've said as much elsewhere.One of things you didn't mention is that the Chargers tendered him at the same level as V-Jax, meaning a team would have been forced to forfeit a 1st and 3rd round pick to sign him away. This suggests that the Chargers think Floyd is a very important part of their team. I always try to pay attention to little tea leaves like this. Floyd played pretty well last year and could definitely be a surprise 1000 yard guy this year. If you can get him cheap, get him.On the other hand, he's been in the league for years and barely made a dent. Even if he pans out, his window for peak value is pretty narrow because he's already quite old.

 

[renesauz]

When reviewing a person's list, I simply ask if there's zero chance I'd consider trading a guy he ranks lower for one he has higher, no matter what my team's makeup. Not too many stand out here, but these do:

14. Santonio Holmes - Top 10 in receiving yards last season. Excessively downgraded by most due to offseason troubles. Falls to somewhere in the low 20s IMO.

23. Demaryius Thomas - Never should've been picked before Dez, but is definitely a first round talent with WR1 ability. Falls to somewhere in the mid 30s IMO.

26. Wes Welker - Decent talent whose production has been grossly inflated by a friendly system. Even with injury, he's in my teens or higher

32. Jeremy Maclin - The hype machine is already at work. Is he the next Ochocinco or the next Lelie? Probably in the middle. I don't know if Ocho is the best comparison but he's about 12-17 spots above this

There's pretty much zero chance I'd trade Maclin for Holmes. Before the issues I might have, so maybe it's time to buy low on Holmes but I don't like the situation or what he's shown his character to be. I agree with your point that from around 25-50+ we're ranking mostly on guesses and personal experience, as in who you've seen more and there isn't much difference. Could pretty much justify any ranking in that group.

Holmes - I would arue that Holmes is already what Maclin can only aspire to become: a consistent starting receiver capable of 1200+ yards in any given season. Does he have character risk? Sure, but there are no locks outside the top 5-10 and his youth/talent combination is as good as anyone outside the accepted elite. The situation in NYJ doesn't worry me because I think Sanchez is going to be good. Thomas - I don't know why people are so down on him. He's a physical specimen with a first round pedigree and the production to back it up. He also has a clear path to the long term WR1 role in Denver. He's this year's version of last year's Maclin/Nicks/Britt (and look at how excited people are about them).

Welker - Already addressed this.

Maclin - 12-17 spots higher would make him a top 15-20 guy. That's quite high for a player with 773 career receiving yards. One of the most common mistakes in FF is to look at a young player's performance and assume that he's going to take the next step forward. I'm perfectly willing to rank players high when their results don't yet justify it (see: Dez, Crabtree), but I try to only do that when I think the player is a near 100% lock. I don't have that kind of faith in Maclin. To me he's just another generic first round WR with potential. Sometimes these guys become Reggie Wayne and Santana Moss. Sometimes they become Ashley Lelie and Donte Stallworth. My ranking of Maclin accounts for the possibility that he won't become a star.

While I agree with your logic, I think this is a good example of a time where you've neglected some easy facts with Maclin. Philly's system is notoriously complicated, and rookies rarely make ANY noise in it. IN that regard, Maclin's rookie numbers are more impressive then another "unproven" young guy from Denver you're so high on. If you wait for him to "prove" himself any more, you'll have missed the boat. More, his trade value is still considerably less then his upside....which makes him exactly the kind of target a savvy fantasy owner SHOULD be craving.That said, you're getting more criticism then you deserve in this thread. If all of us published top 50 lists, we'd each have at least 6 or 7 players considerably different from the consensus. In fact, I'd argue that anyone who DIDN'T have a few outliers either lied about their opinions or has no insight to offer (and thus, isn't worth reading).

Another point....Dallas isn't going to produce two top ten WR's and a top ten TE...something has to give there. Since none of them are going anywhere soon, one of them is far too high. Dropping Dez down into the 12-15 range for now would make more sense, but I'd have no problem with dropping Austin instead.

 

[JoeDog]

I think Larry Fitzgerald is awesome and I wish he played for an East Coast team. He's fun to watch, but I would rank him third behind the Johnsons, Andre and Calvin. You can't ignore the QB situation in the desert. The Cardinals will not generate nearly as much offense as they did with God Boy. Fewer first downs means fewer catches for Fitzgerald.