Ellington vs. Gio (1 Viewer)

[robert88]

Can someone explain to me why everyone has Gio ranked as a top 5 dynasty RB, while Ellington is closer to RB20?

The firs thing that jumps out to me is age, but should 3 years when they are both definitely still young guys be enough to make up that entire difference?

Last year, the two had very similar seasons. Here's the stats:

Ellington
<PRE>Rush ReceYear Age Tm Pos No. G GS Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV2013 24 ARI 38 15 1 118 652 3 80 5.5 43.5 7.9 39 371 9.5 1 38 2.6 24.7 1023 4 1 7Career 15 1 118 652 3 80 5.5 43.5 7.9 39 371 9.5 1 38 2.6 24.7 1023 4 1 7</PRE>
Bernard

<PRE>Rush ReceYear Age Tm Pos No. G GS Att Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G YScm RRTD Fmb AV2013 22 CIN 25 16 0 170 695 5 35 4.1 43.4 10.6 56 514 9.2 3 41 3.5 32.1 1209 8 2 9Career 16 0 170 695 5 35 4.1 43.4 10.6 56 514 9.2 3 41 3.5 32.1 1209 8 2 9</PRE>Rushing yards are roughly equal, only Ellington did it on 50 fewer carries behind an abysmal O-line. The biggest difference is in total receiving yards, but even there Ellington has a higher (albeit very slightly) Y/R.

Another set of stats is broken tackles. I don't know a lot about these kind of advanced stats when it comes to football, but this seem like a significant advantage:

25-G.Bernard CIN 28 170 56 226 12.4% -- 38-A.Ellington ARI 28 118 39 157 17.8%

After a (very high level) look at stats, the next thing is competition. Ellington clearly has a huge advantage here, as Gio has Hill behind (alongside?) him and Lawfirm still kind of in the picture.

I realized this isn't a highly detailed research project, but I've seen these stats and seen the rankings and just can't grasp why there's such a significant difference in the ranking of these two players. Perhaps you guys can shed some light on this for me.

Thanks!

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I'd guess probably the bulk of it is simply that bernard was the first rb off the board last year, while ellington is some dude from the 6th round.

draft position will be a big influence on people lingering well past a player's first game --- just look at trent richardson, where would he be drafted right now if he was some nobody from the 7th round?

if you want to go a little deeper there might be concerns that ellington is just a passing down back whose game won't extrapolate over workhorse carries, that he's on a crappy passing team with a ####ty line, or that he's a little dude who already has an injury history and just packed on extra weight to carry around with his busted up legs.

meanwhile, gio looks like a barry sanders youtube clip and is on a running team surrounded by a pretty good offense behind a solid line.

but it probably really comes down to the draft positions, which of course will have some of the other considerations built in.

 

[jtd13]

Ellington went 3.01 in a startup recently, 7 picks behind Gio. His ADP is mid 3rd on another dynasty site. I actually think he is overrated.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

maybe this is why

 

[ConnSKINS26]

First of all, in a start-up draft three years of age, at RB, is a huge deal if you're picking between these guys and happen to think they're similarly talented (I don't, and probably wouldn't invest in either at their current prices).

 

[Bronco Billy]

I think these guys right now are very evenly matched. Gio seems blocked more right now as as having an opportunity to carry a heavier load, but I fully expect to see AZ try to find Ellington a solid running mate to do the heavy lifting next season.

Based upon current ADPs Ellington is probably a better choice, and he'll at least be in line this year for a chance at a bigger workload.

 

[FUBAR]

I'd guess probably the bulk of it is simply that bernard was the first rb off the board last year, while ellington is some dude from the 6th round.

draft position will be a big influence on people lingering well past a player's first game --- just look at trent richardson, where would he be drafted right now if he was some nobody from the 7th round?

if you want to go a little deeper there might be concerns that ellington is just a passing down back whose game won't extrapolate over workhorse carries, that he's on a crappy passing team with a ####ty line, or that he's a little dude who already has an injury history and just packed on extra weight to carry around with his busted up legs.

meanwhile, gio looks like a barry sanders youtube clip and is on a running team surrounded by a pretty good offense behind a solid line.

but it probably really comes down to the draft positions, which of course will have some of the other considerations built in.

