Earnest Graham (1 Viewer)

[ConstruxBoy]

Sometimes I swear that some owners think that the goal in a dynasty league is to not win UNTIL 2 more years. So what if Graham only has another good season or season and a half in him? He can help me the title in 2008. I'd rather have him help me win the title in 2008 and then be looking for help in 2009 then giving up on 2008 for a young RB whom I HOPE can help me win in 2009.

And thus the Reuben Droughns logic rears its ugly head. The problem with this type of player in a dynasty is not that he has no value, but rather that you can probably do a lot better at his ADP in a dynasty draft. It doesn't make sense to use a top 60 pick on this guy given the other options that will be on the board. The future isn't the only consideration in a dynasty league, but it's certainly a consideration. It's usually a mistake to take these potential 1-2 year players over potential 4-6 year players. I've rarely seen this type of pick pay off in the long run.

Ahh..you were talking more about a pick in a start up Dynasty league. I was reading it as having Graham on your roster right now. I do understand your point although I do think some owners value the future too much. But yes, there is likely someone with more upside at his ADP.

But its not just abut the initial draft. Its also about what it would take to acquire that player and/or what you can get for them in trade.No one is suggesting that Graham be cut. But it might be a good idea to sell his replacement level talent high if you can get value.

Sure, but what is value? Is value getting back someone who won't help you in 2008 but MIGHT in 2009/2010? That's where I sometimes see trades that don't make sense. But it's certainly all about what each owner would do. I have Graham and I would trade him for someone who will be decent this year and I KNOW will be good in 2009 and beyond. But trading him for a mid to late first rounder seems silly to me. Sure, you might get an elite back, but you also may get a bust. And that rookie RB is unlikely to help you in 2008 much. So you lose out on a run at the title in 2008 and have to hope that your 1.6 rookie pick doesn't bust.

 

[Beaumont]

Sometimes I swear that some owners think that the goal in a dynasty league is to not win UNTIL 2 more years. So what if Graham only has another good season or season and a half in him? He can help me the title in 2008. I'd rather have him help me win the title in 2008 and then be looking for help in 2009 then giving up on 2008 for a young RB whom I HOPE can help me win in 2009.

And thus the Reuben Droughns logic rears its ugly head. The problem with this type of player in a dynasty is not that he has no value, but rather that you can probably do a lot better at his ADP in a dynasty draft. It doesn't make sense to use a top 60 pick on this guy given the other options that will be on the board. The future isn't the only consideration in a dynasty league, but it's certainly a consideration. It's usually a mistake to take these potential 1-2 year players over potential 4-6 year players. I've rarely seen this type of pick pay off in the long run.

Ahh..you were talking more about a pick in a start up Dynasty league. I was reading it as having Graham on your roster right now. I do understand your point although I do think some owners value the future too much. But yes, there is likely someone with more upside at his ADP.

But its not just abut the initial draft. Its also about what it would take to acquire that player and/or what you can get for them in trade.No one is suggesting that Graham be cut. But it might be a good idea to sell his replacement level talent high if you can get value.

Sure, but what is value? Is value getting back someone who won't help you in 2008 but MIGHT in 2009/2010? That's where I sometimes see trades that don't make sense. But it's certainly all about what each owner would do. I have Graham and I would trade him for someone who will be decent this year and I KNOW will be good in 2009 and beyond. But trading him for a mid to late first rounder seems silly to me. Sure, you might get an elite back, but you also may get a bust. And that rookie RB is unlikely to help you in 2008 much. So you lose out on a run at the title in 2008 and have to hope that your 1.6 rookie pick doesn't bust.

At 1.6 in a HyperActive type ppr league I grab one of the top 2 WR and consider Graham a cheap price to pay ...

 

[Biabreakable]

Sometimes I swear that some owners think that the goal in a dynasty league is to not win UNTIL 2 more years. So what if Graham only has another good season or season and a half in him? He can help me the title in 2008. I'd rather have him help me win the title in 2008 and then be looking for help in 2009 then giving up on 2008 for a young RB whom I HOPE can help me win in 2009.

And thus the Reuben Droughns logic rears its ugly head. The problem with this type of player in a dynasty is not that he has no value, but rather that you can probably do a lot better at his ADP in a dynasty draft. It doesn't make sense to use a top 60 pick on this guy given the other options that will be on the board. The future isn't the only consideration in a dynasty league, but it's certainly a consideration. It's usually a mistake to take these potential 1-2 year players over potential 4-6 year players. I've rarely seen this type of pick pay off in the long run.

