It has been a good 8, maybe, 10 years since I posted. Life got busy. I gave up the board for running. Lots of travel for work. Things happen. Through it all, though, I always continued to follow the best minds on the board ... who all now appear to work full-time ... good job ... and was tuned into fantasy football.
Knowing how compulsive, OCD and competitive I am I purposely stayed away from the DFS space but ... I finally signed up last year. I am trying to help a group of friends understand the space and these are more or less diary type information ... lumps taken ... what to do ... what not to do ... that I experienced last year.
A few things ... never play with more than you can afford to lose; have realistic expectations, as the professionals in this space are REALLY good; find ... pay for ... data sources, like FBG or Pro Foootball Focus or both. Opinion, everything you need to win is located between what is available here and Pro Football Focus.
Hey ... I am not the smartest guy and the intent here is to save one person ... maybe two ... from making some of the mistakes I did, while realizing what they are stepping into. If this blows, sorry. If it helps you, go win some money.
· 7 NFL head coaching changes along with those coaching staffs impacting offensive and defensive philosophies/schemes of respective teams. 21% change in available head coaches
· 256 players drafted in April. 224 picks along with 32 compensatory picks
· 307 UFA signed with 231 of those signings changing teams. 75% of all UFA have a new home
· 403 UFA remained unsigned
· NFL is comprised of 1, 856 total players. 53 on active rosters and 5 on practice squads. Removing the numbers associated with the 90 man roster for training camp and dealing strictly with active roster numbers, 12% of all UFA changed teams
· Every team also has at least a current 12% minimum change in roster due to the incoming rookie class (Some more or less depending on total numbers of players drafted)
Data, percentages, facts not necessarily related to things like YPC ... you are doing to need to get familiar with all facets of NFL data and understand where to find them. Most of what you need to get by is free, while what you really want will require a small investment. Side aside the cash and find a site that works for especially Pro Football Focus.
[SIZE=16pt]Quick Recap[/SIZE]
Last year’s journey started in Week 6 of the NFL season and ended in Week 17 with a success rate of 91% on Fan Duel. Money was won 11 of those 12 weeks. Let that register. Meanwhile, the playoffs broke even, as money was spread over multiple roster options on Saturday and Sunday games. Rough math still indicates an overall winning percentage of 73% for the season. Despite zero intellectual knowledge of daily fantasy sports (DFS); how to play; what contests to enter; why to enter them and proper bankroll management the season was successful but…
· Sustainable?
· What could be done differently and better?
· What is the learning opportunity?
[SIZE=16pt]In The Interest of Science[/SIZE]
Football was a success due to the time of year (Week 6 … more on that later) I entered the fray and relying upon 30 years of fantasy football playing experience. My first team in 1984 … Neil Lomax, Walter Payton, Freeman McNeil, Steve Largent, Roy Green and Kellen Winslow. Billy Sims had amassed over 1,000 and 5 TD in 8 games prior to putting his leg on backwards and was unfortunately replaced by McNeil. Sims was my guy. Unfortunate injury and ended his career. I finished second to a Dolphins fan that had Marino, Clayton and Duper. Still pisses me off. All these years later that is still my favorite drafted team. For historical context Marino’s 1984 season was the measuring stick until recent years. Brees broke the yardage mark. Then, Brady bested the TD mark and, well, Manning surpassed both in the same season. Enough nostalgia and history … back on task.
Was there luck involved with the 91% and 73%? I would argue no and could be talked into a little. I would say understanding the story of the season coupled with years of experience reduced the learning curve. However, those winning percentages are not sustainable. If they were, I would weigh 300; exclusively wear sweat suits; have much jewelry including Grillz and live in Vegas full-time.
I had no understanding of proper bankroll management and betting strategy. I had no idea of distributing my money across different types of contests … cash games versus guaranteed prize pool contests. I did not know what total percentage of my available cash to leverage each week and where. Despite that lack of knowledge I am filing winnings with my account. This was definitely lucky. Seriously, the squirrel I keep hearing about did in fact find more than a few acorns.
