JohnnyU
Footballguy
1. Darren McFadden, Arkansas
Height/Weight: 6'1/211
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.33 forty, 33" vertical, 10.8' broad jump
Comparison: Marcus Allen
Draft Projection: Top 10
2007 Statistics: 325-1830-5.6-16 Tds, 21-164-7.8-1 Td
Positives: McFadden's size-speed combination is freakish and unrivaled. He has three years of exceptional production in the SEC on his resume. The Razorbacks' offensive line was not elite and regularly faced more talented front sevens. McFadden will be 20 when drafted and has a better shot at a 10-12 year career than most draft-eligible backs. His protections are considered sound and McFadden is relentless in all areas. He is a solid receiver, uses a fierce stiff arm, and has open-field moves that should be highly effective at the next level.
Negatives: McFadden must add leg strength. He carries minor durability concerns after playing his freshman year with torn knee cartilage and needing an offseason scope. McFadden's off-field decision making is suspect; he was involved in a parking lot brawl and PianoBarGate in college. He fumbled 23 times in three seasons, losing nine.
Verdict: McFadden has the passion and talent to be a great NFL player, but is unlikely to be a top-five pick due to off-the-field issues. The Jets at No. 6 appear to be the best landing spot for McFadden. He'd work well as a combo back with Thomas Jones to begin his career.
2. Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
Height/Weight: 5'10/225
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.45 forty, 26 X 225 lbs, 33" vertical, 4.18 short shuttle
Comparison: Ronnie Brown
Draft Projection: Top 15
2007 Statistics: 262-1681-6.4-17 Tds, 34-318-9.4-2 Tds
Positives: Mendenhall is thickly built with strong extremities. Despite relatively limited playing time (he had fewer than 130 career carries heading to 2007), Mendenhall hit 16 plays of 25+ yards at Illinois. The 2007 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, Mendenhall earned Academic All Conference honors and is an intelligent individual. He has terrific second-gear speed, is versatile, and a dual threat. There are no obvious weaknesses in his game.
Negatives: Mendenhall started only one year at U of I. He played in a spread-option offense that frequently ran plays from the gun. Prospects in that scheme can be harder to evaluate. Mendenhall probably won't get much bigger, and if he does, could lose speed and quickness.
Verdict: Mendenhall was sensational against USC in the Rose Bowl, running by, through, and around defenders that will play against him in the pros. Mendenhall has been especially impressive in pre-draft all star events, demonstrating a herculean build and timing well. He is only 20, but developed physically. Mendenhall is a far better all-around prospect than Marshawn Lynch, the No. 12 pick overall in 2007, and is nipping at McFadden's heels.
3. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon
Height/Weight: 5'10/235
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.48 forty, 28 X 225 lbs, 36" vertical, 10.8' broad jump
Comparison: Shaun Alexander
Draft Projection: Top 20
2007 Statistics: 280-1722-6.2-11 Tds, 22-145-6.6-2 Tds
Positives: Stewart has remarkable strength and can be a punisher. He has experience on special teams as a kick returner and was extremely productive in that role. Stewart has a quintessential power back body and is a balanced runner. He is a skilled receiver out of the backfield. Stewart is a workout warrior and set several weight room records at Oregon.
Negatives: Stewart can be too shifty. His 2007 touchdown total reflects that he needs to improve his red-zone efficiency. Stewart was actually more productive per touch in that area prior to 2007. He often dealt with minor, nagging injuries in college, but played through them.
Verdict: Among the top three backs in this draft, Stewart is arguably the most prepared to immediately be featured. He doesn't have the long-range upside of McFadden or Mendenhall, but may be the best fit in a power-based running offense. Stewart's work ethic among the draft's elite RBs stands out.
4. Ray Rice, Rutgers
Height/Weight: 5'8/200
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.44 forty, 23 X 225 lbs, 31" vertical, 4.20 short shuttle
Comparison: Frank Gore
Draft Projection: Second round
2007 Statistics: 380-2012-5.3-24 Tds, 25-239-9.6-1 Td
Positives: Despite his modest build, Rice is fearless in short yardage. He has a nose for the end zone and plays bigger than his size. Rice is a "gamer" who may not impress getting off the bus, but delivers on the field. He is an instinctive, patient runner with ideal experience as a three-year starter. Rice never missed a game in college and showed in 2007 (after Brian Leonard left) that he can handle every-down responsibilities.