Ahh..you were talking more about a pick in a start up Dynasty league. I was reading it as having Graham on your roster right now. I do understand your point although I do think some owners value the future too much. But yes, there is likely someone with more upside at his ADP.

But its not just abut the initial draft. Its also about what it would take to acquire that player and/or what you can get for them in trade.No one is suggesting that Graham be cut. But it might be a good idea to sell his replacement level talent high if you can get value.

Sure, but what is value? Is value getting back someone who won't help you in 2008 but MIGHT in 2009/2010? That's where I sometimes see trades that don't make sense. But it's certainly all about what each owner would do. I have Graham and I would trade him for someone who will be decent this year and I KNOW will be good in 2009 and beyond. But trading him for a mid to late first rounder seems silly to me. Sure, you might get an elite back, but you also may get a bust. And that rookie RB is unlikely to help you in 2008 much. So you lose out on a run at the title in 2008 and have to hope that your 1.6 rookie pick doesn't bust.

At 1.6 in a HyperActive type ppr league I grab one of the top 2 WR and consider Graham a cheap price to pay ...

This only proves to me how skewed PPR scoring is. Another thing to think about is how old Galloway and Garcia are. I think this offense greatly improved last season especially the Oline. But the offense will step backwards when Galloway and Garcia decline which could happen this season. Where will that leave Grahm/Willaims then?If the team has to retool QB and WR positions then talent will win out at RB in the meantime and I still think that battle goes to Caddy.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Sometimes I swear that some owners think that the goal in a dynasty league is to not win UNTIL 2 more years. So what if Graham only has another good season or season and a half in him? He can help me the title in 2008. I'd rather have him help me win the title in 2008 and then be looking for help in 2009 then giving up on 2008 for a young RB whom I HOPE can help me win in 2009.

And thus the Reuben Droughns logic rears its ugly head. The problem with this type of player in a dynasty is not that he has no value, but rather that you can probably do a lot better at his ADP in a dynasty draft. It doesn't make sense to use a top 60 pick on this guy given the other options that will be on the board. The future isn't the only consideration in a dynasty league, but it's certainly a consideration. It's usually a mistake to take these potential 1-2 year players over potential 4-6 year players. I've rarely seen this type of pick pay off in the long run.

Ahh..you were talking more about a pick in a start up Dynasty league. I was reading it as having Graham on your roster right now. I do understand your point although I do think some owners value the future too much. But yes, there is likely someone with more upside at his ADP.

But its not just abut the initial draft. Its also about what it would take to acquire that player and/or what you can get for them in trade.No one is suggesting that Graham be cut. But it might be a good idea to sell his replacement level talent high if you can get value.

Sure, but what is value? Is value getting back someone who won't help you in 2008 but MIGHT in 2009/2010? That's where I sometimes see trades that don't make sense. But it's certainly all about what each owner would do. I have Graham and I would trade him for someone who will be decent this year and I KNOW will be good in 2009 and beyond. But trading him for a mid to late first rounder seems silly to me. Sure, you might get an elite back, but you also may get a bust. And that rookie RB is unlikely to help you in 2008 much. So you lose out on a run at the title in 2008 and have to hope that your 1.6 rookie pick doesn't bust.

At 1.6 in a HyperActive type ppr league I grab one of the top 2 WR and consider Graham a cheap price to pay ...

Guess we just disagree. Of course I liked Graham coming out of Florida so I might be biased because I don't view him as a flash in the pan.

 

[Beaumont]

Sometimes I swear that some owners think that the goal in a dynasty league is to not win UNTIL 2 more years. So what if Graham only has another good season or season and a half in him? He can help me the title in 2008. I'd rather have him help me win the title in 2008 and then be looking for help in 2009 then giving up on 2008 for a young RB whom I HOPE can help me win in 2009.

And thus the Reuben Droughns logic rears its ugly head. The problem with this type of player in a dynasty is not that he has no value, but rather that you can probably do a lot better at his ADP in a dynasty draft. It doesn't make sense to use a top 60 pick on this guy given the other options that will be on the board. The future isn't the only consideration in a dynasty league, but it's certainly a consideration. It's usually a mistake to take these potential 1-2 year players over potential 4-6 year players. I've rarely seen this type of pick pay off in the long run.

Ahh..you were talking more about a pick in a start up Dynasty league. I was reading it as having Graham on your roster right now. I do understand your point although I do think some owners value the future too much. But yes, there is likely someone with more upside at his ADP.

But its not just abut the initial draft. Its also about what it would take to acquire that player and/or what you can get for them in trade.No one is suggesting that Graham be cut. But it might be a good idea to sell his replacement level talent high if you can get value.