Now, if I am the first person to introduce the concept(s) of bankroll management and betting system to you, my guess is that you are an average to horrible gambler. Start paying attention.
So I knew what I knew … abnormal understanding and fascination of the nuisances of football and football statistics … and what I did not know … the mechanics of Fan Duel and or DFS play and wealth management. Prior to the start of this football season I wanted to be better prepared. And, thus, the experiment with DFS in the space of the NBA
I decided that I would take $50 and start playing NBA DFS on Fan Duel. I would allow myself $5 per day to play if/when I played and the goal was to reach $1, 000 in winnings. I would adhere to a strict bankroll management system. I started on January 19th and completed the season on April 18th.
· Without reaching more than $10 into the $50 total reserve the bankroll was at $2, 024 on April 18th
· Winning percentage of 71%
· Winnings buoyed by 4 different 1st place finishes in GPP contests. Those bets were either $1 or $2 and returned winnings of $450-$100. Best…1/1, 724 for $450 at $1
NBA DFS is not for a casual fan. It is hard-core hoop fan and professional DFS players. I had not followed the NBA in years. Right there with you on the results … how the blank did you do that?
First, I knew I lacked an understanding of NBA DFS. Forever intellectually curious, I started reading. Next, I found a few reliable data sources and learned how to read them and apply the findings. Third, I found a trusted teacher in a good friend that is very well educated in all things NBA and NBA DFS. I read anything and everything I could find on bankroll management and bankroll management within DFS. Then, I started following the league and watching the story. Hold that thought, though, as I want you to consider something, as we take a break in our programming …
I entered the NBA season at mid-point of the season. 6 month season and I started playing right in the middle. I entered the NFL season at Week 6. Told you we would revisit this. There is no coincidence that my winning percentage was higher, as compared to having started on Week 1. The story of each season … NFL or NBA … was fairly well written in Week 6 or mid-January. Starters, team philosophies, snap count, playing time, offensive utilization were all established. It was relatively easy to take information; process it and apply in the form of player selection and roster formation. There is a direct corollary between the time of year I started playing and the ability to make educated and better decisions more often than not. Not so easy to do that over the early season weeks. Keep that in the back of your mind, as it will come up again.
[SIZE=16pt]Bankroll Management[/SIZE]
I urge you to search gambling betting systems, gambling theories, daily fantasy sports bankroll management or some combination of those terms. Google is your friend here folks. The amount of material is exhausting and worth your while applying yourself.
In short you can within reason determine the amount of money you should place on a specific type of wager considering the odds; your historical winning percentage in similar contests and the total amount of money you have available to wager. That is a summation of the Kelley Criterion. Your search should quickly bring you to articles and tools associated with the Kelley Criterion.
The Kelley Criterion is not without fault and it is highly debated. Read the contrarian articles and reach your own conclusions. For my NBA experience I developed a daily limit through my own use of the Kelley Criterion. As my winning percentage went up, I adjusted accordingly. Having those parameters helped me each week understand for a period of “x” days I had “y” available to wager.
Unlike the 82 game NBA season the NFL is essentially 17 weeks. Discount the playoffs for this discussion. You need to do some reading here. You need to take what you have learned and tinker with the Kelley Formula or another system that will work for you. Understand your winning percentages inside of DFS or for those of you wagering on games (NFL or college) the same. Be honest. Measure that against the total cash you plan on having available for the 17 week season and establish a weekly baseline of funds available for your use. Then, understand the type of odds or contest you will be putting money into or against. Set parameters; trust the results and set a weekly budget. This is how you win money over an extended period of time.
My guess is that many of you opt for the Martingale betting system and, given that I know nobody reading this has unlimited cash, you are losing and or have a long history of losing. Simply put the method works by you doubling the bet until you win: double up to catch up … get healthy on Monday Night Football … sweating out the late night game of “random opponent” versus the University of Hawaii … about on point? Mathematically speaking, this only works if you have an unlimited amount of money to potentially lose before you finally win. The concepts of bankroll management were the most important things I learned through my NBA experiment. Get your proverbial stuff squared away here. Give this matter due diligence.