He could become a Westbrook / Sproles / Woodhead type back. Which in PPR is good value.

FWIW, in an ongoing auction, Ellington went for 60% of Gio's price ($8.51 to $14.25). So yes, I think Gio is quite a bit overrated.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I'd guess probably the bulk of it is simply that bernard was the first rb off the board last year, while ellington is some dude from the 6th round.

draft position will be a big influence on people lingering well past a player's first game --- just look at trent richardson, where would he be drafted right now if he was some nobody from the 7th round?

if you want to go a little deeper there might be concerns that ellington is just a passing down back whose game won't extrapolate over workhorse carries, that he's on a crappy passing team with a ####ty line, or that he's a little dude who already has an injury history and just packed on extra weight to carry around with his busted up legs.

meanwhile, gio looks like a barry sanders youtube clip and is on a running team surrounded by a pretty good offense behind a solid line.

but it probably really comes down to the draft positions, which of course will have some of the other considerations built in.

He could become a Westbrook / Sproles / Woodhead type back. Which in PPR is good value.

FWIW, in an ongoing auction, Ellington went for 60% of Gio's price ($8.51 to $14.25). So yes, I think Gio is quite a bit overrated.

the problem with this kind of comparison is that you blur the line between fantasy and reality.

we don't really care how big everyone is, or what their perceived ability is ---- the bottom line for fantasy is stats, and those guys you mentioned benefited from their situations as much as anything else, which is why you consider them 'good value'

I mean, not to knock anybody.

brian westbrook was knocking down 100 targets on a contending team with a top 10 offense --- reid's scheme is no secret

sproles picked up points in the return game, but also picked up 100 targets on his part-time job for one of the hottest high volume offenses in the league -- on carpet

woodhead has got to be a cut below those guys, but still got off to a hot start and managed 87 targets on the year for a playoff team ranking 12th in points andt 5th in yardage --- his second half was probably a little lackluster

ellington had 57 targets last year on a team with a lot of issues.

 

[ImTheScientist]

ellington had 57 targets last year on a team with a lot of issues.

They finished 10-6. They finished 16th in PPG

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

ellington had 57 targets last year on a team with a lot of issues.

They finished 10-6. They finished 16th in PPG

wow...16th?

let me get that C tacked up on the refrigerator for you

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

and if we want to throw another log on the fire, the other 3 teams in ellington's division all finished top 10 in rushing yardage allowed, with the rams #2 toughest in ypc allowed

 

[ImTheScientist]

ellington had 57 targets last year on a team with a lot of issues.

They finished 10-6. They finished 16th in PPG

wow...16th?

let me get that C tacked up on the refrigerator for you

Perhaps you have a different take on "a lot of issues". The Jags have a lot of issues.

 

[ImTheScientist]

and if we want to throw another log on the fire, the other 3 teams in ellington's division all finished top 10 in rushing yardage allowed, with the rams #2 toughest in ypc allowed

And he still averaged 5.5 ypc....

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

and if we want to throw another log on the fire, the other 3 teams in ellington's division all finished top 10 in rushing yardage allowed, with the rams #2 toughest in ypc allowed

And he still averaged 5.5 ypc....

felix jones averaged 5.9 ypc in his 2nd year --- you can probably get him even later than ellington

 

[ImTheScientist]

and if we want to throw another log on the fire, the other 3 teams in ellington's division all finished top 10 in rushing yardage allowed, with the rams #2 toughest in ypc allowed

And he still averaged 5.5 ypc....

felix jones averaged 5.9 ypc in his 2nd year --- you can probably get him even later than ellington

Jamal Charles averaged 5.9 ypc in his 2nd year-- you can't get him later than ellington. Neither Charles nor Jones have anything to do with Ellington. At this point you are just rambling on about pointless #### at this point. Back to the real OP question.

