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Fairest method to draft an initial keeper/dynasty (1 Viewer)

Lash

Footballguy
((just kidding about the patent part ;) although as far as I know the supplemental draft special order was my creation!!! :goodposting: ) )

3D method

in an initial keeper or dynasty, have three separate drafts (3D) (i will use 12 team as example)

1) vet draft - serpentine (roll dice and choose order, slot 1 to 12)

2) rook draft - serpentine (REVERSE order of vet draft, slots 12 back to 1)

3) supplemental draft - linear - (in this order from vet draft slot 7,6,8,5,9,4,10,3,11,2,12,1)

NOTE: to make the supplemental draft MEAN something you must do a few things:

1) hold it immediately before season if your initial vet and rook drafts took place early summer OR after week 1 or 2 of the regular season if you drafted in late July/August.

2) keep your rookie draft number to a smaller than normal number of rounds (2 or 3) so there will be more surprise rooks in the supplemental draft (also vet can be shallow too which will add to the surprise vets in the supplemental draft also)

3) keep picking until everyone has passed (short timer taking no more than 2-3 days total)

This will allow for the dreaded middle pickers to have a bonus for picking middle in BOTH vet and rook drafts

NOTE2: another option for leagues that have waiver order, they can skip the supplemental draft and just set initial waiver order as same as the supplemental order above, works nearly the same way

let's take a look last year and see why i feel this is the fairest method:

slots 1 to 4 from the vet draft would (could) have yielded LJ, LT2, SAlex, and SJax

slots 1 to 4 from the rook draft could have yielded (Bush, Addai, Maroney, and one of the 3QBs or DeAngelo/LenDale)

slots 1 to 4 from the supplemental could have yielded (Mike Bell, Colston, Jennings, and Baskett or ODaniels ... OR even Cotchery, Berrian etc if your vet draft had a shallow number of rounds)

and this year:

slots 1 to 4 vet: LT, SJax, Gore, LJ (assuming non-holdout)

slots 1 to 4 rook: ADP, CJ2, Lynch, Russell/BJax

slots 1 to 4 supplemental: ?, ?, ?, ?

Pros and Cons

picking early in vet draft

PROS: huge benefit studly-safe-can't-miss-non-Madden-Curse RB pick with your first vet pick and a huge benefit on the 2nd/3rd rd turn

CONS: pick near last in rook AND supplemental drafts, can start a run in vet draft but can also get left out of one, player you pass on in vet draft will not make it back to you

picking early in rook

PROS: you can fill a weakness on your roster from the vet draft with a top stud prospect, in the vet draft you pick on the 1st/2nd turn

CONS: watch top vet prospects go before you even have a chance to pick, can start a run in vet draft but can also get left out of one, pick near last in supplemental draft, player you pass on in vet draft will not make it back to you

picking early in supplemental (or top of waiver order)

PROS: can take a wait-n-see approach watching training camp and know you have a shot at getting one of the surprises that pop up each year, can fill a roster weakness with a late developer, won't get left out of any runs in vet draft and player you pass on MAY have a better chance of making it back to you

CONS: you are in the dreaded middle in both vet and rook drafts, you have a higher chance of "missing" on your first round pick in BOTH vet and rook drafts

also, i think the fairness of this method goes up even more once the NFL defenses adjust to stopping these 25+ TD seasons by the top RBs trend that Holmes, SAlex, and LT2 have brought upon us recently (or they are all out of football :) )

i know having #1 overall is still HUGEly advantageous but just think back just a few short years to when 1500/15 was a monster year for the top few RBs ... LT has skewed fairness all by himself :)

anyone see a way this method can be tweaked even further for more equality? (other than not allowing LT to be on anyone's team :D )

p.s. Pasquino, if you thought the math for your article was hard on 3RR, 3RS, and DoubleSnake, try to run the math on this ;) ... i guess you could just assign values separately to where the rooks and supplementals would likely go if inside the vet draft

p.s.s i guess this could be used for redrafts but i imagine the Vet draft high spots would be more skewed favorably there with rook separate draft not meaning as much since they have not a long time to "grow" to help your squad

 

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