[SIZE=16pt]Types of Games & Weekly Distribution[/SIZE]
There are 2 distinct types of games in DFS. Cash games and guaranteed prize pools. Cash games are H2H; Double-Ups or 50/50. Either one of us wins the money (H2H) or half of us win the money. These present 2:1 odds and the greatest chance of winning. Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) is your large field contests with hundreds to thousands of entries that pay the top 10%-20% of the field.
· 80% of your weekly money should be placed into Cash games
· 20% of your weekly money should be placed into GPP contests
I followed exactly zero of that in football last year. Based on historical experiences I won money. I called upon what is a very sad to write … getting old … 30 years of fantasy football or NFL minutia to win. Bet whatever … wherever … and cashed big. I followed this 80/20 precisely with my NBA project, while having no real experience in the NBA fantasy or NBA DFS space, and I won. My thoughts are that what I did in the NBA is reality. Yes, the winnings percentages were high (71%) but I am familiar with fantasy sports; data; had a personal coach and stuck to a strict bankroll system. This is closer to reality than the NFL experience. Essentially it is a self-created ecosystem for your DFS and or gaming lifestyle. I cannot build it for you but I can provide some advice or insight. This was the second most important thing I learned.
As of now, you should be considering a wagering system that fits you; a budget for the 17 week season; a budget for each individual NFL week and the distribution of those funds between cash (80%) and GPP (20%) games. Whatever you come up with, if your goal is to win money, stick to it.
[SIZE=16pt]Slow-Start, Win More[/SIZE]
I have highlighted entering the NFL and NBA seasons at their respective 30% and 50% completed stages. Scientific findings … reason … logic … learned through 2 empirical instances. More money was won due to the time I entered football and I entered the NBA due to the static nature of the data/statistics available. Those were my findings. And I am suggesting … asking … getting a little parental with you building a budget and doing so with this in mind.
You should bet less over the first month to month and a half of the football season. Be that inside DFS or individual games wager less. There are many unsettled variables early in the season. As you establish your weekly allowance adjust down the first month and allocate that money for a later point in the year. I am still determining my weekly budget but I will fight the compulsive urge(s) and play anywhere from 30%-50% less money Weeks 1-4. History has proven it is the smart thing to do … at least brief history. Suggest you do the same.
Also, be aware that the salaries for players will be very easy to piece together early in the season. The algorithm used for setting salaries is using historical data and assumed expected data for the new season. Those salaries will change but I would suggest at a slower rate than Week 8 and later in the NFL season. Why?
If it is easier to put an all-star roster together and God forbid you win doing so, safe to say you are coming back the following week? Probably going to feel bullet proof and bet a little more than the week prior especially since the salaries are once again aligned and easy? And what happens if you lose that next week? Salaries are still simple to put together and, hey, you are going to double-up to catch up so no problem but you lose and guess what? There is now a few weeks of new statistics and the salaries will change and … suddenly …making it pretty to very hard for a novice to put a team together the week said novice REALLY needs a win. But, hell, this is pretty fun and everyone is doing it and surely I could not lose for a 4th straight week? As a result, the house wins and you lose in all your cash games and fail to produce in any GPP.
While it will be easier for the new to average player to create a roster and there stands to be a massive influx of such people, it will be that much easier for someone skilled to navigate those same simple salary matrices. NOTHING is in your favor the first month of the season if you are brand new to novice.
· Easier salaries benefit the new but the experienced much more so
· If training camp is the table of contents to the season, then the first month of the season is the prologue. Leading and secondary players are still being determined
· There will be a 1 month delta between salary algorithms and actual player performance. My opinion
· The novelty of the season and your excitement to place a wager clouds your overall judgment
In the words of Bill Burr … “your blank is a dreamer.” Use your grey matter and ignore the little guy in September and early October. No doubt he has taken you on many a fine expedition but this just is not his mission to lead. Have him sit this one out. Gradually increase the amount you play, as salaries stabilize based on the new statistics produced by the new league season.