Ellington vs Gio?

 

[FUBAR]

I'd guess probably the bulk of it is simply that bernard was the first rb off the board last year, while ellington is some dude from the 6th round.

draft position will be a big influence on people lingering well past a player's first game --- just look at trent richardson, where would he be drafted right now if he was some nobody from the 7th round?

if you want to go a little deeper there might be concerns that ellington is just a passing down back whose game won't extrapolate over workhorse carries, that he's on a crappy passing team with a ####ty line, or that he's a little dude who already has an injury history and just packed on extra weight to carry around with his busted up legs.

meanwhile, gio looks like a barry sanders youtube clip and is on a running team surrounded by a pretty good offense behind a solid line.

but it probably really comes down to the draft positions, which of course will have some of the other considerations built in.

He could become a Westbrook / Sproles / Woodhead type back. Which in PPR is good value.

FWIW, in an ongoing auction, Ellington went for 60% of Gio's price ($8.51 to $14.25). So yes, I think Gio is quite a bit overrated.

the problem with this kind of comparison is that you blur the line between fantasy and reality.

we don't really care how big everyone is, or what their perceived ability is ---- the bottom line for fantasy is stats, and those guys you mentioned benefited from their situations as much as anything else, which is why you consider them 'good value'

I mean, not to knock anybody.

brian westbrook was knocking down 100 targets on a contending team with a top 10 offense --- reid's scheme is no secret

sproles picked up points in the return game, but also picked up 100 targets on his part-time job for one of the hottest high volume offenses in the league -- on carpet

woodhead has got to be a cut below those guys, but still got off to a hot start and managed 87 targets on the year for a playoff team ranking 12th in points andt 5th in yardage --- his second half was probably a little lackluster

ellington had 57 targets last year on a team with a lot of issues.

57 targets as a 6th round rookie who wasn't expected to do much. on a team with an elite receiver and two other decent receivers, one of which left.

I don't expect top 10 stats but I think woodhead type production is reasonable to predict, probably more as he doesn't have a good rb in front of him.

 

[cstu]

NAME POS YR AGE EXP G RSH RSHYD YD/RSH RSHTD REC RECYD YD/REC RECTD FANT PT1 Andre Ellington rb 2013 24 1 15 118 652 5.53 3 39 371 9.51 1 126.32 DeMarco Murray rb 2011 23 1 13 163 895 5.49 2 26 183 7.04 0 119.83 Adrian Peterson rb 2007 22 1 14 238 1341 5.63 12 19 268 14.11 1 238.94 Selvin Young rb 2007 24 1 15 140 729 5.21 1 35 231 6.60 0 102.05 MJD rb 2006 21 1 16 166 941 5.67 13 46 436 9.48 2 227.76 Steven Jackson rb 2004 21 1 14 134 673 5.02 4 19 189 9.95 0 110.27 Onterrio Smith rb 2003 23 1 15 107 579 5.41 5 15 129 8.60 0 100.88 Clinton Portis rb 2002 21 1 16 273 1508 5.52 15 33 364 11.03 2 289.29 Mike Anderson rb 2000 27 1 14 297 1487 5.01 15 23 169 7.35 0 255.6These are the rookie RB's since 1990 with 5 YPC on over 100 carries and at least 6 receptions.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

I'd guess probably the bulk of it is simply that bernard was the first rb off the board last year, while ellington is some dude from the 6th round.

draft position will be a big influence on people lingering well past a player's first game --- just look at trent richardson, where would he be drafted right now if he was some nobody from the 7th round?

if you want to go a little deeper there might be concerns that ellington is just a passing down back whose game won't extrapolate over workhorse carries, that he's on a crappy passing team with a ####ty line, or that he's a little dude who already has an injury history and just packed on extra weight to carry around with his busted up legs.

meanwhile, gio looks like a barry sanders youtube clip and is on a running team surrounded by a pretty good offense behind a solid line.

but it probably really comes down to the draft positions, which of course will have some of the other considerations built in.

