College Backs and Yards Per CarryDeMarco Murray's college yards-per-carry average was unimpressive.From an entirely statistical perspective, NFL Network's Mike Mayock has discussed the desire to see a running back average five to six yards per carry at the college level when evaluating that player's pro prospects. Plenty of factors outside a player's control (line, system, competition) impact yards per carry, but the fundamental idea is pretty straightforward. Running backs who dominate in college are more likely to succeed in the pros, and YPC average is the best statistical measurement of a running back's down-to-down effectiveness when you have a large sample size. Some BackgroundSome running backs recently drafted in rounds one through four, and their college career yards-per-carry averages
eAngelo Williams, Memphis - 6.28Jamaal Charles, Texas - 6.24Shonn Greene, Iowa - 5.93Leon Washington, Florida State - 5.88Michael Bush, Louisville - 5.66Maurice Jones-Drew, UCLA - 5.55Knowshon Moreno, Georgia - 5.49Ryan Torain, Arizona State - 5.35Brandon Jackson, Nebraska - 4.92Andre Brown, NC State - 4.85Kenny Irons, Auburn - 4.81Lorenzo Booker, Florida State - 4.73Brian Calhoun, Wisconsin - 4.70Chris Perry, Michigan - 4.56Brian Leonard, Rutgers - 4.08Chris Henry, Arizona - 3.37Not a RuleThis isn't a study by Advanced NFL Stats; there are plenty of exceptions to Mayock's theory. Chris Johnson averaged 4.77 yards per carry in his college career, although he did explode to 6.03 as a senior. LeSean McCoy, 19 and 20 years old during his two years at Pitt, averaged 4.82. Arian Foster didn't take his college career seriously, averaging 4.56 at Tennessee. He paid for it on draft day. On the flip side, Laurence Maroney (5.65) and Tony Hunt (5.18) ripped up the Big Ten only to bust in the pros.So just understand that running backs' college yards-per-carry averages don't dictate NFL success. This isn't a rule. It's a loose guideline worth a look.The 2011 Running Back ClassThese are running backs considered worthy or at least borderline worthy of draft selections in April, ranked in order of career yards-per-carry average.* denotes underclassmanThe GamebreakersTaiwan Jones*, Eastern Washington - 7.90Alex Green, Hawaii - 7.12Vai Taua, Nevada - 6.45Mikel Leshoure*, Illinois - 6.03Comments: Jones did his damage in FCS (the old D-IAA), but the guy is a playmaker. Given a second- to third-round grade by the NFL Draft Advisory Committee, the 2010 Big Sky MVP has drawn comparisons to Brian Westbrook. ... Leshoure's average is the most impressive of this group because he did it against top competition behind a weak offensive line. He's a potential first-round pick. ... Green looked good at the East-West Shrine Game following an early fumble. He's not afraid of contact. ... Taua is a late-round prospect. In addition to his ridiculous YPC, he scored 52 touchdowns in his final three seasons at Nevada.Still EliteAllen Bradford, USC - 5.94Noel Devine, West Virginia - 5.92Kendall Hunter, Oklahoma State - 5.91Roy Helu, Nebraska - 5.89Mario Fannin, Auburn - 5.86Randall Cobb*, Kentucky - 5.76Evan Royster, Penn State - 5.73Mark Ingram*, Alabama - 5.70Comments: Bradford was fumble prone in college and faces serious off-field questions, but there's no question he got it done on a per-play basis at USC. ... The pint-sized Devine picked a bad time for his worst college season. He averaged 4.48 yards per carry as a senior after going for 6.50 in his first three years. ... Ingram dominated the SEC and is a shoe-in to be the first running back drafted. ... Fannin has a small sample size. He never topped 84 carries in a season, playing behind true freshman Michael Dyer last year. ... Hunter is a potential second-round pick. ... Cobb was primarily a wide receiver at Kentucky, but did rack up 228 career carries. ESPN's Todd McShay projects him as a running back in the pros.SatisfactoryDa'Rel Scott, Maryland - 5.58Jay Finley, Baylor - 5.56Anthony Allen, Georgia Tech - 5.56Chad Spann, Northern Illinois - 5.44John Clay*, Wisconsin - 5.43Donald Buckram, UTEP - 5.37Bilal Powell, Louisville - 5.36Damien Berry, Miami (FL) - 5.35Ryan Williams*, Virginia Tech - 5.29Dion Lewis*, Pittsburgh - 5.26Daniel Thomas, Kansas State - 5.23Comments: Finley broke out as a senior (195/1218/6.2/12). It will be interesting to see how he runs at the Combine. ... Powell is a power back and topped out at 6.14 yards per tote as a senior. He's been compared to Michael Turner. ... Williams and Thomas are both widely considered top-five running backs in this class. After averaging 5.65 YPC as a freshman, Williams slumped to 4.34 in an injury-prone redshirt sophomore season. ... Mayock loves Thomas' receiving skills. He caught 52 passes in two seasons at K-State.Just BarelyJordan Todman*, UConn - 5.16Graig Cooper, Miami (FL) - 5.12Shane Vereen*, Cal - 5.10Charles Clay, Tulsa - 5.09Derrick Locke, Kentucky - 5.05C.J. Gable, USC - 5.03Comments: Todman, Locke, and Vereen are undersized, third-down back types. ... Cooper would've finished his college career stronger if not for a torn ACL in 2009. A full year removed from the knee reconstruction, Cooper will be an interesting late-round flier. ... Clay, classified in some circles as a tight end or H-back, profiles as a Jason Snelling type at 6'3/239. Not Cutting ItJacquizz Rodgers*, Oregon State - 4.92Richard Murphy, LSU - 4.97DuJuan Harris, Troy - 4.88DeMarco Murray, Oklahoma - 4.86Darren Evans*, Virginia Tech - 4.84Delone Carter, Syracuse - 4.80Alex Robinson, Iowa State - 4.69Brandon Saine, Ohio State - 4.68Stevan Ridley*, LSU - 4.64Matt Asiata, Utah - 4.61Shaun Draughn, North Carolina - 4.59Armando Allen, Notre Dame - 4.57Robert Hughes, Notre Dame - 4.34Jamie Harper*, Clemson - 4.22Comments: Rodgers is Mayock's No. 5 running back, although in terms of YPC he had his worst season in 2010 (4.63). ... Harper is a popular sleeper among draftniks, but has questions to answer. Why did teammate Andre Ellington average 6.33 yards per attempt behind the same Clemson line? ... Murray is probably the biggest name on this list as a former BCS champion. Not only does he fall short of Mayock's yards-per-carry criteria, Murray's average fell to 4.22 in his final two seasons. Also battling numerous nagging injuries, did Murray wear down and lose steps after nearly 800 college carries?
Mostly to follow. Usually these try to make it simple metrics/stat things fall flat when people don't analyze the why a player has a high YPC versus just "he will be good because he meets this measure ment"
Mostly to follow. Usually these try to make it simple metrics/stat things fall flat when people don't analyze the why a player has a high YPC versus just "he will be good because he meets this measure ment"