Sure, but what is value? Is value getting back someone who won't help you in 2008 but MIGHT in 2009/2010? That's where I sometimes see trades that don't make sense. But it's certainly all about what each owner would do. I have Graham and I would trade him for someone who will be decent this year and I KNOW will be good in 2009 and beyond. But trading him for a mid to late first rounder seems silly to me. Sure, you might get an elite back, but you also may get a bust. And that rookie RB is unlikely to help you in 2008 much. So you lose out on a run at the title in 2008 and have to hope that your 1.6 rookie pick doesn't bust.

At 1.6 in a HyperActive type ppr league I grab one of the top 2 WR and consider Graham a cheap price to pay ...

Guess we just disagree. Of course I liked Graham coming out of Florida so I might be biased because I don't view him as a flash in the pan.

Sure. Differing opinions on value are what make trades possible.

 

[Jedimaster21]

Guys like this just don't last as starters in the NFL. Here is the current list of RBs who have been starters for at least two consecutive seasons:Ronnie BrownThomas JonesWillis McGaheeRudi JohnsonJamal LewisWillie ParkerAhman GreenJoseph AddaiFred TaylorLarry JohnsonLaDainian TomlinsonBrian WestbrookClinton PortisKevin JonesWarrick DunnDeshaun FosterEdgerrin JamesSteven JacksonFrank GoreShaun AlexanderAs you can see, that's a pretty elite group of talent. And that shouldn't be a big surprise. Mediocrity just doesn't last in the NFL. There are too many talented players floating around for marginal guys to maintain a long term hold on a starting job. I don't think Graham is on par with the average starting NFL RB, which means I don't think he'll be starting for very long. In my view he's dynasty poison roughly on par with Reuben Droughns circa 2006. I recommend avoiding him in every format but redraft, where he could be a nice play.

Sometimes I swear that some owners think that the goal in a dynasty league is to not win UNTIL 2 more years. So what if Graham only has another good season or season and a half in him? He can help me the title in 2008. I'd rather have him help me win the title in 2008 and then be looking for help in 2009 then giving up on 2008 for a young RB whom I HOPE can help me win in 2009.

I think thinking ahead in a dynasty league is the smartest approach to take. I don't think Graham is a good investment at all in a dynasty league, and several factors determine that opinion...1. It is more than performance that goes into the value of a player, it is the perceived value that the player carries. Even if a player is good now, if he is most likely worthless in 2 years, you won't be getting anything but production from him. Almost zero exit value, which limits your options.2. I have found that setting your team up to compete for multiple years is the best way to win championships. Depending on your format, way too much luck goes into FF to sell out for one season (especially if you have a head to head format). One injury, one bad performance, and your team is left with no championship and a bunch of old talent with limited trade value. If you are always looking two or more years ahead, you can overcome that luck factor over the span of multiple years.3. The most effective strategy in FF is to obtain players while their value is on the way up or just reaching the top of their curve. Earnest Graham has most likely already reached the top and his value will never be higher. Even if he continues to play like he did last season (which I seriously question), and the Bucs choose not to bring in competition and make him their guy (which also isn't likely), after the season he will be 29 and still won't hold considerable more value than he does now. 4. Dynasty leagues are all about talent unless a situation is very unique (Patriots and Colts perhaps), and I just don't think Graham is that good. He is a player that the Bucs will always try to upgrade.In redraft he is more intriguing, but I also think many have that same opinion, so I would try to move him for a player that offers a little more upside. In a one year format I think it is a smart decision to wait until the Bucs make a decision about the RB position in the draft and FA, but in dynasty I would be selling as fast as possible.

 

[DoubleG]

I think thinking ahead in a dynasty league is the smartest approach to take. I don't think Graham is a good investment at all in a dynasty league, and several factors determine that opinion...

1. It is more than performance that goes into the value of a player, it is the perceived value that the player carries. Even if a player is good now, if he is most likely worthless in 2 years, you won't be getting anything but production from him. Almost zero exit value, which limits your options.

2. I have found that setting your team up to compete for multiple years is the best way to win championships. Depending on your format, way too much luck goes into FF to sell out for one season (especially if you have a head to head format). One injury, one bad performance, and your team is left with no championship and a bunch of old talent with limited trade value. If you are always looking two or more years ahead, you can overcome that luck factor over the span of multiple years.