Negatives: Rice won't run around or by many NFL defenders. He isn't as versatile as McFadden, Mendenhall, Stewart, or Matt Forte. Rice's offensive line dominated the Big East; as many as three members of the Scarlet Knights' 2007 unit will be drafted in April. He is considered raw as a route runner.
Verdict: Rice isn't necessarily a burner or a bruiser, but runs with heart like Frank Gore and displays a similar "football junkie" mentality. He will begin his NFL career as a backup, but is unlikely to fail when given an opportunity. Rice is a product of The Bronx.
5. Felix Jones, Arkansas
Height/Weight: 5'10/207
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.47 forty, 8 X 225 lbs, 33" vertical, 10.4' broad jump, 4.19 short shuttle
Comparison: Laurence Maroney
Draft Projection: Late first to early second round
2007 Statistics: 133-1162-8.7-11 Tds, 16-176-11.0-0 Tds
Positives: Jones is a highly elusive outside runner. He scored four times in three years as a kickoff returner and averaged 31.3 yards per KR as a junior. Having playing behind Darren McFadden since 2005, Jones' legs are fresh. He makes one cut and gets vertical in a hurry. Jones flashed soft hands, good route running, and homerun ability after the catch at Arkansas.
Negatives: Jones is inexperienced as an every-down back and is not developed physically. He is small and could be run over by blitzing linebackers and strong safeties in the pros. Jones is a gambler and can be streaky as a ball carrier.
Verdict: Jones measured in at the Combine two inches shorter than his college listing. While there's little means to guage how he might fare as a future starter, his lack of an ideal build to fill out is discouraging. It's not out of the question that he will be something more, but the odds favor Jones having a career as a complementary piece, not a lead back
6. Matt Forte, Tulane
Height/Weight: 6'1/221
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Combine Results: 4.46 forty, 23 X 225 lbs, 33" vertical, 4.23 short shuttle
Comparison: Sammy Morris
Draft Projection: Late second to early third round
2007 Statistics: 361-2127-5.9-23 Tds, 32-282-8.8-0 Tds
Positives/Negatives: Versatility is his defining trait. Rarely are pure power backs such natural pass catchers. Forte was a mainstay on Green Wave special teams units into his breakout senior campaign and is unselfish. A three-year starter, Forte is a patient inside runner with impressive strength. Forte ran a nice forty at the Combine, but is unlikely to consistently lose NFL linebackers or defensive backs. His 2006 season ended after eight games due to a knee injury, making durability a concern.
Verdict: After facing subpar competition in Conference USA, Forte showed at the Senior Bowl that he can excel against NFL-caliber players. He will attract power running teams that appreciate toughness and multifaceted skills. Forte is unlikely to be a capable starter as a rookie, but will help immediately in other ways and could evolve into a three-down back or valuable Sammy Morris-type fullback.
7. Chris Johnson, East Carolina
Height/Weight: 5'11/197
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Combine Results: 4.24 forty, 35" vertical, 10.1' broad jump
Comparison: Leon Washington
Draft Projection: Late second to mid-third round
2007 Statistics: 236-1423-6.0-17 Tds, 37-528-14.3-6 Tds
Positives/Negatives: From a straight-line standpoint, Johnson may be the fastest player in the NFL as a rookie. The four-year starter was used often as a slot receiver at ECU and catches the ball exceptionally well downfield. Few, if any, NFL defenders will tackle him from behind. A game breaking kick returner, Johnson led the nation in all-purpose yards per game as a senior (227.7). However, he had neck surgery in spring 2006 and missed a start that year with turf toe. He lacks good strength and is not an inside runner. Johnson is considered poor in pass protection and put the ball on the ground too much in college.