Yeah ... yeah ... blah ... blah ... and not for everyone. But this is what I learned over my first few months in DFS. If this was helpful, let me know, as I have a little bit more written for the average guy that I do not mind posting.
Knowing how compulsive, OCD and competitive I am I purposely stayed away from the DFS space but ... I finally signed up last year. I am trying to help a group of friends understand the space and these are more or less diary type information ... lumps taken ... what to do ... what not to do ... that I experienced last year.
A few things ... never play with more than you can afford to lose; have realistic expectations, as the professionals in this space are REALLY good; find ... pay for ... data sources, like FBG or Pro Foootball Focus or both. Opinion, everything you need to win is located between what is available here and Pro Football Focus.
Hey ... I am not the smartest guy and the intent here is to save one person ... maybe two ... from making some of the mistakes I did, while realizing what they are stepping into. If this blows, sorry. If it helps you, go win some money.
· 7 NFL head coaching changes along with those coaching staffs impacting offensive and defensive philosophies/schemes of respective teams. 21% change in available head coaches
· 256 players drafted in April. 224 picks along with 32 compensatory picks
· 307 UFA signed with 231 of those signings changing teams. 75% of all UFA have a new home
· 403 UFA remained unsigned
· NFL is comprised of 1, 856 total players. 53 on active rosters and 5 on practice squads. Removing the numbers associated with the 90 man roster for training camp and dealing strictly with active roster numbers, 12% of all UFA changed teams
· Every team also has at least a current 12% minimum change in roster due to the incoming rookie class (Some more or less depending on total numbers of players drafted)
Data, percentages, facts not necessarily related to things like YPC ... you are doing to need to get familiar with all facets of NFL data and understand where to find them. Most of what you need to get by is free, while what you really want will require a small investment. Side aside the cash and find a site that works for especially Pro Football Focus.
[SIZE=16pt]Quick Recap[/SIZE]
Last year’s journey started in Week 6 of the NFL season and ended in Week 17 with a success rate of 91% on Fan Duel. Money was won 11 of those 12 weeks. Let that register. Meanwhile, the playoffs broke even, as money was spread over multiple roster options on Saturday and Sunday games. Rough math still indicates an overall winning percentage of 73% for the season. Despite zero intellectual knowledge of daily fantasy sports (DFS); how to play; what contests to enter; why to enter them and proper bankroll management the season was successful but…
· Sustainable?
· What could be done differently and better?
· What is the learning opportunity?
[SIZE=16pt]In The Interest of Science[/SIZE]
Football was a success due to the time of year (Week 6 … more on that later) I entered the fray and relying upon 30 years of fantasy football playing experience. My first team in 1984 … Neil Lomax, Walter Payton, Freeman McNeil, Steve Largent, Roy Green and Kellen Winslow. Billy Sims had amassed over 1,000 and 5 TD in 8 games prior to putting his leg on backwards and was unfortunately replaced by McNeil. Sims was my guy. Unfortunate injury and ended his career. I finished second to a Dolphins fan that had Marino, Clayton and Duper. Still pisses me off. All these years later that is still my favorite drafted team. For historical context Marino’s 1984 season was the measuring stick until recent years. Brees broke the yardage mark. Then, Brady bested the TD mark and, well, Manning surpassed both in the same season. Enough nostalgia and history … back on task.
Was there luck involved with the 91% and 73%? I would argue no and could be talked into a little. I would say understanding the story of the season coupled with years of experience reduced the learning curve. However, those winning percentages are not sustainable. If they were, I would weigh 300; exclusively wear sweat suits; have much jewelry including Grillz and live in Vegas full-time.
I had no understanding of proper bankroll management and betting strategy. I had no idea of distributing my money across different types of contests … cash games versus guaranteed prize pool contests. I did not know what total percentage of my available cash to leverage each week and where. Despite that lack of knowledge I am filing winnings with my account. This was definitely lucky. Seriously, the squirrel I keep hearing about did in fact find more than a few acorns.
Now, if I am the first person to introduce the concept(s) of bankroll management and betting system to you, my guess is that you are an average to horrible gambler. Start paying attention.