3. The most effective strategy in FF is to obtain players while their value is on the way up or just reaching the top of their curve. Earnest Graham has most likely already reached the top and his value will never be higher. Even if he continues to play like he did last season (which I seriously question), and the Bucs choose not to bring in competition and make him their guy (which also isn't likely), after the season he will be 29 and still won't hold considerable more value than he does now.

4. Dynasty leagues are all about talent unless a situation is very unique (Patriots and Colts perhaps), and I just don't think Graham is that good. He is a player that the Bucs will always try to upgrade.

In redraft he is more intriguing, but I also think many have that same opinion, so I would try to move him for a player that offers a little more upside. In a one year format I think it is a smart decision to wait until the Bucs make a decision about the RB position in the draft and FA, but in dynasty I would be selling as fast as possible.

I've bolded a few points above. First off, potential is good, but it is no good if the players your roster never realize it while on your team. "you won't be getting anything but production" - while I think I see your point, the fact is, you need productive players to win. I do agree that you don't "sell out to win now" or, inversely trade away a very good team now for the CHANCE to be good later. There's a difference between picking up/trading for an under-valued player vs. overpaying for one.Many players in dynasty leagues end up having low to no exit value - unless you are excellent at predicting the future, there are many players that coaches are "forced" to ride out to the end. Harrison is an excellent example - as is Favre and a number of others. The point is when a player suddenly gets injured or unexpectedly his play takes a sharp down turn due to age, you simply get "stuck" hoping they have "1 more year".

I disagree that Graham has already reached the top of his potential value. First off, as you admit, the Bucs could do a number of things that could hurt his value - but they could also do several that would help it. Would-be owners are concerned that the Bucs may yet go after a FA or draft an RB early - that brings his current value down (it would be higher if they do neither). Secondly, the Caddy situation is still largely up in the air. Any set back in the next few months would only raise Graham's value. Finally, and most importantly, he didn't start the whole season last year - if it became a situation whereby he would be/could be the starter for the entire season, his value would be considerably higher.

The point is, the questions (Caddy, who they will draft/bring in at RB) bring Graham's perceived value way down. He could, given much of the above, easily outperform his current low value if any (or all) break his way. The question is what can a Graham owner get (or what would a perspective Graham owner have to give up)? It may be easier to "buy" Graham than to trade him for high value now, imho.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

I think thinking ahead in a dynasty league is the smartest approach to take. I don't think Graham is a good investment at all in a dynasty league, and several factors determine that opinion...

1. It is more than performance that goes into the value of a player, it is the perceived value that the player carries. Even if a player is good now, if he is most likely worthless in 2 years, you won't be getting anything but production from him. Almost zero exit value, which limits your options.

2. I have found that setting your team up to compete for multiple years is the best way to win championships. Depending on your format, way too much luck goes into FF to sell out for one season (especially if you have a head to head format). One injury, one bad performance, and your team is left with no championship and a bunch of old talent with limited trade value. If you are always looking two or more years ahead, you can overcome that luck factor over the span of multiple years.

3. The most effective strategy in FF is to obtain players while their value is on the way up or just reaching the top of their curve. Earnest Graham has most likely already reached the top and his value will never be higher. Even if he continues to play like he did last season (which I seriously question), and the Bucs choose not to bring in competition and make him their guy (which also isn't likely), after the season he will be 29 and still won't hold considerable more value than he does now.

4. Dynasty leagues are all about talent unless a situation is very unique (Patriots and Colts perhaps), and I just don't think Graham is that good. He is a player that the Bucs will always try to upgrade.

In redraft he is more intriguing, but I also think many have that same opinion, so I would try to move him for a player that offers a little more upside. In a one year format I think it is a smart decision to wait until the Bucs make a decision about the RB position in the draft and FA, but in dynasty I would be selling as fast as possible.

I've bolded a few points above. First off, potential is good, but it is no good if the players your roster never realize it while on your team. "you won't be getting anything but production" - while I think I see your point, the fact is, you need productive players to win. I do agree that you don't "sell out to win now" or, inversely trade away a very good team now for the CHANCE to be good later. There's a difference between picking up/trading for an under-valued player vs. overpaying for one.Many players in dynasty leagues end up having low to no exit value - unless you are excellent at predicting the future, there are many players that coaches are "forced" to ride out to the end. Harrison is an excellent example - as is Favre and a number of others. The point is when a player suddenly gets injured or unexpectedly his play takes a sharp down turn due to age, you simply get "stuck" hoping they have "1 more year".