Verdict: He has a stringbean frame and isn't as elusive as Reggie Bush, who's failed as an every-down back in the pros. Johnson can be used in a number of ways, which increases his value, but is unlikely to ever be a full-time starter. Durability is a big concern. Johnson can be an explosive weapon, but his lack of ideal size and strength makes him no more than a change-of-pace/return prospect.
8. Jamaal Charles, Texas
Height/Weight: 5'11/200
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.38 forty, 30" vertical, 4.22 short shuttle
Comparison: Jerious Norwood
Draft Projection: Late second to mid-third round
2007 Statistics: 258-1619-6.3-18 Tds, 17-199-11.7-0 Tds
Positives/Negatives: Charles can be a dancer behind the line of scrimmage, especially in short-yardage situations. He had fumbling issues throughout his Longhorns career and they cost him a chance to start in 2006. Charles has elite, galloping speed and burst, but isn't a punisher. His lean frame and high running style can leave Charles susceptible to big hits. He was an All Academic Big 12 honoree, so intelligence isn't an issue.
Verdict: Charles gave up track and improved markedly as a junior, but there are question marks about his ball security, size, and staying power in the NFL after an up-and-down college career. Somewhat like Chris Henry in 2007, Charles appears to be a boom-or-bust prospect that may never see the field consistently if he puts the ball on the ground in practice as a pro.
9. Kevin Smith, Central Florida
Height/Weight: 6'1/217
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.43 forty, 32" vertical
Comparison: DeShaun Foster
Draft Projection: Late third to fourth round
2007 Statistics: 450-2567-5.7-29 Tds, 24-242-10.1-1 Td
Positives/Negatives: Smith led the nation in rushing as a junior. He finishes his runs and will stiff arm defenders. Smith is experienced in the passing game as a blocker and receiver. He has a long, strong frame with room to fill out. However, his number of 2007 carries is staggering and sends up a red flag. Smith had 30 or more in eight games and 40+ in four. He faced weak defenses in C-USA and was benched for a game in 2006 for disciplinary reasons.
Verdict: Smith has decent all-around measurables, but is a shifty back who sometimes runs too high. He may be just now coming into his own as a player, but his long-term upside is limited because of his average athleticism. Smith's NFL career may be shortened due to his startling overuse at UCF.
10. Jalen Parmele, Toledo
Height/Weight: 5'11/224
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Combine Results: 4.47 forty, 19 X 225 lbs, 34" vertical, 10.5' broad jump
Comparison: Ryan Grant
Draft Projection: Fourth to sixth round
2007 Statistics: 276-1511-5.5-14 Tds, 17-157-9.2-1 Td
Positives/Negatives: Parmele is an outstanding athlete. He has close to ideal size and speed. A two-time All-MAC first teamer, Parmele has a track background and returned kicks into his senior year, averaging 28 yards per return with a TD. Parmele has soft hands and is considered a balanced cutback runner with good vision. He is experienced in a spread offense that incorporated zone running. However, Parmele faced poor competition at Toledo and struggled to consistently make defenders miss at that level. He is not considered overly powerful or elusive.
Verdict: Parmele is a developmental back who could flourish in a one-cut system (i.e. Denver, Carolina, Green Bay, or Houston). He may not excel in a power running scheme, but because of his all-around tools and vertical speed, could emerge as the draft's premier sleeper if he lands in the right spot. Parmele will help initially on special teams, particularly on returns.
11. Justin Forsett, California
12. Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech
13. Anthony Alridge, Houston
14. Steve Slaton, West Virginia
15. Ryan Torain, Arizona State
Other RBs with a Good Shot to be Drafted: Thomas Brown (Georgia), Kalvin McRae (Ohio), Chauncey Washington (USC), Mike Hart (Michigan), Cory Boyd (South Carolina), Dantrell Savage (Oklahoma State), Allen Patrick (Oklahoma), Yvenson Bernard (Oregon State), Benjarvus Green-Ellis (Ole Miss), Jehuu Caulcrick (Michigan State), Rafael Little (Kentucky), Xavier Omon (NW Missouri St.), Tim Hightower (Richmond), Marcus Thomas (UTEP), Kregg Lumpkin (Georgia)
Height/Weight: 6'1/211
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.33 forty, 33" vertical, 10.8' broad jump
Comparison: Marcus Allen
Draft Projection: Top 10
2007 Statistics: 325-1830-5.6-16 Tds, 21-164-7.8-1 Td
Positives: McFadden's size-speed combination is freakish and unrivaled. He has three years of exceptional production in the SEC on his resume. The Razorbacks' offensive line was not elite and regularly faced more talented front sevens. McFadden will be 20 when drafted and has a better shot at a 10-12 year career than most draft-eligible backs. His protections are considered sound and McFadden is relentless in all areas. He is a solid receiver, uses a fierce stiff arm, and has open-field moves that should be highly effective at the next level.