So I knew what I knew … abnormal understanding and fascination of the nuisances of football and football statistics … and what I did not know … the mechanics of Fan Duel and or DFS play and wealth management. Prior to the start of this football season I wanted to be better prepared. And, thus, the experiment with DFS in the space of the NBA
I decided that I would take $50 and start playing NBA DFS on Fan Duel. I would allow myself $5 per day to play if/when I played and the goal was to reach $1, 000 in winnings. I would adhere to a strict bankroll management system. I started on January 19th and completed the season on April 18th.
· Without reaching more than $10 into the $50 total reserve the bankroll was at $2, 024 on April 18th
· Winning percentage of 71%
· Winnings buoyed by 4 different 1st place finishes in GPP contests. Those bets were either $1 or $2 and returned winnings of $450-$100. Best…1/1, 724 for $450 at $1
NBA DFS is not for a casual fan. It is hard-core hoop fan and professional DFS players. I had not followed the NBA in years. Right there with you on the results … how the blank did you do that?
First, I knew I lacked an understanding of NBA DFS. Forever intellectually curious, I started reading. Next, I found a few reliable data sources and learned how to read them and apply the findings. Third, I found a trusted teacher in a good friend that is very well educated in all things NBA and NBA DFS. I read anything and everything I could find on bankroll management and bankroll management within DFS. Then, I started following the league and watching the story. Hold that thought, though, as I want you to consider something, as we take a break in our programming …
I entered the NBA season at mid-point of the season. 6 month season and I started playing right in the middle. I entered the NFL season at Week 6. Told you we would revisit this. There is no coincidence that my winning percentage was higher, as compared to having started on Week 1. The story of each season … NFL or NBA … was fairly well written in Week 6 or mid-January. Starters, team philosophies, snap count, playing time, offensive utilization were all established. It was relatively easy to take information; process it and apply in the form of player selection and roster formation. There is a direct corollary between the time of year I started playing and the ability to make educated and better decisions more often than not. Not so easy to do that over the early season weeks. Keep that in the back of your mind, as it will come up again.
[SIZE=16pt]Bankroll Management[/SIZE]
I urge you to search gambling betting systems, gambling theories, daily fantasy sports bankroll management or some combination of those terms. Google is your friend here folks. The amount of material is exhausting and worth your while applying yourself.
In short you can within reason determine the amount of money you should place on a specific type of wager considering the odds; your historical winning percentage in similar contests and the total amount of money you have available to wager. That is a summation of the Kelley Criterion. Your search should quickly bring you to articles and tools associated with the Kelley Criterion.
The Kelley Criterion is not without fault and it is highly debated. Read the contrarian articles and reach your own conclusions. For my NBA experience I developed a daily limit through my own use of the Kelley Criterion. As my winning percentage went up, I adjusted accordingly. Having those parameters helped me each week understand for a period of “x” days I had “y” available to wager.
Unlike the 82 game NBA season the NFL is essentially 17 weeks. Discount the playoffs for this discussion. You need to do some reading here. You need to take what you have learned and tinker with the Kelley Formula or another system that will work for you. Understand your winning percentages inside of DFS or for those of you wagering on games (NFL or college) the same. Be honest. Measure that against the total cash you plan on having available for the 17 week season and establish a weekly baseline of funds available for your use. Then, understand the type of odds or contest you will be putting money into or against. Set parameters; trust the results and set a weekly budget. This is how you win money over an extended period of time.
My guess is that many of you opt for the Martingale betting system and, given that I know nobody reading this has unlimited cash, you are losing and or have a long history of losing. Simply put the method works by you doubling the bet until you win: double up to catch up … get healthy on Monday Night Football … sweating out the late night game of “random opponent” versus the University of Hawaii … about on point? Mathematically speaking, this only works if you have an unlimited amount of money to potentially lose before you finally win. The concepts of bankroll management were the most important things I learned through my NBA experiment. Get your proverbial stuff squared away here. Give this matter due diligence.