I disagree that Graham has already reached the top of his potential value. First off, as you admit, the Bucs could do a number of things that could hurt his value - but they could also do several that would help it. Would-be owners are concerned that the Bucs may yet go after a FA or draft an RB early - that brings his current value down (it would be higher if they do neither). Secondly, the Caddy situation is still largely up in the air. Any set back in the next few months would only raise Graham's value. Finally, and most importantly, he didn't start the whole season last year - if it became a situation whereby he would be/could be the starter for the entire season, his value would be considerably higher.

The point is, the questions (Caddy, who they will draft/bring in at RB) bring Graham's perceived value way down. He could, given much of the above, easily outperform his current low value if any (or all) break his way. The question is what can a Graham owner get (or what would a perspective Graham owner have to give up)? It may be easier to "buy" Graham than to trade him for high value now, imho.

That's my point, although I didn't express it well. In my investigations, I'd have to take higher risk on unproven young players/picks for the future than the value of Graham in 2008 even with some decline. So I'd rather hope that Graham stays the same or sees only a small decrease in value and make a run at the 2008 title than really hurt my 2008 chances while hoping a young player turns out to be elite.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I think thinking ahead in a dynasty league is the smartest approach to take. I don't think Graham is a good investment at all in a dynasty league, and several factors determine that opinion...

1. It is more than performance that goes into the value of a player, it is the perceived value that the player carries. Even if a player is good now, if he is most likely worthless in 2 years, you won't be getting anything but production from him. Almost zero exit value, which limits your options.

2. I have found that setting your team up to compete for multiple years is the best way to win championships. Depending on your format, way too much luck goes into FF to sell out for one season (especially if you have a head to head format). One injury, one bad performance, and your team is left with no championship and a bunch of old talent with limited trade value. If you are always looking two or more years ahead, you can overcome that luck factor over the span of multiple years.

3. The most effective strategy in FF is to obtain players while their value is on the way up or just reaching the top of their curve. Earnest Graham has most likely already reached the top and his value will never be higher. Even if he continues to play like he did last season (which I seriously question), and the Bucs choose not to bring in competition and make him their guy (which also isn't likely), after the season he will be 29 and still won't hold considerable more value than he does now.

4. Dynasty leagues are all about talent unless a situation is very unique (Patriots and Colts perhaps), and I just don't think Graham is that good. He is a player that the Bucs will always try to upgrade.

In redraft he is more intriguing, but I also think many have that same opinion, so I would try to move him for a player that offers a little more upside. In a one year format I think it is a smart decision to wait until the Bucs make a decision about the RB position in the draft and FA, but in dynasty I would be selling as fast as possible.

I've bolded a few points above. First off, potential is good, but it is no good if the players your roster never realize it while on your team. "you won't be getting anything but production" - while I think I see your point, the fact is, you need productive players to win. I do agree that you don't "sell out to win now" or, inversely trade away a very good team now for the CHANCE to be good later. There's a difference between picking up/trading for an under-valued player vs. overpaying for one.Many players in dynasty leagues end up having low to no exit value - unless you are excellent at predicting the future, there are many players that coaches are "forced" to ride out to the end. Harrison is an excellent example - as is Favre and a number of others. The point is when a player suddenly gets injured or unexpectedly his play takes a sharp down turn due to age, you simply get "stuck" hoping they have "1 more year".

I disagree that Graham has already reached the top of his potential value. First off, as you admit, the Bucs could do a number of things that could hurt his value - but they could also do several that would help it. Would-be owners are concerned that the Bucs may yet go after a FA or draft an RB early - that brings his current value down (it would be higher if they do neither). Secondly, the Caddy situation is still largely up in the air. Any set back in the next few months would only raise Graham's value. Finally, and most importantly, he didn't start the whole season last year - if it became a situation whereby he would be/could be the starter for the entire season, his value would be considerably higher.

The point is, the questions (Caddy, who they will draft/bring in at RB) bring Graham's perceived value way down. He could, given much of the above, easily outperform his current low value if any (or all) break his way. The question is what can a Graham owner get (or what would a perspective Graham owner have to give up)? It may be easier to "buy" Graham than to trade him for high value now, imho.

Good points all around, but the fact that you have this opinion is the exact reason I would be selling. There are bound to be at least a few owners in every league that like his chances going forward, and for all the reasons stated in my above post I would be selling him to that owner.

 

[Beaumont]

From Rotoworld:

The Bucs have expressed an interest in RB Julius Jones though it's uncertain if a visit has been arranged.

With Michael Turner off the market, Jones could be the best running back available in free agency. The Bucs' interest in seemingly every back available leaves Earnest Graham with an apparently tenuous long-term value.

http://www.tboblogs.com/index.php/sports/related/C546/