Negatives: McFadden must add leg strength. He carries minor durability concerns after playing his freshman year with torn knee cartilage and needing an offseason scope. McFadden's off-field decision making is suspect; he was involved in a parking lot brawl and PianoBarGate in college. He fumbled 23 times in three seasons, losing nine.
Verdict: McFadden has the passion and talent to be a great NFL player, but is unlikely to be a top-five pick due to off-the-field issues. The Jets at No. 6 appear to be the best landing spot for McFadden. He'd work well as a combo back with Thomas Jones to begin his career.
2. Rashard Mendenhall, Illinois
Height/Weight: 5'10/225
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.45 forty, 26 X 225 lbs, 33" vertical, 4.18 short shuttle
Comparison: Ronnie Brown
Draft Projection: Top 15
2007 Statistics: 262-1681-6.4-17 Tds, 34-318-9.4-2 Tds
Positives: Mendenhall is thickly built with strong extremities. Despite relatively limited playing time (he had fewer than 130 career carries heading to 2007), Mendenhall hit 16 plays of 25+ yards at Illinois. The 2007 Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, Mendenhall earned Academic All Conference honors and is an intelligent individual. He has terrific second-gear speed, is versatile, and a dual threat. There are no obvious weaknesses in his game.
Negatives: Mendenhall started only one year at U of I. He played in a spread-option offense that frequently ran plays from the gun. Prospects in that scheme can be harder to evaluate. Mendenhall probably won't get much bigger, and if he does, could lose speed and quickness.
Verdict: Mendenhall was sensational against USC in the Rose Bowl, running by, through, and around defenders that will play against him in the pros. Mendenhall has been especially impressive in pre-draft all star events, demonstrating a herculean build and timing well. He is only 20, but developed physically. Mendenhall is a far better all-around prospect than Marshawn Lynch, the No. 12 pick overall in 2007, and is nipping at McFadden's heels.
3. Jonathan Stewart, Oregon
Height/Weight: 5'10/235
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.48 forty, 28 X 225 lbs, 36" vertical, 10.8' broad jump
Comparison: Shaun Alexander
Draft Projection: Top 20
2007 Statistics: 280-1722-6.2-11 Tds, 22-145-6.6-2 Tds
Positives: Stewart has remarkable strength and can be a punisher. He has experience on special teams as a kick returner and was extremely productive in that role. Stewart has a quintessential power back body and is a balanced runner. He is a skilled receiver out of the backfield. Stewart is a workout warrior and set several weight room records at Oregon.
Negatives: Stewart can be too shifty. His 2007 touchdown total reflects that he needs to improve his red-zone efficiency. Stewart was actually more productive per touch in that area prior to 2007. He often dealt with minor, nagging injuries in college, but played through them.
Verdict: Among the top three backs in this draft, Stewart is arguably the most prepared to immediately be featured. He doesn't have the long-range upside of McFadden or Mendenhall, but may be the best fit in a power-based running offense. Stewart's work ethic among the draft's elite RBs stands out.
4. Ray Rice, Rutgers
Height/Weight: 5'8/200
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.44 forty, 23 X 225 lbs, 31" vertical, 4.20 short shuttle
Comparison: Frank Gore
Draft Projection: Second round
2007 Statistics: 380-2012-5.3-24 Tds, 25-239-9.6-1 Td
Positives: Despite his modest build, Rice is fearless in short yardage. He has a nose for the end zone and plays bigger than his size. Rice is a "gamer" who may not impress getting off the bus, but delivers on the field. He is an instinctive, patient runner with ideal experience as a three-year starter. Rice never missed a game in college and showed in 2007 (after Brian Leonard left) that he can handle every-down responsibilities.