[SIZE=16pt]Types of Games & Weekly Distribution[/SIZE]
There are 2 distinct types of games in DFS. Cash games and guaranteed prize pools. Cash games are H2H; Double-Ups or 50/50. Either one of us wins the money (H2H) or half of us win the money. These present 2:1 odds and the greatest chance of winning. Guaranteed Prize Pool (GPP) is your large field contests with hundreds to thousands of entries that pay the top 10%-20% of the field.
· 80% of your weekly money should be placed into Cash games
· 20% of your weekly money should be placed into GPP contests
I followed exactly zero of that in football last year. Based on historical experiences I won money. I called upon what is a very sad to write … getting old … 30 years of fantasy football or NFL minutia to win. Bet whatever … wherever … and cashed big. I followed this 80/20 precisely with my NBA project, while having no real experience in the NBA fantasy or NBA DFS space, and I won. My thoughts are that what I did in the NBA is reality. Yes, the winnings percentages were high (71%) but I am familiar with fantasy sports; data; had a personal coach and stuck to a strict bankroll system. This is closer to reality than the NFL experience. Essentially it is a self-created ecosystem for your DFS and or gaming lifestyle. I cannot build it for you but I can provide some advice or insight. This was the second most important thing I learned.
As of now, you should be considering a wagering system that fits you; a budget for the 17 week season; a budget for each individual NFL week and the distribution of those funds between cash (80%) and GPP (20%) games. Whatever you come up with, if your goal is to win money, stick to it.
[SIZE=16pt]Slow-Start, Win More[/SIZE]
I have highlighted entering the NFL and NBA seasons at their respective 30% and 50% completed stages. Scientific findings … reason … logic … learned through 2 empirical instances. More money was won due to the time I entered football and I entered the NBA due to the static nature of the data/statistics available. Those were my findings. And I am suggesting … asking … getting a little parental with you building a budget and doing so with this in mind.
You should bet less over the first month to month and a half of the football season. Be that inside DFS or individual games wager less. There are many unsettled variables early in the season. As you establish your weekly allowance adjust down the first month and allocate that money for a later point in the year. I am still determining my weekly budget but I will fight the compulsive urge(s) and play anywhere from 30%-50% less money Weeks 1-4. History has proven it is the smart thing to do … at least brief history. Suggest you do the same.
Also, be aware that the salaries for players will be very easy to piece together early in the season. The algorithm used for setting salaries is using historical data and assumed expected data for the new season. Those salaries will change but I would suggest at a slower rate than Week 8 and later in the NFL season. Why?
If it is easier to put an all-star roster together and God forbid you win doing so, safe to say you are coming back the following week? Probably going to feel bullet proof and bet a little more than the week prior especially since the salaries are once again aligned and easy? And what happens if you lose that next week? Salaries are still simple to put together and, hey, you are going to double-up to catch up so no problem but you lose and guess what? There is now a few weeks of new statistics and the salaries will change and … suddenly …making it pretty to very hard for a novice to put a team together the week said novice REALLY needs a win. But, hell, this is pretty fun and everyone is doing it and surely I could not lose for a 4th straight week? As a result, the house wins and you lose in all your cash games and fail to produce in any GPP.
While it will be easier for the new to average player to create a roster and there stands to be a massive influx of such people, it will be that much easier for someone skilled to navigate those same simple salary matrices. NOTHING is in your favor the first month of the season if you are brand new to novice.
· Easier salaries benefit the new but the experienced much more so
· If training camp is the table of contents to the season, then the first month of the season is the prologue. Leading and secondary players are still being determined
· There will be a 1 month delta between salary algorithms and actual player performance. My opinion
· The novelty of the season and your excitement to place a wager clouds your overall judgment
In the words of Bill Burr … “your blank is a dreamer.” Use your grey matter and ignore the little guy in September and early October. No doubt he has taken you on many a fine expedition but this just is not his mission to lead. Have him sit this one out. Gradually increase the amount you play, as salaries stabilize based on the new statistics produced by the new league season.
Yeah ... yeah ... blah ... blah ... and not for everyone. But this is what I learned over my first few months in DFS. If this was helpful, let me know, as I have a little bit more written for the average guy that I do not mind posting.
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