He could become a Westbrook / Sproles / Woodhead type back. Which in PPR is good value.

FWIW, in an ongoing auction, Ellington went for 60% of Gio's price ($8.51 to $14.25). So yes, I think Gio is quite a bit overrated.

the problem with this kind of comparison is that you blur the line between fantasy and reality.

we don't really care how big everyone is, or what their perceived ability is ---- the bottom line for fantasy is stats, and those guys you mentioned benefited from their situations as much as anything else, which is why you consider them 'good value'

I mean, not to knock anybody.

brian westbrook was knocking down 100 targets on a contending team with a top 10 offense --- reid's scheme is no secret

sproles picked up points in the return game, but also picked up 100 targets on his part-time job for one of the hottest high volume offenses in the league -- on carpet

woodhead has got to be a cut below those guys, but still got off to a hot start and managed 87 targets on the year for a playoff team ranking 12th in points andt 5th in yardage --- his second half was probably a little lackluster

ellington had 57 targets last year on a team with a lot of issues.

57 targets as a 6th round rookie who wasn't expected to do much. on a team with an elite receiver and two other decent receivers, one of which left.

I don't expect top 10 stats but I think woodhead type production is reasonable to predict, probably more as he doesn't have a good rb in front of him.

where was woodhead drafted last year?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

here's an interesting stat from PFF

ellington finished 2nd in yac/carry

1 - donald brown

2 - ellington

3 - ivory

4 - starks

5 - peterson

 

[FUBAR]

I'd guess probably the bulk of it is simply that bernard was the first rb off the board last year, while ellington is some dude from the 6th round.

draft position will be a big influence on people lingering well past a player's first game --- just look at trent richardson, where would he be drafted right now if he was some nobody from the 7th round?

if you want to go a little deeper there might be concerns that ellington is just a passing down back whose game won't extrapolate over workhorse carries, that he's on a crappy passing team with a ####ty line, or that he's a little dude who already has an injury history and just packed on extra weight to carry around with his busted up legs.

meanwhile, gio looks like a barry sanders youtube clip and is on a running team surrounded by a pretty good offense behind a solid line.

but it probably really comes down to the draft positions, which of course will have some of the other considerations built in.

He could become a Westbrook / Sproles / Woodhead type back. Which in PPR is good value.

FWIW, in an ongoing auction, Ellington went for 60% of Gio's price ($8.51 to $14.25). So yes, I think Gio is quite a bit overrated.

the problem with this kind of comparison is that you blur the line between fantasy and reality.

we don't really care how big everyone is, or what their perceived ability is ---- the bottom line for fantasy is stats, and those guys you mentioned benefited from their situations as much as anything else, which is why you consider them 'good value'

I mean, not to knock anybody.

brian westbrook was knocking down 100 targets on a contending team with a top 10 offense --- reid's scheme is no secret

sproles picked up points in the return game, but also picked up 100 targets on his part-time job for one of the hottest high volume offenses in the league -- on carpet

woodhead has got to be a cut below those guys, but still got off to a hot start and managed 87 targets on the year for a playoff team ranking 12th in points andt 5th in yardage --- his second half was probably a little lackluster

ellington had 57 targets last year on a team with a lot of issues.

57 targets as a 6th round rookie who wasn't expected to do much. on a team with an elite receiver and two other decent receivers, one of which left.

I don't expect top 10 stats but I think woodhead type production is reasonable to predict, probably more as he doesn't have a good rb in front of him.

where was woodhead drafted last year?

irrelevant.

He was #12-16 RB in PPR.