Negatives: Rice won't run around or by many NFL defenders. He isn't as versatile as McFadden, Mendenhall, Stewart, or Matt Forte. Rice's offensive line dominated the Big East; as many as three members of the Scarlet Knights' 2007 unit will be drafted in April. He is considered raw as a route runner.
Verdict: Rice isn't necessarily a burner or a bruiser, but runs with heart like Frank Gore and displays a similar "football junkie" mentality. He will begin his NFL career as a backup, but is unlikely to fail when given an opportunity. Rice is a product of The Bronx.
5. Felix Jones, Arkansas
Height/Weight: 5'10/207
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.47 forty, 8 X 225 lbs, 33" vertical, 10.4' broad jump, 4.19 short shuttle
Comparison: Laurence Maroney
Draft Projection: Late first to early second round
2007 Statistics: 133-1162-8.7-11 Tds, 16-176-11.0-0 Tds
Positives: Jones is a highly elusive outside runner. He scored four times in three years as a kickoff returner and averaged 31.3 yards per KR as a junior. Having playing behind Darren McFadden since 2005, Jones' legs are fresh. He makes one cut and gets vertical in a hurry. Jones flashed soft hands, good route running, and homerun ability after the catch at Arkansas.
Negatives: Jones is inexperienced as an every-down back and is not developed physically. He is small and could be run over by blitzing linebackers and strong safeties in the pros. Jones is a gambler and can be streaky as a ball carrier.
Verdict: Jones measured in at the Combine two inches shorter than his college listing. While there's little means to guage how he might fare as a future starter, his lack of an ideal build to fill out is discouraging. It's not out of the question that he will be something more, but the odds favor Jones having a career as a complementary piece, not a lead back
6. Matt Forte, Tulane
Height/Weight: 6'1/221
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Combine Results: 4.46 forty, 23 X 225 lbs, 33" vertical, 4.23 short shuttle
Comparison: Sammy Morris
Draft Projection: Late second to early third round
2007 Statistics: 361-2127-5.9-23 Tds, 32-282-8.8-0 Tds
Positives/Negatives: Versatility is his defining trait. Rarely are pure power backs such natural pass catchers. Forte was a mainstay on Green Wave special teams units into his breakout senior campaign and is unselfish. A three-year starter, Forte is a patient inside runner with impressive strength. Forte ran a nice forty at the Combine, but is unlikely to consistently lose NFL linebackers or defensive backs. His 2006 season ended after eight games due to a knee injury, making durability a concern.
Verdict: After facing subpar competition in Conference USA, Forte showed at the Senior Bowl that he can excel against NFL-caliber players. He will attract power running teams that appreciate toughness and multifaceted skills. Forte is unlikely to be a capable starter as a rookie, but will help immediately in other ways and could evolve into a three-down back or valuable Sammy Morris-type fullback.
7. Chris Johnson, East Carolina
Height/Weight: 5'11/197
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Combine Results: 4.24 forty, 35" vertical, 10.1' broad jump
Comparison: Leon Washington
Draft Projection: Late second to mid-third round
2007 Statistics: 236-1423-6.0-17 Tds, 37-528-14.3-6 Tds
Positives/Negatives: From a straight-line standpoint, Johnson may be the fastest player in the NFL as a rookie. The four-year starter was used often as a slot receiver at ECU and catches the ball exceptionally well downfield. Few, if any, NFL defenders will tackle him from behind. A game breaking kick returner, Johnson led the nation in all-purpose yards per game as a senior (227.7). However, he had neck surgery in spring 2006 and missed a start that year with turf toe. He lacks good strength and is not an inside runner. Johnson is considered poor in pass protection and put the ball on the ground too much in college.
Verdict: He has a stringbean frame and isn't as elusive as Reggie Bush, who's failed as an every-down back in the pros. Johnson can be used in a number of ways, which increases his value, but is unlikely to ever be a full-time starter. Durability is a big concern. Johnson can be an explosive weapon, but his lack of ideal size and strength makes him no more than a change-of-pace/return prospect.
