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Interesting idea.I could make one and make it into a brief article.
That would be awesome. I'm wondering if league size and type would have a bearing on how valuable a pick is. It would seem that the 12th pick in a 16 team league would be more valuable then the 12th pick in an 8 team league. The big difference between the nfl value chart and a fantasy football value chart is that all teams know about the nfl chart, but not every fantasy owner knows about the fantasy football value calculator. I hope you write that article, it would be great to get your take on it.Jeff Pasquino said:
I do this every year in our league...essentially I take projections, create VBD values, rank the players by value, apply an indexing function to the values and call them draft pick values...you could do the same thing with AVT values...It's especially interesting in our league because we have contract based keepers, so the "available" player values are not linear within the index...with it's VBD basis it helps quickly highlight value cliffs in the draft...jswalker1981 said:
Have you seen my signature?There's an article on it in there for Dynasty, but the concepts you raise (12 team vs. 16 team) are covered in the article to an extent.As for the chart - I'm assuming you mean redraft, so all I'd be doing is tablizing the results of the Dodds calculator.As for the value, of course a 3rd rounder in a 16 teamer < a 3rd in a 12 teamer. Just like Pick 27 (3.03 - 12 teams) is worth more than Pick 35 (3.03 - 16 teams).
Yea, I'm checking it out right now. One of my leagues is a redraft league, and another is a keeper (2-round rule) so I'm thinking that a redraft value chart should be fine, since you do have to give up draft picks in my keeper league, I can just adjust in my mind the value of a later pick if the ADP of a player I'm targeting is being picked near that pick.
Is it possible to make an 8 team league, or just let me know what to do to change it to make it an 8 team league? Thanks again for doing this.
Jeff, Nice job. Is it too much to ask if it can be in serpentine form? Just curious
Read the article or multiple discussions on this, but many / most believe you subtract one round (roughly) per year in advance.i.e. 2007 3rd = 2008 2nd = 2009 first.
Yes I can do that I guess.Any other requests?
Is there any tool that measures the value of present draft picks against future draft picks?(E.g. the 2007 2.01 is roughly equal to the 2008 ???)
very nice work, can you turn it so it's notsyawedis
the amount of value lost(drop) between picksDrops 12 then 11 then 11 again then 10....last two have the same value, 02nd to last round27,25,23,21,20,18,16,14,12. Minus 2 minus 2 minus 2 minus 1 minus 2...round 6 the drop between every pick is 9 except between 6.9 and 6.10 when it's 8round 4drops 13 then 12 then 13 then 12,12,11,11,12,10,9,9,10It's rounding somewhere in the formula I think
Anyone? This is an issue that comes up in dynasty leagues quite often
Can't be done. All you have for future value ('08) is the team that's associated with the pick and you have no clue as to how that team is gonna finish.DEN's first next year in exchange for PHI's first next year is a study in relativity, not in specifics. Draft value comparison...... comparing the known from this year to the relative for next year,......it can't be done.
Real looking forward to the 16 teamer to see if it has any relationship to the 32 teamer that the NFL uses....if so and how.
You do realize that it's value based on the pick. So, if you have the #12 & #13 pick....just look at 1.12 & 2.1.
I would say that can't be done because there is not a way to know how deep a rookie draft will be. Youcan guess by teh seniors coming out, but will never know if the juniors coming will make more RB's, WR's, QB's or what coming out. I think it's a gut feeling when it comes to that...but usually...if you want a 2nd this year, most want 2nd next year + another pick (this year or next) too.
Awesome, I can't wait! Thanks for all the work you've done.Jeff Pasquino said:
Besides, I'm not sure the values are right with this anyway. I mean there are only 47 pts difference between the 1.2 pick and the 1.9 pick. Call me crazy but I think for someone to move up 7 spots in the first rd, it should cost them more then a late rd pick.
You're using decimals. That's not how that is written.The picks have to be entered as "2" and "9".
That seems better, but your still only picking up pick 71 to even this out (end of 5th in 12 teamer and 7th rd in 10 teamer). I think the drop off between L. Johnson or S. Jackson and R. Brown or W. Parker is worth more than that.
This is a chart of numbers and points are open to interpretation. It just puts you in a ballpark of value.It's a tool - not a decision maker.
I understand that the realitive value of players is different and there are tier dropoffs in every rd. I'm not dogging what has been done here just pointing out that I don't think these point values work with fantasy football. Especially in dynasty leagues where after pick 3 this year for rookie drafts the value of players really drop off. In the NFL if you wanted to trade up 7 spots to pick 2 your lookng at a first and 2nd/3rd and probably a 1st next year to make that jump. Now thats not fiesable in FF, but there has to be some kind of happy medium.
Anyone know whether the article Jeff was talking about here ever got posted?!?Thanks!!!
Yes it did. 12, 14 and 16 teamers were done. I just submitted a 10-team version as it was requested several times.Third Round Reversal of Fortune
BumpThanks Jeff!Any idea when it will post?
Any idea when it will post?