 

[Warrior]

here's an interesting stat from PFF

ellington finished 2nd in yac/carry

1 - donald brown

2 - ellington

3 - ivory

4 - starks

5 - peterson

Great to see him listed alongside elite RBs such as Brown, Ivory and Starks. Clearly, this is an important measure for RBs.

 

[TheGrimReaper]

IMO, as long as people keep their EXPECTATIONS REASONABLE for Ellington, then he has a very good chance to pay dividends in ppr leagues. Personally I have him at 185-195 carries @ 4.5 (don't think the 5.5 ypa from 13 is sustainable as carries increase) and 45-50 recpts (approx. 9.0 ypr). Given that expected production and then comp'g him to GIO, he is not on the same tier as GIO but he isn't that far off either. GIO going early-mid 2nd in FFPC and Ellington going early to mid 3rd FFPC seems fairly priced at this point.

 

[Chaka]

maybe this is why

You dropped something there Darrelle.

 

[FUBAR]

maybe this is why

He has talent for sure, but the Dolphins linebackers weren't exactly textbook tacklers last year.

 

[socrates]

maybe this is why

Bernard is a talented runner, no doubt, but Ellington is no slouch, either.

I think they are not so far apart as some may think, and Ellington's role is clearer at this point than Gio's.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

I think they are not so far apart as some may think, and Ellington's role is clearer at this point than Gio's.

I don't know about this. Bernard got over 220 touches last year....I would be shocked if he got less than 250 and I think he could touch 300-320.

Ellington got 160 last year. I have absolutely no clue what Arians plans to do with him.

 

[Chaka]

maybe this is why

Bernard is a talented runner, no doubt, but Ellington is no slouch, either.

I think they are not so far apart as some may think, and Ellington's role is clearer at this point than Gio's.

I would bet all the money in Otis' wallet that Gio is the unquestioned lead back in Cinci.

 

[Chaka]

I think they are not so far apart as some may think, and Ellington's role is clearer at this point than Gio's.

I don't know about this. Bernard got over 220 touches last year....I would be shocked if he got less than 250 and I think he could touch 300-320.

Ellington got 160 last year. I have absolutely no clue what Arians plans to do with him.

Arians has been quoted as saying Ellington is in line for a big boost in touches. He is also an admitted liar.

 

[Bob Magaw]

I think they are not so far apart as some may think, and Ellington's role is clearer at this point than Gio's.

I don't know about this. Bernard got over 220 touches last year....I would be shocked if he got less than 250 and I think he could touch 300-320.

Ellington got 160 last year. I have absolutely no clue what Arians plans to do with him.

Ellington's usage increased during the year.

He played 15 games (missed last one?).

In the first seven games of the season, he only had two games with more than 4 carries (7 twice). He averaged 4 per game. ARI was 3-4.

In the last eight games, he only had two games with less than 10 (9 twice). He averaged 11.25 per game (projects to 180 carries in 16 games, with no increase over his second half usage). ARI was 7-1 (not to suggest it may not have been for many other reasons - for one, ILB Washington missed the first month of the season, a sobering thought, given he is suspended for 2014, and Karlos Dansby left in free agency again).

His second half receptions didn't have the same kind of difference (projected to 40 receptions, he had 39).

That would be about 220 touches. FBG projection range from about 5-15 more carries and about 5 more receptions, which could bring it up to 240 touches on the high end.

Bernard is being projected for 200-220 carries and 60-70 receptions.

Of course, the respective acquisition cost has to be accounted for and factored in.

 

[FUBAR]

I think they are not so far apart as some may think, and Ellington's role is clearer at this point than Gio's.

I don't know about this. Bernard got over 220 touches last year....I would be shocked if he got less than 250 and I think he could touch 300-320.

Ellington got 160 last year. I have absolutely no clue what Arians plans to do with him.

Ellington's usage increased during the year.

He played 15 games (missed last one?).