8. Jamaal Charles, Texas
Height/Weight: 5'11/200
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.38 forty, 30" vertical, 4.22 short shuttle
Comparison: Jerious Norwood
Draft Projection: Late second to mid-third round
2007 Statistics: 258-1619-6.3-18 Tds, 17-199-11.7-0 Tds
Positives/Negatives: Charles can be a dancer behind the line of scrimmage, especially in short-yardage situations. He had fumbling issues throughout his Longhorns career and they cost him a chance to start in 2006. Charles has elite, galloping speed and burst, but isn't a punisher. His lean frame and high running style can leave Charles susceptible to big hits. He was an All Academic Big 12 honoree, so intelligence isn't an issue.
Verdict: Charles gave up track and improved markedly as a junior, but there are question marks about his ball security, size, and staying power in the NFL after an up-and-down college career. Somewhat like Chris Henry in 2007, Charles appears to be a boom-or-bust prospect that may never see the field consistently if he puts the ball on the ground in practice as a pro.
9. Kevin Smith, Central Florida
Height/Weight: 6'1/217
College Experience: Third-year junior
Combine Results: 4.43 forty, 32" vertical
Comparison: DeShaun Foster
Draft Projection: Late third to fourth round
2007 Statistics: 450-2567-5.7-29 Tds, 24-242-10.1-1 Td
Positives/Negatives: Smith led the nation in rushing as a junior. He finishes his runs and will stiff arm defenders. Smith is experienced in the passing game as a blocker and receiver. He has a long, strong frame with room to fill out. However, his number of 2007 carries is staggering and sends up a red flag. Smith had 30 or more in eight games and 40+ in four. He faced weak defenses in C-USA and was benched for a game in 2006 for disciplinary reasons.
Verdict: Smith has decent all-around measurables, but is a shifty back who sometimes runs too high. He may be just now coming into his own as a player, but his long-term upside is limited because of his average athleticism. Smith's NFL career may be shortened due to his startling overuse at UCF.
10. Jalen Parmele, Toledo
Height/Weight: 5'11/224
College Experience: Fourth-year senior
Combine Results: 4.47 forty, 19 X 225 lbs, 34" vertical, 10.5' broad jump
Comparison: Ryan Grant
Draft Projection: Fourth to sixth round
2007 Statistics: 276-1511-5.5-14 Tds, 17-157-9.2-1 Td
Positives/Negatives: Parmele is an outstanding athlete. He has close to ideal size and speed. A two-time All-MAC first teamer, Parmele has a track background and returned kicks into his senior year, averaging 28 yards per return with a TD. Parmele has soft hands and is considered a balanced cutback runner with good vision. He is experienced in a spread offense that incorporated zone running. However, Parmele faced poor competition at Toledo and struggled to consistently make defenders miss at that level. He is not considered overly powerful or elusive.
Verdict: Parmele is a developmental back who could flourish in a one-cut system (i.e. Denver, Carolina, Green Bay, or Houston). He may not excel in a power running scheme, but because of his all-around tools and vertical speed, could emerge as the draft's premier sleeper if he lands in the right spot. Parmele will help initially on special teams, particularly on returns.
11. Justin Forsett, California
12. Tashard Choice, Georgia Tech
13. Anthony Alridge, Houston
14. Steve Slaton, West Virginia
15. Ryan Torain, Arizona State
Other RBs with a Good Shot to be Drafted: Thomas Brown (Georgia), Kalvin McRae (Ohio), Chauncey Washington (USC), Mike Hart (Michigan), Cory Boyd (South Carolina), Dantrell Savage (Oklahoma State), Allen Patrick (Oklahoma), Yvenson Bernard (Oregon State), Benjarvus Green-Ellis (Ole Miss), Jehuu Caulcrick (Michigan State), Rafael Little (Kentucky), Xavier Omon (NW Missouri St.), Tim Hightower (Richmond), Marcus Thomas (UTEP), Kregg Lumpkin (Georgia)