In the first seven games of the season, he only had two games with more than 4 carries (7 twice). He averaged 4 per game. ARI was 3-4.

In the last eight games, he only had two games with less than 10 (9 twice). He averaged 11.25 per game (projects to 180 carries in 16 games, with no increase over his second half usage). ARI was 7-1 (not to suggest it may not have been for many other reasons - for one, ILB Washington missed the first month of the season, a sobering thought, given he is suspended for 2014, and Karlos Dansby left in free agency again).

His second half receptions didn't have the same kind of difference (projected to 40 receptions, he had 39).

That would be about 220 touches. FBG projection range from about 5-15 more carries and about 5 more receptions, which could bring it up to 240 touches on the high end.

Bernard is being projected for 200-220 carries and 60-70 receptions.

Of course, the respective acquisition cost has to be accounted for and factored in.

He missed week 13.

For the season, he averaged 9.8 pts.

First 8 games, 10.4

Second 8 games, 10.7

(Counted week 8 twice just to get an equal # of games and it was his best game)

Pretty even splits.

His problem was a lack of touchdowns. He won't have Mendenhall taking 8 TDs, but he also won't have Mendenhall wearing out the defense.

As an Ellington owner, I'm hoping Dwyer or Taylor can carry the ball enough to help wear out the D as I don't see Ellington as a bellcow. I'd feel a whole lot better about his potential to be a difference maker on the field if he were paired up with a strong between the tackles type.

 

[12punch]

I think they are not so far apart as some may think, and Ellington's role is clearer at this point than Gio's.

I don't know about this. Bernard got over 220 touches last year....I would be shocked if he got less than 250 and I think he could touch 300-320.

Ellington got 160 last year. I have absolutely no clue what Arians plans to do with him.

Ellington's usage increased during the year.

He played 15 games (missed last one?).

In the first seven games of the season, he only had two games with more than 4 carries (7 twice). He averaged 4 per game. ARI was 3-4.

In the last eight games, he only had two games with less than 10 (9 twice). He averaged 11.25 per game (projects to 180 carries in 16 games, with no increase over his second half usage). ARI was 7-1 (not to suggest it may not have been for many other reasons - for one, ILB Washington missed the first month of the season, a sobering thought, given he is suspended for 2014, and Karlos Dansby left in free agency again).

His second half receptions didn't have the same kind of difference (projected to 40 receptions, he had 39).

That would be about 220 touches. FBG projection range from about 5-15 more carries and about 5 more receptions, which could bring it up to 240 touches on the high end.

Bernard is being projected for 200-220 carries and 60-70 receptions.

Of course, the respective acquisition cost has to be accounted for and factored in.

He missed week 13.

For the season, he averaged 9.8 pts.

First 8 games, 10.4

Second 8 games, 10.7

(Counted week 8 twice just to get an equal # of games and it was his best game)

Pretty even splits.

His problem was a lack of touchdowns. He won't have Mendenhall taking 8 TDs, but he also won't have Mendenhall wearing out the defense.

As an Ellington owner, I'm hoping Dwyer or Taylor can carry the ball enough to help wear out the D as I don't see Ellington as a bellcow. I'd feel a whole lot better about his potential to be a difference maker on the field if he were paired up with a strong between the tackles type.

this is absolutely ridiculous

ps

here's an actually interesting and relevant observation from PFF

Just behind Blount sits new Arizona lead back Andre Ellington. Playing a situational role behind now-retired Rashard Mendenhall last season, Ellington averaged 5.5 yards per carry on 112 hauls. He did most of his damage against Nickel, racking up nearly seven yards per carry. A concern for Ellington supporters should be his work against Base defenses. Albeit on a small sample, he managed a 3.6 YPC, which, as we learned earlier, is more than a half yard below average.

ellington got 75% of his yardage against nickel+, as he saw that defense on 61% of his snaps, which puts him in a tie for 6th highest % in the league